Bloc Quebecois sets stage for political showdown

[Simon]

Bloc Quebecois sets stage for political showdown
Updated Fri. Sep. 21 2007 11:56 PM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

The Bloc Quebecois has issued a five-point set of demands for the Conservative minority government that appears to be a reaction the party's bruising in byelections earlier this week.


It also appears to be setting the stage for a fall election.


In early September, Prime Minister Stephen Harper decided to delay the opening of the fall session of Parliament by a month. He will go back to the house with a speech from the throne on Oct. 16, setting up the possibility of a fall election if the opposition parties vote against it.


Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe has repeatedly threatened to topple the government unless there is a clear mandate to withdraw troops from Afghanistan by February 2009.

The demands set out Friday are that the government:


Eliminate all federal spending powers in provincial jurisdictions;
Respect the Kyoto Protocol and establish targets for greenhouse gas reductions;
Assistance for workers in the ailing forest industry;
Changes to supply management for dairy farmers;
And finally, "non négociable," in the Throne Speech, an announced end to the combat mission in Afghanistan by Feb. 2009.



These demands come a day after Harper's Quebec lieutenant, Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon, gloated over his party's byelection victory and called the Bloc "useless" in Quebec.


In Monday's Quebec byelections, the Tories took one riding that had been a nationalist stronghold and nearly took another riding they'd lost by 32 percentage points in 2006.


In one other riding, Outremont, the NDP took a seat from the Liberals.


"Mr. Duceppe now knows that his enemy in Quebec is no longer the Liberal Party, it is the federal Conservatives," CTV's Chief Political Correspondent Craig Oliver said.

NDP Leader Jack Layton would not tell reporters Friday about his plans for a vote on the throne speech, but on Monday he said he was likely to oppose it.

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion has said he won't support a Tory throne speech, even if that triggered an election.


A late-August poll for CTV and The Globe and Mail found that support for the Conservatives and Liberals remained stalled over the summer, and tied for support at 33 per cent each.

The survey also found Liberal voters are less committed to their party than Conservative supporters -- an opportunity that the Tories could exploit in an election scenario.


It appears Mr Duceppe has taken the bait, its Harpers to lose now, if he cant get a majority under these conditions, I dont know what to say. Im all for going to the polls,
this will certainly be an exciting election.

 

[GAP]

Yeah, but there is a lot of reading of tea leaves going on here when it comes to firm Tory support.

I agree the trend is toward the Conservatives, simply because the other three parties are essentially pretty weak. Given that, I think there is enough core support for the other three parties to make the decision as to whether to hold an election or not, either way it's going to be a rough ride to get a majority

If Harper can maintain what he has, and that's not certain, especially in Sask. and the Maritimes, he seems to have gained support in Quebec where the Conservatives came in second in around 40 of the Bloc riding's in the last election. Ontario and BC are going to be critical, unless he can get a Blue Wave in Quebec like Mulroney did.

 

[Reccesoldier]

The Conservatives just might be laughing their asses off.

Consider this.*

1.  The CPC make a huge gain in Quebec (if one can extrapolate their victory in the bi-election there last week to a general trend in Quebec)
2.  Lawrence Cannon issues a statement stating that Duceppe and the Bloc are useless in Parliament
3.  Duceppe, stung by the accusation issues his demands for the throne speech. These demands touch enough on other opposition parties stated goals that they will most likely follow the Bloc (or end up branded as flip-flopers on major policy points)
4.  The Conservatives ignore their infantile demands and issues their throne speech unaltered
5.  The opposition 'topples' the government
6.  The Liberals saddled with a poindexter leader despised in Quebec hemorrhage in Quebec (and possibly the rest of the country)
7.  The NDP gain a few token seats at both liberal and Bloc expense in Quebec
8.  The Tories gain enough for a majority without ever being seen as engineering their own defeat.

*In my perfect world.  ;D

 

[IN HOC SIGNO]

I agree with the above post....bring it on M. Duceppe...the country will enjoy watcing your party disappear.

 

[GAP]

Be careful in what you wish for......Mulroney, with his Quebec Blue Wave, is what caused the Bloc to be formed in the first place. It was Bouchard, a Progressive-Conservative, frustrated that Mulroney wouldn't cater more to Quebec separatism, left and formed the Bloc. You want a goodly number of seats from Quebec, but that needs to be balanced by seats from Ontario, and then the west.

A government, Liberal or Conservative, kept in power by any one block of voters, is essentially held to the same strangleholds as a minority government.

 

[Kyu]

I'm from Quebec so I'll try to break down for you all what's probably going to happen here.

New Democratic Party : The NDP is not that popular in Quebec because traditionally it's program includes pan-canadian spending programs on provincial jurisdictions. Even the two "federalist" provincial party don't like the federal to play in it's turf. Most of the leftist crowd in Quebec is either nationalist or separatist, so NDP won't appeal to them; they are most likely to vote for the Green party. However, NDP is liked in Quebec for it's environmentalist stance, and that's a reason why Thomas Mulcair won the by elections in Outremont. Also Quebec had a thing against the military since the Conscription crisis in 1917, so the NDP plea to get out of Afghanistan now may ring a bell to many Quebecers, even more since the Royal 22e Régiment is in Afghanistan.

Bloc Québécois : The Bloc is not likely to die in the next elections. They have few strongholds like in the ultra-nationalist Plateau Mont-Royal sector in Montréal. They may lose few seats to the conservatives since the ADQ wave in the last provincial elections. The "Bloc is working for Quebec" stance is weakened since the Conservatives are less stiff than the Liberals on the stance of provincial jurisdictions. Also Gilles Duceppe leadership is weakened since André Boisclair stepped down as the PQ leader, and his fear to confront Pauline Marois. However don't think the Bloc is dead yet. Many leftist that don't like NDP or the Green party vote for the Bloc, and there is still few separatist strongholds.

Liberal Party of Canada : Stéphane Dion is very disliked in Québec since he is the spiritual son of Jean Chrétien and Pierre Elliott Trudeau. He is strongly hated for his Clarity Act. His lack of charisma and leadership don't help his party. As seen in the by elections, even strongholds like Outremont are NOT assured to the liberals. They won't win if there is a general election this autumn, unless there's a miracle. The Conservatives are much stronger than them.

Conservative Party of Canada : The word on the street in Québec is that the conservatives DO what they say. Quebecers may not like much the conservative way, but they like the fact that they are true to their words. As I said Quebecers don't like the military, so they don't like the fact that Harper is spending money on tanks, big planes (with no repercussion to the Aviation industry in Québec) and in a mission in Afghanistan. Most Quebecers think we are supposed to do peacekeeping and reconstruction in Afghanistan and don't understand why we are fighting the taliban. Since the ADQ stance is close to the Conservative stance, it is likely that the Conservatives will increase their seats in Québec.

With these general elections we will talk about somthing else than whether or not the Habs will make the playoffs!

 

[IN HOC SIGNO]

Good post and I think your "man on the street" perspective is pretty close to what the reality is there by the sounds of things from Francophones I talk to here in Halifax with roots back in Quebec. You don't think the Bloc is dead but what will happen to the Libs if they hold the course with Dion? Will they lose even more seats?

 

[Kyu]

The Bloc is not dead because hard liners are concentrated in select few areas like in Laurier—Sainte-Marie. Actually Gilles Duceppe is my MP. People here in the Plateau, are mostly left-wing artist like Pierre Falardeau, Guy A. Lepage, Michel Tremblay and such. The MP of the small town I come from is also from the Bloc. People there voted for the Bloc because they were so fed up with politicians lying in their faces. That could change with Harper, but people up there in the upper Laurentians live mostly from the forest industry, so they will vote for the party that will help that industry.

Liberals will most likely lose more seats, but Stephane Dion started to try to change his image. If there is an election this autumn it will be too little too late. But if Harper do a major fault or there is a massacre in Afghanistan, things could change very fast.

Don't count your chickens until they're hatched, or so they say.  ;D

 

[Flip]

I believe RecceSoldier is correct in pointing out that there is no way
the government can pander to these "conditions". The opposition is
simply asking too much.  If the liberals were the sitting government
they couldn't answer to the demands set forth.

Each of the opposition parties is making threats and demands like
they are the only ones acting as opposition.  I think  these parties
have all painted themselves into the same crowded corner.

I want to see what they do to squirm out of it.... ;D

As for Mr Dion..... There is a whole universe of things he could
make an issue of and show leadership on.. All he seems to be
able to do is parrot and paraphrase the others.  Even Mr Dithers
was better than that...........  Sad really. 
The liberals may meet their Waterloo......... >

 

[Edward Campbell]

My guess is that Duceppe fears an election but hopes to score some local political points with his five points. He now perceives a need to fight off a (very weak, to be sure) NDP threat to his traditional social-democratic/statist base, too. He can do that by being onside with the NDP on the war.

I'm also guessing that Duceppe is betting that Dion fears a general election even more than he does and he (Dion) will break tradition and vote for the Throne Speech - even if it contains a specific commitment to stay in combat in Afghanistan after 2009 - rather than risk a general election in fall 2007. If Dion votes for the Throne Speech then Duceppe can argue that he, not Dion, is the real opposition leader in Ottawa.

 

[Simon]

I think and I hope that Mr Harper will decide to get the knuckles bloody now, how long can you go hoping people  will vote for you, duceppe has given Harper the out, now its **** or get off the pot, it shouldnt be all about the power, it needs to be about the endorsement. Harper has demonstrated he is a leader, hes demonstrated hes capable and clearly the most intelligent Prime Minister since St laurent. I say strap it on and go for it.


Who mod my post, I said **** and it was changed to ****, what the **** is that, I dont need this **** ;D

 

[RangerRay]

The only condition I can see the PM meeting is elimating federal spending in provincial jurisdiction.  I believe that he actually wants to enshrine that in the Constitution?  Maybe even helping the forest industry, which would help him here in BC.  The other ones, fugedabowdit!

The NDP tend to be strong centralists like the Liberals, so I can't really see them becoming more popular in Quebec.

All I can say is "Bring it!"  ;D