• Thanks for stopping by. Logging in to a registered account will remove all generic ads. Please reach out with any questions or concerns.

Instability In Pakistan- Merged Thread

E.R. Campbell said:
Musharraf is the best choice – not an especially good choice, perhaps, but the best of a bad lot, all the same.

And therein lie the challenges with the emerging democracies. We wring our hands over corruption, but endorse those who are by our own definition corrupt. We will always have to choose the "first among equals" in these situations. Graft and abuse of authority are a way of life in much of the developing world. The question is how much "corruption" are we willing to accept?
 
Bhutto exhumation okay, Pakistan official says

Sherry Rehman, Pakistan People's Party information secretary, said it was clear that the former Pakistani prime minister suffered bullet wounds to her head, contrary to a government report that she died because she hit her head on a sunroof lever.

Cheema noted that if Rehman -- as she said -- believes she saw bullet wounds that caused Bhutto's death, "We don't mind if the People's Party leadership wants her body to be exhumed and post-mortemed. They are most welcome, but we gave you what the facts are."
 
The unpalatable truth is that as a self-governing entity our "interest" lies first in having order outside our borders. State's where leaders  and followers are in sync with each other are nice to have (unless they are both oriented against us).

Without order then we have to spend money on defending our borders just as Switzerland, Israel and all the Neutrals do.
With order then the threats become more identifiable and easier to counter and defence is less expensive.
With order then trade and money making can continue at least cost.

Imposing values is what gets us, and every other empire, into trouble.
 
Kirkhill said:
The unpalatable truth is that as a self-governing entity our "interest" lies first in having order outside our borders. State's where leaders  and followers are in sync with each other are nice to have (unless they are both oriented against us).
....

Imposing values is what gets us, and every other empire, into trouble.

Bingo!

Democracy - liberal or conservative - is not the natural order of things for at least 80% of the UN's members.

Democracy requires, above all, an understanding of and respect for the rule of law. In even the most liberal (individualistic) democracy each citizen must accept that the most conservative of all values - the collective good or the common wealth - must be protected, above all again, for our individual liberties to have any meaning or value.

The process of enshrining that respect for the rule of law took us, arguably, 2,000 years (250 BCE to circa 1750 CE) to accomplish.

Liberal democracy is the product of only the past 250 years and some countries, Canada for example, are still retarded in that respect - with horribly gerrymandered legislatures (where one Cavendish PEI vote is worth more than 3 Calgary or Toronto votes) and appointed legislative chambers.
 
Kirkhill said:
The unpalatable truth is that as a self-governing entity our "interest" lies first in having order outside our borders. State's where leaders  and followers are in sync with each other are nice to have (unless they are both oriented against us).

Without order then we have to spend money on defending our borders just as Switzerland, Israel and all the Neutrals do.
With order then the threats become more identifiable and easier to counter and defence is less expensive.
With order then trade and money making can continue at least cost.

Imposing values is what gets us, and every other empire, into trouble.

We arent imposing values on anyone. Both Pakistan and India have British style parliamentry systems because they adopted their former colonial masters political system but adapted it to their culture. Greed and corruption are age old problems all over the world- not just a Pakistani problem. We see it in Mexico too. We see it all over the US as well. The problem that Pakistan has is that under the Zia government religious conservativism was intriduced to counter corruption. Unfortuntely that genie is out of the bottle and its very hard to get it back in. The jihadists are using the frontier areas as bases in their war against secular Pakistan. AQ and its Allied Movements have refocused their effort to seize power in Pakistan both as a base o operations but also because of its nuclear arsenal.
 
T6 - we are exporting "western values".

Socialism and Communism are "western values".  Just as much as Capitalism, or Catholicism or Presbyterianism.  Or the cult of the "Big Mac".  We can't help exporting values. 

Some indigenous populations pick up on these exported values and interpret them in their local context and then try to bring them to their more "regressive, reactionary, conservative" countrymen.  That interplay is where the violence occurs. 

Our problem is that we feel tempted to jump into the discussion to support those that hoist our totems as rallying points, even though they may not understand the totems in the same sense that we do.  Consequently we are seen by the conservative elements as "imposing" our values on their society.  And unfortunately, when we do turn up on the winning side of the debate we often find out that the outcome is not what we expected.  Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia, not to mention India and Pakistan are most assuredly not the nations that the Manchester Christians had in mind when they started their reform movements in the 1830s.  Nor, I am sure, did Russia turn out the way Karl Marx intended.  And I think France was less than impressed with the results of their support for Ayatollah Khomenei when he was in exile.

What Edward has been harking on about lo these many centuries  ;D  is that in a civil war the right solution is to contain it and wait for the dust to settle and then make what deals are necessary/possible with the survivors..   We are interested parties in the dispute to the sole extent that the combatants choose to try and harm us or our interests - in which case we need to intervene to that limited extent necessary.  In my opinion blockade and bombardment is a legitimate option but only when the bombardment is focused on depriving the indigenous combatants the means to export their struggle.

On the plus side, I am optimistic that our example of what is possible, ie a secure, prosperous environment where people can pass on their genes with limited effort - an environment that is made possible because ultimately most of us don't care what party you vote for or what church you go to or whether you end up in my paradise in the hereafter - will continue to act as a magnet that will attract others and if not bring them over to our side at least cause them to align with us.
 
And relative to "the plus side" there is this (via both RealClearPolitics and PrairiePundit).

Just to obfuscate further: sometimes it is in our national interests to transform societies - ie if followers and leaders are aligned against us.  In which case back to plan A and separate followers from leaders starting with those followers that are most disenchanted with the leaders.



Lessons From the Surge
By Michael Barone

There are lessons to be learned from the dazzling success of the surge strategy in Iraq.

Lesson one is that just about no mission is impossible for the United States military. A year ago it was widely thought, not just by the new Democratic leaders in Congress but also in many parts of the Pentagon, that containing the violence in Iraq was impossible. Now we have seen it done.

We have seen this before in American history. George Washington's forces seemed on the brink of defeat many times in the agonizing years before Yorktown. Abraham Lincoln's generals seemed so unsuccessful in the Civil War that in August 1864 it was widely believed he would be defeated for re-election. But finally Lincoln found the right generals. Sherman took Atlanta and marched to the sea; Grant pressed forward in Virginia.

Franklin Roosevelt picked the right generals and admirals from the start in World War II, but the first years of the war were filled with errors and mistakes. Even Vietnam is not necessarily a counterexample. As Lewis Sorley argues persuasively in "A Better War: The Unexamined Victories and Final Tragedy of America's Last Years in Vietnam," Gen. Creighton Abrams came up with a winning strategy by 1972. South Vietnam fell three years later when the North Vietnamese army attacked en masse, and Congress refused to allow the aid the U.S. had promised.

George W. Bush, like Lincoln, took his time finding the right generals. But it's clear now that the forward-moving surge strategy devised by Gens. David Petraeus and Raymond Odierno has succeeded where the stand-aside strategy employed by their predecessors failed. American troops are surely the most capable military force in history. They just need to be given the right orders.

Lesson two is that societies can more easily be transformed from the bottom up than from the top down.  Bush's critics are still concentrating on the failure of the central Iraqi government to reach agreement on important issues -- even though the oil revenues are already being distributed to the provinces. We persuaded the Iraqis to elect their parliament from national party lists (reportedly so that it would include more women) rather than to elect them from single-member districts that would have elected community leaders more in touch with local opinion.

But the impetus for change has come from the bottom up, from tribal sheiks in Anbar province who got tired of the violence and oppression of al Qaeda in Iraq, from Shiites and Sunnis who, once confident of the protection of American forces and of the new Iraqi military, decided to quit killing each other. They did not wait for orders from Baghdad or for legislation to be passed with all the i's dotted and t's crossed.

Our own recent history should have taught us that bottom-up transformation, in local laboratories of reform, can often achieve results that seemed impossible to national leaders. At the beginning of the 1990s we seemed to have intractable problems of high crime and welfare dependency. Experts argued that we couldn't hope for improvement. But state and local leaders got to work and showed that change for the better was possible. They included Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson on welfare and New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani on crime control and many others, mostly Republicans but many Democrats as well. The federal government came charging in only after success was achieved in states and cities across the country. By now welfare dependency and crime have fallen by more than half, and they have virtually disappeared as political issues.

Lesson three is that it doesn't pay to bet against America. As Walter Russell Mead explains in his trenchant (and entertaining) "God and Gold: Britain and America and the Making of the Modern World," first Britain and then America have built the most prosperous and creative economies the world has ever seen and have prevailed in every major military conflict (except when they fought each other) since the Glorious Revolution of 1688. Many of those victories have been achieved in conflicts far more grueling than what we have faced in Iraq.

Some of George W. Bush's critics seem to have relished the prospect of American defeat and some refuse to acknowledge the success that has been achieved. But it appears that they have "misunderestimated" him once again, and have "misunderestimated" the competence of the American military and of free peoples working from the bottom up to transform their societies for the better. It's something to be thankful for as the new year begins.

Lesson 1 - a bit of allowable chest-thumping, although the type of thing where I find myself reaching for the nearest chunk of wood to knock

Lesson 3 - as I have said before, never bet against the Bank of England.

Lesson 2 - as noted: to separate leaders from followers start with those most disenchanted with the leadership, and as a corollary start with those that have their own following thereby increasing the rate at which separation occurs.

Lesson 2a - Proportional Representation and Party List sucks.  " We persuaded the Iraqis to elect their parliament from national party lists (reportedly so that it would include more women) rather than to elect them from single-member districts that would have elected community leaders more in touch with local opinion."  The key element in any system of governance is that sense of representation that comes from the direct connection between the followers and their chosen advocates, their leaders.  And if they feel that mortal combat is the way to choose a leader it is going to be very hard to convince them otherwise and have them accept some wimpy outsider preaching kubayahism as their representative.
 
I'm just reading God and Gold, now. Comments will follow when I'm on the ground in Texas for the winter.  :D
 
Texas?

McAllen and South Padre Island?

Galveston?

Have fun.

Cheers,

Wes
 
Wes,

ER is off to the DFW area. In another month we are also off to Texas; in our case we have reservations in an RV Resort in Mission for a month. I like the area; any place where a cashier asked me for proof of my age when I brought a case of beer to the checkout ain't going to be overrun with intellectuals. The free wifi, cable TV and phone calls within North America in the park are a bonus, as I can send and receive draft chapters at the speed of light.

By my reckoning you are down to the last 96 hours of your duty shift. Don't hurt yourself after you turn over the duty book, keys and whatever to the RSM's helper.
 
Not to hjack things too much....

I've been DO since the 24th, ha! TC on 02 Jan, but the poop is the Guard Comd (normally a CPL/LCPL slate) was pulled of duty, and with no one to replace him, I stepped up to the plate until Tuesday morning. So I am both the DO and GC, and I have two Diggers to task as required, currently its Sunday morning, and they are in bed watching TV, and you know what I am doing, I am on here.

Cheers,

Wes
 
Pakistan has turned down foreign assistance investigating the Bhutto assasination. Musharraf would be smart to bring in Scotkand Yard as opposed to the FBI. Possibly fewer complications with a fellow Commonwealth nation.
 
I suspect there is both face and the prospect of being seen to be in bed with infidels involved in the refusla of outside assistance in the investigation. Musharraf must be a very busy man and probably more than a little stressed by the torrent of events that could destroy his country and bring him to an untimely and unpleasant end. It may be, and I don't like myself for suggesting it, that the best course of events would be for the army to suppress everybody until heads have a chance to cool and some perspective applied. Fat chance?
 
Picture of the man who is thought to be the suicide bomber/shooter.

0_64_Bhutto_shooting1.jpg
 
I would suggest they need time to invent a Bhutto successor.

Perhaps her son?  Maybe more can be accomplished with a
male heir to the martyr anyway.

I was once told I was an eternal optimist.
Probably true.
;D
 
OBL is OBL -- he is his own beast -- plain and simple.
+1

It's perfectly natural to throw blame around and invent reasons for why bad things happen.
I take Bhuttos assasination as her validation as a real threat to the Islamist agenda.

Their agenda will have other threats and the cycle will go on.
Nothing ends with Bhuttos death - not even Bhutto.
 
Posted with all the usual disclaimers
Nuclear al-Qaida Comes Closer

http://www.newsmax.com/kessler/Nuclear_al-Qaida_/2007/12/27/60075.html

Washington Insider with Ronald Kessler

Nuclear al-Qaida Comes Closer

Thursday, December 27, 2007 12:52 PM

By: Ronald Kessler  Article Font Size 

Pakistan former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto arrives to address her last public rally in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, Thursday.

The assassination of Pakistan opposition leader Benazir Bhutto brings closer the nightmare of al-Qaida and its affiliates being armed with nuclear weapons, counterterrorism experts tell Newsmax.


“The real danger for us now in the U.S. is that if this continues the way it’s going, the Taliban and al-Qaida could eventually have control of a nuclear arsenal,” says S. Eugene Poteat, a former CIA official. “And you know, we might not even know it. Because the way infiltration works by these people, you never know who they are.



"Al-Qaida or its affiliates could be in the military, they could be in control of a nuclear arsenal, and if they get it, we know one thing for sure is that it will be used one way or the other. They may not use it right away, but that’s the danger,” says Poteat, who is president of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers. “They’ve let it be known publicly what their plans are: their intentions are to kill us.”


“The political dynamic was already unstable in Pakistan and is now even more so,” Lloyd D. Salvetti, a former CIA official who was a staff member of the 9/11 commission, says. “It raises the larger issue of Pakistan, not only in terms of governing, but in terms of its ability as an ally of the U.S. in the war on terror and its position with nuclear arms.”


But Frederick A. Stremmel, a former FBI counterterrorism analyst, says Bhutto’s assassination could cut both ways.

On the one hand, Bhutto’s supporters may weave conspiracy theories pointing to Musharraf as being behind her assassination, he says.

“If one of them gets a voice on this, Musharref may have to go back to martial law and suspending the constitution,” Stremmel says. “This will make things more difficult for Musharraf, especially in the slum areas where she had her support,” Stremmel says.

On the other hand, the development could also “turn against the Sunni extremists — al-Qaida or its affiliates —who probably are responsible for her death,” Stremmel says. “People could get more angry at the extremists. There is a backlash going on against extremists. This may accelerate that backlash.”

Agreeing with that assessment, another well-connected terrorism expert says, “Since Bhutto’s arrival in Pakistan, I’ve felt that her days were numbered and that she didn’t much care because she viewed herself as a martyr. That’s why her arrival in Pakistan was staged so elaborately and was intended to be sabotaged by her opponents — to give her headlines.”

The question, he says, is whether her supporters will “go on a wild rampage against the government or innocent bystanders, or will they seek revenge against al-Qaida, the Taliban, and other Muslim extremists who wished her dead?”

Brad Blakeman, a former Bush White House aide who heads the conservative Freedom’s Watch, says the assassination is a reminder of the threat of terrorism. While terrorism has been receding as an issue in the presidential campaign, the Bhutto assassination could bring it back to the forefront, Blakeman says.

“It shows that we live in a world where terrorism is alive and well and that we have to stand up against it,” Blakeman says. “As President Bush has said many times, we have to protect ourselves not only at home but abroad.”
 
tomahawk6 said:
Picture of the man who is thought to be the suicide bomber/shooter.

0_64_Bhutto_shooting1.jpg

He is clean shaven to meet his 70 virgins, however to me he looks more of middle eastern appearance than of Pakistani appearance, but it could just be the pic.

During our training for Ops in Iraq we were taught that most suicide bombers shave their beards off, wash, appear on edge, and might in fact be profusly sweating, and dressed in a manner to disguise or cover something (more noticable on a hot day), ha! So needless to say when outside the wire, we were observing many suspicious things, including the aforementioned.

He has the gun out in that pic, and those people around him would have been the first to absorb the blast of his bomb.


Regards,

Wes
 
Flip said:
I would suggest they need time to invent a Bhutto successor.

Perhaps her son?  Maybe more can be accomplished with a
male heir to the martyr anyway.

I was once told I was an eternal optimist.
Probably true.
;D


Bhutto's son, husband to succeed her
LINK
NAUDERO, Pakistan - Benazir Bhutto's 19-year old son was chosen Sunday to succeed her as chairman of her opposition party, while her husband will serve as co-chairman, extending Pakistan's most famous political dynasty to another generation.

And Flip wins! ;)
 
Back
Top