Québec Election: 7 Apr 14

[a_majoor]

Re dual citizenship, I'm pretty sure that an angry and vengeful Canada will put a quick end to that. If Quebec wants to set it's own path, then fine, but they have also given up the ability to access the rights and privileges of being a Canadian while doing so.

WRT using Canadian currency, there is actually nothing to stop an Independent Quebec from doing so. Indeed, there is nothing to stop Ukraine from doing so either, if they so desired. The sticking point in adopting and using a foreign currency is that the adopter has no say in the issuing nation's Fiscal or Monetary policy.

This could have counterintuitive effects. Since Quebec could be expected to continue to offer massive social programs and government spending even after a UDI, they might suddenly discover they are suffering deflation and a depression as the amount of money is not sufficient to cover the extravagant amount of promised goods and services. This is the opposite of the usual inflationary problem, where too much money is in the system, being used to bid up a static or more slowly growing pool of goods and services. Of course that sort of problem solves itself if left alone, but historical experience from the Great Depression and understanding the desire of Quebec technocrats to meddle suggests that in this hypothetical case, the Quebec  Depression will be very long and hard (the worst year of the Great Depression was 1938, a full 9 years after the 1929 "crash" and a direct result of "New Deal" meddling with the American economy).

One can imagine a future Conservative government slowly turning the screws by adopting a balanced budget policy and implementing a 10 year plan to pay off the debt, for the benefit of Canadian taxpayers...

 

[George Wallace]

Re dual citizenship, I'm pretty sure that an angry and vengeful Canada will put a quick end to that. If Quebec wants to set it's own path, then fine, but they have also given up the ability to access the rights and privileges of being a Canadian while doing so.

Canada will have no say in what Quebec does or does not permit in the way of Dual Citizenship.  I am of the opinion that with the current climate, other than being able to reap Canadian benefits, Quebec would want nothing to do with an Anglophone Canada, and likely take a path of not permitting Dual Citizenship; it not being "pur laine".  It may not necessarily be the individual's right to claim it.

On the subject of Premier Minister Marois not attending the English Language debates; it would appear that she is sending a signal that Anglophone and Allophone votes mean nothing to her.  I am sure that this will be capitalized upon by the opposition parties.  She must be very confident in her party's position.

 

[Old Sweat]

We are speculating before the PQ has won a majority, let along won a referendum, neither of which is a sure thing.

However the situation that bothers me the most is a PQ win in a referendum by a very small majority (in other words not as required by the Clarity Act) followed by an immediate UDI and recognition as a sovereign state by a number of nations, some of whom promise military aid to Quebec in the event of a confrontation with Canada.

I don't think it is going to happen, but there always is the possibility. Hmm, maybe I should write a book proposal and send it to an agent.

 

[a_majoor]

I was actually talking about the view from the Canadian side of the border; if Quebec declares UDI and then blithely expects people living in Quebec to be able to live and work in Canada, collect Canadian benefits etc. as "dual citizens" then they will likely have another thing coming.

As for people who are caught behind the Quebec border, what happens to them is entirely up to the new government of Quebec. Anglo and allophones living there after a UDI would probably be advised to move out ASAP, and Canada can fund that out of the "Equalization" budget for Quebec. Actually, given that there will be no more equalization payments after a UDI, this does look better for Canada, since we can now free up resources to balance the budget or do other things that are needed.

 

[wannabe SF member]

Well if Obama's words yesterday are to be trusted, immediate UDI's after referendum or due to a parliamentary decree are no longer kosher in the today's world. Regardless of the economic implications, wouldn't the government be compelled to intervene militarily in Qc if the National Assembly decided to secede without negotiations? Wouldn't we at the very least want to send out troops to immediately secure military assets scattered across installations across the province such as reserve units who might find themselves vulnerable to being pilfered by the new government?

 

[Remius]

Secession wouldn't be immediate.  It would be a mandate to enter negotiations to secede.  Nothing would get transferred or traded until said negotiations would be finalized and a target date for the split would happen.  I suspect that armouries and some military installations would be transferred once numbers are crunched and Canada would strike those reserve units that belong to Quebec (barring any local areas that remained with Canada) from the order of battle.  Regular force units would likely be moved to Canadian soil.  There would be a reorg of Canadian units as a result.

 

[Old Sweat]

Secession wouldn't be immediate.  It would be a mandate to enter negotiations to secede.  Nothing would get transferred or traded until said negotiations would be finalized and a target date for the split would happen.  I suspect that armouries and some military installations would be transferred once numbers are crunched and Canada would strike those reserve units that belong to Quebec (barring any local areas that remained with Canada) from the order of battle.  Regular force units would likely be moved to Canadian soil.  There would be a reorg of Canadian units as a result.

Logically and legally you are correct and I respect your balanced analysis, except an immediate UDI would empower the self-appointed independent government of Quebec to arbitrarily (and illegally in the perception of the rest of Canada) take all sorts of actions. Imagine declaring all Federal property and equipment in the new nation now belonged to Quebec and all members of the CAF in Quebec could consider themselves member of the armed forces of the new state of Quebec. Oh yes, and any oaths any federal employee took to the Queen were invalid.

 

[Remius]

Old Sweat: yes that could happen but remember that PQ government that would win a referendum will be seeking international recognition sis a top priority to legitimize their claim.  Unilateral declarations and announcements would not be to their benefit in that regard especially if the ROC acts in good faith.  The PQ have always wanted a negotiated separation. I see no reason why they would deviate from that.  But who knows. 

 

[Old Sweat]

Agreed. But who know with true believers? And we are in an atmosphere where a Crimean referendum is being legitimized by dubious process.

I am in southern Georgia and have just cracked a mason jar of guaranteed less than 30 days old when jarred corn whiskey, so I best sign off.

Good work, Crantor.

 

[DBA]

Weren't they going to declare unilateral separation after the last referendum if they won? I remember reading about the plans for it being leaked. Considering that was with a vague weasel question and 50% + 1 saying yes I don't see them wasting any time declaring sovereignty if they win the next referendum. The separatists have no inhibitions in screwing over the rest of Canada which gives them an advantage as the reverse is not true.

 

[Brad Sallows]

>THAT is why Canada will do everything it can to maintain its laws, treaties, acts etc etc.

I have no idea what you are dreaming about.  I'm only referring to legal changes that could be made to cut Quebec and its residents completely off from drinking at the Canadian spigot.  Of course Canada would continue to respect its international agreements.

But for those who think the obligations of what remains of Canada are untouchable, try this thought experiment: if other regions decide to opt out of "Canada" because of the burden of its obligations and leave the remainder holding the bag, at what point do Canada's obligations become transferable?  And if those obligations become transferable when party #N leaves, why not when party #1 leaves?

Plan: immediately after Quebec secedes, the remaining provinces and territories, less PEI, announce their secession from Canada.

 

[Remius]

Again, do not underestimate the speed at which old laws - including the rock-bottom fundamental ones - will be voided and new ones written after actual separation.

Brad, this is what you said.  If I misunderstood, sorry.  Rock bottom fundamental ones seems to imply a bit more that legal changes you are implying. 

Of course it is reasonable that after a split happens that Canada would redefine and rewrite the citizenship act but it is a case of at least a few years and again within the framework of our rules and laws.

 

[Jungle]

Old Sweat: yes that could happen but remember that PQ government that would win a referendum will be seeking international recognition sis a top priority to legitimize their claim.  Unilateral declarations and announcements would not be to their benefit in that regard especially if the ROC acts in good faith.  The PQ have always wanted a negotiated separation. I see no reason why they would deviate from that.  But who knows.

I saw a televised interview some time after the 1995 referendum where Jacques Parzeau stated clearly that he intended to mak a UDI the morning following a successful YES vote...  and that was not part of the plan.

 

[Old Sweat]

I saw a televised interview some time after the 1995 referendum where Jacques Parzeau stated clearly that he intended to mak a UDI the morning following a successful YES vote...  and that was not part of the plan.

That was one of the factors that led to my speculation. After a UDI the government could claim in the odd logic that prevails at such times that as an independent country, the clarity act no longer applies. Cripes, they could also claim all federal property, assets and equipment now belongs to them and all members of the CAF in Quebec or from Quebec were encouraged to transfer to the armed forces of Quebec.

I wonder how the Americans would react to suddenly having a large approach into their air space no longer covered by the Norad agreement?

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Time perhaps to clarify the Clarity Act.

All right people: Hold on for the big one: The Clarity Act does not apply to Quebec  ... nor to Alberta, or B.-C., or any other province that would wish to leave this great country.

The Clarity Act only applies to the Federal Government. It dictates to that government the principles that should guide it, and no one else, in applying from its side the Supreme Court decision that determined that a province has the right to secede and what the legal process to do so is.

For instance, after a Yukonese referendum that votes in favour of secession but at a level lower than the one in the Clarity Act, the Federal government would be refrained, by law, from entering into negotiations on secession with Yukon or to recognize the results of said referendum.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I'm keen to hear what memebers here, especially those who know more about QC than I (which means many of you), think about the entry of M. Pierre Karl Péladeau into the race, as the PQ's newest star candidate means. Here is a somewhat personal view by Michael den Tandt which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Ottawa Citizen:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Tandt+Premier+Marois+brings+lion+into+tent+good/9597696/story.html

PQ Premier Pauline Marois brings a lion into her tent – Pierre Karl Peladeau – for good or ill
Can the former Quebecor boss be a team player?

BY MICHAEL DEN TANDT, POSTMEDIA NEWS

MARCH 9, 2014

Once upon a time, during the years when I served as a scribe, factor, bannerman and foot-soldier in the sprawling empire of Pierre Karl Peladeau (as of Sunday among the most powerful politicians in Quebec), it was commonly thought in the trenches that this mercurial billionaire often did not do justice to the many good newspapers he owned, or the many fine people who worked on them.

In confirming his long-rumoured entry into politics as chief economic consigliere to Quebec Premier Pauline Marois, Peladeau, or PKP, as most refer to him, appears to have borne this view out. For among the many important and troubling aspects of his candidacy there is this, somewhat down the list; he has thrown Sun News Network, the TV channel he founded and the most stridently patriotic of organs, under a bus. Likewise the Sun papers, and the former Osprey titles he acquired in 2007, many of them small-city Ontario newspapers that have served their communities loyally since the 19th Century. Good luck to them all now, as they craft their national unity editorials, secure in the knowledge that their major shareholder has pledged all of his considerable intellect, energy and passion to the breakup of the country.

One does not know where to start, such are the implications. So let’s begin with the personal. I did not report to Peladeau directly during the time I worked for his company, between 2007 and 2011. I bumped into him a few times. He always treated me with perfect cordiality. His reputation, which circulated everywhere through the senior ranks of Sun Media in the years after he took personal executive control, was that of an intelligent, determined and ruthless manager — who was also capricious, temperamental, and often enraged at his underlings.

There were stories of tirades that lasted for hours; very-late-night briefings with senior managers that went on and on, with Peladeau lecturing, Fidel-Castro-like, as his helpless employees struggled to keep awake; the Quebecor corporate jet wafting into small-town Ontario airports so the Boss could barnstorm into a newsroom of three or four desks, to sign a sheaf of backlogged expense cheques, as the workers stood quaking nearby. I know of one small-town publisher who received an email from Peladeau at 3  a.m., angrily querying the purchase of some T-shirts for a local charitable event. PKP made a virtue of intense micro-management, believing it integral to the operation of a good business. Perhaps it is.

In the last decade newspapers have undergone wrenching change, and downsizing. To his credit, Peladeau was among the first major publishers to see the falling anvil of declining print advertising, and adopt broad-based centralization and sharing of editorial services. His claims to being entrepreneurial, decisive, and an innovator, which he reiterated Sunday, are absolutely fair. An insistence on having his own way, at all times and in all circumstances, however, has long been part and parcel of his management style, and often led his newspapers into thickets that verged on the farcical.

For example there was the time he insisted, an array of his small-town Ontario broadsheets spread on a table before him, that every title in every market must be arranged in the same way, with the inside sections precisely in the same order, and with the same headings, and the ad stacks be damned. No one could impress upon PKP that only he was reading all these local newspapers simultaneously, side by side; and that he, therefore, would be the only person in the world who would notice the magnificent harmonization. An executive was sent around the province with a colour-coded binder, dictating the changes.

Sunday, PKP tacitly acknowledged his business management style may not necessarily transfer to political life. He asserted, with Marois nodding placidly at his side, that government can’t be run like a business. The premier herself chimed in, saying her new candidate in the riding of St. Jerome is now a member of a team, and will be a team player. Really? “There’s one prima donna in this company and one only,” a former colleague said to me once, of Peladeau. It would be curious indeed for a billionaire, with a billionaire’s sense of command, to change his spots at 52.

What can we conclude from this? It’s implausible that Marois would be unaware, at this juncture, of any aspect of Peladeau’s personal style. It’s also unbelievable that she does not understand he must have his eye on eventually succeeding her as premier, or perhaps prime minister, of a newly independent Quebec. Why else would a man of his attributes get involved? Yet she brings him in anyhow, because he can help her, at least for now. So again, we see Marois is tough, bold, and a calculated risk-taker. She’s playing for keeps, and with a certain ruthless determination — at a time when the rest of the country is still looking elsewhere.

 

[Remius]

An interesting choice.  The problem that the PQ will now face is the fact that the Unions for the most part are no friends of Peladeau.  This might hurt Marois in the election.  In fact this may hurt her ability to get a solid majority.  It depends on how much of Peladeau they parade around.

As a side note: Although the PQ are enjoying solid polling numbers that suggest a majority it would seem that 60% of those polled are not keen on a referendum so we might not see those winning conditions any time soon...

 

[Remius]

To add and to correct what I wrote above, it would seem the PQ's polling numbers have dropped according to a new CROP poll published today.  The PQ and Liberals seem to be in a neck and neck tie for now.  Also note worthy is the fact the population seems dissatisfied with her leadership (58%).  As well, some 52% are still undecided or could change their minds.

It will be interesting to see if:

A) Peladeau's nomination will hurt the PQ, given that the leftists hate him and that they would normally back a PQ government.  The CAQ could benefit from thsi thus splitting the vote.

and

B) The upfront and honesty of the PQ in regards to a referendum (making it a mandate if they win) is scaring more Quebecers than they thought.  Although a significant amount of francophones support the whole Quebec identity agenda (like the values charter), it could be that the treat of a referendum scares turns them off more than the values charter turns them on.

Perhaps a majority isn't in the cards, which would be devestating for Marois and may open the door to a Peladeau leadership run...

 

[Edward Campbell]

You've hit on what's bothering me, Crantor. I know there are right wing sepratists ~ people who voted Oui in the sovereignty referenda but vote, consistently, against the PQ. I am pretty sure I've met and worked with a couple of them. I can understand M. Péladeau being a sovereignist, what I can't fathom is why he'd support the loony-lefty PQ; why wouldn't he start his own Oui/independentiste movement?

 

[George Wallace]

You've hit on what's bothering me, Crantor. I know there are right wing sepratists ~ people who voted Oui in the sovereignty referenda but vote, consistently, against the PQ. I am pretty sure I've met and worked with a couple of them. I can understand M. Péladeau being a sovereignist, what I can't fathom is why he'd support the loony-lefty PQ; why wouldn't he start his own Oui/independentiste movement?

Having more than one Oui/independentiste movement would only divide the vote and hurt both parties.  He likely sees a united front with a common goal as the most beneficial at the moment.  Your suggestion would be more of an "after secession" formation of a party system for the new 'nation'.