Life After Arafat

[Brad Sallows]

Pan-Arabism is a pretty lofty dream for a culture which tends to strengthen its loyalties the further down the hierarchy you go.

 

[winchable]

Considering that our notion of the Westphalian state came into being in 1648 (and its application to the African and Asian continents much later) I'd hardly blame "lines in a sandbox" for war and hatred in any areas.

Well I would disagree, I did say Foster, not to blame.

You cannot export government, that's what most middle eastern countries are working on right now. Exported British, French government etc. Government (My god this is going to sound really bad) has to come from the people who live in that area.
If tribalism is what naturally comes out of Arabia, if it's empires than so be it, whatever is imposed on them is only going to Foster and intensify already existing conflicts.

People are going to kill each other and die whatever jar you put them in, I suppose it really is a matter of what you would rather die for.
A flag or your tribe? Or..is there a difference.
Hmm..

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Quote from Che,
Personally I think it will take a leader the likes of which the middle-east has never seen to challenge the status quo amongst Jews and Muslims in the contested state and actually work towards building a real state instead of offering empty promises and insincere gestures.
Jew, Muslim, Christian, Coptic, Fetish priest. It would be nice to see a leader who would get past the labels and down to humanity instead of publicy doing one thing and privately maintaining the status quo.

Sorry to be the severe pessimist here, but just how long would this guys life expectancy be?  All the little "tinpot" group leaders would see him/her as a grave threat to their little chunk of this insanity.

 

[winchable]

Sorry to be the severe pessimist here, but just how long would this guys life expectancy be?  All the little "tinpot" group leaders would see him/her as a grave threat to their little chunk of this insanity.

Oh you're not being pessimistic you're being pragmatic Bruce.
You're absolutely right.
I should say the likes of which the world has never seen.

A leader (with all afformentioned qualities of humanity, justice, pragmatic idealist) who would be able to convince the people of Arabia that they're living under a series of corrupted regimes, not to sell themselves out to anyone and of course probably die at a young age.
I'd say 30, but assuming his (Pardon me, or her) message could be heard enough to get people going "hey what the fuck" I doubt he/she would care much for their life beyond its use.

Wow I'm sick today, I'm sorry folks.
I've had to hold all this idealism inside for the past year to maintain excellent relations amongst the senior members, and it's gotta come out eventually.

 

[Acorn]

Arafat's demise will result in short-term trouble. On the plus side the power struggle inside the Palestinian areas will likely result in a reduction in attacks on Israel. If Arafat cops it now, the timing could not be more perfect for Sharon:

1. He didn't order Arafat killed, so no poo sticks to his fur there.

2. The resulting confusion and power struggle in the PA will reduce the threat to Israel, and may mitigate the potential claims of "victory" by HAMAS et.al. from the Gaza withdrawal.

However, it will overall be messy for a while.

Acorn

 

[Ty]

It's Israelis and Palestinians that will never get along, ever.
The nation state has done more to destroy peace in the middle east and africa than any other advent brought to the "orient"
So, idealistically I picture a unified Arabia, which is impossible, the idea of nationalism is too far ingrained into the minds of the Arab peoples.

With present mentalities, neither side will ever see eye to eye.   A two-nation state is, superficially, the solution to a true peace.   However, the peace would be incredibly fragile and prone to extremists' whim. For example, in the recent past, any brief reprive of violence was shattered when civilians are targeted by a suicide bombing or a gun-man unleashing mayhem inside a mosque.   In my opinion, the only true way to guarantee any sort of peace would be to employ an international nation-building and peacekeeping team (there, I said it, peacekeeping!)   Unfortunately, this suggestion has been shot down in the UN Security Council by the US- a permanent member.   As a gauge of success, we can look to the Golan Heights and the operations that seem to have kept the Syrians and Israelis from resuming hostilities along that piece of border- the same not being true for the Lebanese border where Hisballa and IDF forces clashed for some   time.

The reason I would choose an international presence rather than entrusting the task to the PA or IDF is that neither has prooven very effective at constabulary roles- even though the former was founded on that mandate.   The PA is ripe with corruption and turns a blind eye to known criminals, while the IDF is operating under an auspice of almost state-sanctioned collective punishment- each forces consequent actions trigger retrobution from the other which, in turn, perpetuates the cycle of violence.   The eye-for-an-eye mentality has caused tens of thousands of civilians lives in Palestine/Israel as well as in neighbouring countries.

My point (really, there is one) is that the two sides are never, ever going to agree to stop killing each other in their current state- that task must be taken over by the next generation of leaders that agree that the past is the past. Period.   A fact that both side's current ruling parties can't seem to put behind them.  

As a bit of an aside, the last deal tabled had some serious shortcomings that needed to seriousally be addressed, IMHO.   Not only the status of Jerusalem, but the right of return (or compensation), and the control of fresh water and arable lands.   A great goal would be to work with the solution proposed by the UN half a century ago for a two-nation state.

 

[Infanteer]

In my opinion, the only true way to guarantee any sort of peace would be to employ an international nation-building and peacekeeping team (there, I said it, peacekeeping!)  Unfortunately, this suggestion has been shot down in the UN Security Council by the US- a permanent member.  As a gauge of success, we can look to the Golan Heights and the operations that seem to have kept the Syrians and Israelis from resuming hostilities along that piece of border- the same not being true for the Lebanese border where Hisballa and IDF forces clashed for some  time.

The trouble with this idea is that you can only put Peacekeeping forces between two states that want to quit fighting.  Throwing poor guys in between extremists (from both sides) who seem all too happy to immolate themselves for their convictions is just going to get good soldiers killed.  If we were to follow through with this plan, we'd be completely ignoring what was learned in the Balkans.

 

[winchable]

My point (really, there is one) is that the two sides are never, ever going to agree to stop killing each other in their current state- that task must be taken over by the next generation of leaders that agree that the past is the past. Period.  A fact that both side's current ruling parties can't seem to put behind them

Dinosaurs rule the earth once again.
Being an active member of both the Palestinian students society (though not palestinian addmitingly) and the Jewish stuents Club (and no, not Jewish either) I work side by side with the generation "in waiting" and I can say there is a bright light that both of these generations are bringing to the table.
Though there is certainly some hostility it's nothing that some forward thinking younger generations of both sides could work out.

 

[Infanteer]

Peace may be a long-term reality, although I firmly believe that the will to violence is a part of human nature.  Who knows, maybe one day the Palestinians and the Jews will team up to fight Cypriots?

However, the geopolitical sensitivity of the region and the nature of this conflict demand short-term solutions; we cannot sit on our hands in the hope that a long-term establishment of mutual respect and admiration arises between these two societies.  This is why I think two-states is a step in the right direction in that it attempts to provide short-term stability to the region so we can work on the long-term peace without being occupied with checkpoints, bulldozers, and suicide bombings.

 

[pappy]

Nothing but a great big PLUS.  He failed the Plastinians, the last round of peace talks he was handed 90%+ of everything they asked for and yet Arafat refused.
In the words of a great American, Bugs Bunny "What a morron"

The Plastinestians have gotten the dirty end of the stick, The Arabs hated them before Israel was formed, the Arabs told the Plastininas to leave, "we kill all the jews and you can come back"  They would have been better off staying put and excepting the state of Israel, the ones that did stay got to keep thier land and vote. Arafat made it tough for them.  Now its a big goat screw. 

I'm sure there will be some nasty power stuggles for a while in the PA and PLO/HAMAS, but in the end if the common palistinians what peace they find some leader with common sense.  Like it or not Israel is NOT going away.