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Election 2009?

....over at Elections Canada, according to the latest MERXINT.  Note to foil-hatters:  this appears to be routine "have vendors in place if/when" - from one of the postings:
.... This Request for Proposals takes into account that the date of the 41st general election is not known in advance. The work described is expected to be completed between the day the election is called and the 120th day after election day (a period of 168 consecutive days). Contractors must undertake to begin the work at any time between October 1, 2009, and March 31, 2011 ....

 
This, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, might be “good news” on two fronts:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ignatieff-hints-at-forcing-fall-election/article1235216/
Ignatieff hints at forcing fall election
Liberal Leader toughens line, as opposition MPs are tired of propping up Tories

Daniel Leblanc and Bill Curry
Ottawa
Thursday, Jul. 30, 2009

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff turned hawkish Wednesday and gave every indication that he wants to bring down the Harper government in the fall.

“I have always tried to work with the government, trying to put the country first, but it's getting tougher and tougher, and that's all I'll tell you right now,” Mr. Ignatieff told CTV News Channel.

The Liberal Leader did not say whether he would move a non-confidence motion when Parliament reconvenes in September, but he said it was “not an unreasonable extrapolation.”

The comments were a clear departure from Mr. Ignatieff's position a month ago when he made a deal with Prime Minister Stephen Harper to avoid a summer election. But there are signals that Mr. Ignatieff has heard the concerns of Liberal members who are tired of ensuring the survival of the Conservative government.

If the Liberals move against the Conservatives, Mr. Harper's survival will be in the hands of the NDP or the Bloc Québécois, neither of which has been inclined to keep the government in power.

The odds of a fall election went up after the Conservatives emerged from a two-day caucus meeting in Ottawa with a stinging attack on Liberal proposals to increase access to employment insurance. Human Resources Minister Diane Finley accused the Liberals of wanting to give access to all workers after 360 hours of work, down from the current minimum of 420 hours. In richer parts of the country, the minimum number of hours is 700.

“Nine weeks work just is not enough,” Ms. Finley said. “It's an academic fantasyland right now.”

Ms. Finley accused the Liberals of changing position from week to week, leaving little room for a compromise between the bipartisan committee created to look at ways of improving the EI program.

“One can get dizzy keeping up with their position on this,” she said. “Mr. Ignatieff is going to have to come forward with specific, detailed, financially responsible ideas that won't raise taxes for Canadians who can least afford it at this point in time.”

The Liberals have been complaining for months about the Harper government's handling of the stimulus package, the rising deficits and the medical isotope crisis. But the flashpoint for Mr. Ignatieff Wednesday was EI reform.

Mr. Ignatieff professed to be flexible on the exact number of hours to be eligible for EI, but he said he would not budge on the principle.

“It's not fair that what you can get out of the system depends not on what you put in, but where you live,” he said. “Unemployment is surging and we need a system that works for Canadians.”

Statistics Canada reported that the number of people receiving EI benefits climbed sharply in May, up 9.2 per cent from April and the highest since the federal agency began collecting such statistics in 1997. Some 778,700 people received benefits under the EI program in May, up by 65,600 from a month earlier.

With the economy dominating the news this summer, some Liberals have privately complained that Mr. Ignatieff has lacked media visibility. On CTV News Channel, he answered that he is working on policy proposals, which could be revealed during an election campaign.

“The only good thing I can say about bad weather and lots of rain is it allows me to sit at home and think thoughts here,” he said. “We're getting policy together. We've got an ambitious policy agenda for Canadians to present in the fall.”

The Liberals will get an opposition day in the House of Commons in late September, at which point they will be able to put a non-confidence motion to a vote.

The two good reasons for an election are:

1. Unnecessary ”stimulus” spending stops before too much is spent and it will be harder to restart when we are in the “recovery” mode; and

2. It is likely that we get another Conservative minority. Ignatieff had his chance, in the Spring; he blinked, he misjudged, and it is now too late to toss the Tories out because ”Tory time are hard times.” The Liberal Party of Toronto will get another chance to play the leadership sweepstakes.
 
1) Elections are often contests to pledge the most spending.
2) We already have a Conservative minority.

I can't think of any "good" reasons to hold an election.  All the reasons I hear and read are self-serving rationalizations by the parties and individuals who believe they see an opportunity to slightly shift the makeup of Parliament to their benefit.

The "good" reason to hold an election is when one or more of the parties have one or more major ideas worth putting to a popular vote.  Normally such ideas impose additional and significant costs, which means this is an inappropriate time.  That leaves the ideas which are not costly.  The "good" reason to hold an election at this time is to debate the linchpin of good governance: fiscal management.  None of the parties apparently has any stomach to explain how federal spending is going to be made commensurate with "average" revenues rather than the preceding 10-year boom.
 
Perhaps election fever in the Liberal ranks is being fanned by something else?

http://stevejanke.com/archives/290778.php

A cynical and slightly paranoid view of the Liberal Party leadership
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 at 10:18 AM
Comments: 5

Back in December, after Stephane Dion's disastrous video response to the question of a Liberal-NDP-Bloc Quebecois coalition, it is said that Michael Ignatieff mounted a bloodless coup.  Watching Ignateff marshalling his forces, Bob Rae conceded defeat before the race for a new leader even began.
Michael Ignatieff is the king of the Liberal mountain, right?

I've been giving this some thought, and I am beginning to wonder if something much more subtle is at play.  Whoever was going to take over from Stephane Dion was going to inherit a demoralized and bankrupt Liberal Party.  Of course, that person would be able to repair much of the damage, but then so would have a ham sandwich if one had been elected Liberal leader.  I mean, Stephane Dion was that bad.

Michael Ignatieff is much better than a ham sandwich, and it shows.  But despite the changing fortunes of the Liberal Party, their recent successes shine so brightly only in comparison with the Dion disaster.  In absolute terms, the Liberals have limped into a tie with a government that is ruling during a recession.  Really, Liberals are wondering just why they aren't firmly in the lead.

These same Liberals, smouldering after the chronic series of humiliations suffered during Stephane Dion's tenure as leader, are in no mood to show patience.  And yet Michael Ignatieff is turning out to be another Stephane Dion.

Over and over again, he has made loud noises about bringing down the Conservatives, and over and over again, he has very publicly backed down.

Liberals are in no mood to give Michael Ignatieff the time that was given to Stephane Dion to keep playing this game.  Stephane Dion was allowed to do this for two years.  Michael Ignatieff won't have nearly that much time, I think.

And yet any leader of the Liberal Party at this time would be in the same position, unable to mount an effective election campaign for a year or longer.  True, Michael Ignatieff has exacerbated the problem with his inability to shut the hell up, but if Bob Rae was leader, he would have also had to steer past opportunities to bring down the Conservatives while the Liberal Party attempted to repair itself.
Which got me to thinking.  What if Bob Rae willingly let Michael Ignatieff win?  I mean, I'm sure Bob Rae was planning for a leadership contest at first, but seeing the way the support was shifting to Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae in turn shifted his thinking.  Maybe the prize was not worth having at that moment.  Maybe the next leader of the Liberal Party was doomed, forced to spend time repairing the party while letting the Conservatives govern.  Damaged by that, and forced by impatient Liberals to fight another election quickly before the party was truly ready, that leader likely loses (though improves the seat count).  Now mortally wounded, the leader is dispatched, and a new leader is installed, with a repaired Liberal Party and a far better chance at winning the subsequent election.
So is Bob Rae letting this script play out?  Did he realize this was likely to happen, and so quickly abandoned the leadership race, so as not to accidently win?  Is he banking on Ignatieff failing within two years?  Could he even be quietly encouraging the hawks to organize and force Ignatieff to fight the election he can't win?

The election that Bob Rae does not want Michael Ignatieff to win?

Just a thought.  It is interesting that Bob Rae is almost never heard from.
 
Nanos aggress, as evidenced by this article, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s National Post:

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=1878868
Liberals and Tories in dead heat: poll
Harper still leads Ignatieff as best for PM

Megan O’Toole, National Post
Monday, August 10, 2009

The Tories and the Liberals are moving into a dead heat in public support as speculation swirls about a possible fall election, a new poll shows.

The gap between Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff as Canadians' preferred prime minister is also narrowing, with only about three percentage points separating the two federal leaders, compared with about five points in the spring.

The latest poll by Nanos Research, completed by a random sample of about 1,000 Canadians between July 30 and August 2, shows 33.8% of the electorate would cast a ballot for the Liberals, versus 31.3% for the Conservative Party. The numbers are considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

From a leadership standpoint, 29.5% of Canadians said Mr. Harper would make the best prime minister, while 26.2% opted for Mr. Ignatieff.

"What the polling shows is neither of the two major parties has any significant advantage," pollster Nik Nanos said on Monday. "Tough talk aside, it's really in the interest of neither of them to have an election. It would be risky for both."

Perhaps most worrying to the Conservatives, Mr. Nanos said, is while they are maintaining their solid base of western support, their numbers in the key battleground of Ontario dropped seven percentage points in the past month.

The New Democrats, however, appear to be gaining steam countrywide as the party works to craft a more mainstream image, even considering a name change to eliminate the word "new." Support for the NDP rose about two points from a month earlier, and leader Jack Layton's popularity received an equivalent boost.

While the party is still firmly in third place, noted Stephen Clarkson, an expert in Canadian politics at the University of Toronto, the NDP could be motivated to trigger an election should the upward polling trend continue.

There is a "considerable" chance that Canadians will head to the polls again this fall, he noted.

"It would be amazing if Harper could hang on longer," Mr. Clarkson said, "but you can't underestimate him."

Should a vote be called, Mr. Nanos said, both the Tories and the Liberals will have their work cut out for them. The Liberals would be wise to focus on conveying their vision for the country as a palatable alternative to the Harper government, as many Canadians do not have a sense of how Mr. Ignatieff would govern any differently, he said.

As for the Conservatives, favourable economic news would likely "pay dividends" as Mr. Harper could point to his successful leadership as having pulled Canada out of its economic slump.

Many citizens appear to have noticed the financial sea change, as the Nanos poll also found significantly fewer Canadians were preoccupied with the economy, just days after the Bank of Canada deemed the recession over.

About 30% of Canadians said jobs and the economy were the most important national issue of concern, while 26% pointed to health care. Since the beginning of 2009, concern over the economy has steadily dropped by about 20 percentage points, while health care has been "slowly climbing back up" as a traditional issue of concern, Mr. Nanos said.

Many Canadians are becoming "cautiously hopeful" that the worst of the economic crisis is behind them, he added, while others have simply become accustomed to the worsened fiscal climate.

"It's almost like being at war," Mr. Nanos said. "There's initial shock at the beginning in regards to the economic downturn and layoffs and disruption, but over time people just become desensitized after continuing to hear bad news."

National Post

motoole@nationalpost.com

This is the worst most hyped economic crisis since 1929. The Liberal Party of Canada ought to be poised to repeat 1935 when King gained 90+% in seats against R.B. Bennett’s Tories. It ought to be a slam dunk. But, it ain’t; instead, the Conservatives and Liberals are neck-and-neck and, worse, for Iggy, the economy is turning around; the worst is over.

In 1935 Canadians hated Bennett; they dislike Harper but it’s not the same, intensely personal antipathy Bennett enjoyed. King made himself likable, he campaigned as a moderate reformer with a modest but sensible plan to make things a little better. Iggy is not likable, he’s not modest, as ’tit Jean Chrétien was perceived to be. Harper, neither likable nor modest, either, is, however, perceived as being competent. Iggy is untested.

I think the Liberals should have pulled the plug on the Tories when they had the chance, in the late Spring. If they had we would likely have a popular Liberal government presiding over the recovery. Instead, even if we do have a fall election, we are going to have, in 2010 and, likely, in 2011 and maybe even in 2012, an unpopular Conservative minority government.
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail is yet further explanation of why Ignatieff waited too long and, now, should wait even longer:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ignatieff-earns-same-rating-as-dion-pre-election/article1248753/
Ignatieff earns same rating as Dion pre-election
Advisers fear Liberal Leader hasn't offer voters sense of who he is, how he diverges from Harper

Campbell Clark
Ottawa
Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2009

Look where Michael Ignatieff is now – right where Stéphane Dion was just over a year ago.

Two points behind the Tories in the polls, perhaps just a few months from an election, and so far unable to convert the groups of potential supporters – young, female, and urban – that Liberals typically need to win.

Mr. Dion's election debacle was followed by a further slide in the polls, to 24 per cent.

Mr. Ignatieff, as the new opposition leader, took the Liberals up to 35 per cent in May, and has drifted slightly down since.

His party now trails Stephen Harper's Conservatives by two percentage points, 32 to 34, according to a Strategic Counsel poll published in The Globe and Mail Tuesday .

But in June, 2008, the same pollster found Mr. Dion only two points behind .

That was before his Green Shift policy and a weak performance, exploited by Conservative ads, led 800,000 Liberal supporters to stay at home on voting day.

Mr. Ignatieff has returned the party's traditional core support levels – and revived it in Quebec – but the Strategic Counsel poll found they have lost the traditional edge among women, younger voters, and Canadians who live in cities and large towns, crucial to their hopes of victory. The NDP vote has remained firm.

“The Liberals have plateaued,” said The Strategic Counsel's Peter Donolo.

“The constituency that Ignatieff needs to rebuild is primarily more female, more urban, younger, centre and NDP voters.”

But those who don't back Liberals by reflex just haven't seen a reason to yet.

Some of Mr. Ignatieff's own advisers admit he has yet to offer a clear, defined political identity to grab them.

“They don't know who this guy is, and what he stands for,” said one, who only spoke on the condition that he not be named.

Most Liberals are wary of filling the gap by putting out detailed policy platforms, fearing it will make the same kind of target that Mr. Dion's Green Shift plan did, when it was released months before the campaign.

But they also fear Mr. Ignatieff hasn't given tentative voters any sense of his identity, and how it differs from Mr. Harper's.

One Liberal strategist noted that Jean Chrétien's winning 1993 campaign included policy details, but what mattered was the core message that he stood for jobs and growth.

“It was, ‘Buy me, and this is what you get. Jobs and growth,' ” the strategist said. “If you buy Liberal now, what do you get?”

Mr. Harper's Conservatives, under minority-Parliament pressure, have unveiled massive stimulus-spending packages, at the Liberals' insistence.

It has left Liberals searching for something to differentiate them.

The Liberals could view this as a reason to shift left, but most believe the perception that Mr. Dion's move left had opened them to Conservative attacks for the centre.

“Tacking left is almost too simplistic an approach,” Mr. Donolo said.

“You can represent values without being either right or left. You can polarize the vote over Stephen Harper without being doctrinaire.”

One chance that he and others cited as a lost opportunity for Mr. Ignatieff was the United States debate on health-care reforms.

When U.S. conservatives criticized Canadian medicare to attack President Barack Obama's plan, Mr. Ignatieff could have leapt to its defence to portray himself as champion of the Canadian institution.

Mr. Ignatieff's call on the government to review the sale of Nortel assets to a foreign buyer was cited by one adviser as that kind of values-defining sortie – a “Captain Canada” position – though Liberal critics say he should have done it sooner, and stronger.

His most noted stand, Mr. Ignatieff's call for national, lower qualifications for employment insurance, has some of his MPs fearing it will backfire.

“Eight per cent of my constituents are unemployed, but 92 per cent are working,” said one MP. “And they don't think that warmly of employment insurance.”

Two points:

Nortel could work for the Liberals IF they could make it an anti-American issue. But Ericsson is a Swedish multi-national with a large Canadian subsidiary, in Montréal and opposing the sale of Nortel’s LTE technology could backfire in Québec – which is notoriously sensitive to “threats” to its industrial base/jobs; and

EI is more attractive as a news story than as an election strategy. Harper can say: “We are already spending so much on “recovery” that we have to run deficits for several years. Now the Liberals want to spend even more and more and more of your money on months of EI benefits for a few people who only want to work for a few days.”

I have no doubt that the Liberals strategists can find an election winning tactical plan, but it will be an uphill battle against a skilled and determined “enemy.” A 2009 election is not, in any way, a sure thing for either party so, for Ignatieff and the Liberals, it is a bad bet. The case for forcing an election seems to me to rest, solely, on a need to make Iggy look stronger than Celine Stéphane Dion; that may be all it takes.
 
I do not get it, probably because I would never vote Lieliberal or NDP, but why is Mr. Harper not liked in Eastern Canada? Has he not bent over backwards for the East coast, Quebec and Ontario? "Liked'?? Is running this country a popularity contest? Unfortunately it appears that it is to just over 50% of Canadians who bother to vote.

Ignatieff is going to cry wolf once too often. It seems every couple of weeks he is going to bring down the government. The good reasons to hold an election for the LPC is power. They want it. The NDP; power. They want it. The LieLiberals will do what they do best: lie through their teeth with their little red books. They may win a slim majority, with the NDP holding the hammer. How about a LieLiberal/NDP coalition with Jack as Deputy PM? Say anything to get elected with no accountability.

The LieLiberals held true to form here in BC in the recent election.

Possibly it is time to find a job for 360 hours/9 weeks as a Wal-Mart host to supplement my retirement income. Just have to line up several employers to skip to every year when my EI runs out.
 
Rifleman62 said:
I do not get it, probably because I would never vote Lieliberal or NDP, but why is Mr. Harper not liked in Eastern Canada? Has he not bent over backwards for the East coast, Quebec and Ontario? "Liked'?? Is running this country a popularity contest? Unfortunately it appears that it is to just over 50% of Canadians who bother to vote.

The answer, I believe, is cultural, especially the "culture of entitlement". The current political setup is designed to siphon wealth from some regions of the nation to buy off other regions for political gain. Ontario has consented to be "siphoned" for generations as a price to pay for maintaining political and economic supremacy in Confederation. Quebec and the Maritimes have used wealth transfers to pay for the political ambitions of their own elites (otherwise the money spent would have made these parts of the country the richest by far). The West, having relatively few votes due to the lower population, hasn't been in a position to do anything effective about this until now.

Prime Minister Harper and the Conservative Party are the visible manifestations of the great social and demographic changes which are tearing these old patterns apart (Edward has spoken of this before), and the hatred of the MSM and traditional political parties is really based on the fact that Toronto is no longer the centre of the Universe (just like in the middle of the last century, Montreal woke up in surprise and discovered they were no longer the center of the Universe).

The realignment is still in the fluid and unstable phase, is the new center going to be centred on Alberta and its resource wealth or Vancouver and its access to the Pacific rim? (A silly distinction, of course, since each needs the other, but regional politics will have a huge effect on the future of Canada).

Other stressors include the urban/rural divide. Just like the United States, our "Progressives" tend to be concentrated in the urban regions while the "Classical Liberals" tend to be out in the more rural parts of the nation. (Check out the Red/Blue distinction in the United States. if you can find a map with very high granularity, you will see even in the "Blue" states, the blue ends at the suburbs.) This explains why the Liberals could run a potted plant in many Toronto ridings and win, and why the great battlegrounds for electoral politics is in the suburbs and exurbs (like the 905 belt and the "Tech Triangle" in Ontario). Here the argument is reversed, rural dwellers resent the seeming concentration of power in the cities (even though it is city ridings that are under represented), while cities and teir elites practice "tin cup federalism" and demand even more taxpayer support.
 
Thucydides said:
The answer, I believe, is cultural, especially the "culture of entitlement". The current political setup is designed to siphon wealth from some regions of the nation to buy off other regions for political gain.

And these transfers have done nothing to develop industry east of the Ottawa River and may contribute to continuing economic stagnation.

A couple somewhat relevant examples follow.  From the 16th century Spain relied on the gold and silver from its colonies to maintain a high standard of living and missed the industrial revolution which it really didn't join until it entered the European Economic Community. 

After WWI Germany had to provide reparations that included commodities.  As a result Germans mined coal for France while French workers didn't.  Also the only way for Germany to pay cash reparations was by exporting to its former enemies.  The money was not used to purchase French goods in return but was paid in cash.  The system was untenable and collapsed.

Simply put, you don't get something for nothing.  The US rust belt rusted while the New South with more pro-business politics thrived.  Creating a climate for business in world capital markets is more important for long-term economic success than any redistribution of income.
 
This article, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, suggests that the Conservatives may be to blame for the latest attack on Michael Ignatieff’s Liberal credentials:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/prankster-uses-bbc-address-to-harass-ignatieff/article1254993/
Prankster uses BBC address to harass Ignatieff
Ottawa — The Canadian Press
Monday, Aug. 17, 2009

An anonymous opponent is targeting Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff with a rather pricey political prank laundered through a BBC mailing address.

Members of the parliamentary press gallery recently received a mass mailing of plain brown manila envelopes (PDF), postmarked London.

Inside, without cover letter or explanation, was a colour reproduction of a critical, four-year-old Ignatieff profile in the British publication New Humanist – complete with particularly damning paragraphs highlighted in yellow.

The only clue to the mailing's origin was the London postmark and a return address sticker, which an Internet search quickly pinpointed as the location of BBC TV's head office.

The British Broadcasting Corp. dismissed the address as a subterfuge, noting all BBC correspondence uses franked envelopes – not the postage stamps found on the anonymous mailout.

“The BBC is a non-political organization so does not take a view on Canadian politics, so we would not comment further on this issue,” the BBC said by email.

The Liberal Leader's office assumed the Conservative Party was behind the mailing, albeit without any evidence.

“Between job losses, record bankruptcies and a spiralling deficit you would think the Conservatives would have more important things to do,” spokeswoman Jill Fairbrother said in an email.

The Conservative Party did not immediately respond to a media inquiry.

Whoever sent the envelopes had relatively deep pockets for a political prankster – especially considering the same Ignatieff profile can be found online for free. At about $3.30 per mailing, postage alone to reach the full Ottawa press gallery would cost more than $1,000.

A copy of the quite lengthy article follows.

I’m not so sure the Liberals are right. This doesn’t “smell” like a Tory attack. It appears to be from the left, not the right and my guess is that it comes from one of his many academic rivals within the Liberal Party of Canada.

If that is the case, if Iggy's enemies within his own party are on the hunt, then he may be provoked into forcing an election to head of an internal, LPC, civil war.
 
Here, in two parts, is a copy of the lengthy article referenced above:

http://newhumanist.org.uk/1299

Part 1 of 2

No more Mr Nice Guy: Laurie Taylor on Michael Ignatieff
Once a liberal pin-up and intellectual leader of the global human rights movement, Michael Ignatieff has now fallen out with some of his closest friends. Laurie Taylor tracks an acrimonious battle

Everyone knows Michael Ignatieff. Some first encountered him during the late 70s when his painstaking historical analyses of the evolution of the British penal system provided a valuable empirical complement (some would say antidote) to Michel Foucault's Discipline and Punish. Others will have come to respect him for his novels, family memoirs, or his outstanding biography of his great hero, Isaiah Berlin. Many more will remember the suave, querulous, intellectual contributions he made to BBC 2's culture-based talking shop, The Late Show. By the time that programme stuttered to a close in the mid-90s news of his fame had even made it back to his country of birth. In 1997 MacLean's magazine included him in its 'Top Ten Canadian Who's Who' and four years later exultantly promoted him to Canada's 'Sexiest Cerebral Man' because of "his made-for TV looks and effortless eloquence". What so endeared Ignatieff to the thinking classes was his cosmopolitan liberalism. His Russian family background, North American childhood and easy mastery of several languages seemed to qualify him as a citizen of the world. It was not too surprising, therefore, when he set off for what he described as "the landscapes of modern ethnic war" - Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia, Rwanda, Burundi, Angola, and Afghanistan - in search of an answer to a classic liberal question: why do we in the west feel that we have a moral obligation to become embroiled in the internal conflicts of distant lands? His answer helped to transform him into a leading figure in the human rights movement. We could, he argued, only overcome the ethnic particularism that lay behind so many of today's conflicts by treating others -whatever their religion, class, gender, race - as rights-bearing equals rather than as members of a group. Such whole-hearted advocacy of human rights meant that he was a natural choice for the prestigious post as Carr Professor of the Practice of Human Rights in the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

Yet this success story, of a liberal intellectual coming into his own, is rapidly turning very sour. Instead of being regarded as a champion of human rights, Ignatieff is now being seen, in the words of one senior academic, as 'a virus in the human rights movement'. Until recently this might have been written off as an intellectual spat. But recent events look likely to precipitate a full scale divorce between Ignatieff and his former colleagues.

It all began with an article on torture by Conor Gearty, Professor of Human Rights Law at the LSE, in the February 2005 edition of the Index on Censorship. Gearty's concern was to show the process by which a number of well-meaning liberal intellectuals and human rights lawyers had handed Donald Rumsfeld "the intellectual tools with which to justify his government's expansionism". He was particularly exercised by the manner in which such people had created a climate in which even torture could be condoned. One of the well-meaning liberals cited by Gearty in this context was Michael Ignatieff.

Ignatieff's response was as violent as it was unexpected. The harm done to his reputation by the article, he insisted, was so great that it could not even be remedied by the chance to rebut. He had no alternative but to resign immediately from the editorial and advisory board of the magazine and request that any syndication of Gearty's piece be withheld. This was "an issue of principle".What was the background to this outburst? Why exactly was Ignatieff so offended by an academic article? What does his response say about his present standing within the human rights movement?

Let us first examine the magazine. Index on Censorship was founded in 1972 by a group of writers, journalists and artists committed to chronicling free expression abuses wherever they occur. Michael Ignatieff is himself a member of its high profile editorial and advisory board, and its long list of distinguished contributors includes Vaclav Havel, Salman Rushdie, Doris Lessing, Noam Chomsky and the late Ken Saro-Wiwa.

For the magazine's first edition this year, the editor-in-chief, Ursula Owen, invited Stan Cohen, Professor of Sociology at the LSE, to guest edit a special section on torture. Its cover featured a disturbing image of half-naked blindfolded and shackled victims and the legend 'TORTURE: A USER'S MANUAL'. Stan Cohen himself wrote on the 'slippery slope that leads from Guantanamo to Abu Ghraib', while Conor Gearty's essay was headlined: 'With a little help from our friends. Torture is wrong and ineffective. So why is it making a comeback?'

Gearty began by considering the social and cultural ingredients that might allow a liberal democracy to forgo its traditional commitment to human rights to an extent that led it finally to condone torture. First into the mix was a category of persons he described as 'Rumsfeldians', individuals "distinguished by their determination to permit, indeed to encourage, the holding of suspected 'terrorists' or 'unlawful combatants'…in conditions which make torture, and inhuman and degrading treatment well-nigh situationally inevitable."

But Rumsfeldians could not transform liberal discourse on their own. They needed a great trauma like 11 September 2001 on which to feed and, crucially, they also needed some ideological support from apologist intellectuals and lawyers which would help to explain why there is no conflict between torture and our liberal code of laws.

It is at this point that Gearty rounds on Michael Ignatieff, who he describes as "probably the most important figure to fall into this category of hand-wringing, apologetic apologists for human rights abuses." What exactly had Harvard's Professor of Human Rights done to deserve such censure?

For the answer, we need to go back to the arguments that Ignatieff, following his tour of conflict zones, began to develop about the need for western humanitarian interventions in failed or terrorist-dominated states. He was far from alone in adopting this interventionist stance. Many other intellectuals and human rights activists found it possible to agree that there were circumstances under which an imperialism carried out in the name of human rights in such areas of conflict as Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan was not only defensible but positively to be welcomed.

But many such allies felt far less comfortable when Ignatieff went on to use the same argument to justify the second invasion of Iraq in March 2003. To go along with Ignatieff now meant bypassing the United Nations, ignoring the entreaties of former close European allies, and overlooking the failure to find any weapons of mass destruction. As the death toll mounted in Iraq, it also became necessary to argue that such extreme sacrifices were worth making if they contributed to the end of 'terrorism'.

Ignatieff confronted such moral reservations in 2004 with The Lesser Evil: Political Ethics in an Age of Terror. His preface outlined the key questions he would be addressing: "When democracies fight terrorism, they are defending the proposition that their political life should be free of violence. But defeating terror requires violence. It may also require coercion, deception, secrecy, and violation of rights. How can democracies resort to these means without destroying the values for which they stand? How can they resort to the lesser evil without succumbing to the greater?"

Even before the publication of The Lesser Evil, Ignatieff had attracted some powerful, if predictable, enemies. His justifications for the Iraq war had incensed many radicals. Michael Neumann, Professor of Philosophy at Trent University in Ontario, described the imperialist thesis as developed in Ignatieff's Empire Lite (2003) as "a web of foolishness, error and confusion". The argument that America was still the world's best hope for the spread of liberal democratic ideas was "built on sand" and his proposals for nation-building when stripped of "claptrap" were deeply flawed. They amounted, Neumann wrote, to this: "The US should, having first consulted its own interest, occupy 'failed states' and suppress disorder. Then, over what Ignatieff repeatedly emphasises is a long period of time, Americans are to teach these little folks abut judicial procedure, democracy and human rights. Then Americans will help their apt pupils to create sustainably democratic institutions."

But with the publication of The Lesser Evil in 2004, and a series of articles which expanded on aspects of the book's arguments in the New York Times, he also began to incur the wrath of liberals and, perhaps more significantly, former colleagues in the human rights movement. The critics began to line up. In a 2005 article called 'Exporting Democracy, Revising Torture: The Complex Missions of Michael Ignatieff', Mariano Aguirre concentrated particularly upon the seven pages in The Lesser Evil which dealt with the question of torture.

In this brief section, Ignatieff turns to the so-called 'ticking-bomb cases' where torture might be the only way to extract information from terrorists which could save human lives. He cites Harvard Law professor Alan Dershowitz, who had contended that "whatever we might think about torture in the abstract, the pressure to use it in cases of urgent necessity might be overwhelming. The issue then becomes not whether torture can be prevented but whether it can be regulated."

Ignatieff rejects this argument - "as an exercise in the lesser evil it seems likely to lead to the greater" - along with other justifications for the use of torture by democratic societies. Nonetheless - and this is critical to the argument that was to develop - he does go so far as to suggest forms of duress that might be permissible. These include "forms of sleep deprivation that do not result in harm to mental or physical health, and disinformation that causes stress."
Aguirre describes this style of argument as 'and yet and yet'. Ignatieff is "absolutely in favour of the principles and the defence of human rights, and yet, and yet, if a terrorist has valuable information about a biological weapon that is going to explode in New York, then maybe the security forces could use some level of force on him. Thus, the director of the Carr Centre for Human Rights Policy at the Kennedy School of Government in Harvard University becomes a sort of Bruce Willis figure."

This 'and yet and yet' approach, suggests Aguirre, is just what the US government needs as a justification for its current breaches of human rights. "Ignatieff considers himself a liberal, so sometimes he criticises the Bush administration. And he is an intellectual, so he has doubts about almost everything and airs them with the liberal readers of the New York Times. But in the end he shares the US government's vision of the violent and compulsory promotion of democracy, the war against terrorism and the use of instruments, for example torture, which are apparently in need of revisionist treatment." In these ways, "he has established a sort of rational framework for democratisation by force and also for the revision of our understanding of human rights."

But how is that revision managed? Gearty in his Index essay suggests that it depends upon a simple verbal shift: "The trick…is to take the 'human' out of 'human rights'. This is done by stressing the unprecedented nature of the threat that is currently posed by Islamic terrorism, by insisting that it is 'a kind of violence that not only kills but would destroy our human rights culture as well if it had a chance'. In these extraordinary circumstances, 'who can blame even the human rights advocate for taking his or her eye off each individual's puny plight, for allowing just a little brutality, a beating-up perhaps, or a touch of sensory deprivation?'. But once intellectuals do open this door then scores of Rumsfeldians pour past shouting 'me too' and (to the intellectual's plaintive cries of protest) 'what do you know about national security - go back to your class work and the New York Review of Books'."

Ignatieff is the best exemplar of this type of intellectual because of his apparently total commitment to the idea that we are now faced with 'evil' people and that unless we fight evil with evil we will succumb. It is precisely because we are democratic and special that, in Ignatieff's words "necessity may require us to take actions in defence of democracy which will stray from democracy's own foundational commitments to dignity." So occasional lapses in human rights can be excused as lesser evils. Gearty suggests that this is already providing an escape clause for those who torture. "If Abu Ghraib was wrong then that wrongness consisted not in stepping across the line into evil behaviour but rather allowing a 'necessary evil' (as framed by the squeamish intellectuals) to stray into 'unnecessary evil' (as practised by the not-so-squeamish Rumsfeldians)."

At no point does Gearty suggest that Ignatieff condones or favours torture. Indeed, for him to do so would be to destroy his entire argument: that intellectuals like Ignatieff are providing a moral framework for such practices by introducing concepts of 'good' and 'evil' into a previously secularised domain of discourse. Once this shift has been made, Gearty argues, we can say goodbye to the notion of universal human rights. After all, why should we extend the same rights to those who are good as those who are evil? "The wonder is not that we good guys abuse their human rights, but that we continue to use such language in relation to them at all, recognise that they have any residual human rights worth noticing."

Gearty and Aguirre are by no means alone in their concern about the manner in which Ignatieff's argument in The Lesser Evil provides a framework within which torture might be contemplated by liberals. A particularly hostile review in the New York Times in July 2004 by international relations professor, Ronald Steel, began with this acerbic summary of Ignatieff's thesis: "Michael Ignatieff tells us how to do terrible things for a righteous cause and come away feeling good about it." Ignatieff may tell us that the lesser-evil position lies in never losing sight of the "morally problematic character of necessary measures," argues Steel, "but is it really true that an evil act becomes lesser simply because it is problematic? Does suffering a twinge of bad conscience justify what we do in a righteous cause? It is comforting to think so, but saying 'this hurts me as much as it does you' is neither true nor considered an excuse."
What most of these critiques of The Lesser Evil have in common is the uneasy sense that Ignatieff, despite his constant cautionary remarks and reluctant asides ('and yet and yet') is in the dangerous business of providing rationalisations which only need to be stretched a further inch or two before they become 'permissions' for those who feel that human rights are contingent or expendable in the war against terrorism.

But none of this explains how Ignatieff could have interpreted Gearty's Index on Censorship essay as an assertion that he was in favour of torture, nor the intemperance of his email to Ursula Owen, a friend of long standing. Gearty, he insisted, in spite of the clear textual evidence to the contrary, had not read what he, Ignatieff, had written. By suggesting that he was in favour of torture he had delivered a blow to his reputation of such severity that he must now ask for his name to be removed from the editorial board of the magazine. He went on to ask Owen to ensure that the piece would not be syndicated elsewhere because it is 'factually false'. If it had already been sold then she must send a copy of this present letter to the editors concerned in the hope that this will help "to undo the damage you have already done to my reputation".
 
Part 2 of 2

Ignatieff does admit that he cannot expect any "immunity from criticism" as a friend of the magazine, but surely any "person, friend or not, whose views and moral reputation are attacked in this form is entitled to elementary exercises of editorial due diligence. If your editorial staff had spent five minutes checking Mr Gearty's insinuations against the text of my book, they could have spared me this insult to my reputation and might have protected your editorial reputation as well."

Owen replied to Ignatieff regretting that Gearty's piece had caused him quite so much distress. She had realised that he might like to respond to the article but never expected him to be so outraged and insulted as to reject the standard form of academic response. Gearty had not accused him of supporting torture, on the contrary, he specifically says of Ignatieff that 'he does not approve of the use of torture'. All he had said was that Ignatieff's position provided a moral framework for others to do so. "It seems to him that to hold such a position is to render less than definitive the accompanying rejection of torture." She concluded by hoping that Ignatieff would change his mind and reply to Gearty's piece in the next edition of the magazine.

Gearty was very satisfied with this response. "I think your summary is exactly right…the piece…is not about the torturers per se but about liberals whose position leaves room for others, more brutal than them to act." But he was clearly still stung by the severity of Ignatieff's attack. "I think [Ignatieff] should be a bit more specific about what exactly in the text so misrepresents his position, in particular where it is 'factually false'. This is a very serious allegation to make against me…On its face it is defamatory."

Ursula's response failed to have a calming effect. Ignatieff replied promptly. "The moral framework claim is not an argument but an insinuation that proceeds to link me with others, as you say 'more brutal' than myself'. This is what is called guilt by association, and if you cannot see that this is how you and he are arguing, I cannot argue with you."

The feeling that further argument was fast becoming pointless was not confined to Ignatieff. If he was unable to tell or to accept the difference between an opinion and an insinuation then there seemed nowhere for the debate to go. As Gearty himself put it in a further email to the editor: "As for answering him, well he has said nothing yet. Perhaps he will treat my opinion seriously, in which case I will have a chance to reply. But I can't reply to mere vulgar abuse of which there has been a great deal, so far anyway."

Neither could Ignatieff obtain satisfaction elsewhere. After the first response from the editor he turned to the guest editor of the torture edition, Stan Cohen, another long-standing friend, and expressed the hope that he at least had not aligned himself with those on the magazine who wished to harm his reputation. Cohen immediately wrote back, gently averring that he regarded Michael's reputation as too intact to require any such protection. Neither could he agree that the article had been "a vindictive attack on [Ignatieff's] moral character, nor evidence of editorial negligence, nor a factual distortion". I am sure you are wrong in refusing to publish a response to the article. I very much hope you will change your mind."
There is one word which resonates throughout this episode - 'reputation'. Ignatieff uses it four times in his original letter of complaint and then returns to the subject again in his correspondence with the guest editor.

To some, this concern about 'reputation' is best explained by a bizarre development in Ignatieff's career path: his apparent new interest in pursuing political office in his home country of Canada. When this rumour first began to circulate there was widespread scepticism. But this was soon swept aside by the proliferation of 'informed' newspaper articles on Ignatieff's new ambitions. "If the political supporters of Michael Ignatieff have their way," wrote the Boston Globe on 19 July this year, "the human rights scholar and journalist may soon abandon his post as director of Harvard's Carr Centre for Human Rights Policy and enter the political fray." Neither would Ignatieff confine himself to running for parliament at the next Canadian election. "Power brokers have recruited Toronto-born Ignatieff to return to Canada … with the intention of grooming him to succeed Prime Minister Paul Martin." This theory has been reinforced by the recent announcement that Ignatieff is leaving Harvard to take up a year-long post at the University of Toronto. The Toronto Star on 26 August, suggested this is a prelude to a bid for leadership of the Liberal Party. Many Canadian pundits have been hailing Ignatieff, with his looks, charm and intelligence, as a liberal gift from heaven: another Pierre Trudeau.

Not everyone was so excited. Internet discussion forums revealed serious doubts about Ignatieff's credentials for such a job. Some objections were predictably crude. "This asshole has some nerve; leave the country for 30 years to take the cushy job at Harvard, and then this prick has the auducity (sic) to come crawling back expecting to be Prime Minister?" Others were less than excited by his political record. "Mr Ignatieff, professional mental gymnast and idea contortionist, lost his Canadian moorings long ago - about the same time he lost his ethical moorings and set out his shingle as 'mind for hire'." And then there was the inevitable: "In his writings for a US audience, he has acted as an apologist not only for the invasion of Iraq, but also for torture."

So could political ambition, the desire to have a clean public image, be an adequate explanation for Ignatieff's over-dramatic reaction to Gearty's carefully-reasoned, if provocative, article in Index? After all, he had not reacted half as aggressively to harsher evaluations of his writing on torture in other more widely circulated publications. It's true that his original letter of complaint spoke of the "uniquely painful shock" of being called "one of torture's new best friends" in a magazine in which he was listed on the editorial and advisory board. But his association with the magazine might have equally well inclined him to accept what Gearty had to say in good faith and encouraged him to sit down and compose an adequate response to the alleged misrepresentations. Why the dramatic resignations and the sweeping attacks upon Gearty as a purveyor of the "factually false"?

There is a more subtle explanation for the outburst. Ignatieff has used Freudian insights to good effect in the past. In Warrior's Honour he employs what Freud called 'the narcissism of small differences' to explain some of the irrationality that has characterised recent ethnic conflicts. Perhaps, therefore, it is appropriate to suggest that there might be some sign of 'reaction formation' in his most recent fulminations. He'd been quite prepared to accept the dirt dished by the left over his support for the Iraq war but now he found himself being attacked by those who had always constituted his principal reference group: liberal academic human rights practitioners. He was in danger of losing that which he had once loved. What better emotional defence against such a loss than the realisation that these former friends and colleagues published falsehoods, lacked "editorial due diligence", and were incapable of understanding rational argument? Who would want to associate any longer with such a tarnished coterie? Time for Prince Hal to shrug off such flawed associates and prepare for office in Canada.

There is one other possible explanation for Ignatieff's swingeing attack upon Index and all its works. For years he managed to present himself as an apostle of universal liberalism. His record in this respect earned him some tolerance when he frist came out in support of the second Iraq war. But even this tolerance started to wear thin when he embarked upon a series of articles for the New York Times Magazine which were even more stridently pro-war and pro-Bush. On 2 May 2004, he could be found in those pages arguing for new forms of coercive interrogation. "Permissible duress might include forms of sleep deprivation that do not result in lasting harm to mental health or physical health, together with disinformation and disorientation (like keeping prisoners in hoods) that would produce stress." It was unfortunate, to say the least, that this article was already printed and on its way to the distributors when the first pictures came through from Abu Ghraib prison, one of which showed a hooded Iraqi standing on a box.

America's historic role was now defined, with reference to Jefferson, as bringing democracy and freedom to the world and anyone who refused to go along with that project could be written off as back-sliders. "The French used to talk about exporting Liberté, Egalité and Fraternité, but nowadays they don't seem to mind standing by and watching Iraqi democrats struggling to keep chaos and anarchy at bay."

All this might have been meat and drink to the neo-conservatives and military officers with whom Ignatieff enjoyed conversations at Harvard. But it was a step too far for his former human rights colleagues. Ignatieff was no longer merely a supporter of a war to get rid of the tyrant Saddam; he was now an active proselytiser on behalf of all American interventionism. The new US empire's "grace notes", he declared "are free markets, human rights and democracy, enforced by the most awesome military power the world has ever known". His outraged response to the Index article was perhaps an acknowledgement that he could no longer keep his former colleagues on board. The circle could no longer be squared.
Meanwhile, the editors are still waiting for Ignatieff to respond to their renewed request for a written response to Gearty. So far, there is only silence.
 
Ignatieff seems to have painted himself into a corner, and I think it's going to be more than a 15 second soundbite to get himself out.....
 
Tories changing election tune to stress majority
Daniel Leblanc and Campbell Clark
Article Link

Ottawa — From Thursday's Globe and Mail Last updated on Thursday, Aug. 20, 2009 09:12AM EDT

The Conservatives are breaking their own taboo by starting to call on Canadians to award them a majority government in the next election.

The tactic will be part of an appeal for stability in a recession if the opposition defeats the government in the Commons early this fall, a year after the last election.

The Conservatives expect to contrast their call for a majority with two other potential scenarios they hope will prove less appealing: a Liberal minority and a Liberal-NDP coalition.

The Harper Conservatives have long kicked themselves for asking for a majority in the 2004 election, which they narrowly lost, believing it caused many skittish voters to turn back to the Liberals. In the two elections since, in 2006 and 2008, they have tried to dispel qualms about a Conservative majority, or avoid the word entirely.

But Conservatives are spelling out their wishes for a stable, majority government at partisan rallies this summer.
More on link
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail is another guesstimate about what might trigger a fall election:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/review-of-cost-analysis-of-ei-reform-could-set-the-stage-for-a-fall-election/article1259259/
Review of cost analysis of EI reform could set the stage for a fall election
Ignatieff has opportunity to put forward a no-confidence motion in late September if he is not happy with the working group's results

Gloria Galloway
Ottawa

Friday, Aug. 21, 2009

Liberals have stroked the potential trigger of a fall election by asking Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page to examine what they say is an inflated Conservative cost analysis of their plan to revamp employment insurance.

Conservative and Liberal MPs who are part of a working group formed to discuss changes to the EI system said progress was made at a closed-door session Thursday. They agreed to get together again in two weeks for another round of negotiations.

Liberal Human Resources critic Mike Savage, one of the working group's co-chairs, said bureaucrats have been asked in the meantime to work on some proposals “that might move the ball.”

But Mr. Savage has also written a letter to Mr. Page requesting an assessment of Conservative calculations that peg the cost of the Liberal proposal to create uniform national standards for EI qualification at up to $4-billion.

“They torqued it up beyond belief,” Mr. Savage said of the Conservative figure. He has asked that Mr. Page's analysis be completed by the end of August and that it be made public.

Mr. Page responded to Mr. Savage's request by asking the Human Resources Department for the data, analysis and assumptions that were used to calculate the cost of the Liberal plan.

Pierre Poilievre, a Conservative member of the working group, dismissed the move to bring in Mr. Page, saying, “We already have a costing.” The Liberals, he said, “are shopping around for a different number that suits them.”

He called the Liberal plan both “expensive and irresponsible.”

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has the opportunity to put forward a no-confidence motion in late September if he is not happy with the working group's results.

The EI Working Group was established in June to explore ways to improve fairness in EI eligibility and to examine the potential for bringing self-employed Canadians into the EI system.

There are currently 58 different regional standards for EI eligibility. A person has to have worked anywhere from 420 to 700 hours in the previous 12 months, depending on the regional unemployment rate, to collect benefits.

The Liberals want to lower the number of hours of work required to 360, a measure that they say would cost an additional $1.5-billion a year. They say, however, that they're flexible on what the qualifying level should be.

The government, at the request of the working group, agreed to determine how much it would cost if the work requirement were set at such hourly levels as 390, 420 and 560. But Human Resources Minister Diane Finley told the meeting yesterday that she had asked her officials to stop that work because the government was not going to support a national standard, the Liberals said.

NDP Leader Jack Layton, whose party initially proposed the 360-hour standard, has said
repeatedly that he will vote against the Conservative government on any matter of confidence. Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe has been less unequivocal but he, too, supports the Liberal proposal on employment insurance.

That means any Liberal confidence motion is likely to push the country into an election.

The Globe and Mail reported yesterday that the Conservatives have started to call on Canadians to give them a majority government in the next election.

Conservative talking points sent yesterday to Tory MPs said the Globe story contained false analysis and speculation. It warned against suggesting that the government wants an election this fall.

“It is essential that all Caucus members and activists remember that we are NOT – repeat NOT – pushing for a fall election. We are focused on the economy. We are focused on implementing our economic action plan,” said the memo.

“We will not and should not encourage speculation about a fall election.”


I assume that the Good Grey Globe meant to say that ” Mr. Page responded to Mr. Savage's request by asking the Human Resources Department for the data, analysis and assumptions that were used to calculate the cost of the Liberal Conservative plan.”

I still think that, since 92% of Canadians do not collect EI, it is a weak election issue.

I remain convinced, as a Conser4vative partisan, that an election is welcome because:

• It brings the entire stimulus package to a grinding, shuddering halt – much of it never to be restarted; and

• It is highly unlikely to return a Liberal government. Thus it will throw the Liberal leadership back into disarray.

 
I twigged on the Liberal instead of Conservative plan as I read the story. On reflection, I think the story is right. He is requesting an analysis of the study that lead to what the Grits obviously feel are high ball figures for their 360 hour across the board proosal. Just wondering if using the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) to undertake what is a partisan task is within his terms of reference. It probably would be another thing if the request came from a parliamentary committee, but that is just a guess.

Having said that, assuming that poll numbers same approximately the same, what happens:

a. if the data requested is delayed so that the PBO analysis can not be completed and verified before  late September, the Liberal's first opportunity for a non confidence motion;

b. the PBO analysis shows that the figures cited by the Conservatives fall within the range of possibilities given the data used;

c. the PBO demonstrates that the Liberal figures are too low; or

d.the panel reaches a rough consensus except for the widegap in party figures?
 
Sorry Old Sweat I hurt my brain trying to extrapolate the four choices into real politik.
As Edward says I can't believe Iggy is actually going to run an election on EI, shades of Dion's Green Plan.
It's time Ignatieff started presenting himself and his reasons for voting in a Liberal government.
 
You would hope that many of the 92% of Canadians who do not collect EI would not want their EI deductions increased to make the standard 360 hours.  It is a system originally established by the LPC.

I thought Gloria Galloway was married to LPC hack of some sort.
 
Old Sweat said:
... assuming that poll numbers same approximately the same, what happens:

a. if the data requested is delayed so that the PBO analysis can not be completed and verified before  late September, the Liberal's first opportunity for a non confidence motion;

They have two choices:

1. Find another, better issue, and force an election. This will be a desperate gamble for power before the economy is chugging along, again and Canadians will see it as that; or

2. Wait until there is something useful that can be used against Harper and the Tories.

b. the PBO analysis shows that the figures cited by the Conservatives fall within the range of possibilities given the data used;

Find another, better issue, and force an election. This will be a desperate gamble for power before the economy is chugging along, again and Canadians will see it as that.

c. the PBO demonstrates that the Liberal figures are too low; or

Change the subject, quickly then find another, better issue, and force an election. This will be a desperate gamble for power before the economy is chugging along, again and Canadians will see it as that.

d. the panel reaches a rough consensus except for the widegap in party figures?

Change the subject, quickly then find another, better issue, and force an election. This will be a desperate gamble for power before the economy is chugging along, again and Canadians will see it as that.

--------------------

Waiting is, I think the toughest choice for the Liberals. If the recession is, indeed, almost over – no serious double dip – then they have to go NOW! Otherwise Harper says, “Look. I carefully steered us through the big, bad recession. Don’t I remind you of Paul Martin? A skilled fiscal manager, trustworthy and so on?”

I still think going to polls on more pogey for more Maritimers is a bad idea, but, as a Conservative partisan I hope the Liberals give it a try. I expect it to “earn” the Liberals a very few more seats in Atlantic Canada and Québec and cost them many more in Ontario and BC.

Iggy misjudged the economy in the Spring. He coulda, shoulda forced an election then; he might have won a minority of his own. I suspect some (many?) Liberals are already mistrustful of his political judgement.
 
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