Liberal Minority Government 2019 - ????

[Remius]

I would laugh if the new GG turned around and first asked the CPC if they felt they had the confidence of the house to govern, bam new government and no election

Realistically, the CPC would have to get the the NDP and Bloc onside, won’t happen. A CPC gvt would fall fast and would not wear that well at all going into a general election.

 

[YZT580]

Realistically, the CPC would have to get the the NDP and Bloc onside, won’t happen. A CPC gvt would fall fast and would not wear that well at all going into a general election.

how is the ndp fund raising going. that might influence their decision

 

[brihard]

Well, all signs seem to be pointing toward our PM asking the new GG to dissolve parliament so he can call an election.
I really hope the GG declines, but I suppose that's too much to wish for.
I've long given up on trying to decide which party/candidate is the best one to vote for, now I'm trying to figure out which party is the least worst.
I do know one thing, if our PM does get his wished for election, for no other reason than he's polling well, then I'll definitely not be voting for my liberal (until a short while ago, green) candidate.

As others have said, GG can seek to determine if another party can form a government, but it would be unprecedented and inappropriate for the GG to simply decline a request for an election. We would have an immediate constitutional crisis on our hands. If the government wishes to call an election, then they basically get to. Nature of the system. The onus is on the opposition to try to suck less than they currently do, and actually make a contest of it.

 

[Remius]

how is the ndp fund raising going. that might influence their decision

Won’t matter when it comes to the CPC. What is the CPC willing to cave into? What would they be willing to give the bloc and NDP that won’t piss off their base? The politics are too far to the right and left to be be aligned in any real or lasting way. And how many donors would drop the NDP if they aligned with the CPC?

 

[daftandbarmy]

Won’t matter when it comes to the CPC. What is the CPC willing to cave into? What would they be willing to give the bloc and NDP that won’t piss off their base? The politics are too far to the right and left to be be aligned in any real or lasting way. And how many donors would drop the NDP if they aligned with the CPC?

But the polls are showing the Liberals with a possible majority fo they call an election now.

You know, before the Post-COVID 19 shit show starts rolling and they have to wear it:

What are the chances of each party winning​

46% - Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
46% - Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority
8% -Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

 

[YZT580]

Don't align just keep away from waving right wing red flags that Singh just can't agree to. The NDP aren't going to be any more enamored with those polling figures than the conservatives so they might just buy it if they can keep it unofficial. I know I would 'cause the polls indicate that they will lose even more seats.

 

[suffolkowner]

The PHAC/Government vs the Speaker/House would seem to offer the PM and the GG more than enough reason for an election. And more than enough of a reason to have a GG in place that was not also a Supreme court justice. At this point it is just a matter of timing. Get their pensions, vaccinate some more, bleed a bit more of the summer away, call election, be rewarded with majority. Of course the GG could refuse but rarely have our GG's pushed back publically and officially against a PM

 

[MilEME09]

The PHAC/Government vs the Speaker/House would seem to offer the PM and the GG more than enough reason for an election. And more than enough of a reason to have a GG in place that was not also a Supreme court justice. At this point it is just a matter of timing. Get their pensions, vaccinate some more, bleed a bit more of the summer away, call election, be rewarded with majority. Of course the GG could refuse but rarely have our GG's pushed back publically and officially against a PM

Then again we seem to see a fair number of first nations politicians not playing ball with JT and the liberals, the new GG could take a more serious stance on official duties.

 

[Altair]

People seem to not have confidence in O'Toole running a great campaign and winning.

Regardless, I don't really see a Byng-King crisis 2.0 with a new GG.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/King%25E2%2580%2593Byng_affair&ved=2ahUKEwig9M29i9XxAhVlnuAKHfuvAg0QFjAHegQICBAF&usg=AOvVaw3I7cWhMxpuKRiERNSmFQmU

 

[Halifax Tar]

People seem to not have confidence in O'Toole running a great campaign and winning.

I don't see it. O'Toole is a dud, like his predecessor.

I predict a pretty easy Liberal majority.

 

[OldSolduer]

Then again we seem to see a fair number of first nations politicians not playing ball with JT and the liberals, the new GG could take a more serious stance on official duties.

It won't happen til JTs fair haired idiots qualify for a pension.

Which brings me to this - many of us paid into a pension for 20+ years.

Members of Parliament need six years to qualify for a very generous pension. Am I the only one who sees something wrong with this?

 

[Haggis]

Members of Parliament need six years to qualify for a very generous pension. Am I the only one who sees something wrong with this?

Many others do as well, but they don't care because they know that they can't change it.

I predict a pretty easy Liberal majority.

A Liberal majority in the next election is pretty much a given at this point. The Liberal election promises will ensure that the post-COVID-19 shit show is pushed far to the right.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Another interesting tea leaf to read: Jody Wilson-Raybould not running ....

Independent MP Jody Wilson-Raybould will not seek re-election in the next federal campaign, saying in a letter to her constituents on Thursday that Parliament has become “toxic and ineffective” during her time in politics.

“I have not made this decision in order to spend more time with my family or to focus on other challenges and pursuits,” the former Liberal cabinet minister who represents Vancouver Granville wrote in her letter posted to Twitter.

“From my seat over the last six years, I have noticed a change in Parliament, a regression. It has become more toxic and ineffective while simultaneously marginalizing individuals from certain backgrounds.”

Wilson-Raybould went on to deride an “increasingly disgraceful triumph of harmful partisanship over substantive action,” and promised to carry on her previous work on Indigenous reconciliation, climate change and other issues outside Parliament.

More in a letter to constituents she shared via Twitter (attached).

 

[Good2Golf]

A loss for the wider effort to increase parliament’s and Government’s accountability, but her work with those peoples and communities closer to JWR will continue to be served by her dedication.

Interesting to see Trudeau’s Twitter Apparatchik jump on JWR and slam her for running away…It’s almost as though Oscar Wilde had a time machine to jump forward to observe Trudeau & Co. then jump back and write The Picture of Dorian Gray.

 

[suffolkowner]

The Conservatives have been through this before until Harpers breakthrough and even then it would be hard to claim he was the most charismatic of people. The Liberals too with Ignatieff and Dion. Providing the voters with what they want is a bit of a crapshoot at the best of times

 

[Altair]

The Conservatives have been through this before until Harpers breakthrough and even then it would be hard to claim he was the most charismatic of people. The Liberals too with Ignatieff and Dion. Providing the voters with what they want is a bit of a crapshoot at the best of times

More like what the party wants and what the voters want isn't always the same thing.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Using polling data to forecast election results is a step above meteorology and Tarot card reading.

In a lot of cases, they target specific demographics and its a a relatively small pool respondents.

 

[Good2Golf]

More like what the party wants and what the voters want isn't always the same thing.

The CPC can bloodily well live with the impact of their party constitution, voting methodology and not voting for Peter MacKay…

 

[suffolkowner]

The CPC can bloodily well live with the impact of their party constitution, voting methodology and not voting for Peter MacKay…

Hard to say if MacKay would do better, it might have sent a better message, but I thought O'Toole would have performed better as well

 

[Good2Golf]

O’Toole is what happens when an asteroid crashes through the roof of the arena and wipes out the first line and the coach turns to his side and sees the second string sitting there with a hollow semi-smile on their face, hoping to get out into the game…