Liberal Minority Government 2019 - ????

[OldSolduer]

I think the issue with O'Toole or even if McKay had been elected as leader of the CPC they are bound to the whim of the party brass. Just my two cents - with GST added.

 

[Altair]

Using polling data to forecast election results is a step above meteorology and Tarot card reading.

In a lot of cases, they target specific demographics and its a a relatively small pool respondents.

338Canada's record so far

338canada.com

Actually, sites like 338 and poll tracker are really accurate these days.

The 338Canada / Qc125 model has thus far covered seven general elections in Canada: Ontario 2018, Quebec 2018, Alberta 2019, Canada 2019, New Brunswick 2020, British Columbia 2020, Saskatchewan 2020. In total, 871 electoral districts were projected by the model and has correctly identified the winner in 783 districts - a success rate of 90%

As mentioned above, the correct winner was identified in 90% of all districts of these five general elections. Among the 88 remaining districts, 58 of the winners (6.5%) obtained a share of the vote that was within the projection's margin of error (moe). Only 30 districts (3.5%) were complete misses.

 

[MilEME09]

Wayne K. Spear: Thirty years in the making, Jody Wilson-Raybould has the last word with Justin Trudeau

She’s provided useful insight into a party that has sold itself as progressive, inclusive and feminist, while driving away female talent and retaining…

nationalpost.com

I doubt this will effect their reelection chances

 

[Jarnhamar]

Trudeau could groupe JWR and his supporters would blame her for being where his hand was.

He's nailing a majority for sure.

 

[Altair]

Trudeau could groupe JWR and his supporters would blame her for being where his hand was.

He's nailing a majority for sure.

I stated before that the CPC cannot win in urban centers with more than 2500 population density.

That locks them out off 66 ridings.

They are also neck in neck with other parties in 76 of the top urban ridings in Canada, up to the top 76 until you get to safe CPC seat.

That has far less to do with just the leader and far more to do with the parties and their policies.

People are placing too much emphasis on Trudeau.

 

[YZT580]

I stated before that the CPC cannot win in urban centers with more than 2500 population density.

That locks them out off 66 ridings.

They are also neck in neck with other parties in 76 of the top urban ridings in Canada, up to the top 76 until you get to safe CPC seat.

That has far less to do with just the leader and far more to do with the parties and their policies.

People are placing too much emphasis on Trudeau.

Fully agree. They also don't take into account the influence of journalism of all types. Trudeau has been front and centre and lulling folks into thinking that everything will work out just fine: just trust him. I believe that he could say nothing except good morning and it would convince many voters that all was ok. People equate his appearance with good news while every time O'Toole shows up on the news he is bitching or complaining about something. They never have him in a positive light and as Kennedy proved against Nixon, appearance is everything.

 

[MilEME09]

I stated before that the CPC cannot win in urban centers with more than 2500 population density.

That locks them out off 66 ridings.

They are also neck in neck with other parties in 76 of the top urban ridings in Canada, up to the top 76 until you get to safe CPC seat.

That has far less to do with just the leader and far more to do with the parties and their policies.

People are placing too much emphasis on Trudeau.

Problem with the CPC is much of the policy seems to be driven by the rural west, which isn't attractive to the majority of Canadians especially in urban centers like Toronto and Montreal. The CPC needs to shift its policies more center if it is to swing moderate and blue liberals to its flag.

 

[Good2Golf]

Problem with the CPC is much of the policy seems to be driven by the rural west, which isn't attractive to the majority of Canadians especially in urban centers like Toronto and Montreal. The CPC needs to shift its policies more center if it is to swing moderate and blue liberals to its flag.

That ship sailed when Harper screwed MacKay over on their deal. Once the PCs were fully subsumed by the Reform/Canadian Alliance, any sense of noblesse oblige was lost, and the majority of red Tories moved on to other things and the CPC now represents a smaller group, primarily rural. The loss of the PC ties to more urban centres has all but tied the CPC’s fate to the image of angry white men screaming at modernity. O’Toole does that well. I think we’re in for at least two more Liberal majorities, and when JT becomes bored, he may choose to hand off to Chrystia Freeland in 2025…

 

[Jarnhamar]

People are placing too much emphasis on Trudeau.

Naw you're not giving him enough credit. He's got people enamored.

That's why I say Canadians deserve a liberal majority. They really ought to see their champion with his gloves off.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I know I'm a broken record but Rona Ambrose would and could beat JT.

And I think she could drag the party, kicking and screening, back towards the center and capture those red tory / blue lib votes

 

[MilEME09]

I know I'm a broken record but Rona Ambrose would and could beat JT.

And I think she could drag the party, kicking and screening, back towards the center and capture those red tory / blue lib votes

michelle rempel I think would also be a decent choice but I agree, the constant older white male leadership of the CPC isn't doing them any favors. I wouldn't be surprised if we eventually saw a blue divorce and see the moderates leave the party.

 

[daftandbarmy]

michelle rempel I think would also be a decent choice but I agree, the constant older white male leadership of the CPC and the influence of the cray cray religious right isn't doing them any favors. I wouldn't be surprised if we eventually saw a blue divorce and see the moderates leave the party.

There, FTFY

 

[The Bread Guy]

... I wouldn't be surprised if we eventually saw a blue divorce and see the moderates leave the party.

I'd guess it's the harder-right-end-of-the-spectrum members who may be more likely to pack up and make their own Team Blue 2.0

 

[MilEME09]

I'd guess it's the harder-right-end-of-the-spectrum members who may be more likely to pack up and make their own Team Blue 2.0

You mean the people's party? Or did we already forget about them? Would do the CPC a favor if more flocked to that party

 

[Altair]

Naw you're not giving him enough credit. He's got people enamored.

That's why I say Canadians deserve a liberal majority. They really ought to see their champion with his gloves off.

So you are of the belief that in 66 ridings that have a population density of 2500/km² going to the Bloc, the NDP, the Liberals, and none to the CPC is that Trudeau is the leader?

Of the 66 ridings that have a pop density of 2500/km², 54 went LPC. I think 11 went NDP, and 1 went bloc. And the common denominator here is that Trudeau has people enamored?

No, sorry, that makes no sense.

The common denominator here is the CPC cannot win in the most urban areas of Canada. And Canada is getting increasingly urban. This is a structural problem for the CPC. Case in point, the most urban areas of Alberta are starting to become competitive for the NDP and the LPC.

338Canada | Projection per population density

338canada.com

Edmonton Griesbach-NDP within 2 points

Calgary Center-LPC ahead in the polls by 3 points

Edmonton Mill Woods- LPC ahead in the polls by 5 points

Edmonton Center- LPC ahead by 6 points

What do all of these have in common? All are approaching the 2500/km² threshold

Edmonton Griesbach-2,443 / km²

Calgary Center-2,422 / km²

Edmonton Center-2,422 / km²

Edmonton Mill Woods- 2,306 / km²

The more urban an area is, the less likely the CPC is able to win there, even in Alberta. That has less to do with Trudeau (the bloc and the NDP are also winning where the CPC cannot) and more to do with urban areas being more progressive politically, and the CPC not having a platform that appeals to urban Canada.

Much better theory than Hurr durr, Trudeau has nice hair people enamored.

 

[Altair]

I know I'm a broken record but Rona Ambrose would and could beat JT.

I think she could beat Trudeau.

And I think she could drag the party, kicking and screening, back towards the center and capture those red tory / blue lib votes

I don't think she wants to do that. It would win her the election, but I don't think anyone wants the task of dragging the CPC to the center. O'Toole has tried and all he got for his effort is a rejection of climate change being real at the party convention.

 

[MilEME09]

So you are of the belief that in 66 ridings that have a population density of 2500/km² going to the Bloc, the NDP, the Liberals, and none to the CPC is that Trudeau is the leader?

Of the 66 ridings that have a pop density of 2500/km², 54 went LPC. I think 11 went NDP, and 1 went bloc. And the common denominator here is that Trudeau has people enamored?

No, sorry, that makes no sense.

The common denominator here is the CPC cannot win in the most urban areas of Canada. And Canada is getting increasingly urban. This is a structural problem for the CPC. Case in point, the most urban areas of Alberta are starting to become competitive for the NDP and the LPC.

338Canada | Projection per population density

338canada.com

Edmonton Griesbach-NDP within 2 points

Calgary Center-LPC ahead in the polls by 3 points

Edmonton Mill Woods- LPC ahead in the polls by 5 points

Edmonton Center- LPC ahead by 6 points

What do all of these have in common? All are approaching the 2500/km² threshold

Edmonton Griesbach-2,443 / km²

Calgary Center-2,422 / km²

Edmonton Center-2,422 / km²

Edmonton Mill Woods- 2,306 / km²

The more urban an area is, the less likely the CPC is able to win there, even in Alberta. That has less to do with Trudeau (the bloc and the NDP are also winning where the CPC cannot) and more to do with urban areas being more progressive politically, and the CPC not having a platform that appeals to urban Canada.

Much better theory than Hurr durr, Trudeau has nice hair people enamored.

It shows in provincial politics too, the rise of the NDP in Alberta was due to urban ridings, the Alberta party also has gained seats and attraction. The conservatives are increasing becoming disconnected from main stream Canadians, this will only get worse as time goes on unless a major shake up happens for the cpc.

 

[Altair]

It shows in provincial politics too, the rise of the NDP in Alberta was due to urban ridings, the Alberta party also has gained seats and attraction. The conservatives are increasing becoming disconnected from main stream Canadians, this will only get worse as time goes on unless a major shake up happens for the cpc.

The CPC is trying to catch the 2011 lightning in a bottle that happened when the LPC had a historically weak leader, the NDP had a extraordinary breakthrough, and the suburbs went CPC because they were scared of the NDP.

But Canada in 2021 is not Canada in 2011, and the suburbs are increasingly just extensions of Urban metropolitan areas, and the politics in the suburbs are shifting accordingly. The Liberals do not have a weak leader, despite what people may think of Trudeau, and the NDP are not breaking through in Quebec again, anytime soon, as the NDP could not hold on to their Quebec nationalist bloc and with Singh, fully capitulated that faction back to the BQ. The BQ, having had the NDP almost kill them, will never allow themselves to be outflanked on the Quebec Nationalism front ever again. The LPC, who had the NDP outflank them on the left, will never allow for that to happen again, and almost always chases down the NDP vote now, dragging the LPC more and more to the left.

The CPC is the only one running the 2011 playbook now, hoping for a strong NDP, winning the suburbs, the west, and rural Canada and hoping that is enough to win. And I just don't see it working in 2021, or the years going forward.

The LPC adjusted after 2011

The BQ adjusted after 2011.

The NDP adjusted after 2015

The CPC need to adjust.

 

[dapaterson]

Almost as if being a one note "Conservative" party doesn't land with Canadians. Almost as if they want... to move forward in some way. To show Progress...

 

[brihard]

Naw you're not giving him enough credit. He's got people enamored.

That's why I say Canadians deserve a liberal majority. They really ought to see their champion with his gloves off.

Don’t forget, they had one from 2015-19.

I'd guess it's the harder-right-end-of-the-spectrum members who may be more likely to pack up and make their own Team Blue 2.0

That tantrum happened already. It failed miserably and their leader was relegated from Member of Parliament to irrelevant antivaxer hangaround on Twitter.