Alberta Election (2015)

[Edward Campbell]

It's a mandate - anything around 40% in Canada is so - but vote splitting is in clear evidence.  I expect the NDP will be out if - and only if - the PC and Wildrose recombine.

Spending in rural areas seems disproportionately high because urban areas need food, lumber, concrete, petroleum products, electricity, steel, etc.; and these things are not to found in sufficient quantity in urban areas and the residents would not tolerate the industry necessary to turn the raw materials into finished goods regardless.  The urban tax money spent in rural areas is chiefly for the benefit of the urban areas.  No-one should delude themselves otherwise in pursuit of some infantile ideological talking point.

I agree but the analyses I have read suggest, to me, that the PCs and Wildrose have some deep and bitter differences and that reunification is going to require new, better leaders in both parties.

History suggests the Progressive Conservatives are dead in Alberta, but conservatism is still alive and well. My reading of the historical entrails suggests, to me, that the some, (six or eight) PC MLAs should ~ in the interests of the province ~ do a Danielle Smith and cross the floor earlier rather than later.

 

[Rocky Mountains]

In my opinion there are few significant differences between the Wildrose and PCs.  I don't think there would even be a Wildrose Party if the PCs weren't running massive deficits when oil was over $100 per barrel and super-massive deficits with oil bottoming out close to $40.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

BC and Saskatchewan real estate are about to go on a tear...

Already started ....

 

[Brad Sallows]

>I agree but the analyses I have read suggest, to me, that the PCs and Wildrose have some deep and bitter differences and that reunification is going to require new, better leaders in both parties.

Concur.  This has the same general appearance as 1993.  One of the factions (the "establishment") among the "Progressive" conservatives gets too clever by half and too complacent and too dismissive of the other faction(s), and the party splinters.

Thus I disagree with the "quitter" assessment of Prentice.  His decision is refreshing.  He put his ideas and time on the table, and the voters - urban and rural - swiped left.  He is near 60, he has skills in demand, and the NDP has a decisive majority.  It's a waste of his time to hang around warming an opposition bench (not even the Oppo Leader's chair).  It's pathetic to hang around waiting as if it's the CO's chair in a militia regiment with too many majors.  There is no decent interval required before resigning.

Alberta conservatives now need someone who fits the Harper template - some ideas on governing the province, some ideas for reuniting the right, a willingness to risk some years on the project, and enough years ahead to do so.  Prentice is not that person.

 

[X Royal]

What I've not seen in this thread is any comment on how this election result may play in the next federal election.
Yes federal and provincial politics are not the same but similar voting trends do exist. Pissed off at a provincial party can carry over to the federal party and when the elections happen somewhat close to each other this can be more relevant.
If the federal Conservatives lose some of their(notice I said some not all)western support/seats it will surely hurt their chances in the next federal election.
Quebec and urban Ontario are not a hot bed for the Conservatives. Generally southern rural Ontario is a Conservative supporter but that isn't a lot of seats compared to the urban seats and those in the northern part of Ontario.

 

[Kat Stevens]

What I've not seen in this thread is any comment on how this election result may play in the next federal election.
Yes federal and provincial politics are not the same but similar voting trends do exist. Pissed off at a provincial party can carry over to the federal party and when the elections happen somewhat close to each other this can be more relevant.
If the federal Conservatives lose some of their(notice I said some not all)western support/seats it will surely hurt their chances in the next federal election.
Quebec and urban Ontario are not a hot bed for the Conservatives. Generally southern rural Ontario is a Conservative supporter but that isn't a lot of seats compared to the urban seats and those in the northern part of Ontario.

I would think that PM Harper shit a very large and sharp cornered brick at this result.  This is his Base of Operations, and a hard swing to the left is not going to be any help to him.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Is Wildrose running federal candidates in AB?  If not, are Wildrose voters more likely to back Liberals or Conservatives?

What was the percentage sum of Wildrose and PC support?

 

[Alberta Bound]

Brad S,

So you volunteer to fix a problem,  use an autocratic style that offends all your subordinates and when toppled from your throne you decide that the minions don't appreciate you and scurry into the night. Without so much as leaving some plan for your loyal followers to carry on.

You find that "refreshing". Interesting leadership style. Interesting mind set. I would like to see any circumstance where that would be the preferred style.

 

[Alberta Bound]

Albertans will always have the rural - urban back and forth. But the rural areas often did well under the PCs. Many miles of well paved roads even to lower population areas. Airports with paved strips and small terminals where other provinces would never pay for them. Not many people flying to Manning AB. Hospitals in many of those same small communities when it didn't financially make sense Grimshaw AB 20 kms from another hospital in Peace River AB. Provincial Bldgs all over the place with space to spare. Plus more.

Poor future planning put the province in a bind. Poor politicking put the PCs out the door. They just couldn't stop drinking their own ............... cool aid.

 

[Brad Sallows]

"So you volunteer to fix a problem,  use an autocratic style that offends all your subordinates and when toppled from your throne you decide that the minions don't appreciate you and scurry into the night. Without so much as leaving some plan for your loyal followers to carry on.

You find that "refreshing". Interesting leadership style. Interesting mind set. I would like to see any circumstance where that would be the preferred style."

Don't try to decide for me what parts of the whole episode I found "refreshing" if you didn't understand what I wrote.  What I found refreshing is his decision to resign and move on without tarrying to no purpose.  The rest is all yours if you want to address it.

The voters don't like him - we know that.  Why they don't like him is beside the point.  Again, what is refreshing is that he is moving along quickly.  If he is the problem, followers (loyal or otherwise) don't need him poisoning the well and leaving a "plan" for them to execute.

With respect to that point alone - departing immediately when you have failed, and not burdening those left behind with a legacy of your failure - I have a strong preference.  I can't imagine any circumstance in business or war in which the "preferred style" expected of a sacked CEO or commander is to leave a set of instructions for his successor to follow, or expect his legacy and vision to be protected.

 

[Zartan]

"So you volunteer to fix a problem,  use an autocratic style that offends all your subordinates and when toppled from your throne you decide that the minions don't appreciate you and scurry into the night. Without so much as leaving some plan for your loyal followers to carry on.

You find that "refreshing". Interesting leadership style. Interesting mind set. I would like to see any circumstance where that would be the preferred style."

Don't try to decide for me what parts of the whole episode I found "refreshing" if you didn't understand what I wrote.  What I found refreshing is his decision to resign and move on without tarrying to no purpose.  The rest is all yours if you want to address it.

The voters don't like him - we know that.  Why they don't like him is beside the point.  Again, what is refreshing is that he is moving along quickly.  If he is the problem, followers (loyal or otherwise) don't need him poisoning the well and leaving a "plan" for them to execute.

With respect to that point alone - departing immediately when you have failed, and not burdening those left behind with a legacy of your failure - I have a strong preference.  I can't imagine any circumstance in business or war in which the "preferred style" expected of a sacked CEO or commander is to leave a set of instructions for his successor to follow, or expect his legacy and vision to be protected.

You do realise he was running for election to the Legislature, not President of the United States? He won his seat by a large margin (perhaps the PC's largest, not sure), and immediately resigned it rather than serving in the opposition. His former constituents are rightly livid at his bad faith, his lack of sense of duty, and I don't think the PCs have a snowball's chance in the looming by-election.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I would think that PM Harper shit a very large and sharp cornered brick at this result.  This is his Base of Operations, and a hard swing to the left is not going to be any help to him.

Not to mention the morale boost the left across Canada gets (hard to quantify, I know, but I don't think zero) from knowing "if Alberta can kick out the Tories/elect the NDP, it might happen elsewhere."  I doubt one will lead to the other, but it will sure crank 'em up.

Also, this may give the federal Tories something to think about re:  maybe having to spend more resources/energy to keep seats in AB than they've had to in the past.

 

[Alberta Bound]

Brad

He ran for MLA, he won. So doing the job he was elected to do is beneath him?

He told Albertans that if he was their Premier he was going to follow the plan he laid out. Albertans before the election said very strongly they agreed with most of his plan but strongly objected to a couple areas. In a couple areas he changed his plan. In areas where it involved business he flatly refused to change his plan.

Alberta voters strongly decided his refusal to amend his plan was incorrect for Alberta.

He was still an MLA and a voice for his constituents and a champion of his beliefs. 

Maybe he honestly thought the honourable thing was to quit instantly. Why don't more losers do that?

Maybe he didn't think the optics for himself and the PCs would be him running away in the dark so that he would not have to assist the incoming govt and face the NDP.

I wonder why all the other non reflected MLAs didn't simply quit the party immediately along with those that did get reelected but will no longer be in the majority.

Hmmm.

 

[Kat Stevens]

I personally think this is a case of a petulant child throwing his teddy out of the pram, and in the next few days he will come to regret a knee jerk reaction.  I'm no Prentice flag waver, and frankly think he got exactly what he had coming with his "relax, I got this" approach to the whole election.  The people who elected him to a seat have the right to expect him to show up and do the job he applied for, naive as it may be of me to think so.

 

[Rocky Mountains]

The socialists have a real problem.  The PCs governed like NDP.  Prentice increased every tax but income tax and oil royalties.  His budget also had a $5 billion deficit.  The public service is already grossly overpaid compared to the rest of Canada.  The NDP made a lot of promises and owe a lot of debts.  If they actually deliver anything, we're screwed.

 

[Kirkhill]

Just a reminder - we've had bad governments before and we're still here.

Bastards still keep making idiotic decisions - but I have managed to raise a family paying taxes to a variety of governments all over Canada and even in the States, despite the rules made by idiotic bastards.

We'll just have to try and reduce the damage at the next opportunity. 

 

[dapaterson]

Just a reminder - we've had bad governments before and we're still here.

Bastards still keep making idiotic decisions - but I have managed to raise a family paying taxes to a variety of governments all over Canada and even in the States, despite the rules made by idiotic bastards.

We'll just have to try and reduce the damage at the next opportunity.

I think that was the thought process of many in Alberta - after 44 years, they looked in the mirror and didn't like what they saw.

 

[ModlrMike]

I saw this commentary yesterday. Now, accepting that he's engaging in a good deal of hyperbole, if even half of what he fears comes true it could be hard times ahead indeed.

I wouldn't invest in NDP's Alberta: O'Leary

On the flip side, there's this:

Prentice will be Prime Minister one day: Doak

 

[KJK]

I don't think Mr. O'Leary's comments are too far off the mark. Look what happened when Stelmach did his royalty reviews. Oil company spending stopped cold. These major projects take many years from concept to completion. Why would you attempt to build one when the taxes and royalties could change every year. Especially when BC and SK have stable royalties and more business friendly governments. Add to this mess a glut of oil in North America......

A more interesting question for me anyway is: If Notley and her SJW destroy the economy of AB who is going to be a 'Have" province in Canada? Who is going to be generating the money to send to these provinces who are addicted to AB's oil revenue? If I were a Premier of one of these provinces I would be very concerned. Who knows, maybe 1-2 of them may become 'Have' provinces and end up paying rather than receiving.

 

[Kirkhill]

Few would mistake me for an NDP apologist but:

On the subject of royalties didn't Ms. Notley say something to the effect that she was going to empower a People's Commission to review the royalty structure and determine if Albertans were getting value for money.  I believe that could be seen as the NDPs version of kicking the subject into the long grass.  (If they were Tories it would be a Royal Commission ....hmm ....Prediction: 2 years of deliberations by well paid party faithful followed by a recommendation to change "royalties" to "peopleties".)