Liberal Minority Government 2019 - ????

[Jarnhamar]

So you are of the belief that in 66 ridings that have a population density of 2500/km² going to the Bloc, the NDP, the Liberals, and none to the CPC is that Trudeau is the leader?

Absolutely.

Much better theory than Hurr durr, Trudeau has nice hair people enamored.

I don't think so.

Don’t forget, they had one from 2015-19.

True but now they really have an appreciation for just how much they can get away with.

 

[blacktriangle]

Ultimately, if Canadians want to elect a Liberal government, they should. That's the whole point of our democracy, isn't it? It would just be nice if that Liberal government could bring Canadians a little more transparency, with a little less corruption and double standards. And not destroy our economy or turn us into Venezuela while they're at it.

It doesn't seem like most Canadians want a Conservative government. Fair enough. I just wish Canadians could find a way to ask for a better Liberal one. That, to me, is the real problem.

 

[Altair]

Absolutely.

Why would people vote bloc and NDP because of Trudeau?

I don't think so.

You can hate on Trudeau all you want, but they only won 54 of the 66 ridings with 2500/km² population density. You cannot explain the other 12. Going down another 10 ridings, the CPC are in 4 close races, those 4 being in the two Alberta Urban areas, so 76 ridings, the break down is 8 LPC, 1 NDP, and 1 CPC, according to the polls. So 76 of the most urban ridings in Canada, 62 LPC, 12 NDP, 1 Bloc, and then at 76 you get your first safe CPC seat, Richmond Center.

There is more going on here than Trudeau, this is the CPC failing at being competative in urban Canada and having 8 out 10 Canadians living in a urban municipalities.

 

[Altair]

Ultimately, if Canadians want to elect a Liberal government, they should. That's the whole point of our democracy, isn't it? It would just be nice if that Liberal government could bring Canadians a little more transparency, with a little less corruption and double standards. And not destroy our economy or turn us into Venezuela while they're at it.

It doesn't seem like most Canadians want a Conservative government. Fair enough. I just wish Canadians could find a way to ask for a better Liberal one. That, to me, is the real problem.

The real problem is the Conservatives not providing a viable alternative.

Lets face facts, the LPC doesn't need to be particularly competent, particularly innovative, transparent, or anything else we associate with good government if they know that they get reelected regardless because the CPC just doesn't have a path to victory. Its human nature, you see it in sports, you see it in monopolies. Once someone is so far ahead of the game with little competition they just start to coast and bad habits set in.

The only thing keeping the LPC on their toes these days is the NDP finding programs that are popular to the public and not scary enough to turn them off. And the LPC seem to just use the NDP as a think tank and steal said ideas.

That's it. The CPC need to figure out how to become competitive again, and not just hand 20 percent of the ridings in Canada away to everyone but them. Until then the LPC can just coast along.

 

[suffolkowner]

The Conservatives really need to find a way to appeal to a greater selection of the population for the health of our democracy in my opinion. It even get worse if more NDP support bleeds to the Liberals.
I don't really understand the Liberal/Conservative:Urban/Rural divide as I've been rural all my life but then I don't describe myself as a Liberal or Conservative supporter

 

[Jarnhamar]

It doesn't seem like most Canadians want a Conservative government.

If you're looking at votes per party the conservatives beat out the liberals but a couple hundred thousand votes.

Bigger picture it's a 3+1 vs 1.

 

[Altair]

The Conservatives really need to find a way to appeal to a greater selection of the population for the health of our democracy in my opinion. It even get worse if more NDP support bleeds to the Liberals.
I don't really understand the Liberal/Conservative:Urban/Rural divide as I've been rural all my life but then I don't describe myself as a Liberal or Conservative supporter

Some issues play out differently depending on where you live.

Gun control for example. Gun control plays well in urban areas spooked by drive bys, gang hits, street crime. It plays poorly in rural places where people use guns for hunting and personal protection. The CPC has a bulk of its MPs from Rural ridings, and in the interest of representing their constituents they blast any effort of gun control, maybe not understanding that this plays poorly in the cities.

Environment is another. In the big cities, where there is broad based support for climate policies, because those economies are not as tied to natural resources or agriculture are rural Canada, things like a carbon tax play well. In rural Canada where carbon emissions may simply be a cost of doing business, it plays poorly. So you have the CPC blasting the carbon tax, and putting forward flimsy climate plans in their place, and this plays poorly in Urban Canada.

Pipelines, CPC wants pipelines built everywhere in Canada. This helps oil producing rural Canada. Urban Canada does not care for that, they don't want it. Yet you have the CPC out there banging the drum for pipelines.

On almost every wedge issue, the CPC comes out in support of rural Canada, but Rural Canada is largely 2 out of 10 Canadians, Urban Canada is 8 out of 10.

So no matter which way you slice it, there are not enough rural Canadians for the CPC to win, and even split 2 ways between the NDP and LPC, the LPC has enough to win.

Then add in demographics and the situation gets even more dire for the CPC. Only 22 percent of Canadian women would consider voting for the CPC, compared to 40 percent for the LPC and 25 percent for the NDP. I do not know the reasons for this, but I think the angry white male thing the CPC has going on doesn't exactly play well with women.

But I am damned if I know what the CPC needs to do to correct this. Do they advocate for more gun control? Do they come out with a aggressive form of their own carbon tax? Do they disown pipelines? If they do this, at what point does the right wing of the CPC break off? At what point do they become a weird slightly more conservative version of the Liberals?

I don't know the answer, but what I do know is that the current approach isn't working. We shall see what the election brings, and if it is a LPC majority or near majority for 4 years, if the LPC gathers enough baggage to bring about a need for change. Even then, the CPC needs a better strategy than just waiting aboot until the LPC are unpopular enough that their supporters stay home or go NDP/Green in enough numbers to allow them the win the vote split.

 

[Good2Golf]

The real problem is the Conservatives not providing a viable alternative.

Lets face facts, the LPC doesn't need to be particularly competent, particularly innovative, transparent, or anything else we associate with good government if they know that they get reelected regardless because the CPC just doesn't have a path to victory.

Incompetency or failure of the CPC to understand anything other than it’s own bickering tribes in no way absolves the LPC from providing Canadians with the best government they can. Just because the PM can deflect multiple ethical violations like he is coated in Teflon, or the government get away with a shadowed, non-transparent governance, doesn’t mean they should…or at least they shouldn’t have the gall to claim they are the most ethically principled and transparent government in ages.

$0.02

That's it. The CPC need to figure out how to become competitive again, and not just hand 20 percent of the ridings in Canada away to everyone but them. Until then the LPC can just coast along.

Coasting may be their pragmatic choice, but Canadians deserve better!

 

[suffolkowner]

Draw a line a long the French river in Ontario and carry it through Quebec and that plus the Maritimes can be one Canada and the rest can be new Canada

 

[Altair]

Incompetency or failure of the CPC to understand anything other than it’s own bickering tribes in no way absolves the LPC from providing Canadians with the best government they can. Just because the PM can deflect multiple ethical violations like he is coated in Teflon, or the government get away with a shadowed, non-transparent governance, doesn’t mean they should…or at least they shouldn’t have the gall to claim they are the most ethically principled and transparent government in ages.

$0.02

You're right of course.

Coasting may be their pragmatic choice, but Canadians deserve better!

Agreed.

 

[Altair]

Draw a line a long the French river in Ontario and carry it through Quebec and that plus the Maritimes can be one Canada and the rest can be new Canada

I always laugh at this, because BC doesn't seem to like being lumped in with Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The biggest opponent to pipelines going to the pacific seems to be British Columbia, no?

 

[suffolkowner]

I always laugh at this, because BC doesn't seem to like being lumped in with Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The biggest opponent to pipelines going to the pacific seems to be British Columbia, no?

To certain extent yes but again it depends on what part I think. The BC I know doesn't have a problem with pipelines. Give Vancouver to the states and will see if it changes anything. The problem isn't necessarily of 80% of the population making the rules for all its the 80% of the country in 20% of the area making the rules for the other 80% of the area when the don't care to understand or suffer the consequences.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I always laugh at this, because BC doesn't seem to like being lumped in with Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The biggest opponent to pipelines going to the pacific seems to be British Columbia, no?

Just the Lower Mainland, resource projects is what keeps BC alive and jobs for the smaller communities and First Nations.

Celebrating a milestone: Completion of the Murray River Horizontal Directional Drill sets TC Energy record

Approximately 670 kilometres in length, the Coastal GasLink pipeline will safely deliver natural gas from the Dawson Creek area to the LNG Canada facility near Kitimat, B.C.

www.coastalgaslink.com

 

[Altair]

To certain extent yes but again it depends on what part I think. The BC I know doesn't have a problem with pipelines. Give Vancouver to the states and will see if it changes anything. The problem isn't necessarily of 80% of the population making the rules for all its the 80% of the country in 20% of the area making the rules for the other 80% of the area when the don't care to understand or suffer the consequences.

Just the Lower Mainland, resource projects is what keeps BC alive and jobs for the smaller communities and First Nations.

Celebrating a milestone: Completion of the Murray River Horizontal Directional Drill sets TC Energy record

Approximately 670 kilometres in length, the Coastal GasLink pipeline will safely deliver natural gas from the Dawson Creek area to the LNG Canada facility near Kitimat, B.C.

www.coastalgaslink.com

Hmmm.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/british-columbia/2020/results/

NDP 57 seats, 899,365 votes

Liberals (Conservatives really, and even they are so so on pipelines) 28 seats, 636,726 votes

Greens 2 seats, 284,312 votes.

So the anti pipeline parties have 59 seats out of 87 seats, and 1,183,677 out of 1,820,403 voters.

So....no.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The biggest opponent to pipelines going to the pacific seems to be British Columbia, no?

Not exactly. Coastal British Columbians like just enough pipeline capacity to meet their own needs.

 

[suffolkowner]

But 17CON-11LIB-11NDP-2GRN-1 in the last in the last federal election with a super bad conservative leader and still 34%. BC politics is probably the last place one would make bets on

 

[Good2Golf]

Not exactly. Coastal British Columbians like just enough pipeline capacity to meet their own needs.

Yet they don’t mind complaining about high gas prices when they don’t get the flow rate right….

 

[Altair]

But 17CON-11LIB-11NDP-2GRN-1 in the last in the last federal election with a super bad conservative leader and still 34%. BC politics is probably the last place one would make bets on

17 to 25. That's a bet I would make.

34 to 66. That's a bet I would make.

This whole lets make a new Canada out west thing, or Alberta separating, its all suffering from one sad fact. BC is more left leaning than right, and the 66/34 split, that 25/17 split, that 59/28 split is always going to make sure that BC west coast is more akin to the Quebec City to Windsor corridor than the Edmonton/Calgary to Thunder Bay expanse.

Make a new Canada out of Alberta Saskatchewan and Manitoba? Fine. BC isn't going along with it, still landlocked, still have no pipelines to tidewater, and now you have hostile neighbors on both sides of you, and a USA that depending on which party is in power, isn't going to be allowing things such as pipelines. And if you thought getting pipelines was hard from within confederation, good luck from outside.

Good job west, you done screwed yourself.

That's why I laugh whenever I hear that brought up. Quebec at least has access to the Atlantic.

 

[suffolkowner]

Its not the west though its just as much a urban/rural divide which you yourself has defined. I know lots of people in Ontario that would give the 401 corridor up. BC is 70% Cons by area and 95% is Skeena-Buckley flipped. So you can add 70% of Ontario and 70% of BC to the new Canada. If the prairies were a separate country the pipeline equation would change to as now the ROC would be denying a country access. The US gets away with it with Canada because there is no pushback but theres no way that would fly between a Prairie/New Canada vs Old Canada dispute

 

[Altair]

Its not the west though its just as much a urban/rural divide which you yourself has defined. I know lots of people in Ontario that would give the 401 corridor up. BC is 70% Cons by area and 95% is Skeena-Buckley flipped. So you can add 70% of Ontario and 70% of BC to the new Canada. If the prairies were a separate country the pipeline equation would change to as now the ROC would be denying a country access. The US gets away with it with Canada because there is no pushback but theres no way that would fly between a Prairie/New Canada vs Old Canada dispute

Except that's now how things work, is it?

Rural Quebec would have gone for separation in 95 and Urban Quebec wouldn't have, but provincial decisions are done on a whole.

So on a whole, Ontario is staying put, as is BC. And that is just the problem the CPC has. Rural Canada doesn't have the population to compete with Urban Canada, and Canada continues to get more urban every year that goes by. For all the landmass that the CPC can win, its people that decide elections.

So circling back to the Urban Rural divide, the CPC needs to start winning in the top 70 urban ridings in Canada. I just don't see how they can be competitive without making inroads there. And god forbid another redrawing of the electoral map happens, because all its going to do really is add more ridings in urban areas. The math isn't going to be getting better in the years ahead, it's going to be getting worse.

Edit: I just checked, the ridings are redone every 10 years after the census, so we are due for another one shortly.

According to elections Canada, the next redistribution process will begin with receipt of the 2021 decennial census return