CPC Leadership Discussion 2020-21

[brihard]

Ambrose has just formally announced that she will not run. This sucks, probably the closest we’ll ever come to being able to say someone turned down being PM.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/rona-ambrose-conservative-leader-decision-1.5436775?fbclid=IwAR1jxw8ci1lTe9hQQnSgJpjRw0K0opjLp9EVYboZm2fFJbTWEvPRkVEMDKE

 

[Remius]

If Harper endorses anyone, it would be a fitting gesture to endorse Mackay.

The fact that Jenny Byrne is going to run Polievre’s campaign should tell you who he is quietly endorsing.

 

[Remius]

Ambrose has just formally announced that she will not run. This sucks, probably the closest we’ll ever come to being able to say someone turned down being PM.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/rona-ambrose-conservative-leader-decision-1.5436775?fbclid=IwAR1jxw8ci1lTe9hQQnSgJpjRw0K0opjLp9EVYboZm2fFJbTWEvPRkVEMDKE

Not surprised.  I remain convinced that some declared candidates had inside knowledge she was not going to run.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Interesting to see how this turns out; I think the social conservatives lost the last election for the CPC;

Prominent Tories turn on leadership hopeful who calls being gay a 'choice'

'I think LGBTQ is a Liberal term,' Richard Décarie tells CTV

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-leadership-decarie-reaction-1.5437302

I guess at least he's not beating around the bush on what he thinks?  Weird strategy though, as Canadians generally tend to reward fiscally responsible politicians that stay out of the bedrooms. Not sure why they care who gets married but it's a pretty quick trip to losing to open that can up. Weird that someone would put the time and effort into it while committing $300k without understanding that basic concept.

Also looks like Polliviere decided not to run. Didn't know he just had a kid; not sure if that's the main reason he decided against running, but never a bad thing to put your family first.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The fact that Jenny Byrne is was going to run Polievre’s campaign ...

FTFY as of late this afternoon ...

Long-time Ontario MP Pierre Poilievre announced today he will not run for the Conservative Party leadership, saying it would be too tough on his family at this time.

Poilievre was expected to announce his candidacy on Sunday in Ottawa, but in a Facebook post late Thursday he said he would not be joining the race to replace outgoing leader Andrew Scheer.

"Over the last several weeks, I have been building a team and support for a possible run for the Conservative leadership. In criss-crossing the country, I have been overwhelmed with the favourable response," he wrote on Facebook.

"I knew it would be hard on my family life to do this. But I did not realize how hard. It is harder still because I had just spent the earlier 18 months campaigning furiously to win back my seat in the recent federal election, during which I mostly missed the first year of our baby's life."

"As such, my heart is not fully engaged in this leadership race. Without being all in, I cannot be in at all. So I have decided not to seek the leadership of the party at this time."

Poilievre said he will continue to serve his Carleton constituents as an MP.

He said he is not currently supporting any other candidate, but will look for a "strong fiscal conservative who will unleash free enterprise so people can achieve their dreams through hard work." ...

 

[Altair]

Peter Mackay is starting to look like the conservative version of Ignatieff.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Peter Mackay is starting to look like the conservative version of Ignatieff.

Huh? 

He wrote a lot of books? Nope 
Is an academic? Nope 
Was highly sought after by the Establishment, and then screwed over by same?  Not really. 
An untested political newbie?  Not at all.

???

 

[Remius]

Huh? 

He wrote a lot of books? Nope 
Is an academic? Nope 
Was highly sought after by the Establishment, and then screwed over by same?  Not really. 
An untested political newbie?  Not at all.

???

You might not recall but when Ignatieff made a bid for the leadership, other potential contenders started dropping until the leadership convention where his election as leader became a formality more than an actual vote.

I think that is what he was alluding to.

 

[Altair]

You might not recall but when Ignatieff made a bid for the leadership, other potential contenders started dropping until the leadership convention where his election as leader became a formality more than an actual vote.

I think that is what he was alluding to.

Exactly what I was alluding to.

 

[Good2Golf]

Good. Without Ambrose, Charest and Polievre in play, perhaps the CPC can focus on what it needs to be to beat the LPC in ‘21.

Regards
G2G

 

[The Bread Guy]

More tea leaves, for what they're worth ....

 

[SeaKingTacco]

That would have been an interesting play. The Liberals have been running against Harper for the past 4 years, even though he wasn't even on the field.

It would have been mighty curious to see what would have happened if he decided to make a comeback...

 

[brihard]

Looks like it's increasingly MacKay's to lose. I like O'Toole personally, but he will struggle to compete with MacKay, I think. I don't see anyone else who really looks to be a contender, and several who are outright jokes.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Bilingualism strikes again ... the Cons need a deeper bench.

 

[Good2Golf]

On verra si ça sera assez profonde.  Je ne suis pas convaincu qu’il faut les compétences linguistiques de Brian Mulroney.  Je crois que Peter MacKay avait démontré une capacité de communiquer assez bien, soit en français, soit en anglais.

G2G

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Bilingualism strikes again ... the Cons need a deeper bench.

Why? Show me one leader of any party born outside Quebec who has done well electorally in Quebec in the last 50 years.

It doesn't matter how bilingual a politician is to Quebecers. It matters if they are from Quebec. Maybe the Conservatives need to stop worrying about the language skills part and instead worry about communication skills.

 

[Blackadder1916]

Show me one leader of any party born outside Quebec who has done well electorally in Quebec in the last 50 years.

Justin Trudeau  -  born Christmas Day 1971 at the Ottawa Civic Hospital.

 

[Good2Golf]

Agree fully, SKT. It will only be a factor to those who see it as such.

The Liberals need to start being very concerned about losing a significant portion of the Maritimes to Peter.  :nod:

:2c:

Justin Trudeau  -  born Christmas Day 1971 at the Ottawa Civic Hospital.

I was going to mention that, Blackadder, but figured there would be those that claim the NCR as ‘essentially non-provincial.’

Further irony is that he was born in the same natal wing of the Civic that the Canadian Government declared Dutch sovereign soil during WWII so that Princess Beatrice could be declared as having been born on Dutch soil and retaining rights to the Dutch Monarchy.  So, Justin was born in Ontario on previously Netherlands territory...


G2G

 

[Brad Sallows]

Mackay stands for what some people miss in the old PC, is perceptibly a moderate, and presumably knows a bit about campaigning in Atlantic Canada.  Unless there's a deep fracture in the CPC, he should be able to lead the party to gains in all regions (except where it already has near-absolute domination).

 

[brihard]

Mackay stands for what some people miss in the old PC, is perceptibly a moderate, and presumably knows a bit about campaigning in Atlantic Canada.  Unless there's a deep fracture in the CPC, he should be able to lead the party to gains in all regions (except where it already has near-absolute domination).

Yup. And even if he's 'not conservative enough' for some of the prairies, CPC can still afford to lose 15% popular support there and sweep the region. I think CPC focused *too* hard on the prairies in the last few years, well past the point of diminishing returns. They pandered harder to their base than the situation called for, and in doing so drove away a lot of moderates and centrists.