2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[Colin Parkinson]

Most people can absorb the carbon tax, just like they absorb any other cost - they pay it at the expense of something else they might have bought (unless they are receiving some kind of carbon tax rebate). Their overall consumption goes down (they are paying more for the same amount of something); whoever might have provided the foregone goods/services is out a little bit of revenue.

Up to a point. These taxes are cumulative. As one restaurant owner pointed out to me as he noticed we had cut our weekly dinner out to 3 instead of 4 a month. He said if 500 hundred of his customers cut back one meal a month, that's a drop of 500 sales for him. We are now at one outing a month due to costs. so that would be 1500 sales a month drop expanded to the rest of his customers.
Toss in the increase in renting, mortgage, car insurance, cost of gas, heating, electricity. The bottom of most peoples pots is being reached and the politicians/planners/senior bureaucrats don't get that the pots are not bottomless.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Yes, but recent cost increases involve a lot more than just carbon taxes. But again, evidence accumulates that much of the recent cost increases are at root due to energy cost and availability.

Almost no-one in a position of responsibility behaves as if catastrophic anthropogenic global warming is existentially threatening. But the political and economic damage of pretending to mitigate warming is real, and costly.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Up to a point. These taxes are cumulative. As one restaurant owner pointed out to me as he noticed we had cut our weekly dinner out to 3 instead of 4 a month. He said if 500 hundred of his customers cut back one meal a month, that's a drop of 500 sales for him. We are now at one outing a month due to costs. so that would be 1500 sales a month drop expanded to the rest of his customers.
Toss in the increase in renting, mortgage, car insurance, cost of gas, heating, electricity. The bottom of most peoples pots is being reached and the politicians/planners/senior bureaucrats don't get that the pots are not bottomless.

I have a similar thought any time Municipal or Provincial politician “demands” the next level of government “pay” for something.

There is only one level of taxpayer. Period.

 

[Navy_Pete]

He's the leader of the country or he's not. Which is it ?

This is some week 1 PLQ shit. You're boss in the good times and the shit times and you have be accountable for both.

Like Lumber said, I mean inflation is a global problem, not specifically a Canada issue. You shouldn't be held accountable for being hit by an earthquake or something, but your response to it should be.

Objectively Canada is doing better than most on inflation, but that only looks at how much things cost. If people have less money in their pockets on top of it, and some of these things are items the government can address, they should. Ie pause/roll back carbon taxes, reduce GST, etc.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Like Lumber said, I mean inflation is a global problem, not specifically a Canada issue. You shouldn't be held accountable for being hit by an earthquake or something, but your response to it should be.

Objectively Canada is doing better than most on inflation, but that only looks at how much things cost. If people have less money in their pockets on top of it, and some of these things are items the government can address, they should. Ie pause/roll back carbon taxes, reduce GST, etc.

Arguably, keeping or increasing the GST/Carbon taxes in times of high inflation can help reduce the M2 (and reduce inflation), as long as the Government does not just shovel the money out the door again as fast as it comes in.

 

[QV]

Like Lumber said, I mean inflation is a global problem, not specifically a Canada issue. You shouldn't be held accountable for being hit by an earthquake or something, but your response to it should be.

Objectively Canada is doing better than most on inflation, but that only looks at how much things cost. If people have less money in their pockets on top of it, and some of these things are items the government can address, they should. Ie pause/roll back carbon taxes, reduce GST, etc.

If you believe the rate of inflation you’re told.

Basic commodities and everything else has increased way more than 8%. Probably closer to 25% on average.

 

[Lumber]

If you believe the rate of inflation you’re told.

Basic commodities and everything else has increased way more than 8%. Probably closer to 25% on average.

Why wouldn't we believe it?

 

[Halifax Tar]

Outside factors does not remove one in a leadership position from responsibility.

I don't blame inflation on JT.

He does have to held accountable for his actions (or lack there of) on and methods (or lack there of) to recover.

My reply to Lumber ^

You may have missed that.

Like Lumber said, I mean inflation is a global problem, not specifically a Canada issue. You shouldn't be held accountable for being hit by an earthquake or something, but your response to it should be.

Objectively Canada is doing better than most on inflation, but that only looks at how much things cost. If people have less money in their pockets on top of it, and some of these things are items the government can address, they should. Ie pause/roll back carbon taxes, reduce GST, etc.

Arguing we are doing better than others is simply a deflection tactic.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Why wouldn't we believe it?

I think he answers why in his post.

 

[TacticalTea]

Why wouldn't we believe it?

BLUF: (Americans) Canadians aren't buying the "average basket of goods", they're buying more of essentials, which are considerably more expensive, and less of discretionary expenses, whose costs have been rising slower.

Inflation Is Higher Than the Numbers Say (Published 2020)

While government statistics say inflation is low, the reality is that the cost of living has risen during the pandemic, especially for poorer Americans.

www.nytimes.com

 

[QV]

Why wouldn't we believe it?

Because on this topic reality isn't aligning with the statement.

I think the coming years are going to be very difficult for many people.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The "rate of inflation we're told" is true because it's defined a certain way; it's arbitrary. Whether or not a particular good or service tracks it is a matter of reality. Voters are all going to have their own "lived experience" on the matter of inflation and no amount of "akshully, folks" explainers on what the rate is and how it is defined and how it is not really bad after all is going to have any impact on those who experience it deeply because their margin for trading "nice-to-haves" for "must-haves" is thinner.

 

[Good2Golf]

Yup, my groceries and gas and heating are certainly more than 8% more expensive than last year.

Amongst other factors, I would cynically believe that the Feds are trying to minimize the ‘real number’ for inflation so they don’t have to use a realistic number to have to adjust indexed pensions…

 

[Navy_Pete]

Yup, my groceries and gas and heating are certainly more than 8% more expensive than last year.

Amongst other factors, I would cynically believe that the Feds are trying to minimize the ‘real number’ for inflation so they don’t have to use a realistic number to have to adjust indexed pensions…

The normal measurement of inflation is the 'Consumer Price Index' and is put out by StatsCan. Those folks hold numbers as gospel and don't do anything to change them other than report what the CPI is calculated as, and all their info is posted for anyone to verify.

They report it monthly as well, which usually is a few months behind actual (because it takes time to collect the data). It's also for the country, so there are regional variances in costs that are averaged out.

They also have a 'personal inflation tool' where you can look at what you actually spend money on to figure out how it's affecting you. That's a lot more relevant than the generic CPI, which includes a lot of things (like alcohol and tobacco) that are luxuries, as well as clothing etc, but still doesn't necessarily show the impact on you personnally as it pulls country wide prices, which may not be the same as what you see in your grocery store. It's like when you drive an hour outside a big city and gas is $0.20 more a litre; YMMV based on geographics. Still, it's a useful data point to track at a very high level to have something as a reference point.

Personal Inflation Calculator

I guess a genuine question for everyone on the 'Justinflation' bandwagon, how would it have been different if the CPC was in power? The pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine still would have happened, and the BoC mandate under Harper was basically the same.

If PP was in power right now, what would he do differently to fight inflation? Sure, the carbon tax keeps going up, but that's not why gas was $2/litre back a few months ago. O&G companies are also reporting record profits, is he going to reign that in, or is that too communist? I just don't see any actual proposals for the how/what will change, only a desire for someone else.

 

[Kirkhill]

in the past 10 years, major oil and gas companies suffered tremendous losses in 2014, 2015, and 2020. In fact, in 2020 the five integrated supermajors (i.e., “Big Oil”) – ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, and Total – lost $76 billion. Oil prices plunged into negative territory in 2020.

If Oil Companies Control Prices, Why Do They Ever Lose Money?

 

[Lumber]

Amongst other factors, I would cynically believe that the Feds are trying to minimize the ‘real number’ for inflation so they don’t have to use a realistic number to have to adjust indexed pensions…

Aaaaaaaand there it is.

 

[Good2Golf]

Aaaaaaaand there it is.

What? That the government adjusts/fudges/re-weighs the composition of the CPI? This is a fact, not a conspiracy. It will be interesting to see how the 2022/2023 basket weightings are adjusted and what effect that demonstrably has on the CPI in the future.

An Analysis of the 2022 Consumer Price Index Basket Update, Based on 2021 Expenditures

This article presents the data sources and methodology for the Machinery and Equipment Price Index (MEPI). The MEPI is an input price index that measures the quarterly change in the price of machinery and equipment purchased by industries in Canada. The MEPI is an important indicator of economic...

www150.statcan.gc.ca

 

[QV]

I find it amusing some people just can’t/won’t believe government data is occasionally arbitrary or even at times misleading on purpose. I wonder what colour the sky is in that world?

 

[Navy_Pete]

What? That the government adjusts/fudges/re-weighs the composition of the CPI? This is a fact, not a conspiracy. It will be interesting to see how the 2022/2023 basket weightings are adjusted and what effect that demonstrably has on the CPI in the future.

An Analysis of the 2022 Consumer Price Index Basket Update, Based on 2021 Expenditures

This article presents the data sources and methodology for the Machinery and Equipment Price Index (MEPI). The MEPI is an input price index that measures the quarterly change in the price of machinery and equipment purchased by industries in Canada. The MEPI is an important indicator of economic...

www150.statcan.gc.ca

That's not the 'government' in a political sense, that's StatsCan. Otherwise they get complaints that the CPI doesn't reflect what people are actually seeing as spending trends change, and they are pretty transparent about what they do and why.

I'm guessing lower weighting next year on luxuries, higher on necessities, but you can always look at the individual item data too if you don't think the CPI is accurate.

There are a bunch of other inflationary indexes as well; some are more specific to manufacturing etc, so it's a lot of thought put into it, but at the end of the day it's just a number; what you pay at the grocery store is what's actually coming out of your pocket. One thing I've noticed is some items have a similar regular price, but are on sale an awful lot less (like loves of bread). I think I used to frequently pick up the same kind for $2.79 on sale, but most of the time it's at the full price of $3.99, so not sure for a situation like that if they use full ticket price or whatever it actually sells for.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Interesting and from the CBC

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pierre-poilievre-bipoc-youth-support-1.6586065