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CMMA - replacing the CP140 Aurora

Elon Musk gave a frank talk of the challenges of AI driven cars, computers are not big enough and fast enough to deal with all the variables yet.
The machine learning aspects and predictive behaviors aren’t there yet for civilian roads.

They can do great A to B as long as no unexpected issues occur.

Not being a Pilot I would assume it’s fairly similar to following automated waypoints.


@YZT580
All I know about TCAS came from a 50 page 2011 FAA document, so I am sure I am not current. But it doesn’t seem to need both the aircraft to have TCAS equipped

 
The machine learning aspects and predictive behaviors aren’t there yet for civilian roads.

They can do great A to B as long as no unexpected issues occur.

Not being a Pilot I would assume it’s fairly similar to following automated waypoints.


@YZT580
All I know about TCAS came from a 50 page 2011 FAA document, so I am sure I am not current. But it doesn’t seem to need both the aircraft to have TCAS equipped

transponders are required in both aircraft as it is the transponders that provide the position information. With both aircraft equipped you can obtain an advisory but it is only good if the aircraft respond as predicted. In other words, if I am airborne doing aerobatics or even sight seeing and I execute an unexpected turn or manoeuvre the solution becomes void. Simple example, I am in a climb at 1500 fpm and I plan to level off at 5500 VFR. You are level at 6000 feet and your aircraft detects my rate of climb through say 5000 your TCAS would command an immediate descent based upon going under my flight as you do not know my intentions to level off and descent is more immediate than climb. We will meet at 5500. That is why positive control to the ground is required before autonomous flight is safe.
 
The machine learning aspects and predictive behaviors aren’t there yet for civilian roads.

They can do great A to B as long as no unexpected issues occur.

Not being a Pilot I would assume it’s fairly similar to following automated waypoints.
Then you need the AI to react to unforeseen events. Thunderstorms, windshear, turbulence, aircraft unexpectedly on the runway, etc.

How would an AI react to a situation like this: Investigation Launched Into Close Call Between Southwest Airlines & FedEx Planes ?
 
Then you need the AI to react to unforeseen events. Thunderstorms, windshear, turbulence, aircraft unexpectedly on the runway, etc.

How would an AI react to a situation like this: Investigation Launched Into Close Call Between Southwest Airlines & FedEx Planes ?
Oh don’t think AI is there for planes. My point was poorly worded- basically they can A to B very well, it’s when the unexpected occurs that all bets are off.
I’m not interested in being a statistic for a learning machine of what not to do in future events.

I’m also very leery of anything AI/ML due to War Games and The Terminator…
 
transponders are required in both aircraft as it is the transponders that provide the position information. With both aircraft equipped you can obtain an advisory but it is only good if the aircraft respond as predicted. In other words, if I am airborne doing aerobatics or even sight seeing and I execute an unexpected turn or manoeuvre the solution becomes void. Simple example, I am in a climb at 1500 fpm and I plan to level off at 5500 VFR. You are level at 6000 feet and your aircraft detects my rate of climb through say 5000 your TCAS would command an immediate descent based upon going under my flight as you do not know my intentions to level off and descent is more immediate than climb. We will meet at 5500. That is why positive control to the ground is required before autonomous flight is safe.

Based on the way you worded this, I can’t agree with its accuracy in the “we will meet at 5500” part. The system logic would continue to update the advisory at 1 second intervals and the advisory would change as required ( as the CPA would continue to change)? The advisory(s) would be strengthened, weakened or reversed I think.

Just as a FYI, not all aircraft can perform the RAs as the system intends either. The Aurora is an example, and there are amendments to what to do when if certain RAs are given in our flying instructions.
 
Based on the way you worded this, I can’t agree with its accuracy in the “we will meet at 5500” part. The system logic would continue to update the advisory at 1 second intervals and the advisory would change as required ( as the CPA would continue to change)? The advisory(s) would be strengthened, weakened or reversed I think.

Just as a FYI, not all aircraft can perform the RAs as the system intends either. The Aurora is an example, and there are amendments to what to do when if certain RAs are given in our flying instructions.
so delete the 5500. The point is that you WILL meet. The resolutions don't give you a lot of time to react and trying to go from full down to full up or down to even more down takes a lot of time for response.
 
RAs aren’t limited to singular, they will continue, adjust and change as needed on an ongoing basis. For in close proximity aircraft, it’s a 1 second cycle and RAs can/will be adjusted.

In either of your scenarios, unless (1) the TCAS system fails or (2) the aircraft doesn’t respond to the RAs properly, the aircraft will be altitude-separated.

I don’t know if there has been any studies on RA reaction time between human or AI/computer pilots but that would be interesting to see if anyone knows of any.

Important to note, usually the pilot isn’t blindly given a RA and caught cold. Having been thru a few of these scenarios (radar operators on the Aurora receive TAs and RAs at their station), a TA should normally precede a RA.
 
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RAs aren’t limited to singular, they will continue, adjust and change as needed on an ongoing basis. For in close proximity aircraft, it’s a 1 second cycle and RAs can/will be adjusted.

In either of your scenarios, unless (1) the TCAS system fails or (2) the aircraft doesn’t respond to the RAs properly, the aircraft will be altitude-separated.

I don’t know if there has been any studies on RA reaction time between human or AI/computer pilots but that would be interesting to see if anyone knows of any.

Important to note, usually the pilot isn’t blindly given a RA and caught cold. Having been thru a few of these scenarios (radar operators on the Aurora receive TAs and RAs at their station), a TA should normally precede a RA.
TA then RA definitely when there is time. I spent 10 years of my life dealing with issues like these in safety assessments and I can attest to their limitations. The worst being the first example where the computer believes that the aircraft is behaving in an unsafe manner when in fact the pilot's plan and actions are completely safe. There is no guarantee that the aircraft will miss since it all depends upon response time: both mechanical and human. Accidents are very seldom the result of a single failure but rather the total result of several, But the issue in question was one of auto-control from gate to gate and insurance companies will not at the present even consider signing off on an uncrewed airline style aircraft. The safety case just isn't there. Perhaps the first indication that it may be coming will be when trans-pacific flights are allowed to discontinue staffing a third officer for inflight monitoring
 
🤷🏻‍♂️

…but I can’t wait! (Well I can, but looking forward to the backbrief to Canadians)
I have a different take on it. It will be we know we have to spend alittle i more on defence we will see what we can do. Can we include the Coast Guard, RCMP and few other things in the total? Plus We have the 88 F35 on order. We have 23 navy ships being built and 22 Coast Guard. So we are good. We are working with you on NORAD upgrade.

I believe the Americans know they to defend all of North America but what they need from Canada is for us to mostly shut up and when required support. The current Liberals and NDP have been the most quiet about American foreign policy in the last 50 years. It's very weird. I would suspect a "deal" has been made. Not like a real paper deal. But something like we understand you guys are not a serious nation you can stay that way but you can no longer bite the hand that feeds you.
 
I have a different take on it. It will be we know we have to spend alittle i more on defence we will see what we can do. Can we include the Coast Guard, RCMP and few other things in the total? Plus We have the 88 F35 on order. We have 23 navy ships being built and 22 Coast Guard. So we are good. We are working with you on NORAD upgrade.
Was this serious?

I believe the Americans know they to defend all of North America but what they need from Canada is for us to mostly shut up and when required support. The current Liberals and NDP have been the most quiet about American foreign policy in the last 50 years. It's very weird. I would suspect a "deal" has been made. Not like a real paper deal. But something like we understand you guys are not a serious nation you can stay that way but you can no longer bite the hand that feeds you.
The deal is you stop freeloading, and get buying stuff we tell you too.
 
The deal is you stop freeloading, and get buying stuff we tell you too.
I'm going to ready that popcorn when our MSM catches wind of that.

You know what, I'll even go one step further and draft a few quotes:

CPC: Liberals are not acting in the best interests of all Canadians - something something blindly following the US is bad
NDP: Aren't we peacekeepers?
Bloc: Bombardier is a valued Quebec company
PPC: Whatever MTG is saying at this point. Is it still space lasers?
 
I'm going to ready that popcorn when our MSM catches wind of that.

You know what, I'll even go one step further and draft a few quotes:

CPC: Liberals are not acting in the best interests of all Canadians - something something blindly following the US is bad
NDP: Aren't we peacekeepers?
Bloc: Bombardier is a valued Quebec company
PPC: Whatever MTG is saying at this point. Is it still space lasers?
I’m not sure any of them would notice.
I think most bright lights in Canadian politics died out years ago, and the Parties just stumble around in the dark.
*albeit at least your parties don’t attempt to find the worst candidates for the party to run.
 
Was this serious?


The deal is you stop freeloading, and get buying stuff we tell you too.
Yes its was tongue in cheek. But in all seriousness I would say the US will get mad. But in the end they are more happy if Canada says nothing and doesn't try poking a stick at the US like in the past. So I think they have an agreement you get to freeload but don't complain.
 
The deal is you stop freeloading, and get buying stuff we tell you too.

If that makes us actually buy stuff then yeah! American arms even if not the absolute best for Canada in every case are good quality and have great support.

Better than our indecisive government pandering us into a disaster. Oh wait, too late!
 
It's only fair, really. The MRTT pilots will be racking up hours towards flying A330s for Air Canada, so P8 pilots racking up hours towards flying WestJet 737s just balances things out.
 
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