New Parliament, New Leaders?

[Edward Campbell]

...
Dion must go – but it’s not obvious that either Ignatieff or Rae have broad enough support in the Liberal Party to be the ‘leader’ who can unite the party and beat Harper in, say, 2010 or, maybe, even 2011. The Trudeau/Turner and Chrétien/Martin ‘wars’ still rage – and an Ignatieff vs. Rae, right vs. left war may be is the last thing the Liberals need. Several morning radio news reports suggested that John Manley might want to jump in, for a few years, to oversee the restoration of Liberal fortunes.

Caveat lector: I know John Manley; I like and respect him, too.

I think he could reunite the Liberals and aim them towards a more traditional liberal and Liberal space in the political spectrum. But: he’s old; not as old as either Ignatieff (born in 1947) or Rae (1948) but older than Harper (1959) or Jim Prentice (1956) in an era that positively worships youth. Bigger BUT: he might just be another St Laurent: someone Canadians actually ‘like’ (they ‘liked’ Mike Pearson and Jean Chrétien, too) but, generally, Canadian PMs (Diefenbaker, Trudeau, Mulroney and Harper) are not much liked, even when some Canadian adore them. St Laurent parlayed ‘like’ and good, solid administration into several years of Liberal power just when Canadians were truly sick and tired of the Liberals under Mackenzie King.

Now, there will be a faction in the Liberal Party of Canada that will want a new, English leader, who can serve for about five years, hopefully (for Liberals) winning a minority government in 2010/11 so that, in 2013/14 Justin Trudeau (born 1971) can perform well as a minister and then take over (from an ‘old’ leader) as leader/’saviour’. It’s more hope and dream than real ambition – for now. Ignatieff or Rae are the best choices for the Trudeaumaniacs.

But there are other contenders: Martha Hall Findlay (born 1959, same year as Harper), a ‘right’ wing Liberal, and Gerard Kennedy (born 1960), a ‘loony leftie,’ for example who would perpetuate the Trudeau/Turner and  Chrétien/Martin wars for another generation and frustrate the ambitions of the Trudeaumaniacs. ...

According to his morning’s papers pretty much everyone, maybe even including Celine Stéphane Dion agree that “Dion must go.”

But Lawrence Martin offers a broader look at all the leaders (not including Ms. May who is not, really, a Canadian political leader) in this article reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081015.wcomartin16/BNStory/politics/home

The forecast: Dion out by year's end, Harper before the next vote

LAWRENCE MARTIN

From Thursday's Globe and Mail
October 16, 2008 at 12:00 AM EDT

This was the election that shouldn't have been held, that attracted a dismal turnout, that didn't change anything – but could well change everything.

Stéphane Dion will be out as Liberal leader by year's end. Stephen Harper is likely to follow him before the next election. Jack Layton, despite having the best showing of any leader in Tuesday's vote, could well depart next year. And so could Gilles Duceppe.

The Liberals will move back to the political centre. The Tories will face some internal bitterness for having gone down on bended knee to woo Quebec and getting nothing in return for their fawning efforts. The Greens will sink more than swim because they are a single-issue party whose single issue has been overrun by apprehended economic perdition.

Mr. Harper will face no internal challenge for his leadership. Any time you increase your seat total by as much as he did, you have a respectable result. His challenge was to be seen knocking on the majority door and, by scoring more than 140 seats, he did just that.

But, by next year, the Liberals will have a new leader who will be much more popular than Mr. Dion. There is likely to be a deepening, American-induced recession. Circumstances for the Prime Minister will be twice as tough as they were in this campaign. Stephen Harper will take the hint, behold declining poll numbers, realize the Big Win isn't there, and step out gracefully – as a great builder of the party and as a winner. He won't make the mistake that so many do, hanging on for glory's last shot and falling in the process.

On Tuesday, despite all the factors working in his favour, he increased his party's popular vote by only 1 percentage point. He was running behind his party in popularity by the end of the campaign. He has had three election attempts. His best hope would have been for Mr. Dion to stay on, but he took away that possibility by inflicting so much damage on the Liberal captain. Now he is likely to face either Bob Rae or Michael Ignatieff, both of whom have more personal appeal and who are just as strong intellectually. There will be other challengers for the Liberal crown, but the Rae and Iggy machines are in place from the last race.

The tenacious Mr. Dion will be determined to stay on, but the party won't allow it. The Liberals simply cannot afford half a year of leadership wrangling before a review vote and then another half a year of it before a leadership convention.

Jack Layton's NDP increased its seat total by 20 per cent. But because he raised such high expectations with his talk of running for prime minister, the accomplishment will be less appreciated. Having taken three runs, he could very well, like Mr. Harper, decide to go out on a positive note.

When the House of Commons returns, it will be a smooth ride for the PM. Mr. Harper had a minority last time and ran the place like he had a landslide. It will be the same, perhaps even easier, for him now. Canadians won't want another election, having just had four in eight years.

The difficulty for Mr. Harper will be in coming up with a new Quebec strategy. Having done all that catering to the province – nation status and all – how much more can he be expected to do? Yes, he dropped the ball on a couple of Quebec files, but those mistakes hardly merited the inflammatory francophone reaction. The election result raises the question whether any non-Quebecker can win a large number of seats in that province.

If there's any consolation for the Liberals, the election brought more star power to the party. Justin Trudeau, Marc Garneau and Gerard Kennedy will add to an already formidable front bench.

The Conservatives, on the other hand, were unable to attract new star candidates. One-man governments tend not to do that. In his victory address, Mr. Harper spoke of a need for less partisanship. It was a welcome thought. But odds are, we won't see much change in his leadership style.

His divide-and-conquer strategy hasn't been a total success but enough to tide him over until the combination of hard times and a hard opponent convince him it's time to pass the blowtorch.

I think Martin might be on the right track.

In my opinion Harper is unlikely to be able to win a majority unless, miraculously, this government last for four years, and, during that time, the economy rebounds to something better than late spring 2008 levels (when the TSX was at an all time high). He might decide, over the next year or so that it is better to step aside and allow another, more charismatic (or at least less disliked) Conservative to lead the party to another term in office – Jim Prentice comes to mind as one likely leader, but it isn’t just the Conservatives who have, as Martin says, a “formidable front bench” – if one could use only the Conservative MPs from BC and Alberta one could build a very good cabinet.

Also, I think Martin is right about Layton. His challenge was to duplicate Ed Broadbent’s seat count (in a smaller parliament) and vote share: he failed. But he did better, twice, than Audrey McLaughlin and Alexa McDonough could manage so he can leave on a “high note” and make room for e.g. Judy Wasylycia-Leis (who I think is the ‘best’ NDP MP), Joe Comartin or Tom Mulcair.

 

[time expired]

Watched a report this morning on France 24,an English language news
station,on the Canadian election.A French Canadian reporter and the CBC
journalist in France,were interviewed by a French  TV reporter,the consensus
seemed to be that the Conservatives would stay in power for the foreseeable
future as the opposition parties have no money and will need time to rebuild after
their defeats.It was also mentioned that the Canadian public had quite enough
of elections for a while.It was also interesting to hear the Quebec reporter
refer to Harper supporter from the West as rednecks without a single word of
protest from the CBC guy,most enlightening.

                                          Regards

 

[Yrys]

La Presse, a french paper, made an article about Frank McKenna, who is seen as a good alternative
to another dividing war (Ignatieff vs. Rae) that scares liberals.

Des libéraux rêvent à Frank McKenna

 

[OldSolduer]

Rona Ambrose for MND!! (Kidding!!)

 

[The Bread Guy]

La Presse, a french paper, made an article about Frank McKenna, who is seen as a good alternative
to another dividing war (Ignatieff vs. Rae) that scares liberals.

Des libéraux rêvent à Frank McKenna

National Post saying the same here:

Frank McKenna, the former premier of New Brunswick, is said to be seriously considering a bid for the Liberal leadership should Stephane Dion step down.  "Frank still has the bug and is open to lobbying from some of Canada's most senior businessmen that the party needs him and the country needs him," said a Liberal source who is understood to have been in contact with the former Canadian ambassador to Washington ....

 

[OldSolduer]

Seriously now, I think McKenna would be deadly as a LIberal leader....he has charisma, charm and the political instincts. I like him and I'm not even a Liberal, nor would I ever be one.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Seriously now, I think McKenna would be deadly as a LIberal leader....he has charisma, charm and the political instincts. I like him and I'm not even a Liberal, nor would I ever be one.

Certainly would sort out the "most people could see him as a leader" thing...

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, is more on the manoeuvrings in the Liberal Party of Canada’s (not quite official, yet) leadership race:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081016.liberals17/BNStory/politics/home

Key Liberals send out feelers for Dion's job

MICHAEL VALPY

From Friday's Globe and Mail
October 17, 2008 at 12:08 AM EDT

Envoys for at least half a dozen prominent Liberals have begun making exploratory forays for cash and support for leadership bids as Stéphane Dion's tenure as head of the federal party slips closer to history's dustbin.

Mr. Dion had not made up his mind yesterday whether to step down or continue as leader. However, there were persistent reports he was moving toward resignation but that details – including what continued role he would play in the parliamentary caucus – still had to be worked out.

Meanwhile, people close to MPs Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae, Gerard Kennedy and Dominic LeBlanc, former deputy prime minister John Manley and former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna were contacting influential party members to test the waters.

An associate of Mr. Manley sent an e-mail to 40 people suggesting “coyly,” as one of the recipients put it, that Mr. Manley might be interested in the party leadership. Similar but even more low-key overtures were being made by associates of Mr. McKenna, although they emphasized that he was far removed from putting out feelers.

What representatives of would-be candidates made clear in conversations was their strong wish to avoid the optics of any indecent clamouring for Mr. Dion's job while he still occupies it.

After Tuesday's election results, showing the party to have received the smallest percentage of the popular vote in its modern history, Mr. Dion stayed out of sight as reports circulated in Ottawa that his staff were divided in their advice to him on what he should do – resign, hang on or announce he will step down immediately but be named interim leader until a successor is chosen.

There were rumours that leadership aspirants who might have scanty access to cash – Mr. Kennedy and neophyte MP Justin Trudeau, son of the former prime minister, were named – had been urging Mr. Dion to remain in the leader's job until they could have a run at raising enough money to be competitive entries in the race to succeed him.

“Money is driving everything,” a senior party member said yesterday.

While it would benefit candidates with limited resources if a leadership campaign could be delayed, sources close to Mr. Dion categorically denied the reports, and Mr. Kennedy said there was “no truth at all to that idea.”

If Mr. Dion steps down now, and next May's scheduled leadership review is turned into a full-blown leadership convention, the serious aspirants for Mr. Dion's job would have to enter the new year with about $2-million either borrowed or pledged.

The party's coffers are empty – and, indeed, the need for an effective new fundraising mechanism is the Liberals' most pressing problem after their leadership difficulties.

Leading contenders such as Mr. Rae and Mr. Ignatieff have just finished paying off the cost of their candidacies in the 2006 leadership campaign that Mr. Dion won. Mr. Kennedy still has debts from that race.

Mr. Manley assembled a leadership team in 2003 to challenge former prime minister Paul Martin for the party's leadership, but called it quits when he concluded he had no hope of victory.

His financial backers and fundraisers for the most part are now in the Ignatieff camp. Some influential party members who worked for him in 2003 felt he didn't show gratitude for their efforts or maintain a network of support. He also alienated people in the party by accepting a commission from Prime Minister Stephen Harper to head a panel advising the government on Canada's role in Afghanistan.

Mr. McKenna, now deputy chairman of the Toronto-Dominion Bank and a former ambassador to Washington, is believed to have no money worries should he choose to enter the race.

But he personally has given no signal that he is interested, and the betting among party insiders is that he will do what he did in the run-up to the 2006 convention: enjoy having his name mentioned but stay out of the contest.

The parliamentary caucus is about evenly divided in its support for Mr. Ignatieff and Mr. Rae, who came second and third, respectively, after Mr. Dion in 2006. But a significant chunk of MPs – so-called soft supporters of the two men – fear a party cleavage in an Ignatieff-Rae contest and would be open to a third candidate.

With a report from Jane Taber in Ottawa

I see the aspirants in three groups:

• The trusted outsiders: including Manley and McKenna, if he (McKenna) is even interested, These would be seen as re-builders;

• The current leaders: e.g. Hall-Findlay, Ignatieff and Rae; and

• The too young guard: especially, Kennedy and Trudeau.

It seems to me that:

• Selecting any of the “current leaders” will just perpetuate the Trudeau/Turner and Chrétien/Martin wars – that’s the last thing the Liberals need;

• The “young guard” are not sufficiently centrist – although we know exactly nothing about young M. Trudeau’s political philosophy – which also bodes ill for the Liberals. The political left is already overcrowded in Canada, the Liberals are going nowhere until they move back to the centre; thus

• The Liberals ought to pick one of the “trusted outsiders” – a list that might also include Brian Tobin and Bill Graham.

 

[GAP]

I think, when the dust has settled, the Liberals will pick a "do no harm" leader....

They are in desperate need of rebuilding and that is a multi-year task. Whomever they pick the Conservatives will try to pigeon hole almost immediately, as they did with Dion.

 

[geo]

Manley OR McKenna..... interesting alternatives - in spite of no declared leadership race.....
Stephane Dion should recognize his defeat & do as his predecessor Paul Martin did..... step down!

 

[Greymatters]

It was also interesting to hear the Quebec reporter refer to Harper supporter from the West as rednecks... 

I'm actually Ok with that...

Back to topic, I'm surprised how many people out here in the West were willing to vote non-Conservative, not because there was a better candidate from another party, but simply 'to keep the Conservatives from getting a majority'...

 

[Old Sweat]

The Liberal party is faced with some harsh realities, whether the members wish to acknowledge them or not.

First, the Liberals are essentially isolated in two large cities with the barbarians moving their siege lines up to the walls. Take away, especially, the Toronto MPs and the party is reduced in numbers to NDP status.

Second, despite what the president of the Thornhill federal Liberal riding association wrote in a letter in today's National Post, a simple move to the centre will not restore them to the status of what he called the natural governing party. In my opinion the party has lost touch with the mainly decent, hardworking and honest people than were its grassroots base. In round figures the Liberals in my riding saw their vote plummet from 17,000 in 2004 to 13,000 in 2006 and 8,000 in 2008. The CPC and NDP both saw their vote grow in the same three elections.

Third, and the lash marks are beginning to overlap on the dead horse, the party faces an uncertain financial future. An interim leader might gain them time to reorganize, but will he or she be able to attract the grassroots donations of 50 or 100 bucks from many tens of thousands of supporters to pay off the debts, run the day to day operations and fill the war chest? If the party decides to regain power in the next election under the leadership of a heavy hitter, and the bids fails, then what? Will the grassroots be inclined to keep pumping money into a failing enterprise? The Tories and the Dippers were, but this is something unknown to the Grits.

And as a gee whizz, will the young, politically ambitious types in high school and university wish to trust their ambitions to what is seen as a moribund enterprise?

 

[geo]

Let's not forget that the mean Blue conservative machine that Brian Mulroney had, was blown to smitherines.
Today's conservative party draws it's roots from the Canadian Reform Alliance Party that Preston & Stockwell built.

If the Liberals self destruct.... someone will take it's place.  If it happens - it happens

 

[dapaterson]

It seems to me that:

• Selecting any of the “current leaders” will just perpetuate the Trudeau/Turner and Chrétien/Martin wars – that’s the last thing the Liberals need;

• The “young guard” are not sufficiently centrist – although we know exactly nothing about young M. Trudeau’s political philosophy – which also bodes ill for the Liberals. The political left is already overcrowded in Canada, the Liberals are going nowhere until they move back to the centre; thus

• The Liberals ought to pick one of the “trusted outsiders” – a list that might also include Brian Tobin and Bill Graham.

Graham's past will disqualify him - whispers can be deadly in Ottawa, and he knows that there are sufficient skeletons in his closet to preclude his effective functioning as leader.

A decent man, but the chattering classes would have a field day.


Geo:

The current Tories took on a significant amount of support from the old PCs - their reduction to a rump of 2 seats under Campbell was not representatitve of their popular vote.  I'll try to dig out an essay I wrote that the Montreal Gazette accepted for publication, then never ran, after Jean Charest brought the party back - it was essentially an elegy for the PC party, knowing they were done for.

 

[Old Sweat]

As dapaterson noted, the PCs did not disappear into thin air. Most merged with the Alliance into the CPC, and time (and the prospect of power) healed the wounds. Others went to the Liberals and a tiny rump became the Progressive Canadians party or PCs.

This could also happen to the Liberals with the centrists joining the Tories in time and the left gravitating to the NDP. There would be some, indeed many, who would hang onto the old name and traditions and slowly wither away. Thus we might, I say again, might see strengthened CPC and NDP parties with a fading Liberal presence. What this would do to the NDP is anyone's guess. Does the party moderate in an attempt to gain power, or does it go through another schism as it did in the seventies with the Waffle movement flying off from an organization it considered too moderate and mainstream?

Maybe some will take a leaf from the CF's playbook, you know the one that reads, "if in doubt, form another headquarters," and a new political movement will arise.

 

[a_majoor]

• The “young guard” are not sufficiently centrist – although we know exactly nothing about young M. Trudeau’s political philosophy – which also bodes ill for the Liberals. The political left is already overcrowded in Canada, the Liberals are going nowhere until they move back to the centre;

Actually, the Young Dauphin made a speech in Windsor which atacked capitalism, and the plodding speech I attended was also full of socialist nostrums. If I were to guess at his political philosophies, I suspect they are heavily influenced by Uncle Fidel. We should also remember the late departed "Sun King" was also a socialist, only moving to the Liberal Party as an expedient means of achieving power. (Bob Rae also would fit in that category).

As for the future of the Liberal Party, it seems clear to me that the idea of a brokerage party has finally reached its expiry date. If you want socialism, there are real socialist parties to vote for (NDP, BQ and Greens all espouse various forms of "social democratic" platforms). The business wing of the Liberal party will see the CPC as the vehicle to achieve their goals. Environmentalists will gravitate to the Greens and so on. Many of Canada's minor parties might also see a small increase in support as the Liberals disintigrate. The brand name might still have some value; a center left "Liberal-Democrat" party would be viable, but I suspect the hard core "Progressives" will split from that party and reform under a new name. (Social Democratic Party of Canada?).

Reality will take some time to sink in, so I expect the Liberal Party will still be around to contest several more elections before the lights go out.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Actually, the Young Dauphin made a speech in Windsor which atacked capitalism, and the plodding speech I attended was also full of socialist nostrums. If I were to guess at his political philosophies, I suspect they are heavily influenced by Uncle Fidel. We should also remember the late departed "Sun King" was also a socialist, only moving to the Liberal Party as an expedient means of achieving power.
...

Very true, he was also part of the Kennedy team that moved to give Dion the leadership - so that puts him on the left wing of the Liberal Party: the wrong wing according to some Liberals.

The traditional myth is that the Liberals "campaign left and govern right" - and that was true of King, St Laurent, Pearson and Chrétien – but it was not true of Trudeau and would not, I suspect be true of Dion or Kennedy or Trudeau.

Canadians cannot complain overly much about St Laurent or Chrétien (Pearson did nothing, much, having had nothing but minorities) and King did both some good and some ill, but, as lawyer-poet F.R. Scott memorably said he (King) “never did anything by halves that could be done by quarters” and Canadians have good reason to wish that we had a bolder leader waaaaaay back when.

The Liberals will need to vacate the left, leaving the NDP and Greens to scrap over the scraps, and move back to the centre, before the Tories get a firm grip on it, if they want to get back into power any time soon.

I think Bob Rae is, by now, probably a bona fide ‘centrist’ – but he still carries a lot of left wing baggage from his days in the NDP. Despite my admiration for the message* Ignatieff brought to the Liberals I doubt that he has a deeply held economic philosophy. I think he, like Trudeau, is what Berlin described as a hedgehog (after Archilochus) – he has “one big idea” whereas a good politician ought to be a fox – with many ideas about a wide range of issues.

As a true blue Conservative, I hope the Liberals use their hearts rather than their heads and stay on the left. As a Canadian, who values the Liberal Party of Canada as a great national institution, I hope they finally, after over 40 years, get their act together and move back to and stay back in the political centre – where both parties belong.


----------
See: http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/27392/post-177428.html#msg177428

 

[Edward Campbell]

As those who follow the letters to the editor and on-line comments will know most active readers of the Globe and Mail are on the political left.

Here, from the Good Grey Globe’s web site is the readers’ highly unscientific expression of preference for Liberal Leader:

• Martha Hall Findaly: 4%
• Michael Ignatieff: 22%
• Gerard Kennedy: 8%
• Dominic LeBlanc: 1%
• John Manley: 11%
• Frank McKenna: 25%
• Bob Rae: 15%
• Justin Trudeau: 14%

 

[GAP]

Bob Rae: 15%


Hmm....doesn't bode well for Bob Rae off the hop...

Michael Ignatieff: 22%
Frank McKenna: 25%

I think, if I remember correctly, McKenna will make mincemeat out of the debating/political skills of Michael Ignatieff. Ignatieff has been running against the B team so long, he thinks they are the standard....

 

[The Bread Guy]

Latest on "Is Dion on the ramp?"

Canadian Press:  "Dion expected to call it quits Monday"

National Post:  "Dion to signal leadership plans Monday"

Toronto Star:  "Dion to speak Monday"

Countdown to the news conference here....