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Instability In Pakistan- Merged Thread

I checked the numbers

The table in the Engineering ref suggests that its 3450 kg if just off the ground = like on a truck but 2236 kg if say the truck flipped over before it went off = the charge on the surface of the ground

 
Three and a half tons of TNT in a car?  I need to get my suspension work done at THAT shop!
 
A truck

For comparison - its suggested the Khobar Towers Bomb was approx 5000 pounds = 2300kg..... a pattern here?? http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/khobar.htm

and from Wikipedia  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khobar_Towers_bombing

images from Khobar Towers http://images.google.ca/images?hl=en&q=Khobar+towers+bomb+size&btnG=Search+Images&gbv=2

Crater in front of Bldg = Al Quaida :threat:

 
The New Table with the grd / abov grd figures is attached

Can any city without a truck by pass be considered safe? The trouble is its as scalable threat - eg in 1996 a bomb was set in Manchester UK - 1500 kg - could have caused CITY SIZE casualties which we have not yet experienced

See http://www.manchester.com/features/bombboom/

These refs pretty much lean in the direction of the charge sizes I have written above.

Damn scary - and what do the politicians talk about?? Mine`s bigger than yours?

 
0920081413_M_pakistan_explosion9.jpg
 
I`d say we`ll see a few more of these and then the B52s will go into a certain valley next door to a certain NATO deployed country

 
Fox News link - note what it says about size of the charge http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,425676,00.html

Keep your eyes peeled and post similar links - sort of morbid and interesting at the same time

Interesting in that its open source and leans to such things as key government buildings need standoff distances - no public infrastructure is safe really - if you were a politician do you spend a few billion on a new HQ for this or that dept or do you pay off dead men's widows?
 
http://www.dawn.com/2008/09/21/top1.htm


Suicide bomber blows up 1000kg explosives: At least 40 killed, over 250 injured: Fireball consumes Marriott: Zardari vows to eradicate terrorism


ISLAMABAD, Sept 20: An explosive-laden truck rammed into the front gate of a premier hotel in a high-security zone of Islamabad on Saturday, setting off what police called the most devastating suicide attack in the capital that killed at least 40 people and wounded more than 250.

The attack outside the five-star Marriott Hotel — not far from key government buildings such as the parliament house, the presidency, the prime minister’s house and Pakistan Television headquarters — happened early in the evening shortly after Iftar and hours after President Asif Ali Zardari addressed a joint session of the two houses of parliament where he said Pakistan would not allow the use of its territory for terrorist activities.

In an address to the nation after Saturday midnight, President Asif Ali Zardari vowed to “continue to fight terrorism and extremism”.

“The government will continue to fight terrorism and extremism in all its forms and manifestations and such dastardly acts cannot dent the government’s commitment to fight this menace,” Mr Zardari said.

Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani joined the president in condemning the massive attack.

The president and the prime minister have ordered authorities to conduct an inquiry into the blast and to submit a report within 12 hours.

Information Minister Sherry Rehman told reporters that “such cowardly acts cannot deter the government’s commitment to fight terrorism and extremism”.

There was no immediate report of any foreigner killed in the blast that set off fires, apparently due to gas leakages, in most of the five-floor hotel in Islamabad’s F-5 sector. But police and doctors said some foreigners were among the wounded taken to hospitals.

An Iftar dinner, also attended by President Zardari, was being held at the prime minister’s house at the time of the blast, which shook the whole of Islamabad, causing panic in markets and residential districts.
While rescue workers were busy tracing blast victims inside the burning hotel, some streets near the building looked like graveyards of destroyed cars.

Places as far away as 30kms from the hotel reverberated with the thunder of the explosion. Almost all the 290 rooms of the hotel, which was occupied by both local and foreign guests, were gutted.

Four foreigners — one American, two Saudis and one Filipino — were killed and seven — two Saudis, three Germans and two British nationals — were wounded.

According to earlier unofficial reports, over 40 people were killed mostly from those attending an Iftar party at the hotel’s Marquee Hall located on front side of the building.

The blast caused a huge crater, 20 feet deep and 40 feet wide, at the main entrance of the hotel where, according to some witnesses, a white mini-truck rammed into the steel barrier at 8.05pm.

Interior Secretary Syed Kamal Shah told reporters outside the hotel that it was a “unique blast”.

Rehman Malik, the adviser to the prime minister on interior, said preliminary investigations revealed that some 1000kgs of explosive material had been used in the blast. He put the death toll at 28 and the number of the injured at 50.

Mr Malik revealed the interior ministry had received intelligence that terrorists could strike the Parliament Building on the occasion of presidential address to the joint session of parliament.

“As a result of the report, security was already tightened in the federal capital and additional police and rangers were called into the city to foil designs of the terrorists.”

Outside the hotel, the blast destroyed over 150 cars parked within a radius of 500 feet, uprooted a number of trees and electricity poles, and damaged nearby buildings, including the Frontier House, the Evacuee Trust Building, and those housing the Federal Public Service Commission, Pakistan Television, and government residential buildings.

The timing of the blast was significant as it coincided with an Iftar dinner at the Prime Minister’s House only half a kilometre away.

Some witnesses said the driver of the mini-truck first fired three shots at security guards manning the checkpost of the hotel and then hit the steel barrier. The truck soon turned into a heap of twisted metal, splinters flying in all directions and landing at a good distance from the scene.

A mangled door was found deep inside the crater.

The authorities concerned have been ordered to conduct an inquiry into the bombing and submit a report within 12 hours.

A team comprising police and intelligence officials has been set up to carry out the inquiry.

Sadruddin Hashwani, the owner of the Marriott, told reporters outside the burning building that some 300 people were in the Marquee Hall attending an Iftar function, and about 1,000 guests were staying at the hotel.

Six hundred members of the staff were present in the building when tragedy struck.

Mr Hashwani said almost all the guests had been evacuated. But the Marquee Hall bore the brunt of the strike

Saudi Ambassador Alfawad Al Aseeri rushed to the scene after hearing reports that five employees of the Saudi Arabian Airlines were missing.

Four other employees were admitted to hospital after receiving injuries.

“I hope that the missing crew members are safe or they would have been shifted to some private hospitals for treatment,” he said.

According to some sources, a number of US marines who had put up at the Marriott sustained injuries. They were due to leave for Kabul on Sunday.

A law enforcement official said in all likelihood “personnel of a US security agency” were the attackers’ target.

Some police sources said two explosive-laden vehicles were used in the attack.

They said at first the attackers, riding in a car, opened fire on the security staff at the hotel gate to clear the way and later they blew up their vehicle. Seconds later, the explosive-laden truck hit the security cordon.

A senior police official said 1000kgs of explosive material had been used by the terrorists.

He said the two vehicles carrying explosive travelled through Khyaban-i-Margalla road and then hit the Marriot Hotel avoiding a red zone.

Well-equipped security officers from the US embassy were seen on the spot soon after the explosions. However, they left the scene shortly afterwards.

Those killed included two Frontier Constabulary (FC) officials, six private security guards standing at the hotel gate and a passer-by civilian woman. The injured included two British nationals, three Germans and two Saudis.

A Pims hospital spokesman said 25 dead bodies including two of the FC personnel, six security guards, and two other persons were brought in the hospital. Seven dead bodies were shifted to the Poly Clinic Hospital, two to the CDA hospital.

The hotel building was engulfed in flames, leaving its rooms, café and restaurant in ruined, while several people remained trapped inside their room for several hours due to fire that blocked the emergency exits.

Police said the blast occurred when a vehicle — believed to be a dumper approached the hotel gate and the suicide bomber exploded it when was stopped by the security personnel.

The blast left a 20feet deep and 35 feet in radius crater and destroyed the entire front of the hotel and also shattered down the window pans of nearby buildings. Street light poles and trees were uprooted and dozens of vehicles parked outside the hotel were damaged.The sound of the blast that was heard miles away sent a wave of panic and fear among the resident of the federal capital territory and Rawalpindi. More than 1500 guests, including foreigners were dining in the hotel when the terrorist attack occurred.Ambulances, fire engines and rescue teams rushed to the scene of the blast. The entire area was cordoned off by the security personnel. Later, the troops were called to help the local administration in pulling out the people trapped inside the hotels that was engulfed.

The Marriot Hotel has been popular among the foreigners visiting Islamabad and had been previously targeted by terrorists.

The attack came a few hours after the newly elected president Asif Ali Zardari made his first address to the joint session of the parliaments amid tight security.

The president said in his address that he would not allow Pakistan’s territory to use for terrorist activities.

The Marriot Hotel is located near government buildings, including President House, Parliament building, Prime Minister House, and right opposite to the Sindh House and judicial colony.

Strict security checks are carried out at the hotel gate. The scene of the blast was closed to the security check point.

Abdul Hameed, a police constable who was on duty close to the hotel had recorded his last few worded wireless massage saying as: “I tried to stop a dumper but it exploded at the gate.”

Some women and children staying in the 290 room-hotel went on rooftop of the hotel as the fire erupted. They were shouting for help.

Ikhlaq Ahmed, one of the hotel employees said he was in side the hotel when a small blast occurred, seconds later another explosive laden dumper appeared at the gate and exploded.

No militant group has claimed responsibility of the today’s terrorist attack on the hotel so far.

At least seven of the injured victims, including a female were shifted to Benazir Bhutto hospital Rawalpindi. Shortly after the explosion, emergency was declared in all the government run hospitals in Rawalpindi.

A red-alert was declared in Rawalpindi and night police patrol was also started.

 
Video of the attack. The explosives didnt ignite until the fire reached the explosives.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJnsXzgh5uI&eurl=http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/
 
A USAF Major was one of those killed in the blast.

http://www.armytimes.com/news/2008/09/airforce_americans_killed_pakistan_092208mil/

Airman among dead in Pakistan hotel blast

By Bryan Mitchell - Staff writer
Posted : Monday Sep 22, 2008 18:48:34 EDT
 
At least two U.S. troops died in Sunday’s suicide bombing at a luxury Pakistani hotel popular with foreigners. One of the dead is an Air Force officer; the other has yet to be identified.

The deaths caused confusion as scores of news agencies reported Monday that the two dead were Marines. Some publications reported the bombing was targeting Marines.

Air Force Maj. Rodolfo I. Rodriquez, 34, of El Paso, Texas, died Sept. 20 in Islamabad from injuries sustained in an improvised explosive device attack, according to the Defense Department. Rodriguez served with the 86th Construction and Training Squadron based out of Ramstein Air Base, Germany.

“He was in the area assisting with the training of Pakistani forces,” said Ramstein spokesman Aaron Schoenfeld.

Schoenfeld said at least one other service member died in the attack, but he was unsure what branch of service that person served in. The Corps, however, says no Marines died in the blast.

“We read the same thing first thing today and checked on it. It’s incorrect,” Marine Corps spokesman Capt. Carl Redding said. “There were no Marines killed or injured in connection with the attack in Islamabad this weekend.”

A suicide bomber rammed an explosive-laden vehicle into an upscale Marriott hotel in the capital of Islamabad on Saturday, killing at least 53 and injuring more than 200. The hotel is one of the primary meeting points for foreigners in Pakistan.

In a country accustomed to a rash of suicide bombings in the past several years, the toll of the blast had commentators referring to it as Pakistan’s 9/11.

The blast killed the Czech Ambassador to Pakistan. A handful of news outlets are reporting that up to 30 Marines who allegedly recently stayed in the hotel were the target. The Corps declined to comment on whether Marines stayed on the hotel.

Marine Corps Times counted at least a dozen news agencies from the Middle East, Asia and Europe that had reported on two dead Marines on Monday.

Redding said internal checks by the Corps indicate no Marine Corps security detachment personnel were injured or killed in the bombing. The Corps would not discuss if Marines were recently at the hotel.

“We are not in a position to state whether Marines were staying in or near that site, and we do not discuss living arrangement for Marines assigned to post overseas,” Redding said in an e-mail. “I realize there has been some shoddy reporting, but there is no truth to “two Marines dead” storyline. It is not true.”

Redding said Marine Corps Times was the first outlet to call the Marine Corps to confirm if Marines died in the attack, despite some reports that the Pentagon had confirmed the two dead Marines.

The bombing of the posh American hotel occurred just days after the U.S. military’s top officer, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, visited Pakistan following confirmation from U.S. officials that military units in Afghanistan had targeted militants in Pakistan.

The bombing occurred as State Department officials recover from the brazen attack on the embassy in the capital of Yemen last week. At least 18 people, including an American, were killed when terrorists attacked the embassy on Sept. 17.

 
perhaps this could be the turning point for NATO in the war in Afghanistan? perhaps we'll get some better cooperation from Pakistan now?

or is this just wishful dreaming?
 
2 refs suggest it may have been at least 1000 kg - amazing - maybe Al Quaida BS - but the hole is in the ground and the table linksback to the size of the holes

This reference (and it is from the press says 1000 kg) http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080920/FOREIGN/446624715/1133 as does this one http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=OTU1Nzc0MjU1
 
Advisor to PAK PM refers to RDX & TNT, as well as aluminum as fire catalyst (not to mention Waziristan link) via Dawn (PAK daily):  "Prime Minister’s Adviser on Interior Affairs Rehman Malik has said that Saturday’s blast in Islamabad that claimed 53 lives had links with Waziristan ....  "It is premature to blame any particular group or individual for the blast but all roads lead to Waziristan,” the adviser said.  The video clip showed a six-wheeler dumper truck hitting a steel barrier at the hotel’s main entrance. The attacker, who could not be seen in the film, opened fire on security guards, forcing them to retreat, and then blew himself up causing a small blast which set the truck on fire.  A number of courageous security guards reappear, one of them with a fire extinguisher who tries to extinguish the blaze but fails. He tries repeatedly to douse flames as traffic is seen on the road. There is no sign of movement in the truck and the footage does not show the massive blast which wreaked the havoc.  Questions have been raised as to how such a huge quantity of highly explosive material (RDX and TNT) could be brought into the capital and then taken to the high security area. And there were only five or six private guards at the hotel gate and no arrangement to put out fire.  “It was the first incident in the capital in which terrorists used RDX and TNT explosives. In all previous blasts the terrorists had used potassium. Aluminium powder used in the explosion caused the fire inside the hotel,” Mr Malik said....."

Claim of responsibility....

"Shadowy group claims Islamabad bombing: Al-Arabiya TV" (Agence France-Presse):  "A shadowy group calling itself "Fedayeen of Islam" has claimed responsibility for the deadly bombing of Islamabad's Marriott Hotel in a telephone call to Dubai-based Al-Arabiya television, the channel said on Monday.  Its correspondent in the Pakistani capital said he received a text message on his mobile phone showing a telephone number, which he called and then heard a recording in which the group admitted launching Saturday's attack...."

"Little-Known Islamic Group Claims Pakistan Attack" (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty):  "A little known Islamic group has claimed responsibility for Saturday's suicide attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad which killed 53, Al Arabiya television reported.  The group calling itself Fedayeen Islam (Partisans of Islam) demanded the closure of U.S. and NATO military bases in the region and the U.S. Embassy in Pakistan, and an end to U.S. attacks against tribal areas in Pakistan and Afghanistan.  "If these demands are not met, we are ready to die," said a spokesman for the group on an audio tape aired by Arabiya. The Dubai-based television station said the English-language recording had been played over the phone to its correspondent in the Pakistani capital.  The speaker said the group had targeted 250 U.S. Marines and NATO officials which he said had been at the hotel, and warned of new attacks, urging Muslims to keep away from places frequented by Westerners.  Arabiya said the authenticity of the tape could not be verified, and the group is not known to have claimed other attacks...."

More on links

<slight highjack>

The bombing, combined with this, spooks me more than usual....

"Top Afghan diplomat abducted in Pakistan" (Reuters)

</slight highjack>
 
Or are the claims of responsibility a ruse?  Shared with the usual disclaimer....

Fidayeen-e-Islam is a cover up?
Amir Mir, Daily Jang Group (PAK), 24 Sept 08
Article link - More
LAHORE:
The Pakistani authorities probing the deadly Marriott bombing say the responsibility claim made by an unknown Jihadi group Fidayeen-e-Islam has given credence to their suspicion that the attack was carried out by Harkatul Jehadul Islami led by al-Qaeda-linked Qari Saifullah Akhtar.  On Monday night, a shadowy group, calling itself Fidayeen-e-Islam, had claimed responsibility for the Marriott Hotel attack in a telephone call to Al-Arabiya television. The Dubai-based television's correspondent in Islamabad said he received a text message on his mobile phone showing a telephone number, which he called and then heard a recording in which the group admitted launching the September 20, 2008, attack.  The caller, who spoke in English with South Asian accent, identified himself as Ahmad Shah Abdali and put some conditions to stop attacks against the US interests in Pakistan, including an end to the Pak-US cooperation.  Ahmad Shah Abdali said the attack was carried out by a suicide bomber while 250 US Marines and NATO officials were inside the Marriott Hotel. However, officials probing the September 20 terrorist attack insist that the telephonic claim was meant to confuse the investigators and to divert their attention from the actual culprits who belong to the HUJI ....
 
The two dead US military personnel are USAF Major Rodriquez,34 and Cryptologic Technician 3rd Class Matthew J. O’Bryant, 22.

Reports about Pakistani security are not encouraging. There were 6 checkpoints leading to the Marriot police were asleep at four of them. The terrpr group is no doubt taliban/aq affiliated.
 
It seems that there are 2 more explosive trucks somewhere..

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/print.asp?page=2008\09\24\story_24-9-2008_pg1_10

link http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008\09\24\story_24-9-2008_pg1_10

Daily Times - Site Edition Wednesday, September 24, 2008


Hunt on for two explosives-laden trucks in capital

ISLAMABAD/KARACHI: Police are searching for two explosives-laden trucks in the federal capital, Daily Times learnt on Tuesday.

Sources said intelligence agencies had informed the police that three trucks loaded with explosives had entered the federal capital. One of them targeted the Marriott Hotel on Saturday, while whereabouts of the other two are not known.

The sources said the ‘missing’ trucks were still present in the city, adding that a risk of strikes by them had forced the police to put the security on high alert, increase personnel deployment near important buildings, erect pickets on key roads and begin intensive patrolling across Islamabad.

Vehicles, especially trucks, were being searched by the police at the pickets, the sources said, adding the police were keeping a close watch on hotels and guesthouses.

Meanwhile, the Federal Interior Ministry has warned that banned militant groups could strike in Karachi as well as other cities of the country, Daily Times learnt on Tuesday.

Following this, Additional Home Secretary for Law Enforcement Dr Shafqat Abbasi has written a letter to Sindh Police Inspector General (IG) Sultan Salahuddin Babar Khattak and ordered him to ensure foolproof security measures for foreigners, especially Chinese nationals and their installations, sources said on condition of anonymity.

“We have ordered the Sindh IG to provide foolproof security to all foreign nationals and sensitive government and foreign installations,” Abbasi said. fazal sher/faraz khan
 
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/10/suicide_bomber_targe_1.php

Suicide bomber targets chief of Pakistani Pashtun political party
By Bill RoggioOctober 2, 2008 8:26 AM

A suicide bomber killed five Pakistanis during an assassination attempt on the leader a secular Pashtun political party. The bomber targeted Asfandyar Wali Khan, the chief of the Awami National Party, in his home in the settled district of Charsadda in the turbulent Northwest Frontier Province.

The attack occurred as Khan was hosting celebrations in a guesthouse next to his home for Eid-ul-Fitr, the holiday at the end of Ramadan. The suicide bomber was shot by security guards as he attempted to reach Khan.

"The suicide bomber tried to pass from the security scanner avoiding a physical search. Two security guards grabbed him but he tried to get away," Provincial police chief Malik Naveed told Geo TV. "Then he was shot and as soon as he fell on the ground he blew himself up.”

The Awami National Party is an ethnic Pashtun political party that controls the government Northwest Frontier Province after the February 2008 election. The party is opposed to military action against the Taliban and advocates a peaceful end to the fighting in Pakistan's northwest. The party has backed peace agreements with the Taliban in the past.

The Awami National Party has been the target of multiple Taliban attacks over the past year. The Taliban conducted two major strikes against ANP offices in North Waziristan and Kurram the week before the election, killing and wounding scores of its members.

The Taliban have conducted attacks during religious events and in mosques up and down the Northwest Frontier Province over the past year. The most high-profile attack occurred on Dec. 28, 2007, in Charsadda, when a suicide bomber detonated in a mosque in an attempt to kill former Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao as he conducted Eid prayers. More than 50 were killed and scores were wounded.

Recently, the Taliban bombed a mosque in Dir, killing 25 and wounding more than 50. The Taliban targeted a tribe that was organizing local security to eject the extremists from the region.

 
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/53926.html

New intelligence report says Pakistan is 'on the edge'
By Jonathan S. Landay and John Walcott | McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — A growing al Qaida-backed insurgency, combined with the Pakistani army's reluctance to launch an all-out crackdown, political infighting and energy and food shortages are plunging America's key ally in the war on terror deeper into turmoil and violence, says a soon-to-be completed U.S. intelligence assessment.

A U.S. official who participated in drafting the top secret National Intelligence Estimate said it portrays the situation in Pakistan as "very bad." Another official called the draft "very bleak," and said it describes Pakistan as being "on the edge."

The first official summarized the estimate's conclusions about the state of Pakistan as: "no money, no energy, no government."

Six U.S. officials who helped draft or are aware of the document's findings confirmed them to McClatchy on the condition of anonymity because NIEs are top secret and are restricted to the president, senior officials and members of Congress. An NIE's conclusions reflect the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies.

The NIE on Pakistan, along with others being prepared on Afghanistan and Iraq, will underpin a "strategic assessment" of the situation that Army Gen. David Petraeus, who's about to take command of all U.S. forces in the region, has requested. The aim of the assessment — seven years after the U.S. sent troops into Afghanistan — is to determine whether a U.S. presence in the region can be effective and if so what U.S. strategy should be.

The findings also are intended to support the Bush administration's effort to recommend the resources the next president will need for Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan at a time the economic crisis is straining the Treasury and inflating the federal budget deficit.

The Afghanistan estimate warns that additional American troops are urgently needed there and that Islamic extremists who enjoy safe haven in Pakistan pose a growing threat to the U.S.-backed government of Afghan Prime Minister Hamid Karzai.

The Iraq NIE is more cautious about the prospects for stability there than the Bush administration and either John McCain or Barack Obama have been, and it raises serious questions about whether the U.S. will be able to redeploy a significant number of troops from Iraq to Afghanistan anytime soon.

Together, the three NIEs suggest that without significant and swift progress on all three fronts — which they suggest is uncertain at best — the U.S. could find itself facing a growing threat from al Qaida and other Islamic extremist groups, said one of the officials.

About the only good news in the Pakistan NIE is that it's "relatively sanguine" about the prospects of a Pakistani nuclear weapon, materials or knowledge falling into the hands of terrorists, said one official.

However, the draft NIE paints a grim picture of the situation in the impoverished, nuclear-armed country of 160 million, according to the U.S. officials who spoke to McClatchy.

The estimate says that the Islamist insurgency based in the Federally Administered Tribal Area bordering Afghanistan, the suspected safe haven of Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenants, is intensifying.

However, according to the officials, the draft also finds that the Pakistani military is reluctant to launch an all-out campaign against the Islamists in part because of popular opposition to continuing the cooperation with the U.S. that began under Pervez Musharraf, the U.S.-backed former president, after the 9/11 attacks.

Anti-U.S. and anti-government sentiments have grown recently, stoked by stepped-up cross-border U.S. missile strikes and at least one commando raid on suspected terrorist targets in the FATA that reportedly have resulted in civilian deaths.

The Pakistani military, which has lost hundreds of troops to battles and suicide bombings, is waging offensives against Islamist guerrillas in the Bajaur tribal agency and Swat, a picturesque region of the North West Frontier Province bordering Afghanistan. U.S. officials said insurgent attacks on Pakistani security forces provoked the Pakistani army operations.

The Pakistan general staff also remains concerned about what it considers an ongoing threat to its eastern border from its traditional foe, India, the draft NIE finds, according to the U.S. officials.

For these reasons, they said, the army chief of staff, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, wants the new civilian coalition government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani to provide the military with political cover by blessing a major anti-insurgency crackdown.

However, the ruling coalition, in which President Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of the late prime minister Benazir Bhutto, holds the real authority, has been preoccupied by other matters, according to the draft NIE.

These include efforts to consolidate its power after winning a struggle that prompted its main rival, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, to leave the ruling coalition.

Moreover, widespread anti-U.S. anger has left the coalition deeply divided over whether to unleash a major military assault on the Islamists, the U.S. officials said.

The government is also facing an accelerating economic crisis that includes food and energy shortages, escalating fuel costs, a sinking currency and a massive flight of foreign capital accelerated by the escalating insurgency, the NIE warns.

The Pakistani public is clamoring for relief as the crisis pushes millions more into poverty, giving insurgent groups more opportunities to recruit young Pakistanis.

(Warren P. Strobel and Nancy A. Youssef contributed to this article.)
 
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