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Venezuela Superthread- Merged

Floods of refugees flee the socialist paradise. Ether a crackdown of exiting or a "wall" may be the government's response, but who knows how long things can remain the way they are now?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/12/14/flood-venezuelans-fleeing-their-depressed-country/941463001/

Flood of Venezuelans are fleeing depressed country. Here's where they're seeking refuge
Simeon Tegel, Special to USA TODAY Published 2:31 p.m. ET Dec. 14, 2017 | Updated 8:01 a.m. ET Dec. 15, 2017

LIMA, Peru — It is 8 a.m. and the line of Venezuelan refugees outside the Interpol office already stretches to the end of the block.

Most have just arrived in Lima with not much more than the clothes on their back and are here applying for a certificate to show they have no criminal record, a requirement for a work permit in Peru.

“Leaving was tough, but staying would have been tougher,” said Andrea Sequiera, 29, as she waits at the back of the line with her husband Luis, 31, and 8-year-old son Fabian. ”We know lots of people who would like to get out of Venezuela but can’t afford the ticket.”

Although Venezuelans for years have been fleeing the “socialist revolution” first launched by the late Hugo Chávez in 1999, in recent months the trickle has turned into a flood as living conditions become ever more dire — from hyperinflation to acute shortages of food and medicine to one of the worst homicide rates in the world.

More: Trump administration unleashes more Venezuela sanctions following state election problems

More: Venezuela's latest deadly plight: AIDS

In response to protests over the once-wealthy country's seeming demise, President Nicolás Maduro’s increasingly authoritarian regime has cracked down on opponents, making prospects for improved times less and less likely.

While many exiles had fled to the United States, surging numbers, like the Sequieras, now head to other Latin American nations. The change probably stems from President Trump’s tough anti-immigration stance and the fact that fewer Venezuelans can afford the airfare.

From Mexico to Argentina, immigration agencies are reporting skyrocketing numbers of Venezuelan arrivals, doubling and even tripling the total for previous years.

The Sequieras have been in Lima just four days, after a grueling six-day bus trip from their native Valencia, Venezuela’s third-largest city. They rented a small room in a gritty eastern suburb and are now looking to start a new life in Peru.

The Sequieras became desperate as their wages became increasingly worthless — Andrea’s pay as a human resources coordinator and her husband's at Empresas Polar, Venezuela’s largest food and beverage company. “The worst thing is not being able to feed him,” she said nodding toward their son.

The final straw came when a tire on their car ruptured beyond repair and they couldn't find a replacement, making the vehicle useless — in the nation with the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Then the couple spent five days searching in vain for an antibiotic to treat a boil on young Fabian’s arm.

Peru introduced a special temporary visa in February to address the growing humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. Nearly 30,000 Venezuelans have applied so far for the visa, which includes a temporary work permit.

The exodus from Venezuela has caused tension in some Latin American countries. In Panama, the flood of citizens from the much larger neighbor now competing for jobs has stoked nationalistic sentiment, said Harold Trinkunas, an international security expert at Stanford University who grew up in Venezuela. Panama responded by tightening visa requirements.

Other countries have coped better, particularly Colombia, which has called on its extensive refugee system, originally created to help those displaced from its civil war that recently ended.

Another change is that most Venezuelan immigrants are now simply looking to survive, instead of wanting to send money back home to support family members, said Garrinzon González, who runs the Venezuelan Union in Peru, a self-help group for immigrants in Lima that has nearly 20,000 Facebook followers.

“There’s nothing to buy in the shops in Venezuela now anyway,” he said. “Here you can have a roof over your head and stable work very quickly after you arrive.”

The Venezuelan diaspora is estimated to be about 1.1 million — more than 4% of the population — although the country long ago stopped publishing official numbers. Many hope to return to Venezuela and help their homeland recover once there is a political transition. They don't know when that might happen, and the longer they stay abroad, the more they put down roots.

“I want to go back and help lift my country up again, but I am at an age where I want to be established and have a family,” said Patricia Acosta, 38, an MBA who arrived in Peru in April and now consults for the Spanish telecom giant Telefónica. “This really hurts. Venezuelans don’t have a culture of emigration. The expectation is that grandparents will see their grandkids growing up.”

That may hinder Venezuela’s recovery, because most emigrants are university-educated professionals who play a vital role in the economy. “Venezuela’s brain drain is a brain gain for its neighbors,” Trinkunas said.

The Sequieras are not even thinking that far ahead. Their priority is to sort out their papers, find work, rent an apartment and get Fabian back to school as quickly as possible.

“We want to make friends and have a good life here,” Andrea Sequiera said. “We would like to go back, but right now we are focused on just rebuilding our lives.”
 
Venezuelans stop accepting Bolivars for day to day economic activities. The real question is how long can this go on?:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy/venezuelans-scramble-to-survive-as-merchants-demand-dollars-idUSKBN1EK0XK

Venezuelans scramble to survive as merchants demand dollars
Eyanir Chinea, Maria Ramirez

CARACAS/CIUDAD GUAYANA, Venezuela (Reuters) - There was no way Jose Ramon Garcia, a food transporter in Venezuela, could afford new tires for his van at $350 each.

Whether he opted to pay in U.S. currency or in the devalued local bolivar currency at the equivalent black market price, Garcia would have had to save up for years.

Though used to expensive repairs, this one was too much and put him out of business. “Repairs cost an arm and a leg in Venezuela,” said the now-unemployed 42-year-old Garcia, who has a wife and two children to support in the southern city of Guayana.

“There’s no point keeping bolivars.”

For a decade and a half, strict exchange controls have severely limited access to dollars. A black market in hard currency has spread in response, and as once-sky-high oil revenue runs dry, Venezuela’s economy is in free-fall.

The practice adopted by gourmet and design stores in Caracas over the last couple of years to charge in dollars to a select group of expatriates or Venezuelans with access to greenbacks is fast spreading.

Food sellers, dental and medical clinics, and others are starting to charge in dollars or their black market equivalent - putting many basic goods and services out of reach for a large number of Venezuelans.

According to the opposition-led National Assembly, November’s rise in prices topped academics’ traditional benchmark for hyperinflation of more than 50 percent a month - and could end the year at 2,000 percent. The government has not published inflation data for more than a year.

“I can’t think in bolivars anymore, because you have to give a different price every hour,” said Yoselin Aguirre, 27, who makes and sells jewelry in the Paraguana peninsula and has recently pegged prices to the dollar. “To survive, you have to dollarize.”

The socialist government of the late president Hugo Chavez in 2003 brought in the strict controls in order to curb capital flight, as the wealthy sought to move money out of Venezuela after a coup attempt and major oil strike the previous year.

Oil revenue was initially able to bolster artificial exchange rates, though the black market grew and now is becoming unmanageable for the government.

President Nicolas Maduro has maintained his predecessor’s policies on capital controls. Yet, the spread between the strongest official rate, of some 10 bolivars per dollar, and the black market rate, of around 110,000 per dollar, is now huge.

While sellers see a shift to hard currency as necessary, buyers sometimes blame them for speculating.

Rafael Vetencourt, 55, a steel worker in Ciudad Guayana, needed a prostate operation priced at $250.

“We don’t earn in dollars. It’s abusive to charge in dollars!” said Vetencourt, who had to decimate his savings to pay for the surgery.

In just one year, Venezuela’s currency has weakened 97.5 per cent against the greenback, meaning $1,000 of local currency purchased then would be worth just $25 now.

Maduro blames black market rate-publishing websites such as DolarToday for inflating the numbers, part of an “economic war” he says is designed by the opposition and Washington to topple him.

On Venezuela’s borders with Brazil and Colombia, the prices of imported oil, eggs and wheat flour vary daily in line with the black market price for bolivars.

In an upscale Caracas market, cheese-filled arepas, the traditional breakfast made with corn flour, increased 65 percent in price in just two weeks, according to tracking by Reuters reporters. In the same period, a kilogram of ham jumped a whopping 171 percent.

The runaway prices have dampened Christmas celebrations, which this season were characterized by shortages of pine trees and toys, as well as meat, chicken and cornmeal for the preparation of typical dishes.

In one grim festive joke, a Christmas tree in Maracaibo, the country’s oil capital and second city, was decorated with virtually worthless low-denomination bolivar bills.

Most Venezuelans, earning just $5 a month at the black market rate, are nowhere near being able to save hard currency.

“How do I do it? I earn in bolivars and have no way to buy foreign currency,” said Cristina Centeno, a 31-year-old teacher who, like many, was seeking remote work online before Christmas in order to bring in some hard currency.

Additional reporting by Andreina Aponte and Leon Wietfeld in Caracas, Mircely Guanipa in Maracay, Anggy Polanco in San Cristobal, Lenin Danieri in Maracaibo; Writing by Girish Gupta; Editing by Leslie Adler
 
As the economy collapses, Venezuela tries to apply band-aids. As anyone who is following the "living wage" movement story in places as diverse as California and Ontario know, artificially raising minimum wages (disconnected to productivity) simply prices unskilled labour out of the job market. A 40% increase decreed by Venezuela's government will have similar effects in an economy which is already suffering dire distortions:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-inflation-minimum-wage-increase-president-nicolas-maduro-economic-crisis-a8137056.html

Venezuela raises minimum wage by 40% as economic crisis deepens
Economists warn move will accelerate inflation in country where price rises have plunged millions into poverty
Chris Baynes Monday 1 January 2018 19:30 GMT

Venezuela is to raise its minimum wage by 40 per cent, a move which could worsen high levels of inflation in the crisis-stricken nation.

President Nicolas Maduro said the new pay level would protect workers against what he called Washington’s “economic war” on socialism.

But most economists say his socialist government is in fact stoking a vicious cycle in a country already wrestling with the world’s fastest inflation.

The new minimum wage will come into force in January, President Maduro announced during a televised end-of-year speech, and follows six previous pay hikes in 2017.

The move is intended to counter quickening inflation coupled with a depreciating bolivar, a situation that has plunged millions of people into poverty in the once-thriving oil-rich nation.

Venezuelans will now earn at least 797,510 bolivars a month, factoring in food tickets – or just over $7 (£5.10) on the widely used black market index. Millions will still be unable to afford three meals a day or basic medicine, while the increase is likely to stoke inflation further.

Prices went up 1,369 per cent between January and November last year, according to figures released by the opposition-led Congress, which estimated the 2017 rate would top 2,000 per cent.

Economists generally say a country is in hyperinflation when the monthly rate tops 50 per cent for three months, or annual rates remain above three digits for three years.

Venezuela’s central bank reported inflation of 180 per cent and 240 per cent in 2015 and 2016, which had been the highest on record. It has since stopped publishing inflation data.

Opposition politicians say President Maduro’s refusal to overhaul Venezuela‘s state-led economic model and stop excessive printing of money will create more misery in 2018.

The President, however, spent much of his half-hour address blaming others for the country’s woes.

He said foreign and local media were spreading “negative propaganda”€ while Venezuela was facing “attacks” on its currency, and there were attempts to “sabotage” its oil industry.

Hundreds of Venezuelans took to the streets in parts of the capital Caracas last week to protest a shortage of pork for traditional Christmas meals.

President Maduro’s government had promised to provide subsidised meat to Venezuelans at the end of a fourth year of recession, but in many parts it did not materialise and frustrations boiled over.
 
Slow motion collapse continues. A possible benefit for Canada is the removal of Venezuelan oil from the market will temporarily spike prices and provide some extra revenue for Canadian producers.

https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/286288/

LATE-STAGE SOCIALISM: Venezuela’s Oil Production Is Collapsing. “Sharp drop in output increases the odds of a debt default, worsens economic crisis.”

Production fell 216,000 barrels a day to 1.6 million in a month to December, the 15th consecutive monthly decline, according to data reported by Venezuelan government to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries released Thursday. During 2017 as a whole, Venezuelan output fell 649,000 barrels a day, a decline of 29%.

This ranks among the deepest declines in the industry’s recent history. Russia’s output slid 23% during the fall of the Soviet Union, and Iraq’s output dropped by the same share after the 2003 U.S. invasion, according to data from OPEC and BP Statistical Review.

The decline has been caused by a deep economic crisis and widespread corruption and mismanagement, compounded by a purge of state-run Petroleos de Venezuela SA by President Nicolás Maduro that has paralyzed the oil giant. U.S. sanctions have scared off some of the last remaining investors.

“In Venezuela there is no war, nor strike, but what’s left of the oil industry is crumbling on its own,” said Evanán Romero, a former PdVSA director.

Since the country exports little else, Venezuela’s centrally planned economy relies on oil exports for 95% of its hard currency, according to the latest official data. That means the output decline will add more pressure to the government, which has drastically cut back on imports of everything from machinery to food and medicines to make ends meet. The economy has shrunk an estimated 40% in the past four years.

And yet I had been assured just last week that Venezuela’s oil production was in full recovery, and as recently as yesterday that Venezuela was suffering a mere recession due entirely to low oil prices.

Excerpt from WSJ, requires subscription to read full article.
 
If the story is true the President may have considered an invasion of Venezuela.No queation that it would be doable but at what cost ?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-pressed-aides-on-venezuela-invasion-us-official-says/ar-AAzylz6?ocid=spartandhp
 
I think it's fair for Trump to ask his advisors if it is a good idea and clearly they said no, he also asked the other South American leaders as well who supported the no side. The "official" leaking this gained himself brownie points with the press, while at the same time doing the same damage he said Trump did. The whole anti-US thing will only be swallowed by a shrinking minority of regime supporters.
 
China moving in to pick up some pieces. The collapse of the oil industry and re imposition of sanctions on Iran might spike the price of oil in the short run, but increasing China and Russia's influence in the region is clearly not a good thing. Certainly the President was considering options when thinking about the ability for America to secure Venezuela, but other options might work as well. The idea the Chinese and Russians might invest billions of dollars into a Venezuelan "sinkhole", never to be recovered, might actually work in "our" favour in the longer run. (As an aside, Canada's east coast imports Venezuelan oil as well. Not having access to Alberta oil might come back to haunt them).

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-save-venezuela-collapsing-oil-210000270.html

"Lengthy posts and fully quoted articles are posted here. Link to these large posts in the regular boards."
https://milnet.ca/forums/threads/128379.0.html
 
In 1994, my brother and i visited the rusting remains of a Russian mining camp near Km 88 (small town). The Russians tried to operate there, but the whole country even back them was strangled by corruption. Any agreement the Chinese get with the current government might not be worth much. Now if they set up a port enclave, pay locals in hard currency and maintain their security force (both Chinese and local Mercs) then they will have influence. But is it worth it for what is not the best oil a long way from home? The geopolitical value might outweigh the pure economic value of the enclave. How long is that worth maintaining would be a good question. Not to mention the oil industry there is going to require expensive investment at every point along the way from extraction to shiploading. Plus you then have to protect that investment. A black money hole for now.
 
Colin P said:
In 1994, my brother and i visited the rusting remains of a Russian mining camp near Km 88 (small town). The Russians tried to operate there, but the whole country even back them was strangled by corruption. Any agreement the Chinese get with the current government might not be worth much. Now if they set up a port enclave, pay locals in hard currency and maintain their security force (both Chinese and local Mercs) then they will have influence. But is it worth it for what is not the best oil a long way from home? The geopolitical value might outweigh the pure economic value of the enclave. How long is that worth maintaining would be a good question. Not to mention the oil industry there is going to require expensive investment at every point along the way from extraction to shiploading. Plus you then have to protect that investment. A black money hole for now.

Depends on if Trump escalates this trade war to include oil.  The China will go to whatever source it can control.
 
Nigeria is closer, along with Iran. If the PLAN escorted a Chinese flagged tanker into and out of a Iranian oil port, do you think the USN will interfere, yes protests would be made through official channels, but that is about it. Iranian oil is better and closer. Venezuela is about as far from China as you can get. 
 

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Maduro doesn't even trust his own soldiers. Not only Russians coming in, but I read a week or so back, Cuba is supplying his palace guard.
 
Fitting....

A month before his death, on Nov 9th 1830, Simon Bolivar wrote a last letter:

"I have derived only a few certainties:
1. South America is ungovernable
2. those who serve a revolution plough the sea
3. the only thing one can do is to emigrate
4. the country will fall into the hands of the masses and then into the hands of tyrants
5. devoured by all crimes and extinguished by ferocity, the Europeans will not deign to conquer us
6. If it were possible for any part of the world to revert to primitive chaos, it would be [Venezuela] in her final hour."
 
daftandbarmy said:
Fitting....

A month before his death, on Nov 9th 1830, Simon Bolivar wrote a last letter:

. . .

Depending on the source, I suppose the translation may differ, however, the text in Spanish would indicate that this may be a more accurate rendition.

"As you know, I have led for twenty years and have obtained only a few certain results:
1. America is ungovernable.
2. He who serves a revolution plows the sea.
3. The only thing one can do in America is emigrate.
4. This country will fall unfailingly into the hands of the unbridled crowd and then pass almost imperceptibly to tyrants of all colors and races.
5. Devoured by all crimes and extinguished by ferocity, the Europeans will not deign to conquer us.
6. If it were possible for one part of the world to return to primitive chaos, this would be the last period of America. "


Whether his reference to America is limited to the Southern continent is open to interpretation, but he is also credited with:

"The United States appear to be destined by Providence to plague America with misery in the name of liberty."

 
There are 20000 Cubans in country. We think most are Army. The Cubans say they are medical workers. I think without the Cubans the government would fall. Reminds me of Grenada.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/cuban-troops-venezuela-cuban-diplomat-tells-ap-62759311
 
Interesting conjunction of quotes:
Blackadder1916 said:
"The United States appear to be destined by Providence to plague America with misery in the name of liberty."
tomahawk6 said:
Reminds me of Grenada.
      :pop:

I can't imagine the difficulty in deciding which tyrants and dictators are to be embraced and which are an evil scourge to be vanquished. :dunno:
 
The Venezuelan Army has around 120000 in addition to the 20000 Cubans may be able to put up a stiff fight. I don't know if we could kick in the door without either the support of Colombia or units from the National Guard. To start with we would deploy special operations forces and Marines. Assembling the naval resources for  an invasion would be a tip off. Flying the 82d to Venezuela might take every C17/C5 we have. Much better for Moduro to fold and retire to Cuba. 
 
Its unwise to underestimate your opponent.

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/guaidó-says-venezuelan-opposition-overestimated-military-support-before-failed-uprising-1.579784

CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó on Saturday acknowledged errors made in attempting to stir a military uprising, and he did not discard a U.S. military option in Venezuela alongside domestic forces — saying he would take any such offer from Washington to a vote in the country's National Assembly.
 
A lot of the military brass there have their future pegged on the Socialists, so unlikely many will come over. I also suspect that the army was purged of anyone who did not fully support the "revolution". Eventually they overthrow the government when they and their families can no longer eat.
 
Massive protests can be a turning point as we saw in Romania and E Germany.People Power !!
 
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