Latest stats: most civvie cas caused by Taliban

[The Bread Guy]

This, from the Canadian Press - highlights mine:

The insurgent war has taken a devastating toll on Afghan civilians this year, but the proportion of deaths caused by the international military coalition declined, latest United Nations figures show.

The numbers suggest efforts by coalition forces to minimize non-combatant casualties - a key Taliban propaganda tool - are paying off.

In the first 10 months of this year, a total of 2,038 Afghan civilians died in the ongoing conflict - almost 11 per cent more than last year, according to the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan.

About four times as many civilians were killed this year than coalition troops. Twenty-eight Canadian soldiers died in 2009.

It was not immediately clear if Canadian forces were responsible for any of the deaths.

"The impact the conflict is having on the Afghan people is increasing year by year," Aleem Siddique, chief UN spokesman in the war-wracked country, said in an interview from Kabul on Tuesday.

"The numbers speak to the difficult security situation and the increase in violence."

What the grim figures do indicate is that the proportion of civilians killed by insurgent action has risen to about 70 per cent from 55 per cent last year.

At the same time, the proportion of deaths at the hands of the international coalition has fallen by almost half - to about 20 per cent from 40 per cent ....

 

[Journeyman]

If there's absolutely no indication in the UN report that Canadians were remotely involved in any of these civilian casualties, is it "balanced" to phrase it as:

It was not immediately clear if Canadian forces were responsible for any of the deaths.

Personally, I have absolutely no evidence whatsoever, but it's not immediately clear that the reporter, Colin Perkel, doesn't sodomize sheep.  :

 

[The Bread Guy]

English attached as PDF - other languages available here.

My fave excerpt that isn't likely toi make it into MSM:

.... UNAMA recorded 784 conflict-related civilian casualties between August and October 2009, up 12 per cent from the same period in 2008. Anti-Government elements remain responsible for the largest proportion of civilian casualties (78 per cent of the total), of whom 54 per cent were victims of suicide and improvised explosive device attacks. The increased reliance of anti-Government elements on improvised explosive device attacks has demonstrated an apparent disregard for the loss of civilian life. However, it is encouraging to see that certain positive steps have continued to be taken by the Government and its international military partners to reduce the impact of military operations on the civilian population ....

More, from the UN News Centre:

.... Mr. Ban notes the insurgents’ intimidation and threats against civilians to discourage them from participating in the elections, targeting community leaders and clerics in particular, as well as slightly increased attacks against the aid community, a nearly daily occurrence. On average nine people were assassinated per week in the third quarter, one of whom on average was a community leader.

“The continuing high rate of direct intimidation of national staff working for the aid community, including the United Nations, continued to pose obstacles to programme delivery,” he writes. Following the 28 October attack by the Taliban on a guest house in Kabul where UN staff resided, killing five and wounding five more, some 340 UN international personnel have temporarily been relocated outside of Afghanistan ....

 

[The Bread Guy]

Well, if the TALIBAN says it's not true, it must not be, right?

"Response of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan to Banki Moon Assertions About Civilian Casualties" - PDF of statement at non-terrorist site here

.... Bank Moon should once sneak a look at  the Pentagon  to see that two departments under the name of Psychological Warfare and Lies Fabrication Department are now part and parcel of the official organizational set-up of the ministry. The Psychological Warfare Department teaches troops to kill civilians in order to create shock and awe in their hearts  so they submit to  the troops without demur. Whereas the Department of Lies Fabrication instructs the soldiers  to spread lies against the enemy in media and among the people so that they  distance themselves from the enemy and nurture hatred against them.  There is the secret of victory in doing so, it maintains.

It is a matter of pondering whether Mr. Banki Moon is acting intentionally or unintentionally in favor of the above-mentioned departments. This is because he, sometimes, gives expression to words which does not suit his position and neutral status ....

 

[The Bread Guy]

From the attached report:

.... Insurgent fighters and their associate militias killed at least three civilian people everyday from 1 January to 30 June 2010. In total insurgent groups are blamed for 661 civilian deaths in the reporting period.  The insurgents are clearly aware that at least two of their widely used warring activities - IED and suicide attacks - inflict heavy harms on noncombatants. However, they have brazenly disregarded calls to stop using indiscriminate IED and suicide attacks; show respect to civilian protection; and respect international humanitarian laws and other war laws .... Unsurprisingly, the number of civilian people killed by the insurgents was significantly higher than those killed by pro-government Afghan and foreign forces. ARM’s figures attribute 661 civilian deaths to the insurgents who have been accused of showing little or no respect to the safety and protection of non-combatants in their armed rebellion against the government and its foreign supporters. The indiscriminate and widespread use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) caused more deaths and miseries to Afghan civilians than any other fighting tactic. IEDs killed over 280 people, wounded over 490 and blocked communities’ access to essential health, education and livelihood services.  Suicide attacks were the second most deadly fighting incidents in which 127 noncombatants were killed in the first half of 2010. The June 9th purported1 suicide attack during a wedding ceremony in the Arghandab District in Kandahar Province, was the deadliest incident in the first six months of this year in which dozens of civilians, many of them children and women, were killed and wounded ....

 

[ettibebs]

<sarcasm> I'm shock!!! What a surprise!</sarcasm>

 

[vonGarvin]

But it's still NATO's fault.  I mean, if we weren't there, they wouldn't have to kill so many.  Just as 9/11 was our fault. I mean, if those buildings were a bit left or fight.....:

 

[The Bread Guy]

Better late than never - this from the New York Times:

International and local human rights groups working in Afghanistan have shifted their focus toward condemning abuses committed by the Taliban insurgents, rather than those attributed to the American military and its allies.

(....)

“NATO, in some cases they acknowledge their mistakes; to some extent they have taken positive steps in terms of reducing their impact,” said Ajmal Samadi, director of Afghanistan Rights Monitor. “On the insurgent side we don’t have any acknowledgment of the problem and instead we see a brazen continuation of their crimes.”

(....)

“We haven’t seen any change in the conduct of the Taliban since their  code of conduct,” said Ahmad Nader Nadery, a commissioner of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission.  “To the contrary, we’ve seen an increase in roadside bombs and suicide  attacks in places where there are civilian populations.”

(....)

“NATO, with the tactical directives, they’ve moved a long way,” said Rachel Reid, Human Rights Watch’s Afghanistan analyst. “It’s very possible to engage with them, even organizations like mine, they’ll meet with us and listen to our concerns.”  “There is a real need for more pressure and open dialogue with insurgent forces for their violations of the laws of war,” she said.

(....)

Here here.

 

[VIChris]

"Taliban officials reacted furiously to the report, denying its conclusion that insurgents caused most civilian deaths and proposing a “joint commission” between the United Nations and insurgents to study the problem."

Uh, sure, we'll get right on that. Just step into this cozy 8'x8' room, yes the one with the funny metal door, and we'll start studying shortly, sir.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Not entirely surprising, but shared nonetheless - this from the UN:

.... Anti-government elements were linked to 2,080 civilian deaths (75 per cent of all civilian deaths), up 28 per cent from 2009, while pro-government forces were linked to 440 civilian deaths (16 per cent), down 26 per cent from 2009. Nine per cent of civilian deaths in 2010 could not be attributed to any party to the conflict.

Suicide attacks and improvised explosive devices killed the most Afghan civilians in the conflict in 2010, taking 1,141 lives, or 55 per cent of civilian deaths attributed to anti-government elements.

In the most alarming trend, the report finds that 462 civilians were assassinated by anti-government elements, up 105 per cent from 2009. Half of civilian assassinations took place in southern Afghanistan, with a 588 per cent increase in 2010 in Helmand province and a 248 per cent increase in Kandahar province.

“In a year of intensified armed conflict, with a surge of activity by pro-government forces and increased use of improvised explosive devices and assassinations by anti-government elements, Afghan civilians paid the price with their lives in even greater numbers in 2010,” said Ivan Šimonovic, UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights.

Among tactics used by pro-government forces, aerial attacks continued to have the highest human cost in 2010, killing 171 civilians or 39 per cent of total civilian deaths linked to pro-government forces.

However, in spite of a significant increase in the use of air assets by pro-government forces in 2010, the proportion of civilian deaths attributed to aerial attacks by pro-government forces fell sharply by 52 per cent compared to 2009 ....

More in the news release here, notes from the news conference here, and the full report here (85 pg PDF).

 

[Gunner98]

Two relevant questions are:  Would these civilian casualties be higher or lower if ISAF was not there?  How much of the total is resulting from collateral damage from attacks against ISAF?

page 3/7 of UNAMA news conference link - "Since 2007, 9,000 Afghans civilians have died due to conflict. In 2010, 2,777 Afghan civilians have died due to the conflict - 75 per cent caused by the anti-government forces, and 18 per cent by pro-government forces and international forces. But numbers and statistics are useful for criteria, they don’t tell the story. They help us to understand the negative trend the situation is going toward, but behind the numbers and statistics are faces, these are human beings, these are Afghan civilians who now for 30 years have paid most of the price of any conflict in this country." 75+18 = 93, so 7% of the deaths could not be blamed on pro or anti forces.

From report page 20/85:
"Military Operations in Southern Afghanistan
The surge in both international military forces and offensive operations in 2010 focused on the southern region. Major operations to clear Taliban forces from central Helmand and the districts surrounding Kandahar City were widely viewed as key tests of the counter-insurgency strategy pursued by Pro-Government Forces. The Taliban responded by vigorously contesting attempts to expand government power including through a campaign of assassinations. The south saw 41 per cent of all civilians killed and injured across Afghanistan in 2010."

From page 21/85:
"In Helmand, civilian casualties increased dramatically (78 per cent compared to 2009 from armed clashes between the Taliban and Pro-Government Forces and assassinations), while, in Kandahar, deaths and injuries of civilians increased by only 11 per cent (although civilian casualties in
Kandahar were already high). The clearance operations by Pro-Government Forces in February 2010 in the central Helmand districts of Marja and Nad Ali were accompanied and followed by intense violence which accounts for a substantial portion of the overall increase in civilian casualties in that province. In contrast, clearance operations in the districts bordering Kandahar City — Arghandab, Dand, Panjwayi, and Zhari — between July and November 2010 did not lead to a similar spike in civilian casualties, although they resulted in large scale property destruction."

from page 22/85:
"Humanitarian Access
Civilians were severely affected by the conflict, not only through deaths, injuries and the pervasive atmosphere of intimidation but also through displacement, damage and destruction to property, loss of livelihood, lack of freedom of movement and lack of access to essential services such as health care, food and education. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 102,658 persons were displaced due to the conflict in 2010."

50:1 ratio of displaced persons to deaths, is this security assistance?

 

[The Bread Guy]

ST - of all the good points you make....

50:1 ratio of displaced persons to deaths, is this security assistance?

.... this one jumps out at me the most.  Is anybody asking similar questions?

 

[dapaterson]

ST - of all the good points you make........ this one jumps out at me the most.  Is anybody asking similar questions?

Ben Tre

The problem in entering conflict without well-defined national aims is that you end up with the situation "You broke it, you bought it."

What does "victory" for the US and other nations in Afghanistan look like ?


When we know that answer, we can judge the other information.

 

[The Bread Guy]

This, according to the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan:

May 2011 was the deadliest month for Afghan civilians since at least 2007, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said today. UNAMA documented 368 conflict-related civilian deaths in May and 593 civilian injuries.

“More civilians were killed in May than in any other month since 2007 when UNAMA began documenting civilian casualties,” said Georgette Gagnon, Director of Human Rights for UNAMA.

“We are very concerned that civilian suffering will increase even more over the summer fighting season which historically brings the highest numbers of civilian casualties. Parties to the conflict must increase their efforts to protect civilians now.”

Anti-government elements were responsible for 301 civilian deaths (82 per cent of all civilian deaths in May).

Forty-five civilian deaths (12 per cent of all civilian deaths in May 2011) were attributed to pro government forces.

Twenty-two deaths or six per cent of civilian deaths in May 2011 could not be attributed to any party to the conflict as most of these deaths were caused by crossfire.

Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) continued to kill and injure the most Afghan civilians in May taking 119 lives and causing 274 injuries (40 per cent of civilian deaths attributed to anti-government elements). These devices caused 41 per cent of all civilian casualties in May. The large majority of IEDs in Afghanistan are pressure-plate devices which are indiscriminate in nature. They are often placed alongside roads and in busy commercial areas thus leading to civilian casualties. The widespread use by anti-government elements of these weapons is a violation of international humanitarian law.

Ground combat by pro-government forces caused six percent of all civilian deaths in May ....

 

[The Bread Guy]

8 out of 10 figure confirmed by latest UN mission report (pg. 5 of attached):

.... 20. The protection of civilians remained a critical concern over the reporting period. UNAMA documented 2,950 conflict-related civilian casualties (including 1,090 deaths and 1,860 injuries of Afghan civilians), an increase of 20 per cent compared to the same period in 2010. Anti-Government elements were linked to 2,361 civilian casualties (80 per cent of the total number of civilian casualties), while pro-Government forces were responsible for 292 civilian casualties (10 per cent of the total number). The remaining 10 per cent could not be attributed. The rise in civilian casualties, following the Taliban’s announcement of a spring offensive on 30 April, was due in part to an expansion in the operations of anti-Government elements and pro-Government forces throughout the country, particularly in the north and in the regions bordering Pakistan.

21. The majority of civilian casualties occurred in the south and south-east regions. Improvised explosive devices planted along busy roads and suicide attacks by anti-Government elements in populated civilian areas accounted for the largest number of civilian deaths and injuries. Attacks targeting convoys, buildings and personnel of the Government and pro-Government forces, as well as civilian contractors providing logistical services to pro-Government forces, also resulted in increased numbers of civilian casualties. Despite the Taliban’s public statements that the offensive should target exclusively military objectives and ensure the protection of civilians, indiscriminate attacks against civilians continued. On 21 May, for example, the Taliban claimed responsibility for a suicide attack on a national army hospital in Kabul that killed six civilians and injured 23 medical students.

Intimidation, abduction and assassination of civilians associated with the Government and pro-Government forces increased, further violating the human rights of Afghans and slowing governance and development efforts.

22. Pro-Government forces continued to use air strikes and night raids to target anti-Government elements, sometimes resulting in civilian casualties and property damage. While ISAF and the Government made public apologies and considered compensation claims after such operations, these incidents continued to fuel tensions between pro-Government forces and local communities. Several violent demonstrations protesting civilian casualties and night raids occurred, with some
infiltrated by anti-Government elements and other groups, resulting in further civilian casualties ....

 

[toyotatundra]

I wonder if even the 82-12 ratio underplays the difference in moral character between the two sides.

After all, the Taliban faces a uniformed enemy visibly distinct from the civilian populace. Whereas, pro-government forces face an enemy who intentionally tries to blend into local populations.

 

[The Bread Guy]

8 out of ten civilian casualties still caused by bad guys according to latest stats out from UNAMA.

Also notice the trend in the attached graph - number of civvies being killed/injured by bad guys is growing, while number by good guys is dropping.  Wonder how much of THAT'll get into the mainstream media?

 

[ModlrMike]

Case in point:

Afghan officials say NOTO raid killed civilians.


Taliban stats... not so much.

 

[The Bread Guy]

At least one human rights group finally gets it - this from the head of the Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict ....

.... (Afghan President Hamid) Karzai's refusal to condemn Afghans for killing other Afghans highlights his shortcomings as a head of state. His public excuse for overlooking insurgent atrocities is that the Afghan people expect attacks from the Taliban. This may be true, but can he genuinely believe an Afghan mother's loss is somehow less tragic if the Taliban pulled the trigger? Or that she feels comforted to know that it was expected? .... When being sworn in for his second term, Karzai pledged "...to learn from the mistakes and shortcomings of the past eight years. It is through this self-evaluation that we can better respond to the aspirations and expectations of our people." Two years later, Karzai is practicing more self-protection than self-evaluation. His failure to provide Afghan forces what they need to protect Afghans and to speak out about Taliban behavior may help him walk a political tightrope, but it places him firmly on the wrong side of history.

Source:  Foreign Policy's AFPAK Channel blog, 26 Jul 11

 

[The Bread Guy]

Latest stats from the U.N.:  almost 8/10 civilian casualties in 2011 caused by the bad guys, with their total climbing, with good guy CIVCAS stats dropping (see attached graphs).

From the U.N.:

.... Anti-Government Elements caused the most Afghan civilian deaths in 2011 – 2,332 or 77 percent of all civilians who died in the conflict, up 14 percent from 2010. In addition, 410 civilian deaths (14 percent of the total) resulted from the operations of Pro-Government Forces, a decrease of four percent from 2010. A further 279 civilian deaths, or nine percent of the total, could not be attributed to a particular party to the conflict.

The record loss of Afghan civilian lives resulted mainly from changes in the tactics of Anti-Government Elements that used improvised explosive devices more frequently and more widely across the country, conducted deadlier suicide attacks yielding greater numbers of victims, and increased the unlawful and targeted killing of civilians. The effects of tactics of other parties to the conflict also influenced the number of civilians killed and injured ....

UNAMA news release - full report (54 pg PDF) here

Watch for a Taliban "the U.N. isn't really impartial about these things" statement soon....