Canada's military peers into future, and it's scary

[TcDohl]

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/711772--canada-s-military-peers-into-future-and-it-s-scary

OTTAWA–The war between India and Pakistan spills over into Toronto's immigrant suburbs. A terrorist sleeper cell poisons Montreal's water system. Mandatory military service is enacted for young and new Canadians.

While the country's politicians debate what Canada's engagement in Afghanistan will look like after the current mission ends in 2011, the military has already peered far past that date to determine its training and equipment needs and the worst-case scenarios it must prepare to face.

While the Armed Forces constantly project scenarios for which to train, these hypothetical situations are rarely publicized. Although they appear far-fetched, the military is obliged to prepare for the worst, or risk being unready in the event of a catastrophe.

A 10-year forecast completed for the air force lays out likely trends in areas such as oil prices and aviation technologies, but also a series of "strategic shocks" – unpredictable events that could throw the best-laid plans off course.

The report predicts that oil prices will have doubled, tripled or quadrupled by 2019, unmanned attack aircraft will police the skies, and the Arctic will have become the zone of interest for the world's great powers.

A lethal, all-commando Canadian army may not stay in Kandahar, but it will be fighting terrorists in a geographic rainbow known as the "arc of instability" – a region stretching from western Africa, through the Middle East and into Southeast Asia.

"These areas have also traditionally served as potential safe havens for terrorists in developing, organizing and preparing for asymmetric attacks against the developed world," says the report, produced earlier this year by the Canadian Forces Aerospace Warfare Centre.

No more country-to-country wars for Canada. Instead, soldiers will face shadowy enemies in weak or failed states with little regard for civilian safety.

"It is projected that irregular challenges, asymmetrical warfare, low-intensity conflicts and insurgencies will be the most prevalent form of conflict until 2019."

The report also explicitly probes Canada's domestic fault lines – features like our shared border and trade ties with the United States or our large immigrant populations – and puts them up against some of the world's most volatile disputes to offer scenarios showing how a largely peaceful society could be torn apart.

 

[blacktriangle]

I would agree that the thought of all our army "going commando" is quite scary.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I would agree that the thought of all our army "going commando" is quite scary.

Luckily our highland regiments are 'anticipating future tasks', and are already leading the way in this vision of the future.  iper:

 

[GAP]

Luckily our highland regiments are 'anticipating future tasks', and are already leading the way in this vision of the future.  iper:

What....they're hemming their kilts?    ;D

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

The introduction of national military service for new Canadians in 2016 to tackle large immigration flows and a depleted military.

More excellent reporting from the Star... random report, with absolutely no military spokesman quotes.

 

[155mmMoose]

Oh no! Terrorists in a geographic rainbow known as the "arc of instability" are pissing off the Canadian military?
Sucks to be them.  ^-^

 

[brihard]

Luckily our highland regiments are 'anticipating future tasks', and are already leading the way in this vision of the future.  iper:

That's just how we roll.  ;D

 

[bdave]

Oh no! Terrorists in a geographic rainbow known as the "arc of instability" are pissing off the Canadian military?
Sucks to be them.  ^-^

 

[X-mo-1979]

The arc of instability.Ill take that one.Sounds warmer than the arctic.

 

[Dennis Ruhl]

By 2019 Afghanistan might have an army and police that is responsible for its own security, maybe.  Canada is defended by the Arctic, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans.  Should we choose, isolation is an option.  Intervening if failed states has not often had a positive outcome.

 

[marlborough]

By 2019 Afghanistan might have an army and police that is responsible for its own security, maybe.  Canada is defended by the Arctic, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans.  Should we choose, isolation is an option.  Intervening if failed states has not often had a positive outcome.

Not intervening has also not often had positive incomes.  Take Somalia...

 

[TangoTwoBravo]

Those are the best nightmare scenarios they can come up with?  :boring:

What about zombie-plagues, aliens or Mothra?  :alarm:

 

[GAP]

Those are the best nightmare scenarios they can come up with?  :boring:

What about zombie-plagues, aliens or Mothra?  :alarm:

Shhh....that's the next chapter....don't give away the story!!!  ;D

 

[brihard]

Those are the best nightmare scenarios they can come up with?  :boring:

What about zombie-plagues, aliens or Mothra?  :alarm:

I remember me and a few of the boys would debate the merits of various FOBs in the event that the Zombpocalypse hit while we were deployed...  ;D

 

[Kilo_302]

I would add "climate refugees" from the our neighbours to the south, and their neighbours in turn.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

I would add "climate refugees" from the our neighbours to the south, and their neighbours in turn.

Holy crap, you see Dyer speak once and your fixated.....

 

[Kilo_302]

Actually I have seen him speak several times, and on several different issues. I am sure you aware he didn't coin the term climate refugees.  There are many individuals (academics, military officers you name it) who are concerned with climate change and its possible spin off effects. He is but one.  But yes I will admit that his latest talk has got me thinking.

 

[mariomike]

Gwynne Dyer is not very popular with con Conrad Black.
"This had the result that Dyer's column has since been unavailable in the more mainstream Canadian newspapers, and consequently completely unavailable in large parts of the country.":
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwynne_Dyer#Controversial_discontinuations

 

[Dennis Ruhl]

Dyer - 175 papers in 45 countries?  I get his column once a month and the editor must pick and choose the oddest ones or maybe he's just gone odd, writing things just to be odd.  I'm not sure.  Back in the pre-Scott Taylor days Dyer used to do a lot of TV commentary and I thought he was just fine back then, only a little odd.