Western Alienation - Split from General Election 2019

[upandatom]

I always like how Albertan separatists think BC leaves with them, the same BC that is fighting tooth and nail to prevent any Alberta pipeline.

Or the North, which reliably votes left.

The more accurate western republic is a landlocked Alberta and Saskatchewan dealing with a very hostile Canada and a USA that doesn't want any more energy competition.

:2c:

Does the UN not require landlocked countries to have access to tidal waters? Well those that at least are part of the UN? As ancient and stubborn as it is? Besides, they would just run the pipe straight south and sell direct to US, or purchase a pipeline there. Remember the US wants to make money, and have an economy, not hand out freebies to everyone on the planet.

 

[upandatom]

Keystone is running into issues as well,  so I can't imagine that going any better.

Just saying,  as a Quebecer,  I've heard all the reasons for not going it alone,  how it would be economic suicide,  and I must say,  comparing the two,  Quebec had a much stronger case for seperation.

Quebec has a seperate identity. Alberta doesn't.

Quebec has a seperate language. Alberta doesn't.

Quebec has access to other markets seperate from the country it would seperate from. Alberta would need to join NAFTA or else it doesnt either.

Quebec has a political parties and leaders pushing for the goal of seperation. Alberta doesn't.

And I want to make clear,  Quebec has a weak claim for seperation. They would suffer greatly if they did it. Alberta,  moreso.

I have to disagree on that claim. Quebec has such a weak claim because it relies upon the handout from federal government. We will be on oil for the long term foreseeable future. Quebecs logging and Maple Syrup export, wont be able to support the social programs in itself.

Alberta could prove to be fruitful going its own way- It may have a rough start, but once things are ironed out, you can bet your ass they would go back into the green again without handing money over for equalization payments.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Am I prepared to kill people?

I have no idea what you are talking about.

You quote all kinds of legal hoops they'd have to jump through. .....I'm giving you a bottom line scenario. 

 

[Altair]

Does the UN not require landlocked countries to have access to tidal waters? Well those that at least are part of the UN? As ancient and stubborn as it is? Besides, they would just run the pipe straight south and sell direct to US, or purchase a pipeline there. Remember the US wants to make money, and have an economy, not hand out freebies to everyone on the planet.

If the US wanted to make money so badly,  keystone would be up and running by now. Remember,  Canada isn't holding up the keystone XL pipeline, the USA is.  And all it takes is one democrat like Obama to shut it down again,  especially since the USA has become energy independent and really doesn't need Alberta oil for anything.

As for the rights to the sea,  sure,  the UN has that. But so does Canada. Canadian goods are to be allowed to pass provincial borders without restrictions. Canadian provinces ignore that all the time. So I have no doubt they would ignore the UN as well, given just how effective the UN is.

 

[mariomike]

We’re doing what’s right for us now the country has failed and is too corrupt to try and save again.

I hear you, Vince.

I've always sensed a friendly East versus West rivalry in hockey and football.

My sister lives in Cold Lake and loves it.

I also read this,

EDMONTON -- The NDP has retained its seat in Edmonton Strathcona, making it the only non-Conservative seat in Alberta.
https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/ndp-retains-edmonton-strathcona-only-non-conservative-riding-in-alberta-1.4649094

Do you get any sense of Urban versus Rural "team rivalry"?

Edit to add,

It's not East / West; it's urban vs everything else.


https://twitter.com/j_mcelroy/status/1186806312241250304

There are 65 federal ridings in Canada with at least 2,500 people per square kilometre.

The Conservative Party didn't win a single one.

There are 123 ridings in this country with between 150 and 2,500 people per square kilometre, from Etobicoke North to Durham. 

The Liberals won 64 of them, the Conservatives 41.

And there are 150 ridings in this country with fewer than 150 people per square kilometre (symmetry!).

The Conservatives won 82 seats, the Liberals 40. 

Tired: Canada's East vs. West divide.
Wired: Canada Urban vs. Everything Else divide.

You quote all kinds of legal hoops they'd have to jump through.

No.

Those are the legal hoops a municipality would have to jump through to become a province.

It has been covered in detail in our six-page "City-state provinces in Canada? Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver" discussion.

My thought was, if it is that difficult for a municipality to exit a province, how difficult would it be for a province to exit Canada?

Perhaps we will soon find out.

 

[Altair]

I have to disagree on that claim. Quebec has such a weak claim because it relies upon the handout from federal government.

To an extent. Quebec does receice equalization but at one of the lowest per capita ratios in Canada. PEI,  NFLD receive much more per capita. And quebec has more industries than logging and maple syrup. Far more diversified than the Alberta econony actually. Not to badmouth Alberta,  but the reason they are in the world of hurt they are in is largly because global oil prices are half what they were at their peak. Lack of pipeline is compounding the issue,  but its hard to escape that fundamental fact that oil prices have dropped off from their 100 dollar a barrel high to the mid 50s now. And with US becoming a energy exporter from a energy importer,  that is only going to add to the global glut

  We will be on oil for the long term foreseeable future. Quebecs logging and Maple Syrup export, wont be able to support the social programs in itself.

Quebecs,  and any future Alberta would simply take their federal portion of taxes(doubling taxes to make up for the portion no longer going to ottawa)  to pay for their programs. But both would be screwed once dumped with their portion of the federal debt. I think albertas portion would be around 70 billion. And with the higher interest rate to pay it(Alberta being a far riskier jurisdiction to lend to as a independent country) simply playing the interests on it will be brutal. And if Alberta simply skips out on the bill,  being sanctioned to high heaven will not be pleasant either.

Alberta could prove to be fruitful going its own way- It may have a rough start, but once things are ironed out, you can bet your *** they would go back into the green again without handing money over for equalization payments.

Any future for Alberta requires access to the sea,  whether in Canada or out if it.

With the USA being a unreliable partner(keystone XL,  Democrats,  protectionism) and Canada not about to do Alberta any favors,  being landlocked with even more hurdles to face getting oil to markets(No NAFTA,  no WTO) Alberta will not have a good go. Not at all.

Again,  Quebec has access to the sea,  that's a huge plus. While locked out of the Canadian and American markets,  Quebec could desperately look overseas for some respite. Alberta only has two options,  Canada and the USA and if they don't pan out Alberta is screwed.

 

[McG]

The Trudeau’s are country killers.

There is a pair of western premiers dabbling in populism and not helping the situation.

Anyway, the election results are not a sign that the rest of Canada is turning its back on the Prairies.  The election results are a symptom of the gross distortion of reward that first past the post voting can give to the biggest minority in any given riding.

 

[Jarnhamar]

No more Wainwright?

 

[Altair]

No more Wainwright?

That is one plus to all of this.

 

[VinceW]

To an extent. Quebec does receice equalization but at one of the lowest per capita ratios in Canada. PEI,  NFLD receive much more per capita. And quebec has more industries than logging and maple syrup. Far more diversified than the Alberta econony actually. Not to badmouth Alberta,  but the reason they are in the world of hurt they are in is largly because global oil prices are half what they were at their peak. Lack of pipeline is compounding the issue,  but its hard to escape that fundamental fact that oil prices have dropped off from their 100 dollar a barrel high to the mid 50s now. And with US becoming a energy exporter from a energy importer,  that is only going to add to the global glut Quebecs,  and any future Alberta would simply take their federal portion of taxes(doubling taxes to make up for the portion no longer going to ottawa)  to pay for their programs. But both would be screwed once dumped with their portion of the federal debt. I think albertas portion would be around 70 billion. And with the higher interest rate to pay it(Alberta being a far riskier jurisdiction to lend to as a independent country) simply playing the interests on it will be brutal. And if Alberta simply skips out on the bill,  being sanctioned to high heaven will not be pleasant either. Any future for Alberta requires access to the sea,  whether in Canada or out if it.

With the USA being a unreliable partner(keystone XL,  Democrats,  protectionism) and Canada not about to do Alberta any favors,  being landlocked with even more hurdles to face getting oil to markets(No NAFTA,  no WTO) Alberta will not have a good go. Not at all.

Again,  Quebec has access to the sea,  that's a huge plus. While locked out of the Canadian and American markets,  Quebec could desperately look overseas for some respite. Alberta only has two options,  Canada and the USA and if they don't pan out Alberta is screwed.

We’d still be in this situation with a far left coalition taking matters in our hands is the only way to go now.

 

[FSTO]

Do you get any sense of Urban versus Rural "team rivalry"?

I firmly straddle this divide. I've likely lived in medium sized cities for the majority of my life (Halifax, Victoria, Regina, and Ottawa now) but I'm still acutely connected to my rural/farming roots.

The one big thing that exacerbates the rural/urban divide is lack of knowledge of each other. Although there are few if any rural people who have never entered a city (2nd line medical care for instance), the big take away I hear is that "cities are great to visit but how can they live like that?" Meanwhile the amount of urban Canadians who have never left their city (except to fly out for a vacation or to go to another city) likely numbers in the millions. When I'm at work or in social settings in the city I can likely count on my hand the number of people who have actually seen the prairies (except for Army and RCAF pers of course), or driven off the TCH, or know a farmer or resource worker. Their knowledge of rural Canada is abysmally low or is full of clichés. Rural Canadians in depth knowledge of our urban reality is not that great either and they have their own clichés of urbanists but they cannot help (unless they completely cut off from media) to have a smattering of exposure to urban issues. Neither side is really trying hard to understand the "other".
As for me, when I'm in the city I try to explain the rural world to city people and when I'm out at the farm I try to explain why city people support the Liberals, question the way farmers produce their food, and seemingly look down upon on the Prairies (mainly due to ignorance, not malice)

I really don't see this divide getting any better to be honest.

 

[dapaterson]

We’d still be in this situation with a far left coalition taking matters in our hands is the only way to go now.

Alberta has repeatedly mismanaged its own finances for a generation (at least).  Heritage Fund - Good.  Not paying into it, overpaying for services because the good times would never end - Bad.

Not claiming any virtue east of Lloydminster - but Alberta has been the author of parts of its own misfortune.

 

[FSTO]

Alberta has repeatedly mismanaged its own finances for a generation (at least).  Heritage Fund - Good.  Not paying into it, overpaying for services because the good times would never end - Bad.

Not claiming any virtue east of Lloydminster - but Alberta has been the author of parts of its own misfortune.

I think a 5% GST in the province would help a lot.

 

[Altair]

We’d still be in this situation with a far left coalition taking matters in our hands is the only way to go now.

Okay. Again, I'll look at the polls come 2022 and see how the federalist parties in Alberta do (UCP-NDP) compared to the separatist parties.

Again, from a Quebec perspective, prepare for a lot of struggles.

Building a new party from scratch.

Winning a election.

Having all of federation against you.

Getting support for separation.

Winning a referendum. (Takes 2-3 tries, ask Quebec and Scotland)

Negotiating a clean break (Hello Brexit)

Then on day one, face all the problems you faced before separation, only exacerbated.

Best of luck.

 

[Altair]

I think a 5% GST in the province would help a lot.

5 percent GST in Alberta would raise about 8 billion dollars in revenue.

The Alberta provincial deficit is 7 billion.

Alberta could be running a budget surplus right now but they are crying poor due to their own dogmatic opposition to a sales tax.

That's not a equalization problem, that's a fiscal mismanagement problem.

 

[upandatom]

There is a pair of western premiers dabbling in populism and not helping the situation.

Anyway, the election results are not a sign that the rest of Canada is turning its back on the Prairies.  The election results are a symptom of the gross distortion of reward that first past the post voting can give to the biggest minority in any given riding.

It is their right though, they are responsible to their province. They have to fight for their constituents.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Does Alberta provide money for other provinces? Equalization or whatever its called?

 

[Altair]

Does Alberta provide money for other provinces? Equalization or whatever its called?

yes, although that's not how it works.

Every province pays into Equalization, not every province receives money back.

And a part of the equalization formula counts fiscal capacity, which is where Alberta not having the sales tax really hurts them.

Quebec, for example tends to max out fiscal capacity, being one of the highest taxed jurisdictions. Alberta tends to be one of the lower taxed jurisdictions. So the formula looks at Quebec and recognizes that they don't have much more room to raise revenue to pay for services, while Alberta has access to somewhere in the region of 8 billion dollars a year that they aren't accessing even though they could.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Thanks for explaining that Altair.

 

[Altair]

Thanks for explaining that Altair.

Equalization is also really poor at dealing with rapid falls in specific industries, in this case the energy industry. Equalization is suppose to be tied to services, maintaining a equal standard of services across Canada. Not to top up provincial finances or save industries from collapse.

So Quebec has a lower average wage, lower per capita income than places like Alberta. Alberta, for all the pain its going through, still has some of the highest average incomes in Canada, and as such can still pay to maintain some of the best health care services in Canada. Alberta isn't going to be in line for equalization payments until its services fall below the national average, which can take quite a while. It can happen, especially if the energy slump continues and there is less and less money to invest in the things like health care, but that can take quite a while from industry crash to services drop.