Tories eye early December election

[GAP]

Tories eye early December election
GLORIA GALLOWAY AND BRIAN LAGHI  From Friday's Globe and Mail October 5, 2007 at 12:08 AM EDT
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OTTAWA — Federal Conservative organizers say they have been told that their election campaign offices should be ready for opening on Oct. 20 and that candidates should begin canvassing constituents immediately.

They also say campaign chairman Doug Finley told candidates in a conference call yesterday that there will be four or five items in the Throne Speech that will be absolutely unacceptable to the other parties. And they say Mr. Finley told them the Conservative brass is currently trying to decide between three different election dates.

The call to mobilize ground forces comes on the day after Prime Minister Stephen Harper warned the opposition parties that things will be different in the new session of Parliament and that the defeat of any key government bill could plunge the country into an election.

The Throne Speech, which is scheduled for Oct. 16, is itself a confidence matter and a vote against it would bring down the Conservative minority.
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[karl28]

  Here is hoping that we can get a Conservative majority . I know who I will be voting for .

 

[The_Falcon]

Is it me, or is anyone else getting sick of the MSM's chicken little sky is failing (ie government may fall, government preparing for insert season election) dire warning that keep popping up every 4-5 months.  As well I find it rather odd (not really though) that its always the Conservatives gearing up for an election battle (at least according to the MSM, cause you know they aren't biased at all :).

 

[a_majoor]

Is it me, or is anyone else getting sick of the MSM's chicken little sky is failing (ie government may fall, government preparing for insert season election) dire warning that keep popping up every 4-5 months.  As well I find it rather odd (not really though) that its always the Conservatives gearing up for an election battle (at least according to the MSM, cause you know they aren't biased at all :).

Since the opposition is constantly threatening to bring down the government, it should be no surprise that the MSM carries these stories. You are quite correct about the bias part; one can hardly imagine the leader of an opposition party with the means to bring down the government not preparing the "troops" prior to bringing on a non confidence vote. If they were going to cast an election triggering non confidence vote without prior preparation, then they would be incredibly arrogant and stupid (oh, wait a minute....)

Given the internal divisions and weak financial positions of the opposition parties (thanks Jean Chretien!), I have a sneaking suspicion that a wave of the "flu" will sweep the opposition benches, allowing a symbolic "no" vote to be cast, without toppling the government. I won't bet large amounts of money on this, though.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Is it me, or is anyone else getting sick of the MSM's chicken little sky is failing (ie government may fall, government preparing for insert season election) dire warning that keep popping up every 4-5 months.

Why go for the steak when you can focus on the sizzle?  :

As well I find it rather odd (not really though) that its always the Conservatives gearing up for an election battle (at least according to the MSM, cause you know they aren't biased at all :).

a_majoor is bang on.....

October 4, Montreal Gazette:  "Liberals moved to close ranks around their embattled leader Wednesday as Stephane Dion announced he was calling upon Grit veterans to beef up his inner circle and his campaign team."

Canadian Press, via CTV.ca, 2 Oct 07:  "Duceppe, who has led the Bloc for a decade, says he is preparing for a possible fall election just like the other federal party leaders."

Toronto Star, 25 Sept 07:  "The New Democrats seem more bullish on an election. They are readying campaign buses for federal NDP Leader Jack Layton's tour and will rely on expertise gained from Ontario NDP Leader Howard Hampton's tour. Ian Capstick, a spokesperson for Layton, said yesterday that the NDP campaign team will be made up of most of the same people who did the 2004 and 2006 campaigns."

As for the Tories getting the attention, it reminds me of a Gary Larson "Far Side" cartoon I can't find anymore:  you see the farmer with an ax in hand, asking himself, "Hmm, which will it be?" while looking at about a dozen chickens in the yard.....  with only one with a neck about a foot longer above the crowd.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I don’t think any of the opposition parties, not even the NDP, really wants an election now. The NDP might make some gains but, equally, if a Conservative minority appears likely, many Canadians might shift away from the NDP and towards the Greens – counting on die-hard Liberal voters to hold Harper to a minority.

I think a Throne Speech – which includes a commitment to stay the course in Afghanistan, beyond 2009, will pass because, as a_majoor notes, enough BQ and Liberal members will stay away to allow their parties to vote “No,” while still allowing the Throne Speech, per se, to be approved.

The Conservatives can, likely, govern until 19 Oct 09 – when, according to law (Bill C-16, signed into law on 3 May 07) , the next election is scheduled. They can do so even if they propose to parliament to extend the Afghanistan mission because the opposition will use the same,’vote against in small numbers’ tactic to avoid an election. But, by Oct 09 George W. Bush, the main bête noir of Canadian electoral politics will be gone – there will be no one left to hate: really, deeply, viscerally hate.

Between now and early fall 09 the Conservatives can/should be able to:

1. Manage the economy well enough, – so long as the US economy does not slide into recession;
2. Lower taxes;
3. Maintain if not increase social programme spending;
4. Reformat the mission in Afghanistan to give increased emphasis to development while still staying in place, thereby pacifying Canadians and demonstrating leadership on the world’s stage;
5. Do something (while wearing a baby-blue-beret) in Africa;
6. Appear to get tough on crime;
7. Appear to get tough on Arctic sovereignty – while poking the Americans with a long stick;
8. Appear to get tough on human rights with China – all the while strengthening trade ties;
9. Appear to get tough on American gun running into Canada; and
10. Do something popular about our Stalinist health care system – popular means anything that makes it appear that a second or third tier is our of reach, except in Québec.

 

[a_majoor]

One view of the opposition's preparations:

 

[a_majoor]

More on possible outcomes:

http://stevejanke.com/archives/242777.php

It takes leadership to steer towards a tipping point
Friday, October 05, 2007 at 01:43 PM Comments: 3

Stephen Harper has delivered an ultimatum. If the opposition parties pass the Throne Speech, he will treat votes on bills that explicitly enact Throne Speech promises to be confidence votes.

Is he setting a trap for Stephane Dion and the Liberals?

Maybe, but I think Stephen Harper is subtler than that. He's a trained economist, so he is familiar with the concept of the tipping point. I think he recognizes that it won't take much to reach a political tipping point, and that in order to resolve a lot of the problems that have plagued this parliament, we need to reach that point.

And so he is pushing us towards it.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is pushing hard on the Opposition, and on Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion in particular:

    The Throne Speech, which is scheduled for Oct. 16, is itself a confidence matter and a vote against it would bring down the Conservative minority.

    But, in a rare National Press Theatre news conference, Mr. Harper said that if the opposition supports the Throne Speech, it must also back the legislation that flows from it - suggesting the government will designate a series of bills as confidence matters.

    Those bills, which one Tory said will come quickly after the House reopens, will include a fall economic update as well as a number of pieces of legislation designed to toughen criminal-justice laws.

It's not just for sake of pushing. This push has a particular goal. Parliament has been in an unstable configuration for some time. It is time, maybe past well time, to shake things up and reach a new configuration. The expectation is that the new configuration will be more stable and productive, and for that we need to reach a tipping point.

The problems in this parliament are many, but one of them is not that it is a minority government. The minority situation exacerbates the problems, and eliminates the option of dealing with them later. Here is the (partial) list:

    * The main opposition party, the Liberals under Stephane Dion, crumbling as factions try to defend or topple Dion.
    * The NDP spending its energies on political posturing as part of a plan to replace the Liberals.
    * Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Quebecois wanting desperately to retire and doing all he can to trigger an election so his final campaign will be against the dying Liberals (and before the Conservatives become too strong).
    * A Liberal-dominated Senate becoming the Opposition-by-proxy as the opposition in the House of Commons flails chaotically.
    * The chaos in the opposition benches (driven by different motives as described) prompting the opposition to try to rewrite every government bill until it becomes unrecognizable (and utterly unacceptable to the government).

So Stephen Harper makes his Throne Speech ultimatum. But it isn't an ultimatum as such. It is an attempt to tip this unstable system. A tipping point refers to a small inout that can cause a massive shift in an unstable configuration. Stephen Harper has been quiet through much of the last few weeks. Meanwhile the system has progressed further to instability. The Liberals continue to unravel. The Quebec by-elections confirmed what the Quebec provincial elections strongly suggested, and that was that sovereigntist parties are no longer a popular choice in Quebec. That led to the Gilles Duceppe's (denied) decision to retire after one more election. The NDP is feeling frisky after the Quebec by-election win, and has positioned itself as uncompromising on issues like Afghanistan and the environment in order to continue to feed off the left-wing of the Liberal carcass (as well as to fend off a possible surge from the Green Party).

And at this point Stephen Harper changes the stakes of each of the opposition parties' established positions.

Now each of the calculations made by the opposition parties needs to be redone, positions might shift, and a new configuration will be established.

The shift might be quite dramatic, and it could end in a vastly different configuration, hence the "tipping point" metaphor.

The tipping point might not require an election. Duceppe might retire, or Dion might be deposed, or Dion's main rival, Michael Ignatieff, might make a move, and Ignatieff might be forced out himself.

The NDP might have wins in the next set of by-elections, putting the NDP is a stronger (and consequently calmer) position in parliament.

Or there might be an election. The Liberals might complete their fall, and Stephane Dion moves off the political stage. Similarly, Quebec political realignment could marginalize the Bloc Quebecois and at the same time give a boost to the NDP. The result would a parliament that would be calmer -- the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois licking their wounds, if not downright moribund, focused on leadership issues but otherwise a minimal force in politics, and the NDP tempering their ideological radicalism with the practicality that comes with power and responsibility.

The problem is that the end point after reaching a tipping point is hard to predict. Another stable configuration could be reached that is entirely different (Liberals in power? It could happen). Or the new configuration might be only minimally better than the one we have now, or even worse as unlikely as that could be (but after a $300 million election, such a result could have further implications).

So it takes guts to purposely drive a system to a tipping point. Stephen Harper is pushing in that direction. Meanwhile Stephane Dion and his Liberals are spinning hard to avoid a reckoning:

    The Liberals appear to be manoeuvring away from Prime Minister Stephen Harper's election trap by vowing not to be held hostage by the government.

    Harper said this week that opposition parties are not in a position to support the Oct. 16 throne speech and then obstruct legislation that flows from that document.

    But Liberal House leader Ralph Goodale said it is "illegitimate" to assert that a government's throne speech "pre-authorizes" ensuing government bills.

Interesting contrast. Leadership versus something that falls far short of leadership.

Having that other thing that pretends to be leadership in the nominal position of heading the opposition is creating a lot of problems. Time to tip things -- the likelihood is that whatever happens at the end will be an improvement.

Tec

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, is a peek at one possible tactic the Liberal may use to avoid an election and, at the same time, continue the back seat driving strategy with which they hope to emasculate and discredit the Conservatives:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071006.liberals06/BNStory/National/home

Dion seeks safe way through Harper's minefield

BRIAN LAGHI and DANIEL LEBLANC AND GLORIA GALLOWAY

From Saturday's Globe and Mail
October 6, 2007 at 12:25 AM EDT

OTTAWA — Stéphane Dion has been advised by party officials not to defeat the Conservative government's Throne Speech and pick his battles with each bill that is subsequently tabled as the Liberals plot a way out of the election trap set by Stephen Harper.

The strategy, supported by Mr. Dion's newly appointed principal secretary Johanne Sénécal, is aimed at helping to buy the Liberal Leader more time while painting the Prime Minister as an autocrat who cannot tolerate checks on his power.

“The idea would be to move case by case,” said an official close to Mr. Dion. “The prevailing view among senior officials is to delay. Literally, we should play them one at a time.”

Mr. Harper said earlier this week that his government intends to increase the number of confidence motions in the House of Commons, a tactic that is being interpreted as an effort to corner the Liberals into either supporting his government agenda or provoking an election. Mr. Dion's challenge is to redefine the fall session away from that Conservative framing of the issue.

Strikingly, Mr. Dion remained silent again on the issue of the Throne Speech Friday despite Liberal MPs publicly asking what the next move from the party should be. Mr. Dion was in his Ottawa office Friday working on strategy with his officials.

Party officials told The Globe and Mail that the Liberals can forestall government confidence motions by extending debate, amending bills or counting on other opposition parties to support the government on certain bills.

One person familiar with the Liberal thinking said the Liberals could even look for ways to defeat the government on issues that play to their strengths.

One example might be Mr. Harper's pledge to restrict the federal government's right to spend federal government money in areas of provincial jurisdiction. The Liberals believe most voters want the government to maintain that right and that it could be an election issue.

The source said that Ms. Sénécal's appointment has helped bring focus to the debate.

“We've gone from sleepwalking to wide-awake.”

Liberals also argued Friday that Mr. Harper's ultimatum makes the Prime Minister look power hungry. Indeed, some actually said they would keep the Tories in the House of Commons just to demonstrate his strong-arm tactics.

Liberal candidate and past leadership candidate Gerard Kennedy said Mr. Harper was contributing to a false state of election panic.

“I don't think that we should take it as anything else but almost adolescent, in-your-face stuff.” He noted that Mr. Harper's fortunes declined last spring after his party opened its election headquarters.

Others wanted to see whether Mr. Harper would follow through with his threat to call a number of confidence votes.

“If, in fact, we don't vote down the Throne Speech then I would say [to Mr. Harper], ‘Okay, show the public what you really mean by pushing everybody to the wall,' ” said former Liberal leadership candidate Martha Hall Findlay.

“He is trying to govern as if he had a majority, and his attitude was absolutely so clear in that press conference: ‘My way or the highway.' ”

Toronto Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett, also a former leadership contender, said her caucus would have to see what is in the Throne Speech before deciding its next move.

“The Prime Minister is just continuing to demonstrate that he is a bully and doesn't understand that the people of Canada elected a minority Parliament so that his policies would be moderated,” Ms. Bennett said.

One Liberal aware of the most recent thinking said “there is no way” that the party wants a fall election.

“You don't go to war … without all of your munitions,” the Liberal said. The party is seen as behind in organizational terms and a poorer than usual financial situation.

The source said that strategists don't want to go to the people at this point and that Mr. Harper's most recent statements don't change the situation.

There are three confidence votes scheduled later this month on the Throne Speech, and another life-or-death vote could be held on the November fiscal update. The government also can quickly start to introduce bills once the House has reconvened, with the opportunity to pronounce second-reading votes on the bills to be issues of confidence.

However, the government can only be defeated if all three opposition parties are united.

If the Liberals want to keep the Parliament alive, they can ask a few MPs to abstain or not show up for votes. The opposition can delay confidence votes on government bills by putting forward long lists of speakers during debates and prevent the government from imposing closure and forcing the bills to a vote.

It is interesting that the proposal to restrict federal spending in areas of (Constitutional) provincial jurisdiction is cited as a possible election trigger rather than Afghanistan. The federal spending issue is popular in Québec and also appeals to the Tories staunch Western base (75+92=167 seats). It will be poorly received in Ontario and is feared in Atlantic Canada and the North (106+32+3=141 seats).

My, personal, sense is that Harper needs to do three things, simultaneously:

1. Maintain his solid Western base (60± sure seats);

2. Build on his recent successes in Québec (target of 25+ seats); and

3. Quieten Ontario (remember Bill Davis and “bland works”) (target of 50+ seats).

If he can do that, and hold his party to only a few losses in Atlantic Canada, then he has a razor thin majority.

 

[observor 69]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act :
http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/264261

PM sees an opportunity for easy majority win.

TheStar.com - PM sees an opportunity for easy majority win

October 06, 2007
James Travers

OTTAWA


In opposition, Stephen Harper was Preston Manning. In power, he's Jean Chrétien.

Of the two comparisons, the second is the greater compliment. That shouldn't belittle Manning's underappreciated contribution. As well as preaching for the same democratic reforms Harper now finds inconvenient, Manning pressed hard for economic discipline and the tough love that later became the Liberal sovereignty strategy.

But these are partisan times and no recent prime minister is more admired than Chrétien for a singular fixation on winning.

Central to capital folklore is that as he called the election, Chrétien predicted to then governor general Adrienne Clarkson the size of his majority down to the last seat. Even more remarkable than his prescience was the former prime minister's skill in playing a weak hand.

Well-liked as a politician but not highly regarded as a minister, Chrétien worked ruthlessly to wrest the leadership from John Turner and then as "yesterday's man" laid a fearsome 1993 licking on the remains of Brian Mulroney's Tories.

Even if the parallels are imperfect – Chrétien left details to ministers and most policies to others while Harper is controlling and a wonk – the similarities are unmistakeable as the PM pushes Parliament towards the precipice. He sees in Stéphane Dion what Chrétien saw in Stockwell Day: an opportunity for an easy victory and, yes, a majority.

Forget the Prime Minister's second reassurance in two weeks that the next government will almost certainly be another minority. Liberals aren't just in deep doo-doo in Quebec, in once-secure Ontario they must now avoid the meltdown that only the determined 11th hour work of David Herle's war room prevented 19 months ago.

Rising NDP fortunes and the fellow traveller of vote splitting puts seats saved then in more jeopardy now, while stronger and richer Conservatives are an increasing danger where the 416 area code slides into the 905.

Less apparent and equally important is how much Harper stands to gain from so little. Power isn't making Conservatives significantly more popular. As well, the party is out of sync with public opinion on two issues likely to become ballot-box questions – Afghanistan and the environment. The litter of broken Harper promises includes income trusts, equalization payments, iron-clad accountability, appointing a pal to the Senate and, of course, treating Parliament with respect.

Arguably, the last reversal best reflects how much Harper is now like Chrétien and how little he fears Dion. Chrétien treated his backbenchers and cabinet ministers as focus groups. Harper is extending that dismissive pattern to all of Parliament by essentially discounting the results of the last election while preparing the ground for the next.

In theory, this week's demand that all MPs rubber stamp his agenda should make Conservatives vulnerable by reinforcing the impression that the Prime Minister is a one-man band and a bully. In practice, the ruling party is confident the Liberal leader won't find the messages or words needed for an effective counterattack.

That and Harper's higher leadership ratings are persuasive indicators that a campaign will shake the stasis out of public opinion to considerable Conservative advantage. As self-evident to Harper as it would have been to Chrétien, the softness of Liberal support makes the coming election less about winning and losing and more about seizing a promising moment for a majority.

 

[GAP]

PM takes aim at Liberal leader
By LICIA CORBELLA
Article Link

With three turkey dinners under his belt and a positive new countrywide poll that has him seven points higher than the Liberals, Prime Minister Stephen Harper says he's not prepared to play chicken with Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, when it comes to a possible election.

Instead, he plans on driving his "reasonable" agenda straight down the road of his mandate and it will be up to Dion to take it or leave it.

"We're all waiting with bated breath to hear what Mr. Dion is going to say today," said a smiling Harper, prior to Dion coming out of one week of hiding to respond to Harper's "fish or cut bait" ultimatum with reference to the government's Oct. 16 throne speech.

Harper didn't have to wait long. Shortly after the PM's exclusive interview with Sun Media, Dion emerged after a minor shadow cabinet shuffle to, not surprisingly, tell awaiting Ottawa media he doesn't want a fall election either, but he will be ready to vote against the throne speech if it is not "reasonable."

"We have not been obstructionist and we do not intend to be," Dion told reporters. "We will assess very carefully how well (the speech) addresses what Canada needs."

Harper reiterated his position again on a swing through Calgary, where he celebrated Thanksgiving with his extended family before meeting with business leaders at the Petroleum Club in this city's downtown.

Last week and again yesterday, Harper vowed that he will consider not only the throne speech as a matter of confidence that could bring down the government, but any major plank of legislation flowing from it, which could lead to the government falling at any time.

"I still think the best thing for the government and this country in the long term is to keep governing and to keep getting done the things we promised Canadians we would do in the last election, but if Mr. Dion forces an election we will be ready for him."

Harper said the speech will lay out his government's intentions -- including broad-based tax cuts, key economic mechanisms to protect Canada's manufacturing, tourism and forestry sectors hit hard by a soaring Canadian loonie and an eased wording of the government's position on Afghanistan, which just might give Dion enough wiggle room to stay away from forcing an election.
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