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Lebanon (Superthread)

CanadaPhil

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Well folks, it looks like more of the same from the land of lunacy:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&u=/nm/20060712/ts_nm/mideast_dc_274

Looks the extremists have now proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that there will NEVER be any kind of meaningful peace in this region.
 
I see the possibility of Israeli operations in Lebanon and Syria against terrorist camps.
 
Humm they had better becarefull as they may become over streched as the U.S. is now.
 
Ever since they got surprised in the Yom Kipper War, they've always adjusted their forces to be able to respond effectively on 3 fronts. I see they have called up the reserves, which dramatically increases their manpower/abilities
 
GAP said:
Ever since they got surprised in the Yom Kipper War, they've always adjusted their forces to be able to respond effectively on 3 fronts. I see they have called up the reserves, which dramatically increases their manpower/abilities
So has the US,granted they a have shorter battle front's but the what if is if the they ignite the whole of the middle east what's next?
 
It sounds more like, having had their asses handed to them in Afghanistan (Canadians don't need to be a part of the US war, we have no quarrel with Canada = we are getting our asses kicked), and the restructure of Iraq in spite of all they can do to stop it (most "insurgents" are foreign nationals), Al-Queda et al have decided to attack Israel to see if they can provoke an invasion of Syria.  Remember, it's all a US/Jewish consipiracy in their eyes...so attacking Israel is a local way of irritating the US.

All the US has to do is let Israel take care of their own affairs and clean house, and the problem will go away.  Well, it will never go away, but we can ensure that the tactic doesn't work.

 
Israel is mobilizing reserves for a big push into Lebanon and perhaps take a side trip to Damascus. Iran has set the wheels in motion for all out war which will see their clients destroyed and Iran's regime losing face in the muslim world.
 
Another Stratfor special
www.stratfor.com


Middle East Crisis: Backgrounder
Israel lives with three realities: geographic, demographic and cultural. Geographically, it is at a permanent disadvantage, lacking strategic depth. It does enjoy the advantage of interior lines -- the ability to move forces rapidly from one front to another. Demographically, it is on the whole outnumbered, although it can achieve local superiority in numbers by choosing the time and place of war. Its greatest advantage is cultural. It has a far greater mastery of the technology and culture of war than its neighbors.

Two of the realities cannot be changed. Nothing can be done about geography or demography. Culture can be changed. It is not inherently the case that Israel will have a technological or operational advantage over its neighbors. The great inherent fear of Israel is that the Arabs will equal or surpass Israeli prowess culturally and therefore militarily. If that were to happen, then all three realities would turn against Israel and Israel might well be at risk.

That is why the capture of Israeli troops, first one in the south, then two in the north, has galvanized Israel. The kidnappings represent a level of Arab tactical prowess that previously was the Israeli domain. They also represent a level of tactical slackness on the Israeli side that was previously the Arab domain. These events hardly represent a fundamental shift in the balance of power. Nevertheless, for a country that depends on its cultural superiority, any tremor in this variable reverberates dramatically. Hamas and Hezbollah have struck the core Israeli nerve. Israel cannot ignore it.

Embedded in Israel's demographic problem is this: Israel has national security requirements that outstrip its manpower base. It can field a sufficient army, but its industrial base cannot supply all of the weapons needed to fight high-intensity conflicts. This means it is always dependent on an outside source for its industrial base and must align its policies with that source. At first this was the Soviets, then France and finally the United States. Israel broke with the Soviets and France when their political demands became too intense. It was after 1967 that it entered into a patron-client relationship with the United States. This relationship is its strength and its weakness. It gives the Israelis the systems they need for national security, but since U.S. and Israeli interests diverge, the relationship constrains Israel's range of action.

During the Cold War, the United States relied on Israel for a critical geopolitical function. The fundamental U.S. interest was Turkey, which controlled the Bosporus and kept the Soviet fleet under control in the Mediterranean. The emergence of Soviet influence in Syria and Iraq -- which was not driven by U.S. support for Israel since the United States did not provide all that much support compared to France -- threatened Turkey with attack from two directions, north and south. Turkey could not survive this. Israel drew Syrian attention away from Turkey by threatening Damascus and drawing forces and Soviet equipment away from the Turkish frontier. Israel helped secure Turkey and turned a Soviet investment into a dry hole.

Once Egypt signed a treaty with Israel and Sinai became a buffer zone, Israel became safe from a full peripheral war -- everyone attacking at the same time. Jordan was not going to launch an attack and Syria by itself could not strike. The danger to Israel became Palestinian operations inside of Israel and the occupied territories and the threat posed from Lebanon by the Syrian-sponsored group Hezbollah.

In 1982, Israel responded to this threat by invading Lebanon. It moved as far north as Beirut and the mountains east and northeast of it. Israel did not invade Beirut proper, since Israeli forces do not like urban warfare as it imposes too high a rate of attrition. But what the Israelis found was low-rate attrition. Throughout their occupation of Lebanon, they were constantly experiencing guerrilla attacks, particularly from Hezbollah.

Hezbollah has two patrons: Syria and Iran. The Syrians have used Hezbollah to pursue their political and business interests in Lebanon. Iran has used Hezbollah for business and ideological reasons. Business interests were the overlapping element. In the interest of business, it became important to Hezbollah, Syria and Iran that an accommodation be reached with Israel. Israel wanted to withdraw from Lebanon in order to end the constant low-level combat and losses.

Israel withdrew in 1988, having reached quiet understandings with Syria that Damascus would take responsibility for Hezbollah, in return for which Israel would not object to Syrian domination of Lebanon. Iran, deep in its war with Iraq, was not in a position to object if it had wanted to. Israel returned to its borders in the north, maintaining a security presence in the south of Lebanon that lasted for several years.

As Lebanon blossomed and Syria's hold on it loosened, Iran also began to increase its regional influence. Its hold on some elements of Hezbollah strengthened, and in recent months, Hezbollah -- aligning itself with Iranian Shiite ideology -- has become more aggressive. Iranian weapons were provided to Hezbollah, and tensions grew along the frontier. This culminated in the capture of two soldiers in the north and the current crisis.

It is difficult to overestimate the impact of the soldier kidnappings on the Israeli psyche. First, while the Israeli military is extremely highly trained, Israel is also a country with mass conscription. Having a soldier kidnapped by Arabs hits every family in the country. The older generation is shocked and outraged that members of the younger generation have been captured and worried that they allowed themselves to be captured; therefore, the younger generation needs to prove it too can defeat the Arabs. This is not a primary driver, but it is a dimension.

The more fundamental issue is this: Israel withdrew from Lebanon in order to escape low-intensity conflict. If Hezbollah is now going to impose low-intensity conflict on Israel's border, the rationale for withdrawal disappears. It is better for Israel to fight deep in Lebanon than inside Israel. If the rockets are going to fall in Israel proper, then moving into a forward posture has no cost to Israel.

From an international standpoint, the Israelis expect to be condemned. These international condemnations, however, are now having the opposite effect of what is intended. The Israeli view is that they will be condemned regardless of what they do. The differential between the condemnation of reprisal attacks and condemnation of a full invasion is not enough to deter more extreme action. If Israel is going to be attacked anyway, it might as well achieve its goals.

Moreover, an invasion of Hezbollah-held territory aligns Israel with the United States. U.S. intelligence has been extremely concerned about the growing activity of Hezbollah, and U.S. relations with Iran are not good. Lebanon is the center of gravity of Hezbollah, and the destruction of Hezbollah capabilities in Lebanon, particularly the command structure, would cripple Hezbollah operations globally in the near future. The United States would very much like to see that happen, but cannot do it itself. Moreover, an Israeli action would enrage the Islamic world, but it would also drive home the limits of Iranian power. Once again, Iran would have dropped Lebanon in the grease, and not been hurt itself. The lesson of Hezbollah would not be lost on the Iraqi Shia -- or so the Bush administration would hope.

Therefore, this is one Israeli action that benefits the United States, and thus helps the immediate situation as well as long-term geopolitical alignments. It realigns the United States and Israel. This also argues that any invasion must be devastating to Hezbollah. It must go deep. It must occupy temporarily. It must shatter Hezbollah.

At this point, the Israelis appear to be unrolling a war plan in this direction. They have blockaded the Lebanese coast. Israeli aircraft are attacking what air power there is in Lebanon, and have attacked Hezbollah and other key command-and-control infrastructure. It would follow that the Israelis will now concentrate on destroying Hezbollah -- and Lebanese -- communications capabilities and attacking munitions dumps, vehicle sites, rocket-storage areas and so forth.

Most important, Israel is calling up its reserves. This is never a symbolic gesture in Israel. All Israelis below middle age are in the reserves and mobilization is costly in every sense of the word. If the Israelis were planning a routine reprisal, they would not be mobilizing. But they are, which means they are planning to do substantially more than retributive airstrikes. The question is what their plan is.

Given the blockade and what appears to be the shape of the airstrikes, it seems to us at the moment the Israelis are planning to go fairly deep into Lebanon. The logical first step is a move to the Litani River in southern Lebanon. But given the missile attacks on Haifa, they will go farther, not only to attack launcher sites, but to get rid of weapons caches. This means a move deep into the Bekaa Valley, the seat of Hezbollah power and the location of plants and facilities. Such a penetration would leave Israeli forces' left flank open, so a move into Bekaa would likely be accompanied by attacks to the west. It would bring the Israelis close to Beirut again.

This leaves Israel's right flank exposed, and that exposure is to Syria. The Israeli doctrine is that leaving Syrian airpower intact while operating in Lebanon is dangerous. Therefore, Israel must at least be considering using its air force to attack Syrian facilities, unless it gets ironclad assurances the Syrians will not intervene in any way. Conversations are going on between Egypt and Syria, and we suspect this is the subject. But Israel would not necessarily object to the opportunity of eliminating Syrian air power as part of its operation, or if Syria chooses, going even further.

At the same time, Israel does not intend to get bogged down in Lebanon again. It will want to go in, wreak havoc, withdraw. That means it will go deeper and faster, and be more devastating, than if it were planning a long-term occupation. It will go in to liquidate Hezbollah and then leave. True, this is no final solution, but for the Israelis, there are no final solutions.

Israeli forces are already in Lebanon. Its special forces are inside identifying targets for airstrikes. We expect numerous air attacks over the next 48 hours, as well as reports of firefights in southern Lebanon. We also expect more rocket attacks on Israel.

It will take several days to mount a full invasion of Lebanon. We would not expect major operations before the weekend at the earliest. If the rocket attacks are taking place, however, Israel might send several brigades to the Litani River almost immediately in order to move the rockets out of range of Haifa. Therefore, we would expect a rapid operation in the next 24-48 hours followed by a larger force later.

At this point, the only thing that can prevent this would be a major intervention by Syria with real guarantees that it would restrain Hezbollah and indications such operations are under way. Syria is the key to a peaceful resolution. Syria must calculate the relative risks, and we expect them to be unwilling to act decisively.

Therefore:

1. Israel cannot tolerate an insurgency on its northern frontier; if there is one, it wants it farther north.

2. It cannot tolerate attacks on Haifa.

3. It cannot endure a crisis of confidence in its military

4. Hezbollah cannot back off of its engagement with Israel.

5. Syria can stop this, but the cost to it stopping it is higher than the cost of letting it go on.

It would appear Israel will invade Lebanon. The global response will be noisy. There will be no substantial international action against Israel. Beirut's tourism and transportation industry, as well as its financial sectors, are very much at risk.



Shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act - http://www.cb-cda.gc.ca/info/act-e.html#rid-33409
 
I was living in Northern Israel in 96 when the Israeli army was responding to a Hezbollah rocket offensive with Op "Grapes of wrath". The Israelis take their security seriously, and their reserve support is extensive. They need it to be.

The problem is, they've done this before, in 1993 Israel was unable to disrupt Hezbollah operations with Op Accountability. We'll have to see how this phases out.

I'm only wondering how UNTSO's Observer Group Lebanon will be affected by this. We'll just have to see how this will be play out
 
Saar-5 corvette was hit by rockets but some reports say it was a UAV. Four crewmen are missing out of a 62 man crew.


saar1.jpg


http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1150885994586&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
 
According to BBC scroll announcement "LATEST: Israel confirms four soldiers are missing after Hezbollah attack on ship. More soon"
 
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/14/mideast/index.html

Hezbollah ready for 'war on every level'
Israeli warship hit, burning off coast of Lebanon

Friday, July 14, 2006; Posted: 10:01 p.m. EDT (02:01 GMT)



| What Is This? BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) -- Hezbollah is prepared for "open war" against Israel and its fighters will take aim at the warships that "attacked our civilians," the militant group's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, said in a speech broadcast on Hezbollah television.

Minutes later, a warship off the Lebanese coast was struck by what the Israel Defense Forces said was an unmanned aircraft packed with explosives, damaging the ship's steering capability. Hezbollah-run television station Al Manar reported that the boat was struck by two missiles.

The IDF reported there were no casualties. Hours later, the IDF said the ship was still on fire and was being towed back to Israel.

"You wanted an open war, you will have an open war," Nasrallah said. "You don't know who you are fighting today. You are fighting the children of Mohammed, ali Hassan and Hussein. You chose the war to fight against people who believe in their pride." (Watch Nasrallah say Hezbollah is ready for war -- 2:14)

"We are ready for it -- war, war on every level," he said.

It was unclear whether the speech, which was broadcast with audio only, was taped or live.

Since the kidnapping on Wednesday of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah guerrillas, which Israel says sparked the ongoing offensive, Israel has blocked ports, closed the main international airport by destroying its runways and struck strategic points around Lebanon.

Lebanese officials are urging the United Nations and the United States to intervene to halt the Israeli attacks. (Are the chances for diplomacy fizzling?)

Since Wednesday, 63 Lebanese, including two soldiers, have been killed and 167 others have been wounded, according to Lebanon's internal security forces. (Watch Lebanese try to cope with violence in Beirut -- 4:10)

The IDF reported that at least four Israeli civilians and eight Israeli soldiers have been killed, and more than 100 others have been wounded. (Watch an Israeli family deal with life in harm's way -- 2:02)

In his broadcast speech, Nasrallah also warned that if Israel took its offensive to Beirut that Hezbollah would exact retaliation on the northern Israeli port city of Haifa, about 30 miles from the Lebanese border.

"I will not tell you any more. If you hit the suburbs or Beirut, we will hit Haifa," he said. "We are going to an open war, to Haifa and beyond Haifa.

"We will not be the only ones who will lose their children and houses," he added.

Israel on Thursday struck numerous targets in Beirut, including the international airport, as rockets from Lebanon landed in Haifa. Hezbollah denied firing those rockets.

'Comprehensive plans'
Israel has struck targets including Hezbollah offices, weapons-storage facilities, airports, bridges and roads, including the main highway between Beirut and the Syrian capital of Damascus. (Watch how Israel targeted Hezbollah's headquarters -- 2:15

Israel has set up a naval blockade, preventing cruise ships from docking in Beirut and cutting off the fuel supply to Lebanese power plants.

Maj. Gen. Udi Adam, head of Israel's Northern Command, said Wednesday there were "comprehensive plans" to battle Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, and not just in the Islamic militia's southern stronghold. Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Daniel Ayalon said the current mission was designed to "de-fang the Hezbollah."

Nasrallah promised to "stand fast" in the face of Israeli attacks, which continued Friday.

In an unusual deal that the United States helped broker, a runway at the Beirut airport was repaired long enough to enable six planes -- one carrying former Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Nakati -- to take off. Israeli forces soon after bombed the runway again.

Israel later hit the Zahrani power plant south of Beirut, a parking lot near the Beirut airport, a tunnel to the airport, a fuel depot and two bridges, according to the Lebanese army. The IDF reported attacks on Hezbollah outposts in the south, a weapons-storage facility and three gas stations south of Sidon. (What is Hezbollah?)

The Lebanese port cities of Tripoli, Sidon and Tyre reported their ports were blocked by Israeli warships.

Nasrallah's home hit
Israel also attacked the neighborhood in southern Beirut where Nasrallah lives, and his apartment building was hit, according to Al Manar. Nasrallah's family was not hurt, the station reported. Also, explosions could be heard coming from the area housing Hezbollah headquarters and the studios of a Hezbollah radio station.

Lebanese defense officials reported that Israeli warplanes hit the headquarters for the Syrian-backed Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine in eastern Lebanon as well.

Israel also launched fresh attacks Friday on the Beirut-Damascus highway.

Friday's attacks came as the Israeli Cabinet approved a continued military operation aimed at recovering the kidnapped Ehud Goldvasser, 31, and Eldad Regev, 26.

In response to the Israeli attacks, Hezbollah fighters volleyed a new wave of rockets into at least six north Israeli towns -- Carmiel, Nahariya, Safed, Hatzor, Meron and Pqui'in. according to rescue services. (Watch how Israel and Hezbollah swapped blows -- 2:08)

A woman and her 5-year-old grandson were killed by a rocket in Meron, Israeli authorities said. Also, a barrage of Katyushas hit Kiryat Shmona, according to the IDF, and Israeli television showed pictures of a rocket hitting a home in Nasariya. The occupants were wounded, according to the report.

Israelis were warned to stay away from vulnerable areas, but the government did not order them into bomb shelters.

Hezbollah, which enjoys substantial backing from Syria and Iran, is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and Israel. The group holds 23 of the 128 seats in Lebanon's parliament.

The Islamic militia has said it wants to negotiate with Israel on a prisoner exchange, a demand Israel has rebuffed, saying it would encourage more kidnappings. A third Israeli soldier is also being held captive in Gaza, where Israel has refused demands for a prisoner swap with Hamas and other groups.

Israel has exchanged prisoners with Hezbollah before, most recently in 2004 when Israel handed over more than 400 Palestinian, Lebanese and Arab prisoners for an Israeli businessman and the bodies of three Israeli soldiers. (Timeline of Israel-Lebanon conflict)

Copyright 2006 CNN. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Associated Press contributed to this report
 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5182048.stm

Hezbollah leader vows 'open war' 
 
Both militant and civilian targets have been hit in Beirut


Reaction to attacks 
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has promised "open war" against Israel, in an address broadcast shortly after his Beirut offices were bombed by Israel.
The militant group said its leader was unhurt in the attack. It was not clear when his remarks were recorded.

Israel is demanding Hezbollah free two Israeli soldiers. More than 60 Lebanese have been killed in the offensive.

Meanwhile Israel says four soldiers are missing after a naval ship was damaged by a Hezbollah explosive drone.

It is thought to be the first time Hezbollah has used such a weapon.

The ship has now been towed back to Haifa and a search is continuing for the missing men.

Israel says a Hezbollah rocket aimed at one of its ships early on Saturday missed, and hit a civilian ship instead.

'War on every level'

In his address on Hezbollah's TV channel in Lebanon, Sheikh Nasrallah referred to an Israeli warship he said had launched attacks from of the coast of Lebanon, saying: "Look at the warship that has attacked Beirut, while it burns and sinks before your very eyes."

 




Israel later confirmed that one of its warships had been "lightly" damaged by rockets fired from the shore.

But later unnamed military officials were reported as saying that the ship's steering had been damaged, that its helicopter deck had been hit and that it was still on fire hours after the attack.

Sheikh Nasrallah threatened Israel, saying: "You wanted an open war and we are ready for an open war."

ISRAEL IN LEBANON
March 1978: Israel invades to stop Palestinian attacks
1982: Full-scale invasion; Israel occupies Beirut; pro-Israel militias massacre Palestinian refugees
May 1983: Israel pulls back, but keeps "security zone"
February 1992: Israeli air strike kills Hezbollah leader
1996: Israel launches "Grapes of Wrath" raids on Hezbollah; 100 civilians die under Israeli shelling of UN base at Qana
May 2000: Israel withdraws troops from Lebanon
January 2004: Prisoners-bodies swap agreed between Hezbollah and Israel


Early test of Olmert's mettle
Who are Hezbollah?
Online debate: Israeli and Lebanese 

The Hezbollah leader promised "war on every level". He said the Israeli coastal city of Haifa would come under attack, "and believe me, even beyond Haifa".

"Our homes will not be the only ones to be destroyed, our children will not be the only ones to die," he said.

Hezbollah has continued rocket attacks on northern Israel - 70 were fired on Friday alone.

A mother and daughter died in an attack on the town of Meron. Two Israelis died in attacks on Thursday.

Leaflet warnings

The crisis began when Hezbollah guerrillas seized two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid from Lebanon on Wednesday. Eight Israeli troops were also killed.

Israel responded with a major offensive - its biggest in more than two decades. The targets included not only Hezbollah positions but strategic sites like main roads, bridges and Beirut's international airport.


Residential areas near Hezbollah positions have been hit in air strikes, the group said.

Israel has warned residents by leaflet to stay away from Hezbollah locations.

Israel's chief of staff, Dan Halutz, said the two captured Israeli soldiers were still alive.

A third soldier, captured by Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip where Israel is conducting a separate operation, is also still alive, he said.

Calls for restraint

In an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, Lebanon called for an end to the Israeli operation.


The offensive was destroying infrastructure and causing the death of innocent civilians in full view of the international community, said Nouhad Mahmoud, Lebanon's ambassador to the UN.


Israeli views on the crisis with Lebanon


Israeli Ambassador Dan Gillerman said Israel had no choice but to react to Hezbollah's aggression, describing the group as "merely the finger on the bloodstained and long-reaching arms of Syria and Iran".

The escalation has sparked international calls for restraint.


French President Jacques Chirac said the Israeli air strikes were "completely disproportionate" and the Vatican described them as an attack on a sovereign and free nation.

Mr Olmert said he would agree to a ceasefire if Hezbollah returned the two captured soldiers and stopped firing rockets at northern Israel, and Lebanon implemented UN Security Council resolution 1559, calling for the disarmament of the militant group.

Hezbollah has said the captured soldiers will not be returned without a release deal for Palestinian, Lebanese and other Arab prisoners held in Israeli jails.

 
Sounds like another Arab-Israeli War brewing up... and you think the situation could get any worst than another Arab-Israeli War on top of the situation already present in the Middle East...

Also, nice ship. Looks quite stealthy and sleek.
 
Missle hits civilian vessel

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - A missile fired at an Israeli naval vessel off Lebanon hit a civilian boat, possibly from Egypt, the Israeli army said on Saturday.

A spokeswoman said those on board were believed to have been evacuated, adding it was unclear if there were any casualties.

After initially saying the missile had been fired at an Israeli vessel in a fresh strike early on Saturday, the spokeswoman later said it had been part of an attack late on Friday when an Israeli warship was badly damaged.

"At the same time as the incident took place in which an Israeli ship was hit, a merchant ship was also hit," the spokeswoman said.

Israeli media said the damaged missile ship was hit by an airborne drone packed with explosives.

Four Israeli troops were missing after the warship was hit in an attack claimed by Hizbollah, Al Jazeera television said, as violence escalated between Israel and the guerrilla group.



© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
 
Armymatters said:
Sounds like another Arab-Israeli War brewing up... and you think the situation could get any worst than another Arab-Israeli War on top of the situation already present in the Middle East...

Also, nice ship. Looks quite stealthy and sleek.

And very top heavy to boot....
 
Latest I heard from CNN the most Trusted Name In News was that it was a UAV packed with explosives.
 
Armymatters said:
Also, nice ship. Looks quite stealthy and sleek.

Obviously not nearly stealthy enough. Hezbollah are hardly on the cutting edge of military technology.
 
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