Ebola: outbreak, Canadian/other response (merged)

[The Bread Guy]

Ah, now that I've read Iranian media, NOW I get it ....

The Ebola outbreak is a hoax which is being perpetrated on the American people to justify imposing martial law in the United States, a political commentator in California says.

In an interview with Press TV on Sunday, Professor James Henry Fetzer said, “The situation with Ebola is very strange indeed, because there are multiple indications that it’s some kind of fraud or hoax or scam being perpetrated on the American people.”

“There’s a new Ebola false-flag exposed, compilations of evidence [are] available on YouTube now,” he added.

A nurse who just returned from Sierra Leone has condemned the US government for a 21-day mandatory quarantine despite testing negative for the Ebola virus.

Kaci Hickox said in an article on Saturday that she was “made to feel like criminal,” after she was placed in quarantine at a New Jersey hospital upon her return from West Africa.

On Friday, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced a new policy, which requires those who had contact with Ebola patients to go through mandatory isolation for three weeks ....

More on Fetzer here and here :Tin-Foil-Hat:

 

[cupper]

It doesn't help that the politicians are using it as an election issue in the final weeks of the midterms.

The GOP are playing the fear card, with some of the more extreme right making outright false statements.

The media is playing up every reported instance and treating it like the opening phase of a new war, or covering medical convoys carrying patients like they did with OJ in his Bronco.

Dems can't figure out how to counter the fear mongering.

Poll numbers show that this will be a major issue in the final run to Nov. 5th. ISIS / ISIL not so much. Ebola is here, Terrorists are over there.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

It will be cheaper to put people up for 21 days in a specially prepared facility and pay them than to try to track down people they were in contact with. If you go to such a place even to do good, you should realize that reducing the risk upon your return to your home, family and friends is an important part of it.

 

[CougarKing]

Speaking of the the general and some soldiers who might have been infected while serving with the contingent in West Africa:

Military.com

Army Isolates General and Soldiers Returning from West Africa

Oct 27, 2014 | by Richard Sisk
The two-star Army general and members of his staff who led the initial military efforts against Ebola in West Africa have been isolated on post as they returned to Italy, the Pentagon said Monday.

Maj. Gen. Darryl Williams, the commander of U.S. Army Africa, and 11 soldiers on his staff were taken to a building on the U.S. base at Vicenza, Italy, where they will be held in isolation for as long as 30 days on orders of the Department of the Army, the Pentagon said.

Army Col. Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman, did not use the word "quarantine" to describe the status of Williams and his troops, but said they were undergoing "enhanced monitoring" and were not allowed to leave the building or have contact with family members.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[ModlrMike]

Personally, I think the nurse who kicked up crap about quarantine should be slapped. She should understand the risk, and appreciate that some inconvenience on her part may be the thing that keeps other safe. If I were in her shoes I would have expected to go into quarantine.

 

[a_majoor]

Modeling of the crisis is not providing any comforting answers. Of course the disjointed and frankly confusing responses to the crisis are not helping at all:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26448-future-scenarios-show-how-easily-ebola-could-explode.html?cmpid=RSS|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|online-news#.VFGHlr5BBIB

Future scenarios show how easily Ebola could explode

15:24 24 October 2014 by Debora MacKenzie
For similar stories, visit the Epidemics and Pandemics Topic Guide
Just how bad will the Ebola outbreak in West Africa get? There have been predictions: 20,000 cases by November; more than a million by January. But these are milestones. No one has said how many cases there might be in total by the time the epidemic peaks and tails off, once everyone in reach has been exposed to the virus.

That is because mathematical models of epidemics are notoriously bad at accounting for the uncertainties in such predictions, such as how people's behaviour changes as an epidemic progresses. But a new model by David Fisman and Ashleigh Tuite of the University of Toronto in Canada – the first to take account of efforts to fight infections – suggests that if things continue as they have been up until now, 700,000 people could have had the virus by the time the epidemic in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone subsides – in early 2016.

Fisman's prediction is based on reported cases of Ebola. (The previous prediction of more than a million cases by this coming January had assumed that the actual number of cases is 2.5 times the reported cases, so the same multiplier could be applied to Fisman's figure.) Importantly, he can track whether efforts to limit contagion grow in proportion with the epidemic. So far, the data from West Africa suggest that this is in fact happening. But if anything happens to slow that fight, his model suggests that total cases could balloon to many millions.

Climbing exponentially

Other epidemiologists are putting numbers on what many have been saying for months now – that in many ways, the response to the epidemic is too little, too late. But while that may be true, Fisman's model suggests that efforts so far are nevertheless making a big difference.

On 23 October the World Health Organization declared that the epidemic is still growing exponentially. It is worst in Monrovia, the capital of Liberia. Alison Galvani and her colleagues at Yale University used standard epidemiological models to calculate the impact there of various additional measures to slow the epidemic.

They calculated that, from a start date of 15 October, if more infected people had been found, and treatment centres had been built in which to isolate them, 50,000 to 120,000 of the 170,000 new Ebola cases expected in Monrovia by mid-December could have been averted. That's around the time the epidemic hits the steep rise of the exponential curve. But as the total number of cases climbs, the ability of each measure to avert cases became smaller: applying the same measures starting 31 October or 15 November averted far fewer cases.

Galvani's model's closest approximation of the WHO's current target – isolating 70 per cent of infected people by 1 December – averts 60,000 cases, she says, but only if dozens more treatment centres are built in Monrovia soon. Otherwise, the cases averted plummet to just 5000. The US military's 17 new treatment units, to cover all of Liberia won't open for "a few weeks".

Everything helps

But Fisman's work shows that even the measures taken so far have been worthwhile. In a commentary with Galvani's report, he says it has been hard to predict how big epidemics will get, because they often decelerate faster than their initial growth suggests.

Fisman observes how epidemics slow during the first six or so "generations" of spread from person to person, and calculated a new "discounting" term to account for this in models. For this term to stay constant, efforts that slow spread must increase in proportion to the epidemic. In West Africa, they have. "We keep rechecking [the new term] every 15 days, and it's been rock solid." Each case now spreads Ebola to fewer people than at the start of the epidemic. It's just not slowing fast enough, he says.

Meanwhile, the predictions of Fisman's model are so far closely tracking the fast-growing Ebola epidemic – at least in terms of cases reported. "Empirically this just works, and freakishly well for forecasting," says Fisman.

Moreover, he modelled what would happen if efforts to control the disease faltered, which could happen as a result of civil disturbance as cases mount. Such faltering would mean the discounting term shrinks. A 40 per cent reduction in the term made predicted Ebola cases balloon from 700,000 to 12 million. Because this is a derived term, it's hard to know how it translates to what's happening on the ground. But one thing is clear – small changes in how we respond have big effects, says Fisman.

More optimistically, if currently experimental drugs and vaccines work against Ebola, significant quantities should become available in 2015, when the model says the epidemic will peak. This could lead to a much faster decline in cases than currently predicted.

Representatives of the GlaxoSmithKline, meeting with WHO officials in Geneva this week, say that by December 2015 they should be able to make a million doses of vaccine a month.

Journal reference: Galvani et al,The Lancet: Infectious Disease, DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70995-8. Comment piece by David Fisman and Ashleigh Tuite, DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70851-5

 

[CougarKing]

Let's hope none of these returning troops who pass through these bases are actually infected...

Military.com

Military Names 5 US Bases for Ebola Mission Troops

Associated Press | Nov 07, 2014 | by Lolita C. Baldor
WASHINGTON — The top U.S. military officer has designated five U.S. bases where American troops would be housed and isolated for 21 days upon returning from Africa after serving in the Ebola response mission, U.S. officials said Friday.

Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, signed a plan that lists Fort Hood and Fort Bliss, Texas; Fort Bragg, North Carolina; Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington; and Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Virginia, as bases where troops would be quarantined. The U.S. also hopes to use two bases in Italy and Germany for returning troops based in that region.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[mariomike]

Closer to home.

"On Monday, October 27, eight Toronto Paramedics tabled what is known as a “work refusal.” Their concerns were all related to training and equipment to be used in the treatment of patients who might be suspected of having Ebola."
http://m.citynews.ca/2014/10/29/toronto-paramedics-walk-off-job-over-lagging-ebola-preparedness/

 

[medicineman]

Interesting...maybe after all that time asking to go there with OP REPTILE, I'll get tapped.  Oh right, I'm not Reg Force anymore...

 

[The Bread Guy]

Interesting...maybe after all that time asking to go there with OP REPTILE, I'll get tapped.  Oh right, I'm not Reg Force anymore ....

Oh well, there's always the next round of pestilence to look forward to, right?  ;D

Meanwhile, more on the Op name - apparently based on a Celtic goddess of healing (and hot springs).

 

[a_majoor]

More on how this is getting out of control. A mere handful of patients has created the need for contact tracing and monitoring of over a thousand Americans. This has been kept out of the news until now (as Glen Reynolds, the Instapundit suggests cynically, the "Ebola Czar" is doing his real job here)

http://sharylattkisson.com/cdc-more-than-1400-people-in-u-s-being-actively-monitored-for-ebola

CDC: More Than 1,400 People in U.S. Being Actively Monitored for Ebola

The killer virus Ebola may not be front and center in the news, but it’s still in the forefront of efforts by health officials nationwide. As of today, more than 1,400 people in 44 states in the U.S. are being actively monitored by state and local health departments after returning from West Africa. The good news is that no new cases have been reported in the U.S. since Oct. 23.

According to the Centers for Disease Control, which provided the figure,

“They are being monitored because they came from one of the four countries with ongoing Ebola outbreaks.”

Responding to a public outcry, the Department of Homeland Security began, on Oct. 22, requiring all U.S. bound passengers from the primary Ebola-infected West African nations to arrive at one of five U.S. airports with enhanced screening.

To date, ten people have been treated for Ebola in the U.S. since late September.

More than 1,400 people in 44 states in the U.S. are being actively monitored for Ebola–CDC
Patients with Ebola Brought to U.S.

A total of six people have been brought to the U.S. after contracting Ebola in West Africa: five healthcare workers and one photojournalist. The photojournalist is 33-year old Ashoka Mukpo. All but one survived. Dr. Martin Salia, a legal permanent resident of the U.S., was already critically ill when he arrived from Sierra Leone for treatment at Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha. He died just a few days later on Nov. 17. Officials say they don’t know exactly how he contracted the virus.

Ebola Cases Diagnosed in the U.S.

A total of four people have been diagnosed with Ebola in the U.S. since Sept. 30. All of them recovered except one.

September 30, 2014 – CDC confirmed the first laboratory-confirmed case of Ebola to be diagnosed in the United States in Thomas Eric Duncan who had traveled to Dallas, Texas from Liberia. Local public health officials identified all of Duncan’s close contacts for daily monitoring for 21 days after exposure. Duncan died on Oct. 8. By Nov. 7, all of his close contacts had completed the 21-day monitoring period.

October 10, 2014 – Nina Pham, a 26-year old nurse who cared for Duncan at Texas Presbyterian Hospital tested positive for Ebola and was taken to the National Institutes for Health (NIH) Clinical Center. She recovered and was discharged on Oct. 24.

October 15, 2014 – Amber Vinson, a 29-year old nurse, became the second of Duncan’s health care workers to test positive for Ebola and was taken to Emory Hospital in Atlanta, Georgia. She had flown from Dallas to Cleveland on Oct. 10, and from Cleveland to Dallas on Oct. 13. CDC officials say they “worked to ensure that all passengers and crew on the two flights were contacted by public health professionals to answer their questions and arrange follow up as necessary.” The patient recovered and was discharged Oct. 28 and all monitored passengers completed monitoring by Nov. 3.

October 23, 2014 – The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene reported Ebola in Dr. Craig Spencer, a medical aid worker who had returned to New York City from Guinea, where he served with Doctors Without Borders. He recovered and was discharged from Bellevue Hospital Center Nov. 11. No cases developed from outings he’d made in New York prior to being admitted to the hospital with a fever.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Interesting...maybe after all that time asking to go there with OP REPTILE, I'll get tapped.  Oh right, I'm not Reg Force anymore...

the feds are asking for volunteers

 

[medicineman]

Watch and shoot...my CoC is aware 

MM

 

[a_majoor]

And the news keeps getting worse. The amount of resources needed to keep this in check is going to be mush larger than any nation or even group of nations has available (and what are you going to do when the health workers refuse to go to work for fear of being infected?)

http://www.capitalotc.com/the-ebola-outbreak-keeps-spreading-like-wildfire-in-west-africa/26739/

The Ebola Outbreak Keeps Spreading Like Wildfire In West Africa
By Alex Hull / December 21, 2014 at 14:33

The Ebola outbreak keeps spreading like wildfire in West Africa, the total number of deaths reaching 7,000, according to the World Health Organization. This new peak was disclosed by the organization on Saturday, while United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon was carrying out his visit through the nations affected by Ebola in the area.

Most of the recent deaths were registered in Sierra Leone.  According to WHO data, the three states that have been hit the hardest by the outbreak already registered 7,373 casualties since Wednesday when their number was 6,900.  Sierra Leone, where Ebola seems to have the quickest spreading rate, counted a total of 392 of the new deaths in the last few days.

According to the WHO, one death in United States, eight in Nigeria and six deaths in Mali were also recorded. The grand total of Ebola infections in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia now settled at 19,031, up from 18,569.

Medical staff and volunteers were carrying thermometers and sanitizers at staffed surveying stations all over Liberia on Saturday, as citizens cast their votes in a twice-deferred Senate election.  The organization of elections in this period in Liberia has been harshly criticized due to the health risks it might involve, as it could further spread the dangerous Ebola virus.

Enlisted voters were expected to cast their votes for the 139 candidates joining the Senate race all through the nation.  According to Jerome Korkoya, executive of the National Elections Commission, the turnout was rather low. The illness seems to have decelerated lately in Liberia, but critics still contended that it was unclear whether the elections could be carried out securely.

The UN Secretary arrived in Guinea on Saturday after visiting Liberia and Sierra Leone a day before.  The first Ebola cases were confirmed in Guinea this March.  Ban Ki-moon expressed his concerns about the circumstances in the nation’s southeast woodland area, where, according to him, the number of contaminated individuals appears to keep growing. The given area is at the border with Liberia, Sierra Leone and the Ivory Coast.  For that reason, Ban advised the three countries try and come up with a cross- border cooperation framework, to contain the outbreak.

He ensured authorities of the UN’s and the organization’s partners support for fighting Ebola in the region but also insisted that all Guineans should strive to stop Ebola from spreading.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Government happy to have government workers head over to help with Ebola - on their own time, of course.

The federal government isn’t taking its share of responsibility for the injury or death of public servants who answer its recruitment call for volunteers to help fight the deadly Ebola virus in West Africa, the federal unions say.

The unions representing the health-care workers and other bureaucrats who might volunteer say the government shirked its responsibilities as employer by shifting the health and safety of its employees to the Canadian Red Cross.

“You would think they want to provide the maximum protection to their employees” rather than putting the onus on the Red Cross, said Ron Cochrane, co-chair of the joint-union management National Joint Council. “They don’t want the risk and it’s like they are taking the cheap way.”

The Red Cross wants to recruit 90 doctors, nurses and other medical specialists, deploying 10 to 15 volunteers a month. So far, 150 interested Canadians have applied, more than 30 of them public servants.

The Conservative government bills itself as a leader in the battle against Ebola. Treasury Board originally asked the 17 public service unions to partner with the government and Red Cross for the launch of a campaign to recruit medical specialists for the affected areas.

The unions were keen – until they learned the public servants who volunteer will be going to West Africa on “leave with pay.” That raised concerns the volunteers wouldn’t get the extra benefits and insurance coverage the government normally pays when active-duty employees are sent to dangerous or conflict zones ....

I wonder if anyone's bonus is affected if nobody from the public service decides to go with the Red Cross?

 

[CougarKing]

The US scaling down its anti-ebola efforts...

Military.com

US Withdrawing Most Troops Fighting Ebola in West Africa

Associated Press | Feb 11, 2015 | by Josh Lederman
WASHINGTON -- The United States is preparing to withdraw nearly all of its troops fighting the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, the White House said Tuesday, as the global health crisis recedes amid a sharp decline in Ebola cases.

Of the 2,800 troops the U.S. deployed, just 100 will remain in West Africa after April 30, officials said. About 1,500 of those troops have already returned home. Those staying in West Africa will work with Liberia's military, regional partners and U.S. civilians to continue fighting Ebola.

"Just 10 months since the first U.S. government personnel deployed, we have delivered extraordinary results," said U.S. Agency for International Development Administrator Rajiv Shah, adding that Ebola cases were down 80 percent and that in hard-hit Liberia, new cases have dwindled to just one or two per day.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[mariomike]

8 June 2016

Woman With Possible Ebola = 33 LAFD Firefighters and Paramedics, Haz Mat Team, LAPD Police Officers & helicopters.
http://www.smobserved.com/story/2016/06/08/news/hazmat-team-and-33-firemen-respond-to-woman-with-ebola-in-hollywood/1380.html

 

[mariomike]

On Monday, November 14, 2016, an exercise simulating the notification, management of, and transport of, a patient under investigation for Ebola virus.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BMzqOKcjXOH/

SARS "working quarantine" in 2003 flashback.