The Hill magazine reports that Lockheed Martin is lobbying the US Air Force to buy an additional 120 C-130J aircraft, under an offered multi-year contract worth more than $6 billion.
The USAF has about 20% of its C-130E/H Hercules fleet on the ground or under significant flight restrictions right now, and has been pleading to be able to retire them instead of spending time and maintenance dollars on aircraft that will probably never fly again. This percentage will continue to grow as the hours continue to pile up. Meanwhile, the C-130Js are performing well in Iraq and Afghanistan, where their performance suffers much less from the heat and high altitude than C-130E/H versions. US Special Forces are also looking to renew their aging C-130 specialty aircraft and gunship fleet, but they worry that platforms like the C-130 won't be survivable 15 years from now.
Both groups have made noises lately about a competition that could involve Airbus' recently-delayed A400M, which breaks through the 20-ton cargo barrier that has stymied several US armored vehicle programs. Those rumblings, and the delay, may have handed Lockheed both motive and opportunity to make its proposal….
Lockheed's offer reportedly involves 120 C-130J aircraft in different configurations between 2011-2015, at a production rate of 24 airplanes a year. This would double its existing production rate, and extend the line's guaranteed operating period from 2010-2015.
Costs per C-130J-30 would reportedly drop from $60-70 million in current FY08 dollars to $50.4 million in constant FY08 dollars; the KC-130J tanker variant would be $51.8 million, and a shortened version (which was disqualified from the Joint Cargo Aircraft competition) would be $47.8 million. In real dollars with inflation et. al. factored in, this could rise to about $60-65 million per plane between 2011-2015...
DID Analysis: Understanding the Offer's Context
With Airbus A400M production unlikely to begin at any serious level before 2011, and 190 orders already on the books that must be filled, Lockheed's 2011-2015 deal offers the US military immediate relief for its aging force, before the competition can realistically deliver an alternative.
The important thing, from Lockheed Martin's perspective, is to raise the size of the USA's C-130J fleet high enough that competitive alternatives become too expensive due to the scale of duplication required for training, logistics, maintenance, et. al. An additional 120 aircraft would almost certainly achieve this goal, locking in a much larger volume of long-term orders, while keeping the production line open long past 2015 for other international customers...
