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Ebola: outbreak, Canadian/other response (merged)

RedcapCrusader said:
Ever looked at the symptoms of Ebola? Basically the same symptoms of influenza. Everyone is just paranoid and hypervigiliant that anything g remotely "ebola-like" gets media attention.

The reason why Liberia and Sierra Leone are struggling to containsit is because their quality of care and health care benchmarks are poor.

More than that but the population thinks it's a conspiracy and don't even believe it's Ebola. Violence against clean up teams, body removal parties, ransacking some medical stations etc.  as well fear of stigma leading people to stay home rather than seek treatment.  A combination of a weak health system and ignorance.
 
We might think that as a "First World" nation, we are relatively safe. Mark Steyn reported on how our health care system essentially collapsed from SARS, and I doubt things have changed in any substantive way. The only thing that may "save" us is the relatively low rate of transmission (compared to something like flu, for example).

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/900134/posts?page=51

Mark Steyn: The system infected us
National Post ^ | April 24 2003 | Mark Steyn
Posted on April 25, 2003 at 9:47:59 AM EDT by knighthawk

One of the most tediously over-venerated bits of British political wisdom is Prime Minister Harold MacMillan's amused Edwardian response as to what he feared most in the months ahead: "Events, dear boy, events."

But even events come, so to speak, politically predetermined. If, for example, you have powerful public sector unions, you will be at the mercy of potentially crippling strikes. The quasi-Eastern European Britain of the 1970s was brought to a halt by a miners' strike in a way that would have been impossible in the United States.

So it is with SARS. The appearance of the virus itself was a surprise but everything since has been, to some extent, predictable. Because totalitarian regimes lie, China denied there was any problem for three months, and thereafter downplayed the extent of it. Because UN agencies are unduly deferential to dictatorships, the World Health Organization accepted Beijing's lies. This enabled SARS to wiggle free of China's borders before anyone knew about it. I mentioned all this three weeks ago, but only in the last couple of days has the People's Republic decided to come clean -- or, at any rate, marginally less unclean -- about what's going on.

As for our diseased Dominion, like the Chinese our leaders behaved true to form. When something bad happens in Canada, the priority is to demonstrate how nice we are. After September 11th, the Prime Minister visited a mosque. After SARS hit, the Prime Minister visited a Chinese restaurant. Insofar as one can tell, Chinese Canadians seem to be avoiding Chinese restaurants at a somewhat higher rate than caucasians. But, while it may have been blindsided by the actual outbreak of disease, the Canadian system is superb at dealing with entirely mythical outbreaks of racism. I think we can take it as read that if a truck of goulash exploded on the 401 killing 120, the Prime Minister would be Hungarian folk dancing within 48 hours. Personally, I'd have been more impressed if he and Aline had had a candlelit dinner for two over a gurney in the emergency room of a Toronto hospital. That's the issue -- not Canadian restaurants, but Canadian health care.

But the piped CanCon mood music has wafted over Jean and Aline's table and drowned out the more awkward questions. Toronto is the only SARS "hot zone" outside Asia. Of nearly 200 nations on the face of this Earth, Canada is one of only eight where SARS has killed, and currently ranks third, after China and Singapore, in the number of SARS deaths. Indeed, Canada had the highest SARS fatality rate in the world until one of two infected Filipinos died a few days ago -- and according to its government she picked it up from the mother of her Toronto roommate.

But why get hung up on details? "Over the past six weeks, health care workers across Toronto have done an amazing job," wrote Joseph Mapa, president of Mount Sinai Hospital, on our letters page yesterday. "We need to applaud these men and women for their dedication and commitment."

No, we don't. We can indulge in lame-o maple boosterism if we ever lick this thing. Until then, we need to ask: Why Toronto? London, Sydney, San Francisco and other Western cities have large, mobile Asian populations. But they don't have SARS. The excuse being made for China is that they have vast rural provinces with limited access to health care. So what's Toronto's?

Here's the timeline:

February 11th: The WHO issued its first SARS health alert, which was picked up by the American ProMed network, which distributed it to Toronto health authorities. The original alert has been described as "obviously significant" by those who saw it.

February 28th: Kwan Sui-Chu, having recently returned from Hong Kong, goes to her doctor in Scarborough complaining of fever, coughing, muscle tenderness, all the symptoms of the by now several ProMed alerts. As is traditional in Canada, the patient is prescribed an antibiotic and sent home.

March 5th: Having apparently never returned for further medical treatment and slipped into a coma at home, Kwan Sui-Chu is found dead in her bed. The coroner, Dr. Mark Shaffer, lists cause of death as "heart attack." Later that day, Kwan's son, Tse Chi Kwai, visits the doctor, complaining of fever, coughing, etc. He too is prescribed an antibiotic and sent home. Later still, the son takes his wife to the doctor. Likewise.

March 7th: Tse Chi Kwai goes to Scarborough Grace, and is left on a gurney in Emergency for 12 hours exposed to hundreds of people.

March 9th: Scarborough Grace discovers Tse's mother has recently died after returning from Hong Kong. But Dr. Sandy Finkelstein concludes, if Tse is infectious, it's TB.

March 13th: Tse dies, and Scarborough Grace calls Dr. Allison McGeer, Mount Sinai's infectious disease specialist, who finally makes the SARS connection.

March 16th: Joe Pollack, who lay next to Tse on that Scarborough Grace ER gurney for hour after hour, returns to the hospital with SARS. He's isolated, but not his wife. Later that day, while at the hospital, Mrs. Pollack comes in contact with another patient who's a member of a Catholic Charismatic group.

March 28th: At a meeting of the Charismatic group, the ailing Scarborough patient's unknowingly infected son exposed 500 others to SARS ...

Let's leave it there. If this is what the President of Mount Sinai calls an "amazing job," then we might as well head for the hills screaming "We're all gonna die!" Toronto health authorities have done an amazing job that's amazing only in its comprehensive lousiness. At every link in the chain, anything that could go wrong did go wrong.

In rural China, SARS got its start through the population's close contact with farm animals. In Hong Kong, it was spread by casual contact in the lobby, elevators and other public areas of the Metropole Hotel. Only in Canada does the virus owe its grip on the population to the active co-operation of the medical profession. In Toronto, the system that's supposed to protect us from infection instead infected us. They breached the most basic medical principle: first do no harm. Even after they knew it was SARS, Scarborough Grace kept making things worse.

Dr. Mapa's pathetic attempts at covering his profession's ass are understandable. But most people who've had experience of Canadian health care will recognize the SARS chain as an extreme version of what usually happens. The other day, a guy I know went to a Quebec emergency room, waited for six hours, was told he had a migraine, and sent home. It turned out to be a life-threatening parasite in the brain. I'm sure you've got friends and family with similar stories. A chronically harassed, understaffed, underequipped system reaches reflexively for routine diagnoses, prescriptions. Did Kwan Sui-Chu's doctor, an Asian Canadian herself with many Asian patients, get the Toronto Public Health alert? Is it normal for coroners to mark "heart attack" as cause of death for elderly patients even when they've been prescribed antibiotics for a new condition in the last week? Why, after Scarborough admitted Mr. Pollack, whom they knew to have been infected during his previous stay with them, did they allow Mrs. Pollack to circulate among other patients? Why did Scarborough compound its own carelessness by infecting York Central?

Most of what went wrong could have been discovered by a few social pleasantries: How's the family? Been travelling recently? The so-called "bedside manner" isn't just to cheer you up, it's meant to provide the doctor with information that will assist his diagnosis. In Canadian health care, coiled tight as a spring, there's no room for chit-chat: give her the antibiotics, put it down as a heart attack, stick him on a gurney in the corridor for a couple of days. Maybe you could get service as bad as this in, oh, a Congolese hospital. But in most other Western health care systems the things Ontario failed to do would be taken for granted. There might be a lapse at some point in the chain but not a 100% systemic failure all the way down the line.

You'll notice that just like Red China, the Prime Minister and Toronto's medical staff I've reacted reflexively, blaming it in my right-wing way on the decrepitude of socialized health care, which almost by definition is reactive rather than anticipatory, and belatedly so at that. But my analysis, unlike Dr. Mapa's, fits the facts. But not to worry: as our leader is happy to assure us, our no-tier health care "express da Canadian value."
 
George Wallace said:
Now we have two cases in Ontario, one in Ottawa and another in Belleville, of people who have developed symptoms. 
The Ottawa patient tested negative, but a Canadian Forces member in Belleville is still in isolation.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/ottawa-patient-tests-negative-for-ebola-dnd-member-still-in-isolation-1.2051532
 
I seriously don't understand why Canada and the US have not implemented a travel ban for anyone who has been to those countries.
 
Hatchet Man said:
I seriously don't understand why Canada and the US have not implemented a travel ban for anyone who has been to those countries.

I agree. I know if you are military you can't go. One of our members had a trip scheduled and was told no.
 
Chief Stoker said:
I agree. I know if you are military you can't go. One of our members had a trip scheduled and was told no.

As in a personal trip?  Do they have family there?  Otherwise, I can't imagine being crazy/stupid/altruistic/suicidal enough to go there....  ???
 
PMedMoe said:
As in a personal trip?  Do they have family there?  Otherwise, I can't imagine being crazy/stupid/altruistic/suicidal enough to go there....  ???

They had a trip planned to go to Mount Kilimanjaro for some time. They thought it would ok since there had been no cases in that part of Africa. Military said no.
 
I'm with The Economist on this one: the risk to the modern, rich, sophisticated West, with its excellent public health systems, is low. Our current response is media (and political) induced panic.

Banning flights is a terminally f'ing stupid idea ... unless you want to do a repeat of 9/11 on a long, long term basis: and that's equally f'ing dumb.

There IS an ebola crisis and we can and should, in our own self interest, do something to solve it ... that may involve sending CF personnel to Africa, not hiding, in fear, behind stupid half measures.

Fear, irrational media induced fear, is our enemy, not ebola.
 
This interactive link from the Wall Street Journal shows the spread of Ebola (and interestingly enough, none of the cases reported in Canada exist).

http://graphics.wsj.com/maps/ebolas-deadly-reach?mod=e2fb
 
In world economics, prepare to see your sweet tooth cost you more:


Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Ebola threatens chocolate

Politico Pro
By BILL TOMSON | 10/12/14 7:05 AM EDT Updated: 10/13/14 10:10 AM EDT

Ebola is threatening much of the world’s chocolate supply.

Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer of cacao, the raw ingredient in M&M’s, Butterfingers and Snickers Bars, has shut down its borders with Liberia and Guinea, putting a major crimp on the workforce needed to pick the beans that end up in chocolate bars and other treats just as the harvest season begins. The West African nation of about 20 million — also known as Côte D’Ivoire — has yet to experience a single case of Ebola, but the outbreak already could raise prices.

The world’s chocolate makers have taken notice.

The World Cocoa Foundation is working now to collect large donations from Nestlé, Mars and many of its 113 other members for its Coca Industry Response to Ebola Initiative. The initiative hasn’t been publicly unveiled, but the WCF plans to announce details Wednesday, during its annual meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark, on how the money will fuel Red Cross and Caritas Internationalis work to help the infected and staunch Ebola’s spread.

Morristown, N.J.-based Transmar Group, an international cocoa supplier, already has pledged $100,000, and Mars has indicated its support, too.

“As a member of the WCF and a supporter of the CocoaAction strategy, Mars is pleased to see the industry coming together to help organizations on the ground in the prevention and eradication of the Ebola virus,” the company said in a statement provided to POLITICO. “We look forward to the WCF partnership meeting in Copenhagen next week where we will learn more about the industry effort.”

Ivory Coast, which produces about 1.6 million metric tons of cacao beans per year — roughly 33 percent of the world’s total, according to data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization — closed its borders in August to Guinea and Liberia. More than 8,000 have been diagnosed with Ebola, and nearly 4,000 have died in those two countries and Sierra Leone. Next to Ivory Coast is Ghana, the world’s third-largest producer of cacao beans — 879,348 metric tons per year — or 15 percent of the world’s total.

Tim McCoy, a senior adviser for the WCF, said signs that Ivory Coast residents already are concerned were immediately obvious during his last trip to the country in September.

“Going into meetings where … you always shake hands and often times, with men and women, you do the cheek kiss thing … They weren’t doing that,” McCoy said.

The market is worried, too. Prices on cocoa futures jumped from their normal trading range of $2,000 to $2,700 per ton, to as high as $3,400 in September over concerns about the spread of Ebola to Côte D’Ivoire, noted Jack Scoville, an analyst and vice president at the Chicago-based Price Futures Group. Since then, prices have yo-yoed down to $3,030 and then back to $3,155 in the past couple of weeks.


More on LINK.
 
RedcapCrusader said:
Ever looked at the symptoms of Ebola? Basically the same symptoms of influenza. Everyone is just paranoid and hypervigiliant that anything remotely "ebola-like" gets media attention.
According to the WHO and others, it sounds pretty hard to catch Ebola unless you're in very close contact w/someone who's pretty sick already:
.... Infection occurs from direct contact through broken skin or mucous membranes with the blood, or other bodily fluids or secretions (stool, urine, saliva, semen) of infected people. Infection can also occur if broken skin or mucous membranes of a healthy person come into contact with environments that have become contaminated with an Ebola patient’s infectious fluids such as soiled clothing, bed linen, or used needles ....
The CDC's take:
.... Ebola is not spread through casual contact; therefore, the risk of an outbreak in the U.S. is very low. We know how to stop Ebola’s further spread: thorough case finding, isolation of ill people, contacting people exposed to the ill person, and further isolation of contacts if they develop symptoms ....
Finally, Health Canada....
Ebola can be spread through:
- contact with infected animals (bats, monkeys, gorillas, pigs, etc.)
- contact with blood, body fluids or tissues of infected persons
- contact with medical equipment, such as needles, contaminated with infected body fluids
All that said, have to agree with you and E.R.C. on this bit:
E.R. Campbell said:
Our current response is media (and political) induced panic.
No pun intended, but if it bleeds, it leads ....
 
That's right George it is chocolate, not Canada, that is threatened.

The panic would be funny if it wasn't infecting so many otherwise apparently (moderately) intelligent people. Between CNN which needs these sorts of false crises to keep the advertising dollars flowing and the absolutely collossaly stupid and irresponsible wing of the US Republican Party, which wants to use anything to bash the black man in the White House, the serious, but local (to Africa) problem has been blown into a global crisis.

Now, don't get me wrong: this is a crisis ... in Africa. We have both a moral duty and a socio-economic/political interest in helping to stem and solve the crisis. We may need to deploy troops - engineers, mainly, and civilian public health workers and contractors to help address the crisis. There are useful things we can do ... stopping air travel isn't one of them.
 
I am going to disagree, Ebola in it's current form is really nasty bug to fight and our healthcare system while not bad is not designed to deal with pandemics. Remember http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic ? Ebola ha infected more people in the last few months than in it's entire known history, the virus will mutate into what we don't know.
The cost of maintaining control of even a few patients and the healthcare staff is staggering. I suspect the disease will establish in the US and get into the homeless population through ER contact and become incredibly difficult to stamp out. It is the incubation period that is the disease's strongest point and exploits our weaknesses. People will get infected without knowing, move a significant distance and then infect others, so you will have hotspots popping up everywhere.

In theory Canada is at minimal risk as long as the disease does not take hold in the US, then all bets are off. The main defense at the healthcare end is to re-direct anyone with possible symptoms away from ER rooms to specialized ER's. I would prepare specialized ATCO type trailers, with a easy to clean UV equipped receiving room, with filtered air exhaust. The staff portion is sealed from the receiving room and staff can triage incoming patients with no direct contact reducing risks of infection and transmission throughout the hospital (and significant costs). From the Triage room, suspected patients are taken by a stripped down ambulance (again sealed from driver) to a designated hospital with a sectioned off area setup to treat and isolate potential carriers. Currently ER's see significant amounts of transient , drug users and homeless people, you really want to prevent the virus from getting into that crowd or it will be all over the city in a flash.   
 
Sorry Colin but you are comparing apples and oranges.  Ebola is not airborne like the flu or SARS.  Our hospitals are actually well placed in dealing with an ebola patient.  basically if you have an isolation ward, you can contain it.  Most of our hospitals actually do have isolation wards.  If Ebola was actually airborne it would be a whole diffrent ball game but as it is, it is much harder to contract.  The reason it is spreading so fast in Africa is lack of education, mistrust and very poor health care facilities.  Not to mention cultural norms in regards to dealing with bodies during funeral rites etc etc.  You can barely teach some people how to use a condom let alone explain to them how to deal with Ebola.
 
We will lose the battle in the ER waiting rooms, not the isolation rooms. The disease in the early stages mimics the flu making false positives a much more likely event and lower attentiveness. The disease can linger on hard surfaces in a cool environment for up to 72hrs. Take note that a nurse in isolation gear was infected, likely from improper undressing. one infected person spending a couple of hours in a waiting room can infect a whole host of people with no one the wiser for days or even a week.   
 
Colin P said:
We will lose the battle in the ER waiting rooms, not the isolation rooms. The disease in the early stages mimics the flu making false positives a much more likely event and lower attentiveness. The disease can linger on hard surfaces in a cool environment for up to 72hrs. Take note that a nurse in isolation gear was infected, likely from improper undressing. one infected person spending a couple of hours in a waiting room can infect a whole host of people with no one the wiser for days or even a week. 

I would agree with you if this was Africa.  But it isn't.  Yes it can linger in blood and other secretions on surfaces for that time period.  Contracting it through casual contact is extremely rare.  Because of its secondary infection rates it is much easier to contain.  The flu has something like 17 for secondary infection rates compared to Ebola which is 1.3-1.8 and with it's 2 week incubation period containing it is much easier.    the closest thing that I can think of as far as transmission is concerned would be Rabies.  There are only one or two cases a year in the US resulting in death but 55 000 anually in asia and africa.  Mind you it isn't hemoragic fever but it spread through infected saliva, blood etc and can be misdiagnosed as something else.

one infected person could infect anyone if they bleed, puke or sneeze and that other person got it in open wounds, mouth eyes or mucus membranes.  When someone bleeds or vomist in an ER they don't just leave it there to be touched by anyone.  again, it isn't airborne like the flu where yes, an ER can become full of infected people.
 
We also have to consider that in the US and Canada, contact tracing is much more developped than in Africa where, i think it is damned near impossible to conduct effectively.
 
Yesterday I heard some discussion on the formation of a multinational rapid reaction force specifically tailored to contain and eliminate viral outbreaks. Perhaps if we had something in place the crisis in Africa wouldn't of gotten so far.
 
I think one of our docs put it rather succinctly last night at work when someone was going on about being worried about Ebola - "I'd be more worried about the kid here with Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease than the one with Ebola, since it (HFMD) is about 300 times more infectious".

:2c:

MM

 
In the 'Security Concerns Department'; there are some who would like to call for extreme measures and block all transit into and out of infected areas.  That is a rather simple thought, but would only cause migrants, healthy or sick, to use "underground" routes to 'escape' the blockades.  These clandestine travelers would pose more of a risk than those travelling through terminals that are monitoring the infection.

World wide pandemics have happened in the past decade or so.  We have witnessed the fears over the 'Bird Flu' and been able to contain it.  We also have seen more virulent infectious diseases, including the common flu cause deaths in our country that greatly outnumber those potential deaths this threat may pose.

I have heard that the Canadian Government has already developed a vaccine that they are going to test on forty volunteers in the US.

Canada's Ebola vaccine: How does it work?
 
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