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The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

MarkOttawa said:
Letting F-35A into the competition but making getting points tougher:

Is gov't basically saying to US/LockheedMartin: "You're scoring out of 80 points while others (Boeing, Airbus, Saab) are scoring out of 100?

Mark
Ottawa

That's not necessarily an accurate interpretation, Mark.  The case could be made that the value that Canadian aerospace industry gets from the overall share of JSF supply chain participation has de facto ITB value...especially if, as it would seem to be by public record, results in more industry revenue than governmental monies provided through JSF MOU payments.

:2c:

Regards
G2G
 
Good2Golf said:
That's not necessarily an accurate interpretation, Mark.  The case could be made that the value that Canadian aerospace industry gets from the overall share of JSF supply chain participation has de facto ITB value...especially if, as it would seem to be by public record, results in more industry revenue than governmental monies provided through JSF MOU payments.

:2c:

Regards
G2G
Agreed. The potential value over the entire life of the program is an intangible, but given the close integration of our native  industries (that are already well into the program at this point) and their geographic location (relative to the main assembly point), it would be academic to assume that we will see more than enough "offsets" over the life of the program.
Also? It's safe to assume that due to the above factors, there is a rather high probability that we may see a substantial increase in sub-contracts awarded to the Canadian aviation industry...once we sign a purchase order.

Thoughts?
 
Iron 1 said:
Agreed. The potential value over the entire life of the program is an intangible, but given the close integration of our native  industries (that are already well into the program at this point) and their geographic location (relative to the main assembly point), it would be academic to assume that we will see more than enough "offsets" over the life of the program.
Also? It's safe to assume that due to the above factors, there is a rather high probability that we may see a substantial increase in sub-contracts awarded to the Canadian aviation industry...once we sign a purchase order.

Thoughts?

Possibly, particularly given concerns over current major suppliers like Turkey, as it appears to include significant elements of non-NATO defence technology into it's national security infrastructure (S-400 Air Defence, etc.)

For those wondering how Canadian industry could (continue to) benefit from ongoing participation and furthermore, investment (acquisition within) the JSF program, the overall framework of Industrial Technological Benefits (ITB) and elements of them, including determination of the Value Proposition (VP) of any particular program, and its alignment with Canadian industrial Key Industrial Capability (KIC) areas, is worth a quick read.  (Ref: ISED Canada - Industrial and Technological Benefits Policy: Value Proposition Guide - Rev. 31 May 2018).

The irony is that through signing on to the JSP Program as a (Tier 3) participating nation through a succession of MOUs and providing participation funding to the Program, the Government of Canada itself has created an  Industrial and Technological Benefits (ITB) Management Plan consistent with its very own ITB/VP Policy, to which we know numerous companies in Canada's aerospace and defence electronics sectors are participating.

Regards
G2G
 
Uzlu said:
I am surprised that Lockheed Martin and Boeing are still interested in putting in a bid.  I am surprised that Lockheed Martin and Boeing appear not to have realised that the deck is stacked against them.  Why waste time and money on bids that have no chances of winning?  Trudeau’s ego is always more important than the Royal Canadian Air Force.

Lockheed would dearly like to keep Canada in the program as we provide reliable, high quality and nearby part supply with minimal transportation hassles. If Canada was suddenly kicked out and lost those contract, i suspect you see all sorts of part shortages for awhile and possibly higher prices (parts made with Canadian production costs will be lower than US due to currency exchange.
 
In the end getting a very capable for NORAD is all about "defence against help":

The U.S. needs to be a key part of Canada’s next-gen jet procurement process

Elinor Sloan, professor of international relations in the department of political science at Carleton University, is a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

For a bid to buy a plane designed to cut quickly through the skies, Ottawa’s pursuit of a future-generation fighter jet has been a long and torturous slog.

In 1997, Jean Chrétien’s Liberal government joined the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, a U.S.-led initiative conceived as a new way for allies to work together to design, develop and produce a fifth-generation fighter aircraft. In 2006, Ottawa signed a formal memorandum of understanding that gave Canada and the other eight partner nations the exclusive right to compete for contracts to produce such aircraft and, since 2007, Canadian companies have won more than US$1.3-billion in defence contracts related to the Joint Strike Fighter. With a production line that will be operating at full capacity starting this year, and is expected to produce about 10 times as many aircraft as exist today over the next few decades, this number promises to grow substantially.

Meanwhile, Canada’s nearly 40-year-old fleet of fighter jets – the CF-18s – continues to age. In 2010, the Harper government shelved its plan to sole-source buy the Joint Strike Fighter to replace them after a public outcry and a damning auditor-general’s report that found significant weaknesses in the process used by the Department of National Defence.

Then, when the Liberals took office in 2015 and promised an open and fair competition to replace the CF-18s, it also banned the F-35 from bidding – two contradictory positions. The Trudeau government quietly dropped that ban last year, and pre-qualified four companies to bid on a contract worth at least $15-billion: Sweden’s Saab Gripen, Britain’s Airbus Eurofighter, the U.S.'s Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet, and yes, Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

According to letters released last week, though, the U.S. government threatened to pull the Lockheed Martin F-35 from consideration last year over Ottawa’s insistence that Canada receive industrial benefits from the winning bid. In response, Ottawa relaxed its requirement Thursday: where bidders once had to commit to spend 100 per cent of the value of the aircraft’s acquisition and sustainment in Canada, bids will now only lose points in a three-category scoring system in the review process, instead.

With such exhausting twists and incompatible statements, it’s little surprise that it took three and a half years of the government’s four-year mandate just to get to the formal request-for-proposal stage.

But there is a way out of this morass: pursuing a back-to-basics focus on why we need this aircraft and what we need it to do.

To do so, we must focus the proposed jets’ promised technical capabilities, which are paramount, and rightly weighted the highest of that three-category scoring system. The second category is cost, which of course important to any government. The third is creating and sustaining a highly skilled work force within our own borders, a goal enshrined in Canada’s industrial trade benefits (ITB) policy, which requires a winning bid to guarantee it will make investments in Canada equal to the value of the contract. Each bid is scored by these three categories, weighed 60-20-20, respectively.

However, the Joint Strike Fighter program, which Canada has spent millions to join, does not fit neatly into the ITB policy. In those letters last year, the Pentagon and Lockheed Martin pointed out that Canada’s ITB terms are inconsistent with – and indeed prohibited by – the memorandum of understanding Canada signed in 2006, which says partners cannot impose industrial compensation measures. The solution reached on Thursday allows that memorandum to be obeyed, but since Canada will still give higher grades to bids that follow its ITB policy, questions remain as to whether the playing field has really been levelled.

All this is important because of the growing competition between the major powers. Russian bombers and fighters, for example, are increasingly testing the boundaries of Canadian and U.S. airspace. More than ever, the focus needs to be interoperability with the U.S., working together on NORAD and helping NATO allies in Europe. As a flying command-and-control platform, rather than a mere fighter, Canada’s next-generation jet must work with the U.S.'s most sophisticated systems, and include a seamless and secure communications capability – that is a critical and non-negotiable criterion. Indeed, as DND has said, the United States will need to certify the winning jet meets Washington’s security standards.

Some may question the federal government’s decision to relax the ITB rules, and to grant this certification sign-off. But whatever Canada buys must be able to address threats to us and to our allies until well into the 2060s. Our relationship with the United States, both in terms of geopolitics and military technology, is crucial. Despite our trade tête-à-tête, the United States remains our most important strategic partner. Canada can either take an active part in our own security or leave it to the United States [emphasis added].
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-us-needs-to-be-a-key-part-of-canadas-next-gen-jet-procurement/

Mark
Ottawa
 
Say no more: https://nationalpost.com/opinion/canadians-should-be-scandalized-by-the-liberals-fighter-jet-debacle

“Richard Shimooka: The government holds the security of its citizens in near-total disregard, and the public barely raises an eyebrow”
 
And offering 100% benefits:

Boeing Commits to 100 Per Cent Industrial and Technological Benefits (Itb) Obligation
http://www.boeing.ca/media/news-releases/2019/may/boeing-commits-to-100-per-cent-itb-obligation.page

Mark
Ottawa
 
You'd have to ask Boeing why they would offer one platform over another in their inventory.
 
Underway said:
So weird question but why is there no F-15? Or perhaps more importantly why was it never part of the conversation?  What makes the F-18 so much more obvious a choice over the F-15 (which is also in the Boeing inventory).

Boeing doesn’t need Canada’s business to keep the F-15X line open.  It does for the Super Hornet (especially Block 3).
 
SupersonicMax said:
Boeing doesn’t need Canada’s business to keep the F-15X line open.  It does for the Super Hornet (especially Block 3).

That’s not true.  The US Navy is rebuilding block 2s and buying new Block 3s. It only has 10 orders thus far for it’s F-15ex.
 
I think the problem with the F-15EX is that the Super Hornet is one of four fighters that were "pre-qualified" by the gov't last year to enter the competition (Rafale also was in but Dassault pulled it).  Presumably the gov't would have to agree to do the same for the new Eagle. That would just slow things down yet again.

Ottawa releases draft tender on purchase of new fighter jets
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/airforce-cf18-fighter-jet-replacement-f35-1.4882570

European fighter-jet manufacturer pulls out of Canadian competition to replace CF-18s
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-european-fighter-jet-manufacturer-pulls-out-of-canadian-competition-to/

Mark
Ottawa
 
MTShaw said:
That’s not true.  The US Navy is rebuilding block 2s and buying new Block 3s. It only has 10 orders thus far for it’s F-15ex.

The F-15SA is considered F-15X.  What I told you came from people in the know (ie: Boeing).
 
SupersonicMax said:
The F-15SA is considered F-15X.  What I told you came from people in the know (ie: Boeing).

Fair enough, good sir. Thanks for the info.
 
MTShaw said:
Fair enough, good sir. Thanks for the info.

Just some amplification.

Boeing secured $50B+ already in contracts for the F-15SA/QA/X and only $4B for the Super Hornet Block 3.  The money for Boeing isn’t with the US Armed Forces but with foreign governments.  They want and need to secure the Block 3 line.
 
Still need full House plus Senate, doubt there will be problems:

F-15EX could be delivered as early as 2020: Boeing
...
House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee [controlled by Democrats] included $986 million in a draft FY2020 budget for eight F-15EX aircraft to replace aging F-15C/Ds...
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/f-15ex-could-be-delivered-as-early-as-2020-boeing-458168/

Mark
Ottawa
 
Of the main competitors (even including the F-15X), how do they stack up in terms of the need for new infrastructure, particularly in the north? 

I think that is an underreported issue with the whole new fighter project - most commentators focus on the cost of the aircraft and maintenance, and not the cost of new infrastructure necessary to operate them (possible longer runways, new FOLs, new AAR platforms, new security systems, etc).  I would imagine that some of the aircraft would fit into our existing sites better than others?
 
Harrigan said:
Of the main competitors (even including the F-15X), how do they stack up in terms of the need for new infrastructure, particularly in the north? 

I think that is an underreported issue with the whole new fighter project - most commentators focus on the cost of the aircraft and maintenance, and not the cost of new infrastructure necessary to operate them (possible longer runways, new FOLs, new AAR platforms, new security systems, etc).  I would imagine that some of the aircraft would fit into our existing sites better than others?

My best guess is that the infrastructure bill is an approximate wash, regardless of the aircraft chosen. Others who have recently been to Cold Lake can probably attest that most everything there (building-wise) was built in the 1950s and is at the end of its life. The Physical security requirements will increase, dramatically.
 
Harrigan said:
Of the main competitors (even including the F-15X), how do they stack up in terms of the need for new infrastructure, particularly in the north? 

I think that is an underreported issue with the whole new fighter project - most commentators focus on the cost of the aircraft and maintenance, and not the cost of new infrastructure necessary to operate them (possible longer runways, new FOLs, new AAR platforms, new security systems, etc).  I would imagine that some of the aircraft would fit into our existing sites better than others?

We had an extended discussion of this a page earlier.
 
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