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Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

mariomike

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I kinda just have one question through all this.....so will all those that said during years 2016 to 2020 that President Trump shouldn't be Prez because he lost the popular vote now stand up and say the same thing about PM Trudeau??

Rhetorical...dont answer please
Since you decided to inject the former guy into Canadian Politics,
Difficult to easily compare voting trends vs results with a Westminster Parliamentary system, against a perpetual two-party republic where the presidential candidate must win an outright majority of something to get the spot.
We have been down this road before regarding the popular vote in Canadian elections,
 

Altair

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This election has shown how spoilt and vapid most Canadians are. Most the issues and problems that were debated are things that should be a personal responsibility, not the governments (many of them being issues that belong at the Provincial level as well). This election is leaving me questioning if universal suffrage is really working for us. When too many people are taking from the system and have no skin in it, we are left with the types of problems we are currently facing.
Silly Canadians wanting governments to address issues in their day to day lives, like healthcare, the pandemic, childcare and housing.
Political parties only reflect what the population desires in a democracy, and when the truly important things such as debt management,
Our credit rating hasn't dropped.
human rights,
Canadians don't care about foreign policy. I don't think we really ever have. Correct me if I'm wrong.
and such aren't the priority we are in for a world of trouble. Blatant lies,
Some people just call this campaigning.
creation/tolerance of crime to suit a political agenda,
no idea what you mean.
ignoring basic rights (how many politicians campaigned against Quebecs anti-'religious symbol' law)
Quebec used the notwithstanding clause to avoid judicial scrutiny thus making it a fait accompli. Not to mention it's rather popular in that province.

And rather than being a recent phenomenon, it's just a longstanding Canadian tradition of throwing linguistic and religious minorities in that province under the bus in order to curry favor with Quebec nationalists. Bill 101 anyone? That's not a recent creation. Been on the books since 1977.
, scapegoating innocent citizens to suit agendas (firearms being the easiest example), etc..
Canadians in urban Canada like gun control and 80 percent of Canadians live in what is considered to be a urban center.
Irresponsible governments lead to great suffering long term. When the government only thinks in 4 years cycles and re-election but doesn't care about anything beyond that we are witnessing the failings of democracy in action.
So we have been watching the failings of democracy for a hundred years then.
It would be interesting to see what would happen if the seats were rebalanced a bit to reflect the population more (such as how Alberta is under-represented, when Quebec is over-represented), however that is unlikely to happen well it benefits the government in power.
The seats will be redistributed in 2024.

It's done by a independent commission and based on the census.

Alberta is in line to get 4 more seats.

Quebec is losing 1, Ontario is gaining 1, BC is gaining 1. There is literally a formula for this, so all the bellyaching is a little much.


Quebec
8,500,000 ÷ 38,800,000=22.3

77÷343=22.4

Alberta
4,400,000÷38,000,000=11.5

38÷343=11

So within half percentage point of their population and Quebec likely being right on the dot.

Add this to our present parliament and you get what?

Bloc or CPC likely losing a seat, as it's rural Quebec getting smaller, not urban montreal.

Ontario gaining 1, so one of the NDP, LPC or CPC getting a seat.

CPC getting 4 seats, and I'm being generous here as they have shown they can lose in urban Alberta.

And 1 of NDP CPC or LPC getting 1 more seat in BC.

LPC 158-160

CPC 123-125

Bloc 33-34

NDP 25-27

So no great change.
 

Remius

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Except its not just Toronto and Vancouver, most urban centers are getting unaffordable. So what, should everyone in a urban center just move to the countryside? Will the jobs follows? Or is everyone just going to hit the nearby towns within driving distance and then those prices shoot up?

So its much less of a stupid choice situation and much more a lack of supply/affordability issue.

Not to mention that jobs that exist in Toronto may not exist in Calgary or Edmonton. Or people have spent countless years working their way up in their job may not wanting to start all over.
We’ll sort of. People do in fact move to the countryside to find affordable housing. In the Ottawa area at least a lot of those nearby towns are getting unaffordable. But one factor driving this move to the countryside is also COVID related. A lot of sectors don’t need people on site and can work from home and will likely remain that way. Many people would prefer the rural life but work and jobs force them Into urban centres. My parents just sold their house in a small community (in Lanark County) outside Ottawa for 1.2 million to a family from Toronto who work remotely now.

The post pandemic world may see an increase in rural living or people just staying and working from whatever little town they may be from.
 

Altair

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We’ll sort of. People do in fact move to the countryside to find affordable housing. In the Ottawa area at least a lot of those nearby towns are getting unaffordable. But one factor driving this move to the countryside is also COVID related. A lot of sectors don’t need people on site and can work from home and will likely remain that way. Many people would prefer the rural life but work and jobs force them Into urban centres. My parents just sold their house in a small community (in Lanark County) outside Ottawa for 1.2 million to a family from Toronto who work remotely now.

The post pandemic world may see an increase in rural living or people just staying and working from whatever little town they may be from.
Yes, but, and there is a big but here, people moving to the countryside should relieve pressure on housing in the urban area.

It's not. Prices are still rising in the urban centers, with the only change being prices are also rising in the outlying regions.

The pressure on the housing market isn't shifting, it's just spreading, which is only compounding the issue.
 

Remius

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Yes, but, and there is a big but here, people moving to the countryside should relieve pressure on housing in the urban area.

It's not. Prices are still rising in the urban centers, with the only change being prices are also rising in the outlying regions.

The pressure on the housing market isn't shifting, it's just spreading, which is only compounding the issue.
And there is nothing any federal party can do to really fix that. It’s municipalities that need to loosen the zoning rules and enable more product to get out. I may be off, but most municipalities have a bit of a leftist slant. Green spaces, bike lanes, public transit, libraries. All good things but they are very bad at urban planning and getting housing right.

The liberal plan to make it easier to buy a home is just going to put more buyers in the market increasing demand and does not address the actual issue of supply. And don’t get me started on the house tax plan. Or their I’ll thought out flipping rule.
 

Altair

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And there is nothing any federal party can do to really fix that. It’s municipalities that need to loosen the zoning rules and enable more product to get out.
Canadian municipalities are relatively powerless in comparison to the federal government.

they are also the ones constantly crying out that they are starved of the money needed to provide for their citizens.

A balanced approach of arm twisting and carrot dangling might be enough for some city councils to loosen zoning restrictions.

I may be off, but most municipalities have a bit of a leftist slant. Green spaces, bike lanes, public transit, libraries. All good things but they are very bad at urban planning and getting housing right.

The liberal plan to make it easier to buy a home is just going to put more buyers in the market increasing demand and does not address the actual issue of supply. And don’t get me started on the house tax plan. Or their I’ll thought out flipping rule.
Every party focused on demand side in their promises because it's the most immediate thing they can do. Getting supply rolling will take a little bit.

But the LPC did have some supply side proposals in their plan.
 

suffolkowner

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The amount of sprawl that's been allowed is crazy. Everyday I can drive by a farmers field being turned into a subdivision while you can drive by empty lots in the city. Not really a federal issue in my mind other than how the federal government subsidizes infrastructure projects, the Bank of Canada approach to bond markets, and maybe the amount of security that the federal government provides banks to engage in their various adventures. I tend to favor a move to land tax valuation system and even stricter zoning rules. We're in a speculative bubble right now in my opinion, you could easily substitute tulip bulb for house. I can easily see a look at the capital gains exemption for housing for one as a means of exerting some control on this issue and the other it is just too much revenue escaping the governments grasp
 

Altair

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The amount of sprawl that's been allowed is crazy. Everyday I can drive by a farmers field being turned into a subdivision while you can drive by empty lots in the city. Not really a federal issue in my mind other than how the federal government subsidizes infrastructure projects, the Bank of Canada approach to bond markets, and maybe the amount of security that the federal government provides banks to engage in their various adventures. I tend to favor a move to land tax valuation system and even stricter zoning rules. We're in a speculative bubble right now in my opinion, you could easily substitute tulip bulb for house. I can easily see a look at the capital gains exemption for housing for one as a means of exerting some control on this issue and the other it is just too much revenue escaping the governments grasp
People keep saying this, but what other level of government is equipped to deal with this issue?

It's a nationwide issue, so one province doing one thing will not help others in another province, and this goes 1000fold for municipalities. If Laval loosens housing restrictions but montreal does not you just have the laval housing market go nuts.

Same for Peel region and Toronto.

Like it or not, the Feds are best equipped to deal with this right now IMHO.
 

Altair

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I kinda just have one question through all this.....so will all those that said during years 2016 to 2020 that President Trump shouldn't be Prez because he lost the popular vote now stand up and say the same thing about PM Trudeau??

Rhetorical...dont answer please

About that popular vote....

I hope the networks didn't call any close races too quickly, because the LPC are getting 4 out of 10 mail in votes.
 

suffolkowner

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On the actual election it seems like a loss for all involved. No majority for the Liberals, no gain for the Tories or NDP, no seats for the PPC, a clear step back for the Greens. I think the turning point seemed to be the first french debate and the gun control issue, up until then the Conservatives were polling well and had momentum after which the Liberals kept gaining steadily. As much as I want the Conservatives to be a real alternative to the Liberals nationally, they can't be a carbon copy of the Liberal party from a policy/values side. They have to stand for and represent something.
 

Altair

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On the actual election it seems like a loss for all involved. No majority for the Liberals, no gain for the Tories or NDP, no seats for the PPC, a clear step back for the Greens. I think the turning point seemed to be the first french debate and the gun control issue, up until then the Conservatives were polling well and had momentum after which the Liberals kept gaining steadily. As much as I want the Conservatives to be a real alternative to the Liberals nationally, they can't be a carbon copy of the Liberal party from a policy/values side. They have to stand for and represent something.
I think the English debate was the turning point.

The bloc were losing q percentage point a week in the polls until Shachi Kurl insinuated that Quebec is racist.

After that the bloc reversed all those losses.

It's not inconceivable that the bloc could have lost 10 seats to the LPC making this parliament look like the LPC at 168 seats.
 

suffolkowner

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People keep saying this, but what other level of government is equipped to deal with this issue?

It's a nationwide issue, so one province doing one thing will not help others in another province, and this goes 1000fold for municipalities. If Laval loosens housing restrictions but montreal does not you just have the laval housing market go nuts.

Same for Peel region and Toronto.

Like it or not, the Feds are best equipped to deal with this right now IMHO.
Municipalities are creations of the Province and zoning and taxation in that respect are under their control/influence. If the province allows radically different solutions and plans in neighbouring municipalities that's on them not the Federal government. I've already detailed what I think the Federal government could/should do, I'm not sure what else they can?
 

suffolkowner

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I think the English debate was the turning point.

The bloc were losing q percentage point a week in the polls until Shachi Kurl insinuated that Quebec is racist.

After that the bloc reversed all those losses.

It's not inconceivable that the block could have lost 10 seats to the LPC making this parliament look like the LPC at 168 seats.

I can't say I'm that focused on Quebec, just going off some of the polls I looked at, and even conversations with people after that specifically brought up the gun issue

 

Fabius

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There is some thinking here that is really unfortunate I think and will come back to haunt this country.
Having the CPC abandon any difference from the LPC in order to win in the three big cities is a power/ego centric view in my mind. I thought diversity was our strength, just not of political thought I guess.

Similar vein, why is it a problem if one party can't break into the urban areas but not a problem if another party can't break into rural areas? Why is being completely shut out or almost so in one region a problem for a party but not another? Again if the answer is obtaining power that's one thing but its not the way to a stable, harmonious nation state. Right now I only see one party even attempting to bridge a gap.

I don't expect this will change but the Federal Government Executive is not charged with Bread and Circus. Peace, Order and Good Government are its things, and honestly its failing on all fronts. However those things are not things that get or keep you elected so instead we have a focus on Bread and Circus and stuff that is more properly the purview of the Province and/or municipality, any expansion of the structural deficient is almost certainly related to bread and circuses.

Finally, the LPC Gun Control policies are divisive both regionally and urban/rural are not conducive to Peace, Order or Good Government and are completely partisan politics and no the CPC should not maintain them in their current form.

What should the LPC give up to achieve a better percentage of the vote?
 

Altair

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Municipalities are creations of the Province and zoning and taxation in that respect are under their control/influence. If the province allows radically different solutions and plans in neighbouring municipalities that's on them not the Federal government. I've already detailed what I think the Federal government could/should do, I'm not sure what else they can?
One thing I think they can do is provide stable funding for cities. Cities have limited revenue collecting ability. So let's take something like the carbon tax, which the Feds say 90 percent is returned to citizens in form of rebates.

Take half of what remains, 5 percent, and give it to the cities each year to help out their budgets. In return a city has to show where they are loosening zoning restrictions. If they don't, more money for those that do.
 

SeaKingTacco

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Municipalities are creations of the Province and zoning and taxation in that respect are under their control/influence. If the province allows radically different solutions and plans in neighbouring municipalities that's on them not the Federal government. I've already detailed what I think the Federal government could/should do, I'm not sure what else they can?
Probably not much, really. It is typical of Canadian federal elections get fought on Provincial and Municipal issues, because Canadians generally have a poor understanding of who is Constitutionally responsible for what.

There are areas of housing concern that are directly under federal control: first nations and the CAF.

If the feds were to go on a housing blitz on both reserves and on bases (such that there was a PMQ for each CAF member and expectation that you would move from PMQ to PMQ, instead of receiving real estate and legal fees each posting) it could make at least a small difference in some markets. The feds should also review the real estate portfolio that they control in cities across Canada to see what might be suitably turned into housing stock.
 

suffolkowner

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One thing I think they can do is provide stable funding for cities. Cities have limited revenue collecting ability. So let's take something like the carbon tax, which the Feds say 90 percent is returned to citizens in form of rebates.

Take half of what remains, 5 percent, and give it to the cities each year to help out their budgets. In return a city has to show where they are loosening zoning restrictions. If they don't, more money for those that do.
loosening what zoning restrictions? The zoning is approved by the province first and last though so the province has to be on board. To me this is covered by infrastucture funding or equivalent
 

Altair

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There is some thinking here that is really unfortunate I think and will come back to haunt this country.
Having the CPC abandon any difference from the LPC in order to win in the three big cities is a power/ego centric view in my mind. I thought diversity was our strength, just not of political thought I guess.
Diversity is our strength but parties need to be electable.
Similar vein, why is it a problem if one party can't break into the urban areas but not a problem if another party can't break into rural areas? Why is being completely shut out or almost so in one region a problem for a party but not another? Again if the answer is obtaining power that's one thing but its not the way to a stable, harmonious nation state. Right now I only see one party even attempting to bridge a gap.
The LPC is winning in rural maritime and some rural Quebec ridings, so they are not being shut out.
I don't expect this will change but the Federal Government Executive is not charged with Bread and Circus. Peace, Order and Good Government are its things, and honestly its failing on all fronts. However those things are not things that get or keep you elected so instead we have a focus on Bread and Circus and stuff that is more properly the purview of the Province and/or municipality, any expansion of the structural deficient is almost certainly related to bread and circuses.
How is housing and childcare being equated with Bread and circuses?
Finally, the LPC Gun Control policies are divisive both regionally and urban/rural are not conducive to Peace, Order or Good Government and are completely partisan politics and no the CPC should not maintain them in their current form.
Yet, when the issue of getting rid of the OIC came up, the CPC quickly changed its stance on the issue.

Gun control policies are popular. If the people didn't want them, the politicians would push them, and the CPC wouldn't back down on the matter

What should the LPC give up to achieve a better percentage of the vote?
They made their electoral strategy pretty clear. They will give Quebec a lot to try to squeeze out the extra 12-15 seats they need for 170. But they don't really need to get much more rural ridings than they already do.

What's the CPC path to 170?
 

Altair

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loosening what zoning restrictions? The zoning is approved by the province first and last though so the province has to be on board. To me this is covered by infrastucture funding or equivalent
Hey, it's one less obstacle in the way of getting more supply on board. If city councils don't allow it it matters little if the province approvals it or not.

The feds have more direct sway with the provinces anyways
 

suffolkowner

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Hey, it's one less obstacle in the way of getting more supply on board. If city councils don't allow it it matters little if the province approvals it or not.

The feds have more direct sway with the provinces anyways
I'm just not clear on what the obstacle is exactly? The province can override, overrule and impose on municpal zoning decisions and official plans anytime they want not neglecting the fact that those plans had to have been previously approved in the first place
 
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