General Election: Oct 21, 2019
- Thread starter Haggis
- Start date
AbdullahD said:
Thing with that though is that Bernier *may* sap (in the original siege-engineering sense of the word) strength from the CPC, but that will serve not to bolster the LPC. It may redistribute votes; it will not redistribute seats in any way advantageous to the right. In the event of a CPC minority it offers no additional seats right of the liberals to prior then up- not that I personally think that’s terrible; I’ve made no secret of my opinion of Bernier’s Tantrum party. But for those who have ideological allegiance to the right, there is no real advantage, tactical or strategic, to Bernier gaining support.
“Most likely” COA is the PPC crash and burn and get no seats. “Most dangerous” is Bernier gets his seat and thus lots of airtime, and the CPC lose enough votes to turn enough ridings that it swings either the winner outright, or the majority/minority question for either LPC or CPC.
A vote for the PPC effectively is a vote for the LPC. That might not be an individual’s intent, but that’t The effect. For every shot the PPC fire at a Liberal point target, the CPC are in the beaten zone.
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Brihard said:
I could see them getting some seats in QC. The CPC is still seen as an anglo party, the NDP is in freefall, the BQ has done nothing for sovereignty in a few decades, and some of the rhetoric against immigration is similar to what the CAQ rode into power on.
Got some flyers in the mail from 'Team Trudeau'; not sure that's a great call. For the already devoted, it's a waste, for the undecided it's making the Liberals a cult of personality, and that's where the Adm Norman, SNC and other issues will weigh against not just him, but the entire party. The PMO torpedoing Adm Norman's career and life by withholding evidence under the guise of cabinet confidence was the final straw for me personally, but kind of leaves a trash heap to choose from.
Brad Sallows
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Reading polls is one thing; predicting voter reactions is another.
If the PPC polls high enough for the election model forecasts to show a drop in CPC seats, will some of the NDP voters drop their LPC-as-ABC stance to return to the NDP or move to the Greens? Will enough of those cause the forecasts for NDP seats (or Greens) to rise? Will the LPC seat forecasts then drop enough to re-alarm the ABC voters? Etc, etc.
If the PPC polls high enough for the election model forecasts to show a drop in CPC seats, will some of the NDP voters drop their LPC-as-ABC stance to return to the NDP or move to the Greens? Will enough of those cause the forecasts for NDP seats (or Greens) to rise? Will the LPC seat forecasts then drop enough to re-alarm the ABC voters? Etc, etc.
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The website calculatedpolitics.ca has team Trudeau ending just over majority territory now. Again, just an aggregation of polling data updated weekly.
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AbdullahD said:
I’m in agreement too. Not happy - but we could do worse I suppose.
According to the Toronto Sun today, the alleged familial relationship between the RCMP commissioner and Bill Morneau is a complete fabrication. Not surprised, but nice to have it confirmed.
https://torontosun.com/news/national/fake-news-links-bill-morneau-to-rcmp-commish?fbclid=IwAR0YJFr53sCGGV_vArQ3q77fDTDeqVl5-UcjKBGBeE7upjmDxzwL1fSYn-s
https://torontosun.com/news/national/fake-news-links-bill-morneau-to-rcmp-commish?fbclid=IwAR0YJFr53sCGGV_vArQ3q77fDTDeqVl5-UcjKBGBeE7upjmDxzwL1fSYn-s
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I’m liking the way the media is dealing with all these rumours and allegations. I would like to see the one about Trudeau having drinks with Faith Goldy (and friends) dealt with.
Brad Sallows
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Trudeau in "brownface" might provide some amusement for a while.
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And just for those keeping track, so far it looks like all of the #BoughtMedia /sarcasm are racing each other to cover this rather unflattering coverage of our PM. I haven't looked everywhere of course, but CBC, the Toronto Star, the Globe and Mail, the National Post, CTV, and Global all have it. So there's that.
PMJT has already fallen on his sword admitting it, apologizing, and saying he now sees that it was wrong. Basically exactly what he should have done, and as fast as he could do it. Conveniently for him, Scheer sort of painted himself into a corner on this with his approach to his own candidates’ last indiscretions, and he’s essentially shrugged and said ‘good enough for me’. The NDP will be the ones running hardest with this.
Stupid and embarrassing, with some damage potential. We shall see how it plays out. It certainly won’t play into the CPC’s hand to push too hard, although it will mute some criticism over some of their candidates.
A great night for the reporters though.
Stupid and embarrassing, with some damage potential. We shall see how it plays out. It certainly won’t play into the CPC’s hand to push too hard, although it will mute some criticism over some of their candidates.
A great night for the reporters though.
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It was the top story at CNN for about 20 minutes, lol.
You know, you do not just magically think something is wrong.
Politicians play a part, regardless of their beliefs.. the part he is playing is being contradicted by his actions. Back in 2001 this was wrong and in bad taste... yet he still did it.
I don't buy that he actually cares about what he did other then it might hurt him politically.
Abdullah
P.s yeah, I am biased I know.
Politicians play a part, regardless of their beliefs.. the part he is playing is being contradicted by his actions. Back in 2001 this was wrong and in bad taste... yet he still did it.
I don't buy that he actually cares about what he did other then it might hurt him politically.
Abdullah
P.s yeah, I am biased I know.
FJAG
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You're absolutely right.
This type of behaviour is and was wrong and we all knew it then as well (and as a 29 year-old teacher he sure as hell should have known it) but it's especially egregious when you've been holding yourself out as a paragon of virtue and the most "woke" guy in the legislature.
Sometimes, sorry just doesn't cut it.
:2c:
This type of behaviour is and was wrong and we all knew it then as well (and as a 29 year-old teacher he sure as hell should have known it) but it's especially egregious when you've been holding yourself out as a paragon of virtue and the most "woke" guy in the legislature.
Sometimes, sorry just doesn't cut it.
:2c:
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Video has now emerged from Global News showing Trudeau in blackface laughing it up for the camera. Article states senior Liberal campaign staffer has confirmed it is Trudeau.
https://globalnews.ca/video/5923071/exclusive-video-shows-trudeau-in-blackface-in-third-instance-of-racist-makeup
:facepalm:
https://globalnews.ca/video/5923071/exclusive-video-shows-trudeau-in-blackface-in-third-instance-of-racist-makeup
:facepalm:
For those that think this won't stick.
It won't. But...
It provides some respite to the CPC who have been on the defensive.
Brihard correctly pointed out that Scheer put himself into a corner on this with his own people. If he is smart, he'll focus on his platform and let Singh do the fighting.
It won't. But...
It provides some respite to the CPC who have been on the defensive.
Brihard correctly pointed out that Scheer put himself into a corner on this with his own people. If he is smart, he'll focus on his platform and let Singh do the fighting.
