Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[Kirkhill]

One has to wonder what mischief the Chinese are up to when they are seeking bases in the Azores or in Greenland.

"Lately, China has been actively looking at securing military facilities much closer to the United States, namely in Greenland and the Caribbean, and more frequent exploratory Chinese missions in the Atlantic, near the Azores, are expected in the near future, it has been reported." --- from article cited by T6.

Bearpaw

The Azores make an excellent staging ground for interventions into Africa, particularly West Africa, where China has interests.  Bonus points for it being under America's nose.

 

[tomahawk6]

The PRC 022 catamaran missile boat.The design has been around for awhile but it seems a cheap platform for defending their South China Sea bases.According to the article each vessel has 8 anti-ship missiles which could possibly overwhelm a ship's defenses.

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/12/chinas-type-022-catamaran-missile-boats.html

 

[CougarKing]

To think some 20 or 30 years ago some would have scoffed at the idea of the RMB/ Yuan becoming an IMF reserve currency:

Diplomat

China’s Currency Goes Global

What are the implications of the recent IMF decision on the renminbi?
anthony-fensom
By Anthony Fensom
December 03, 2015

The International Monetary Fund’s decision to include the Chinese currency in its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket from October 2016 has been viewed as a major step forward in Beijing’s international economic aspirations. The first change in the SDR’s currency composition since 1999 could result in the yuan eventually replacing the euro as the main alternative currency to the dollar, with an estimated $1 trillion in global reserves expected to be converted to yuan-denominated assets.

Pacific Money spoke to Roger Bridges, chief global strategist for interest rates and currencies at Nikko Asset Management Australia, on the IMF’s move and its implications for global markets.

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[CougarKing]

I expect that it is in response to the presence of the USN in the South China Sea.

And speaking of the South China Sea, the Philippines continues its case against China over their rival claims at the International Tribunal at Hague:

Diplomat

Philippine FM: China’s 9-Dash Line a ‘Berlin Wall of the Sea’

Before an arbitral tribunal, the Philippines’ foreign secretary slams China’s actions in the South China Sea.
shannon-tiezzi
By Shannon Tiezzi
December 03, 2015

On Monday, the Philippines finished presenting its arguments on the South China Sea issue before an international tribunal in The Hague. The Philippines, as Diplomat readers know, filed an arbitration case against China on the South China Sea issue in 2013, seeking clarity on the legality of China’s nine-dash line, the status of certain features in the South China Sea, and the Philippines’ own maritime rights in the disputed region. Arguments on the merits of the case opened on November 24.

On November 30, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Albert del Rosario wrapped up the Philippine position in his concluding remarks. In the speech, del Rosario praised the power of international law to bring clarity to the disputes. He also accused China of “failing” to uphold international law.


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[CougarKing]

More on the aforementioned Chinese LHD design:

Navy Recognition

First Details on Likely Future Type 75 LHD for PLAN Showed Up on China Government Website

The first details on a future landing helicopter dock (LHD) amphibious assault ship for the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) may have emerged on a government website in China.

The first details on a future landing helicopter dock (LHD) amphibious assault ship for the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) may have emmerged on a government website in China.
Poster showing an LHD design on CSOC (China Shipbuilding & Offshore International Company) stand during AAD 2014 in South Africa

An article published on an official website of the Shanghai communist party mentions a company, Hudong Heavy Machinery Co., LTD (member of CSSC China State Shipbuilding Corporation, the largest shipbuilding group in China) that has been contracted to built "16PC2-6B" diesel engines for a new project of amphibious assault ship. The French Mistral class and Japanese Izumo class are mentioned as well.

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[CougarKing]

The latest incident from the South China Sea:

Asian News Network

Chinese ship rams Philippine boat in disputed shoal; 1 dead
Asia News Network

By Dona Z. Pazzibugan in Manila/Philippine Daily Inquirer | Asia News Network – Mon, Jun 25, 2012

Manila (Philippine Daily Inquirer/ANN) - A Chinese vessel last week rammed a Philippine fishing boat north of the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, killing a Filipino fisherman and leaving four others missing.

Executive Director Benito Ramos of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) yesterday said the Chinese vessel might have intentionally hit the fishing boat AXL John on Wednesday, but the vessel did nothing to help the fishermen.

"They did not [help]," Ramos said. ¿That¿s why it¿s suspicious. If it was accidental, then they should have helped."

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[CougarKing]

China finally dealing with problem of so many unregistered rural migrants living illegally in China's urban areas?

Diplomat

China Wants Hukous for Its 13 Million Unregistered Citizens
Top Chinese leadership demanded an initiative to grant hukous to China’s unofficial citizens.

shannon-tiezzi
By Shannon Tiezzi
December 10, 2015
China declared on Wednesday that it will provide household registration permits (known as a hukou in Chinese) to around 13 million unregistered people. The announcement came in a statement from the Central Leading Group on Comprehensively Deepening Reform, led by Xi Jinping himself.

In China, citizens are issued a hukou based on their place of residence. The permit allows people to access basic social services, from medical insurance to schooling for children. The hukou system is often discussed in the context of rural-to-urban migration, as migrant workers can find it nearly impossible to get a hukou in their new place of residence.

But, as The Diplomat reported earlier this year, around 13 million Chinese lack any form of hukou – largely because they were born in violation of the one-child policy or born out of wedlock. For many families, their children are denied hukous – and thus an education – simply because the family cannot afford to pay the fines associated with breaking the one-child policy. Now that China has scrapped the one-child rule, moving to let all couples have a second child, the discrimination against these unregistered Chinese looks even more out of place.

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[CougarKing]

The threat posed by Chinese SSKs to US CVBGs is reviewed:

Diplomat

The Chinese Submarine Threat

What is the scale of the threat to U.S. supercarriers of China’s growing undersea capabilities?
By Ben Ho Wan Beng
December 10, 2015


There has been extensive debate in recent years about modern Chinese anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) systems rendering the aircraft carriers of the United States Navy (USN) highly vulnerable if Beijing and Washington were to clash in the western Pacific. Particularly ominous is the growing undersea arm of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). According to the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence, China’s attack submarine fleet consists mainly of diesel-electric boats (SSKs) ­– there are 57 of them, as well as five nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs). Of these, the more modern ones include two Shang SSNs, 12 Kilo SSKs, and 12 Yuan SSKs.

Experts often allude to the threat posed by SSKs to the U.S. flattop. This is because the SSK, which is quieter than its nuclear-powered counterpart, is seemingly often able to slip detection by the carrier’s escorts. There have been numerous instances of American carrier groups being surprised by SSKs, friendly or otherwise, during either training exercises or regular deployments. The most famous is arguably the 2006 incident of a Song surfacing at a distance within firing range of the Kitty Hawk battle group. Critics point out that if a relatively inferior sub like the Song was able to penetrate the carrier’s screen, a more capable one such as the Kilo would find the endeavor easier. And in a similar case in October this year, a Chinese boat reportedly “stalked” the Reagan carrier strike group (CSG), setting off alarm bells amongst U.S. defense officials. So the question is to what extent would PLAN submarines threaten U.S. carriers during a conflict? This questions has two parts: 1) assessing how likely it is that a Chinese boat would be able to locate and track the American capital ship, and, 2) if it is able to do so, the extent to which it damage or sink the flattop.

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[quadrapiper]

The threat posed by Chinese SSKs to US CVBGs is reviewed:

Diplomat

If the USN wanted to make a case for increased ASW funding, perhaps have a carrier group come to the BC coast to play with our West Coast subs?

 

[CougarKing]

My post above about the fishing boat ramming incident was actually from 2012. I apologize for my error.

Still, the South China Sea remains an area of contention between China and neighbors.

The Chinese make stern warnings against a civilian aircraft carrying a BBC reporter near the artificial islands controlled by China:

BBC

Navy warns as BBC flies near China islands

1 hour ago

Countries from around the world have insisted that China's expansion into the South China Sea is illegal.

It is building a huge artificial island in the Spratly Island chain, one of the most contested areas in the world.

The islands are difficult to reach, but BBC correspondent Rupert Wingfield-Hayes flew in a small civilian aircraft into China's self-declared security zone, 140 miles off the coast of the Philippines.

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[CougarKing]

Australia's own FONOP was actually occurring simultaneously with the attempt by that BBC reporters' plane to go over Mischief Reef mentioned above:

Diplomat

Did Australia Secretly Conduct Its Own Freedom of Navigation Operation in the South China Sea?

An accidental scoop by a BBC reporter suggests so.
shannon-tiezzi
By Shannon Tiezzi
December 16, 2015

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Though Wingfield-Hayes says his aircraft was warned away repeatedly (and aggressively) by the Chinese navy, he didn’t catch any Chinese response to the Australian broadcast. Details released later provided a specific date for the radio transmission (November 25) and identified the aircraft as an RAAF AP-3C Orion.

As Wingfield-Hayes explains, Australia has never publicly announced its own freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea. Yet here was a radio transmission that suggested Australia was doing just that. In response to the highly-publicized U.S. FONOP near Subi Reef in late October, Australia expressed strong support for the rights of freedom of navigation and overflight, but was coy about whether it would conduct its own such operations, either independently or with the United States.

ABC picked up the story from there, including a clip of the audio recording from Wingfield-Hayes. According to ABC, the Australian government still has not announced that it undertook a freedom of navigation operation in the South China Sea. The Department of Defense confirmed some of the details, however, telling ABC that “a Royal Australian Air Force AP-3C Orion was conducting a routine maritime patrol in the region as part of Operation GATEWAY from 25 November to 4 December.”

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[The Bread Guy]

How seriously does China take tiny islands?  Quite, according to this:

Last year the BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes travelled across the South China Sea in a fishing boat and became the first journalist to observe close-up how China is constructing new islands on coral reefs. A few days ago he returned to the area in a small aircraft - provoking a furious and threatening response from the Chinese Navy.

The scattered atolls, reefs and sand bars known as the Spratly Islands are a very difficult place to get to. Some are controlled by Vietnam, others by the Philippines, one by Taiwan, and then of course there are those controlled by China.

Don't expect an invitation from Beijing. Believe me, I've tried. Only the Philippines will let you visit a tiny 400m-long scrap of land called Pagasa. It's just about big enough to land a small aircraft on.

After months of planning and negotiation, I was sitting in a hotel room in Manila packed and ready to go when the phone rang. It was my colleague Chika.

"Our permission to land on Pagasa has been revoked!" she announced.

My heart sank. What had happened? Had the Philippine government been threatened? China's President Xi Jinping was about to arrive in town. Perhaps Manila didn't want a scene?

In fact it was worse. Somehow Beijing had found out what we were up to.

Next came a call from my editor in London.

"The Chinese embassy has been on the phone. They're warning of problems if the BBC tries to visit what they say is territory illegally occupied by the Philippines in the South China Sea," he said.

I mentally kicked myself. How had they found out? I should have been more careful.

And so for a week I was forced to sit in my hotel room and watch while President Xi came and went. Then, more frantic negotiation… and finally the Philippine government relented. We could go ...

And we ARE talking tiny ...

 

[CougarKing]

So much for all that rhetoric from China's foreign ministry about the need to protect the environment in the areas they claim:

Shanghaiist

WATCH: Chinese fishermen ransack coral reefs in the South China Sea for all their worth

The Chinese government is continuing full steam ahead with its mission to seize control of the hotly contested South China Sea, leaving in its wake some completely ravaged underwater environments.

Less than a mile away from a Filipino military base, Chinese poachers are plundering reefs for all the coral and clams they can carry, turning once vibrant coral reefs into deserts under the protection of China's navy. The BBC captured the environmental looters on camera for us:

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[CougarKing]

More food for thought on how the PLA is adapting to modern warfare:

Diplomat

China and the 'Three Warfares'

Beijing is increasingly exploiting information operations for influence in areas of strategic competition.
By Michael Raska
December 18, 2015

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Operationalizing the ‘Three Warfares’

At the operational level, the “Three Warfares” became the responsibility for the PLA’s General Political Department’s Liaison Department (GPD/LD), which conducts diverse political, financial, military, and intelligence operations. According to the Project2049 Institute, GPD/LD consists of four bureaus: (1) a liaison bureau responsible for clandestine Taiwan-focused operations; (2) an investigation and research bureau responsible for international security analysis and friendly contact; (3) an external propaganda bureau responsible for disintegration operations, including psychological operations, development of propaganda themes, and legal analysis; and (4) a border defense bureau responsible for managing border negotiations and agreements. The Ministry of National Defense of the PRC provides more general terms, emphasizing “information weaponization and military social media strategy.”

In practice, the GPD/LD is also linked with the PLA General Staff Department (GSD) 2nd Department-led intelligence network. One of its core activities is identifying select foreign political, business, and military elites and organizations abroad relevant to China’s interests or potential “friendly contacts.” The GPD/LD investigation and research bureau then analyses their position toward China, career trajectories, motivations, political orientations, factional affiliations, and competencies.


The resulting “cognitive maps” guide the direction and character of tailored influence operations, including conversion, exploitation, or subversion. Meanwhile, the GPD’s Propaganda Department broadcasts sustained internal and external strategic perception management campaigns through mass media and cyberspace channels to promote specific themes favorable for China’s image abroad – political stability, peace, ethnic harmony, and economic prosperity supporting the narrative of the “China model” (zhongguo moshi).

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[CougarKing]

I find it hard to believe China's Xia class SSBNs didn't conduct these patrols before the Jin class came online:

Diplomat

China Deploys First Nuclear Deterrence Patrol

China reportedly deployed its first-ever submarine nuclear deterrence patrol. What does it mean?

By Benjamin David Baker
December 19, 2015

During the Cold War, nuclear deterrence was ultimately perceived to be an effective way of keeping tensions between the Warsaw Pact and NATO from exploding into war. Although much of the rhetoric surrounding Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) disappeared along with the Soviet Union, nuclear states still keep sizable arsenals to dissuade others from attacking them.

A central part of having a credible nuclear response option is to develop a so-called “nuclear triad.” This consists of having ground-, air- and sea-based nuclear capabilities, in order to retain a “second strike” capability in case an opponent launches its nukes first. Submarines and small, mobile land-based launch platforms armed with nuclear ballistic and so-called Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) are crucial to a second strike capability, since they are difficult to detect and target.

China has recently achieved some important milestones with regards to both these capabilities. According to IHS Jane’s, U.S. military officials confirmed that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has deployed a Type-094 Jin-class nuclear-powered ballistic submarine on a nuclear deterrence patrol. If true, this represents the first time that China has deployed a sub on this kind of mission.

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[CougarKing]

China irked by another US move:

Aviationist

Two U.S. B-52 skirt Chinese-controlled man-made island in the South China Sea sparking Chinese protest
Dec 19 2015 -
By David Cenciotti

On Dec. 10, two U.S. Air Force B-52 strategic bombers on a routine long-range mission flew within 12 nautical miles (the standard boundary of the territorial waters) of one of the seven Chinese man-made islands in the South China Sea, sparking China’s protests.

Although Washington has not taken an official stance on sovereignty claims surrounding the islands it does maintain that China’s new islands do not enjoy the traditional 12NM territorial limit. However, according to the Pentagon, the aircraft were not flying a so-called “freedom of navigation” mission (a pre-planned navigation used to assert U.S. rights to “innocent passage” in or close to other nation’s territorial waters): one of the aircraft flew within 2 miles of an artificial island along unintentional route. Interesting, since “navigation errors” are a bit surprising on long-range bombers equipped with redundant GPS, INS systems that should make their navigation quite accurate.

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[CougarKing]

Please note another article on how their rival Vietnam is also looking north, with Russia stirring the pot by selling arms to both of them.

Diplomat

China’s Arctic Strategy: The Geopolitics of Energy Security

Insights from Øystein Tunsjø
By Mercy A. Kuo and Angelica O. Tang
December 16, 2015

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How is China positioning itself in the Arctic?

China has not published any official Arctic strategy, policy or white paper, which suggest that the region has not been a priority and presently not high enough on the political agenda in Beijing. Nonetheless, statements by Chinese officials and China’s membership as a permanent observer in the Arctic Council have clarified China’s position on Arctic affairs and acknowledged China’s interests in the region. China’s growing activism in the Arctic is primarily shaped by scientific and climate considerations, commercial interest in the petroleum, shipping and mineral sector, as well as diplomatic and legal concerns. China’s willingness to become an Arctic Council observer supports the view that China does not challenge the sovereignty of the littoral states in the Arctic Ocean and remains committed to respecting the rule of law, including UNCLOS. China is positioning itself, and gaining a “foot in the door,” in order to access and extract resources and take advantage of strategic, economic, military, and scientific opportunities in the Arctic region in the years ahead.

How does China’s Arctic strategy fit into its Maritime Silk Road initiative?

China’s objectives in the Arctic could complement the One Belt, One Road Strategy (OBOR). Geographically, the Indian Ocean and the Arctic Ocean are the southern and northern flanks of the Eurasian landmass. Investments in shipping and infrastructure along the Northern Sea Route and the Maritime Silk Road can enhance China’s Silk Road Economic Belt strategy. In addition, China remains a huge littoral state. Consequently, China can add three oceanic frontiers to Mackinder’s “heartland” in Eurasia and overcome some of the challenges in controlling the heartland envisioned in the past. This could provide China with a favorable geopolitical position and an opportunity to “command the world islands” – Asia, Europe and Africa – in the twenty first century. However, it remains to be seen if China can successfully implement the OBOR strategy and whether Chinese investments in the Arctic region can complement this strategy.

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[CougarKing]

Next thing you know, Beijing will claim North America after reading the book "1421" ...  :

Telegraph

Beijing lays claim to South Korean waters
Renewed concerns over territorial disputes in Western Pacific as China pushes out sea borders

By Julian ryall, Tokyo

5:05AM GMT 23 Dec 2015

China is demanding that South Korea cede a large portion of its exclusive economic zone in the Yellow Sea to Beijing, including a submerged sea mount named Ieo that hosts a Korean marine research facility.

Officials of the two nations opened talks on the issue in Seoul on Tuesday, although recent claims by China that the sea mount falls within Chinese waters and should be known as Suyan Rock are causing concern.

Beijing's military have already effectively seized control of a number of reefs and shoals in the South China Sea, ignoring claims to the islands and their surrounding waters by Vietnam and the Philippines.

China is also becoming increasingly aggressive in the number and frequency of incursions by ships and aircraft into waters around Japan's Senkaku Islands, which Beijing claims are historically Chinese territory and should be known as the Diaoyu islands.

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[CougarKing]

A retired Royal Australian Navy commodore and a US Navy JAG officer examine the pros and cons of the recent USN FONOPS in the South China Sea:

Diplomat

The Strategist, the Lawyer and the South China Sea

Understanding law and politics in contested waters.
By Kerry Lynn Nankivell
December 22, 2015

Readers of The Diplomat were recently afforded an exchange by two leading experts in South China Sea disputes. Dr. Sam Bateman, a retired commodore of the Royal Australian Navy (RAN), wrote of the strategic problems associated with U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operations (FON OPS) in the South China Sea. Bateman warns of the United States “militarizing” a sensitive circumstance and “turning back the clock” on international law. Responding to these claims, Commander Jonathan Odom, judge advocate general (JAG), former oceans policy advisor in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and current military professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies, defended the FON OPS program by noting the legal errors underpinning Bateman’s argument.

At face value, each author’s analysis is useful but incomplete. Accepting Bateman’s approach means believing that FON OPS are illegal, or at least legally controversial. As Odom retorts, this is simply untrue. But accepting Odom’s legal defense of freedom of navigation as the last word in the South China Sea is to ignore the central geopolitical questions at hand. In the final reading, the lawyer’s discussion places boundaries on what is legitimately contested in the South China Sea in a way that the strategist finds hard to accept, while the strategist raises questions that the law can’t answer. Both Odom and Bateman make an important contribution to understanding the circumstance unfolding, though their arguments only relate to each other indirectly. This failure to communicate reflects the shrinking space for dialogue in the U.S.-China relationship itself, which sometimes rehearses the same arguments.

The Bateman-Odom dialogue carries special lessons. Precisely because the lawyer and the strategist find it hard to directly engage one another, their dialogue can teach us about the relationship between law and geopolitics in the South China Sea disputes and what it means for strategy and operations.

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[CougarKing]

Reminds me of the time several foreign diplomats and journalists were literally pushed away by government workers for reporting on the trial of human rights lawyer Pu Zhiqiang:

Shanghaiist

China to expel French journalist who questioned treatment of Muslim minority in Xinjiang

Ursula Gauthier is set to be the first foreign journalist to be shown the door since 2012 after writing an article which criticized Chinese government policy towards Uighurs in Xinjiang.

French news magazine L'Obs confirmed in a statement on Friday that Gauthier would not have her J visa renewed, presenting her with no choice other than to leave the country by December 31.

In the article, originally published on December 18, Gauthier suggested that China was using last month's Paris attacks to justify crackdowns on Uighur people in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region. L'Obs said Gauthier has since received death threats after her article was published.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Lu Kang, said the article "openly supports terrorist activity, the killing of innocents and has outraged the Chinese public." His comments appeared in a question-and-answer posted on the ministry's website on Saturday.

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