Trudeau Popularity - or not. Nanos research

[Kirkhill]

A related issue is Gentrification.

A lot of Vancouver's docks (Commercial Dr, Foot of Gore area) have been effectively closed because Condos were more profitable and Condo owners didn't want the noises, smells and inconvenience of commercial activity. So jobs, taxes and workers were chased away and house prices increased.

Is Vancouver headed for a future where none of the residents actually work for a living? Their needs are all met by robots? Just wondering, in that bright future, who pays the bills?

 

[Eaglelord17]

So if we automate, we run the very real risk of laying off thousands of people from their jobs...

(It isn't really a risk, it's a guarantee...that's the whole point of automation as Brad points out)

But if we don't automate, we run the inherent risks that come with being a laggard & not keeping up with the rest of the world...



I read the article, and it seems to do a decent job of weighing the pros & the cons. Some things probably could be done more efficiently by machines, or that the machines would pay themselves off & the investments in them would make business at the ports much more cost efficient.

But my concern (and maybe this is more of a concern for the long run) is that a lot of workers would lose their jobs in an area of the country that already doesn't seem to have a ton of jobs.

Automation will cost jobs, fighting it is really the only response they have.

Simple example, my current workplace employed 14000 people back in the early 90s. Then automation happened and that reduced the number down to 4000. Today its sitting at 2600 or so. In 5 years when some more modernization comes online there will be approximately 1800 employees. We will also be producing twice the product we were in the 90s.

That being said all the jobs lost were the classic no schooling required decent pay jobs. Now those types of people will only have job options in places like Home Depot or Wally world. It also isn't as good for the economy as with less good paying jobs it equals lower tax income. It also equals less people spending money locally. When a big corporation makes money they hoard it/their investors hoard it. When a local worker makes money they tend to spend most of it locally be it on groceries, housing, etc.

The benefits of automation isn't passed on to the communities or workers, it all goes to the multinational corporation who conveniently doesn't even pay much taxes. Rich get richer and the poor gets poorer. The middle class is slowly being eroded away.

 

[Brad Sallows]

A related issue is Gentrification.

A lot of Vancouver's docks (Commercial Dr, Foot of Gore area) have been effectively closed because Condos were more profitable and Condo owners didn't want the noises, smells and inconvenience of commercial activity. So jobs, taxes and workers were chased away and house prices increased.

Is Vancouver headed for a future where none of the residents actually work for a living? Their needs are all met by robots? Just wondering, in that bright future, who pays the bills?

Those dock areas - which include places my grandfather used to moor his salmon troller and deliver fish - closed because of the substantial increases in property values. I doubt the new residents ever had to complain, in the same way that the new residents of all the developments lining False Creek never had to complain. The change from low-value uses to high-value uses was too rapid.

The shift of peoples' time (and of property) from lower-value uses to higher-value uses is how wealth is created.

If future work forces are smaller or work shorter hours, it will be because the value of their work is still enough to keep the ball rolling.

 

[Kirkhill]

Those dock areas - which include places my grandfather used to moor his salmon troller and deliver fish - closed because of the substantial increases in property values. I doubt the new residents ever had to complain, in the same way that the new residents of all the developments lining False Creek never had to complain. The change from low-value uses to high-value uses was too rapid.

The locals did complain. I was personally involved in helping West Coast Reduction and JS McMillan respond to the concerns of their new neighbours. Admittedly it all happened very fast. And was resolved very fast. (Funny how 5 years looks different from this end than it did from the other end. )

The shift of peoples' time (and of property) from lower-value uses to higher-value uses is how wealth is created.

Buy low, sell high works in all cases. No doubt.

If future work forces are smaller or work shorter hours, it will be because the value of their work is still enough to keep the ball rolling.

But the opportunity to become a member of that ever diminishing workforce decreases and with it the opportunity to buy assets at a low value and sell them at a high value. It becomes harder for more people to generate wealth for themselves. And more concentration of wealth occurs.

The value of digging ditches was that any fit body could dig a hole and get paid for it. Whether they got drunk or built a family was their choice.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The benefits of automation isn't passed on to the communities or workers, it all goes to the multinational corporation who conveniently doesn't even pay much taxes. Rich get richer and the poor gets poorer. The middle class is slowly being eroded away.

The benefits of automation are passed on to everyone, as are almost all of the beneficial changes wrought by ordinary, relatively free, trade. The costs fall on the few; the benefits accrue to the many; overall, benefits exceed costs. In the 2020s we are much better off than people of any earlier time.

The middle class is not being eroded unfavourably. To the extent the middle class might be shrinking, it is because people are moving up and out of it. But at the same time people are moving up and out of the lower class into the middle class. I could wish this myth that the middle class is shrinking into the lower class would die, but it's persistent (ignorance, prejudice, ideological blindness, basic stupidity). I will stipulate that one might find a few months or even a couple of years during which the trend moves that way, but long term it decidedly is not.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The locals did complain.

The value of digging ditches was that any fit body could dig a hole and get paid for it.

My point is that the weight of complaints was nothing compared to the shift in property values. I doubt the complaints were even a rounding error.

No-one builds wealth digging ditches. Again: shift uses of time from low-value to high-value.

The problem with increasingly high-valued uses of time is that the purchasing power of people capable of only low-valued output falls increasingly far behind.

Obviously people who lose work mostly find other work, or - again - we can't explain how we got from the pre-WWII agrarian/resource economy to the one we have today. Since employees apparently are currently in high demand, the prospects of people losing work are probably favourable right now. I don't deprecate the difficulty and stress of transitions, but I do emphasize how much of it has happened without many of those affected being singled out for special compassionate treatment.

 

[Kirkhill]

Automation will cost jobs, fighting it is really the only response they have.

Simple example, my current workplace employed 14000 people back in the early 90s. Then automation happened and that reduced the number down to 4000. Today its sitting at 2600 or so. In 5 years when some more modernization comes online there will be approximately 1800 employees. We will also be producing twice the product we were in the 90s.

That being said all the jobs lost were the classic no schooling required decent pay jobs. Now those types of people will only have job options in places like Home Depot or Wally world. It also isn't as good for the economy as with less good paying jobs it equals lower tax income. It also equals less people spending money locally. When a big corporation makes money they hoard it/their investors hoard it. When a local worker makes money they tend to spend most of it locally be it on groceries, housing, etc.

The benefits of automation isn't passed on to the communities or workers, it all goes to the multinational corporation who conveniently doesn't even pay much taxes. Rich get richer and the poor gets poorer. The middle class is slowly being eroded away.

The problem is that the problem isn't new.

James Watt put millions of slaves out of work and denied them room and board. He forced them into the fields as share-croppers. Just as he forced thousands of cottage weavers out of their cottages and into Arkwright's factories. Ned Ludd has been with us for a while.

The Luddites, and their politically correct offspring the Chartists, weren't wrong in their concerns, or even in their tactics. The unions aren't wrong today either. I have no answers. But nobody else seems to have them either.

 

[Kirkhill]

My point is that the weight of complaints was nothing compared to the shift in property values. I doubt the complaints were even a rounding error.

West Coast Reduction could probably have made a good dollar from selling its property but it chose to hang in. J. S. McMillan seems to have moved.

No-one builds wealth digging ditches. Again: shift uses of time from low-value to high-value.

I disagree there. The original Navvies, competing with other Navvies, had the opportunity to put money in their jeans. Some of them made bank and created their own little piles of wealth.
Today a woman with a backhoe has the same opportunity.
But fewer backhoes and fewer operators are needed so fewer opportunities to convert sweat equity into capital. And the step from entry level to wealthy becomes greater. The ladder disappears.

The problem with increasingly high-valued uses of time is that the purchasing power of people capable of only low-valued output falls increasingly far behind.

Agree there. Which I believe to be a major problem and one that is not solved by creating credentialled training establishments which restrict access to opportunity.

Obviously people who lose work mostly find other work, or - again - we can't explain how we got from the pre-WWII agrarian/resource economy to the one we have today. Since employees apparently are currently in high demand, the prospects of people losing work are probably favourable right now. I don't deprecate the difficulty and stress of transitions, but I do emphasize how much of it has happened without many of those affected being singled out for special compassionate treatment.

The one area where we seem to agree is we both agree on the amazing resourcefulness of the individual when they are forced to grift and graft to put food on the table.

"Root, hog, or die!" is a valid course of action.

James Watt put slaves and wabsters out of work. But he made possible mechanics and electricians.

 

[YZT580]

West Coast Reduction could probably have made a good dollar from selling its property but it chose to hang in. J. S. McMillan seems to have moved.


I disagree there. The original Navvies, competing with other Navvies, had the opportunity to put money in their jeans. Some of them made bank and created their own little piles of wealth.
Today a woman with a backhoe has the same opportunity.
But fewer backhoes and fewer operators are needed so fewer opportunities to convert sweat equity into capital. And the step from entry level to wealthy becomes greater. The ladder disappears.


Agree there. Which I believe to be a major problem and one that is not solved by creating credentialled training establishments which restrict access to opportunity.


The one area where we seem to agree is we both agree on the amazing resourcefulness of the individual when they are forced to grift and graft to put food on the table.

"Root, hog, or die!" is a valid course of action.

James Watt put slaves and wabsters out of work. But he made possible mechanics and electricians.

perhaps the problem is not automation but immigration. If automation enters an area there is only a need for a few workers to supervise plus those who supply those workers with essentials, the home builders, teachers and all other support groups. Support I would suggest whose numbers are predicated on the number of working positions. So why are we flooding Vancouver for example with thousands of new bodies and artificially increasing demand for a product (housing) that should be decreasing with the input of automation. Perhaps that seems a little confusing but it seems a backwards approach to me

 

[Kirkhill]

perhaps the problem is not automation but immigration. If automation enters an area there is only a need for a few workers to supervise plus those who supply those workers with essentials, the home builders, teachers and all other support groups. Support I would suggest whose numbers are predicated on the number of working positions. So why are we flooding Vancouver for example with thousands of new bodies and artificially increasing demand for a product (housing) that should be decreasing with the input of automation. Perhaps that seems a little confusing but it seems a backwards approach to me

Because the government needs taxpayers?

 

[Halifax Tar]

Something's happened.

I really don't think it's PPs image. I think it's probably people just generally thinking that JT and crew are junk and we need a change. You know what they say Canadians don't vote governments in, they vote them out.

The life span of a minority Con Gov could be interesting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686435316909981696

 

[dimsum]

So why are we flooding Vancouver for example with thousands of new bodies and artificially increasing demand for a product (housing) that should be decreasing with the input of automation.

That implies that the govt is specifically bringing people into Toronto, Vancouver, etc. rather than the immigrants wanting to go there because they are large(r) cities with larger groups of that ethnicity, and therefore easier access to things from where they came from.

If I was non-western European, didn't have a great grasp of English/French (or had family with the same issues), and I had the choice of going to Toronto or Flin Flon, MB, the choice is pretty much a no-brainer. It's hard enough to emigrate to another country, especially one that's far away, but then trying to get access to your ethnic food ingredients or someone your elderly parents can speak to outside of the family?

 

[suffolkowner]

Something's happened.

I really don't think it's PPs image. I think it's probably people just generally thinking that JT and crew are junk and we need a change. You know what they say Canadians don't vote governments in, they vote them out.

The life span of a minority Con Gov could be interesting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686435316909981696

Yeah the last two weeks to a month its gone from the CPC/PP had peaked to a real run on Liberal support

 

[Remius]

Something's happened.

I really don't think it's PPs image. I think it's probably people just generally thinking that JT and crew are junk and we need a change. You know what they say Canadians don't vote governments in, they vote them out.

The life span of a minority Con Gov could be interesting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686435316909981696

You can literally look at 338 and pinpoint each up and down on certain things. This is two weeks into his image makeover after poor performance in the by elections. His focus on stupid things like fireworks on a bus and David Johnson’s ski chalet etc instead of actual things that matter like the economy, jobs and housing. He’s switched tact, changed his look and presentation.

It’s exactly that. If he switches back to attack dog mode he’ll drop again. We’ll see what next week brings.

The Sun largely agrees with me.

EDITORIAL: Poilievre should step up his game

We urge Poilievre to rise to the occasion and not take the bait. He’s auditioning to be prime minister.

torontosun.com

 

[Halifax Tar]

You can literally look at 338 and pinpoint each up and down on certain things. This is two weeks into his image makeover after poor performance in the by elections. His focus on stupid things like fireworks on a bus and David Johnson’s ski chalet etc instead of actual things that matter like the economy, jobs and housing. He’s switched tact, changed his look and presentation.

It’s exactly that. If he switches back to attack dog mode he’ll drop again. We’ll see what next week brings.

The Sun largely agrees with me.

EDITORIAL: Poilievre should step up his game

We urge Poilievre to rise to the occasion and not take the bait. He’s auditioning to be prime minister.

torontosun.com

If you say so.

 

[Remius]

If you say so.

All indicators seem to say so. It isn’t just me.

Polls for months have shown that 80% want change but that half of that didn’t really care much for what the alternatives were offering.

That 80% discontent hasn’t changed. However it seems that the half that didn’t like what was on offer is warming up to the alternative that until recently wasn’t really resonating.

For the record. I welcome the change in tone, I hope it continues and gets backed with real policy solutions.

 

[RangerRay]

It’s like they’re finally understanding that if you offer people Idiot #2 to replace Idiot #1, they will probably stick with Idiot #1. The Tories are finally figuring out they have to appeal to normies, not Uncle Fred in Saskatchewan who gets his news from eaglepatriotnews.ru.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The comments are pretty funny

Canadians get creative about Trudeau's bandaged forehead

Justin Trudeau’s forehead has been front and centre on social media.

torontosun.com

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Crime up since trudeau took power. Well, we knew that already, but a good editorial nonetheless.

CRIME & LIBERALS: Law breaking is up since Trudeau came to power

Lorne Gunter explains how Canada has seen a rise in violent crime since Justin Trudeau’s Liberals came to power in 2015.

torontosun.com

 

[Halifax Tar]

All indicators seem to say so. It isn’t just me.

Polls for months have shown that 80% want change but that half of that didn’t really care much for what the alternatives were offering.

That 80% discontent hasn’t changed. However it seems that the half that didn’t like what was on offer is warming up to the alternative that until recently wasn’t really resonating.

For the record. I welcome the change in tone, I hope it continues and gets backed with real policy solutions.

If you say so.

Look pal, you have nothing to prove to me. If that's what you think good on you.