time expired said:
This thread was started as a discussion of the chances of a German
invasion given the situation as it existed in 1940 but seems to have
degenerated into an alternative history forum,interesting but not
very relevent to discussion at hand...
I would argue that any discussion of "what would have happened if..." is the same as a "what if..". I mean, the Wehrmacht did NOT attempt an invasion of the UK. Would it have succeeded? Well, the only way to go down that route is to say "what if.."
For example
"What if the Wehrmacht seriously planned to invade the UK? How would the preparations have been different? Could they have pulled it off?"
That is the jist of this discussion. Now, I maintain that even mounting an invasion was impossible. Period. Now, inject the first diversion, that is, somehow make Hitler really really want the UK occupied. Now what?
Some would say "the Germans would have had no chance." I say "Poppy cock". Here's why: in war there are so many variables that there is no "certain thing". To illustrate, suppose that for some reason you and I are sitting in an internet chat room in February, 1940. We are talking about the Sitzkrieg, and what the prospects are for the Germans. I say to you "The Germans will invade through Belgium and Holland, and in
ten days will have the entire BEF backed up against the channel, along with a large French force. Then, one month after that, France will surrender. Six weeks is all they need." You would have called me a noob and told me to quit trolling. There was NO WAY that Germany, with its inferior quality and number of tanks, and its inferior number of planes, could even pull ANYTHING like that off. As for Belgium, Eben Emael will stop any invading force long enough to allow reinforcements to come up. And the Maginot Line is IMPREGNABLE.
See what I mean? Innovation is a concept of war that is hard to factor. Could the Germans have seized a port in some sort of Trojan Horse operation? Maybe. And if they did, imagine ship after ship unloading tank after tank. Yes, the RAF comes in, but guess what, the Luftwaffe is ready. And so on and so forth.
So, never say never.