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http://www.recorder.ca/cp/National/050925/n092571A.html
Military recruitment targets almost impossible to meet, says paper
STEPHEN THORNE
OTTAWA (CP) - The Canadian military will be hard-pressed to raise anywhere near the 8,000 additional recruits it hopes to attract over the next five years, says an analysis conducted for Queen's University.
Defence will have to bring nearly half again that many people into their recruiting centres in the next five years and hope enough are qualified to match the targets set by the federal government last year, says the paper.
The estimates don't take into account expected attrition in an aging military where net growth has been between 150 and 300 people annually, writes Christopher Ankersen, an Ottawa-based security and defence expert.
And, regardless of admirable money commitments from Ottawa, any rise in the number of recruits will further stress or overwhelm an already-understaffed training cadre and possibly affect operational capability, Ankersen says.
"Rapid expansion poses a significant challenge to the Canadian Forces," he writes. "The current personnel situation is not healthy (and) 8,000 new personnel is a very ambitious goal.
"The Canadian population cannot easily support increased recruiting on such a scale and the existing human resource system is not prepared for such expansion."
But the head of recruiting for the Canadian Forces says some of Ankersen's premises were wrong and some of the information he used was dated.
For example, Col. Kevin Cotten said, the military has not been authorized to grow for years and therefore exceeded its mandate by expanding at the nominal rate of between 150 and 300 a year.
In 2003-04, the Forces only enrolled 60 per cent of all the people it processed as applicants and who qualified for service, he added.
"We know we can deliver," Cotten said in an interview. "We get high-quality people in numbers that exceed our needs. We've turned away thousands of people in recent years because we don't have jobs to give them."
The chief of defence staff, Gen. Rick Hillier, has declared that recruiting is his No. 1 priority.
The federal government has committed more than $3 billion to expand the regular force by 5,000 personnel and the reserves by 3,000 within five years as part of a long-range overhaul of the country's beleaguered military.
The Forces currently have about 52,700 so-called trained, effective - deployable - soldiers. Last April's defence policy statement aims to have enough to indefinitely maintain at least two full-scale overseas operations.
Ankersen says years of budget cuts and eroding resources have posed enough challenges without the additional task of convincing significantly more people to consider the military as a career option.
There are handicaps permanently built into the system. Only about one in six who express an interest in joining the military actually make the grade, Ankersen asserts.
Cotten says that ratio is closer to two in five among full-scale applicants and one in 10 among so-called "contacts" - people who talk to military recruiters by phone, face-to-face or via e-mail.
Nevertheless, contends Ankersen, with shortfalls across key trades and among critical demographics, the military would need 48,000 additional people to seek employment in the next five years to even hope to meet targets.
That's on top of 20,000 that Ankersen says already visit recruitment centres each year.
"This amounts to expecting a 38 per cent increase in annual traffic through the recruiting centres - a tall order indeed," Ankersen writes.
"This tall order is even more daunting if one considers the preferences of the potential pool of recruits - that is, the Canadian public."
While the Forces are perceived favourably by Canadians, relatively few supporters are of an appropriate age or favour them enough to join, he points out.
Furthermore, defence needs specialized trades that require training and expertise. There are not a lot of options available, Ankersen says.
"It is distressing to see just how small that pool is," he writes.
"No more than one out of every eight Canadians between 15 and 39 years old is even 'somewhat interested' in making the military a career of choice."
This year alone, National Defence is spending $7.7 million on advertising and other promotional programs. But studies suggest advertising's effects are minimal.
The lack of support and promotional failures make it unlikely that the military can get 48,000 more people into its recruitment centres in the next five years, Ankersen writes.
He estimates that a modest goal of increasing the trained effective strength to 54,500 is not achievable before sometime in 2012.
Cotten says it is.
He said 24,000 people have been coming through military recruiting centres annually in recent years, not 20,000.
And far exceeding 48,000, he said he wants his staff to reach 100,000 people over the next five years - in classrooms, at job fairs and in recruiting centres.
Defence is bracing for an exodus of experienced soldiers in the next few years that will boost attrition from its recent annual average of six per cent.
Military recruitment targets almost impossible to meet, says paper
STEPHEN THORNE
OTTAWA (CP) - The Canadian military will be hard-pressed to raise anywhere near the 8,000 additional recruits it hopes to attract over the next five years, says an analysis conducted for Queen's University.
Defence will have to bring nearly half again that many people into their recruiting centres in the next five years and hope enough are qualified to match the targets set by the federal government last year, says the paper.
The estimates don't take into account expected attrition in an aging military where net growth has been between 150 and 300 people annually, writes Christopher Ankersen, an Ottawa-based security and defence expert.
And, regardless of admirable money commitments from Ottawa, any rise in the number of recruits will further stress or overwhelm an already-understaffed training cadre and possibly affect operational capability, Ankersen says.
"Rapid expansion poses a significant challenge to the Canadian Forces," he writes. "The current personnel situation is not healthy (and) 8,000 new personnel is a very ambitious goal.
"The Canadian population cannot easily support increased recruiting on such a scale and the existing human resource system is not prepared for such expansion."
But the head of recruiting for the Canadian Forces says some of Ankersen's premises were wrong and some of the information he used was dated.
For example, Col. Kevin Cotten said, the military has not been authorized to grow for years and therefore exceeded its mandate by expanding at the nominal rate of between 150 and 300 a year.
In 2003-04, the Forces only enrolled 60 per cent of all the people it processed as applicants and who qualified for service, he added.
"We know we can deliver," Cotten said in an interview. "We get high-quality people in numbers that exceed our needs. We've turned away thousands of people in recent years because we don't have jobs to give them."
The chief of defence staff, Gen. Rick Hillier, has declared that recruiting is his No. 1 priority.
The federal government has committed more than $3 billion to expand the regular force by 5,000 personnel and the reserves by 3,000 within five years as part of a long-range overhaul of the country's beleaguered military.
The Forces currently have about 52,700 so-called trained, effective - deployable - soldiers. Last April's defence policy statement aims to have enough to indefinitely maintain at least two full-scale overseas operations.
Ankersen says years of budget cuts and eroding resources have posed enough challenges without the additional task of convincing significantly more people to consider the military as a career option.
There are handicaps permanently built into the system. Only about one in six who express an interest in joining the military actually make the grade, Ankersen asserts.
Cotten says that ratio is closer to two in five among full-scale applicants and one in 10 among so-called "contacts" - people who talk to military recruiters by phone, face-to-face or via e-mail.
Nevertheless, contends Ankersen, with shortfalls across key trades and among critical demographics, the military would need 48,000 additional people to seek employment in the next five years to even hope to meet targets.
That's on top of 20,000 that Ankersen says already visit recruitment centres each year.
"This amounts to expecting a 38 per cent increase in annual traffic through the recruiting centres - a tall order indeed," Ankersen writes.
"This tall order is even more daunting if one considers the preferences of the potential pool of recruits - that is, the Canadian public."
While the Forces are perceived favourably by Canadians, relatively few supporters are of an appropriate age or favour them enough to join, he points out.
Furthermore, defence needs specialized trades that require training and expertise. There are not a lot of options available, Ankersen says.
"It is distressing to see just how small that pool is," he writes.
"No more than one out of every eight Canadians between 15 and 39 years old is even 'somewhat interested' in making the military a career of choice."
This year alone, National Defence is spending $7.7 million on advertising and other promotional programs. But studies suggest advertising's effects are minimal.
The lack of support and promotional failures make it unlikely that the military can get 48,000 more people into its recruitment centres in the next five years, Ankersen writes.
He estimates that a modest goal of increasing the trained effective strength to 54,500 is not achievable before sometime in 2012.
Cotten says it is.
He said 24,000 people have been coming through military recruiting centres annually in recent years, not 20,000.
And far exceeding 48,000, he said he wants his staff to reach 100,000 people over the next five years - in classrooms, at job fairs and in recruiting centres.
Defence is bracing for an exodus of experienced soldiers in the next few years that will boost attrition from its recent annual average of six per cent.
It's no different than if you applied to the RCMP or a local police force or fire department. There's procedures that need to be followed and standards must be maintained. The biggest challenge for recruiters is increasing the CF's appeal, and appealing to the Canadian public's dormant sense of patriotism. 
