2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[Navy_Pete]

Oh man, she is scary in an awesomely impressive way. The CPC is foxed on this one.

What a mess, LPC has got to be loving this continuous streams of self goals.

 

[Lumber]

Conservatives bring in outside lawyers to review possibility of Patrick Brown appeal

Brown’s campaign has hired lawyer Marie Henein who sent a letter to the campaign Monday, calling for a swift meeting of the dispute resolution appeal committee

nationalpost.com

Looks like Brown has hired Marie Henein.

Oh SNAP!

 

[Remius]

Oh man, she is scary in an awesomely impressive way. The CPC is foxed on this one.

What a mess, LPC has got to be loving this continuous streams of self goals.

Add to that Thomas Mulcair’s latest piece. Something smells funny.

Tom Mulcair: Stephen Harper clearly has a preferred candidate in the Conservative race

Now that Patrick Brown is no longer a Conservative Party leadership candidate, it's a pretty safe bet that many if not most of his supporters will simply not vote and Jean Charest's hopes for second-place votes go down the tubes along with his 'path to victory,' former NDP leader Thomas Mulcair...

www.ctvnews.ca

So the CPC is really going to need to have Elections Canada come back and say « yes you were right ». Otherwise this won’t wear well at all.

 

[Lumber]

Add to that Thomas Mulcair’s latest piece. Something smells funny.

Tom Mulcair: Stephen Harper clearly has a preferred candidate in the Conservative race

Now that Patrick Brown is no longer a Conservative Party leadership candidate, it's a pretty safe bet that many if not most of his supporters will simply not vote and Jean Charest's hopes for second-place votes go down the tubes along with his 'path to victory,' former NDP leader Thomas Mulcair...

www.ctvnews.ca

So the CPC is really going to need to have Elections Canada come back and say « yes you were right ». Otherwise this won’t wear well at all.

Ah. So that's what he's up to these days.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Add to that Thomas Mulcair’s latest piece. Something smells funny.

Tom Mulcair: Stephen Harper clearly has a preferred candidate in the Conservative race

Now that Patrick Brown is no longer a Conservative Party leadership candidate, it's a pretty safe bet that many if not most of his supporters will simply not vote and Jean Charest's hopes for second-place votes go down the tubes along with his 'path to victory,' former NDP leader Thomas Mulcair...

www.ctvnews.ca

So the CPC is really going to need to have Elections Canada come back and say « yes you were right ». Otherwise this won’t wear well at all.

It must be something miserable to live in such a deep seated fear of Harper, like Mulcair and Trudeau. They seem to see him around every corner.

 

[Remius]

It must be something miserable to live in such a deep seated fear of Harper, like Mulcair and Trudeau. They seem to see him around every corner.

Former leaders that were popular in their own parties do exert some influence.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Former leaders that were popular in their own parties do exert some influence.

No doubt at all.

 

[Remius]

A lot of he said she said though. I’m going to wait and see what Elections Canada says.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Ah, Mulcair - the NDP's gift to the LPC.

 

[Remius]

Ah, Mulcair - the NDP's gift to the LPC.

He’s done his fair share of Trudeau bashing in his new line of work.

 

[Halifax Tar]

He’s done his fair share of Trudeau bashing in his new line of work.

He's just angry cuz he had to follow happy Jack. And well he's just and angry person.

 

[brihard]

Ok, Brown hired a scary lawyer. Fair enough. What will matter is does he have a solid legal argument? I’m not sure that even Henein can bully the CPC apparatchiks. It’s plausible that Brown did do wrong, and if so, he may be up a creek.

I have no real knowledge of how the law would apply to what are essentially internal corporate mechanisms of a political party. I don’t know if Brown has a recourse mechanism outside of civil tort.

 

[suffolkowner]

Ok, Brown hired a scary lawyer. Fair enough. What will matter is does he have a solid legal argument? I’m not sure that even Henein can bully the CPC apparatchiks. It’s plausible that Brown did do wrong, and if so, he may be up a creek.

I have no real knowledge of how the law would apply to what are essentially internal corporate mechanisms of a political party. I don’t know if Brown has a recourse mechanism outside of civil tort.

Yeah its a hard climb I think even if the party is clearly in the wrong by the time it is resolved it will be too late. The real kick in the nuts is the disqualification of 25% of the party membership

 

[Brad Sallows]

He’s done his fair share of Trudeau bashing in his new line of work.

Doesn't really help the NDP after he threw over so much of Jack's work to Trudeau by going along with "anybody but conservative". I doubt he'll ever come within an order of magnitude of making up for that.

 

[brihard]

Doesn't really help the NDP after he threw over so much of Jack's work to Trudeau by going along with "anybody but conservative". I doubt he'll ever come within an order of magnitude of making up for that.

Yes and no. Realistic best case for NDP is kingmaker, and getting major concessions out of an LPC government. They’ve done that. NDP won’t form government in any conceivable reasonable future, so their goals are best achieved by conditionally supporting the LPC. An LPC minority against a CPC that shows real potential to win an election is an ideal set of circumstances for the NDP.

 

[Brad Sallows]

But that's not how "ABC" (strategic voting) worked out. Handing more votes to the LPC - which is what "ABC" effectively did, and realistically always will do - helped give the LPC a majority (NDP irrelevant). Elections since haven't featured "ABC" (certainly not with the same intensity), and minorities resulted. On the evidence, fighting for votes and not conceding votes to the LPC is a more effective tactic for the NDP.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The electoral calculus for the Conservative party is simple. They need 170+ seats to forms a majority government. This graphic illustrates the "key terrain."

The next CPC leader MUST:

1. Hold on to almost al of the nearly 120 seats that Erin O;'Toole won in 2021 - which means NOT alienating the base; and

2. Turn nearly half (50+) of the red (LPC), orange (NDP) and green (BQ) seats in the graphic to Tory blue.

Anything less is a failure ... a failure to understand that about half of Canadians live in a few big cities and in the suburbs around them and they get about half the seats in the HoC. Elections in Canada are, broadly, fair - PEI and the Territories are grossly overrepresented, so are most rural areas, and most big cities are underrepresented, but it's pretty fair and, slowly, its' getting more fair - and honestly won. Justin Trudeau is PM because his party understands that.

 

[Good2Golf]

Elections in Canada are, broadly, fair - PEI and the Territories are grossly overrepresented, so are most rural areas, and most big cities are underrepresented, but it's pretty fair and, slowly, its' getting more fair - and honestly won. Justin Trudeau is PM because his party understands that.

And why the 2015 promise for electoral reform died a very quiet death…

 

[Halifax Tar]

Anything less is a failure ... a failure to understand that about half of Canadians live in a few big cities and in the suburbs around them and they get about half the seats in the HoC. Elections in Canada are, broadly, fair - PEI and the Territories are grossly overrepresented, so are most rural areas, and most big cities are underrepresented, but it's pretty fair and, slowly, its' getting more fair - and honestly won. Justin Trudeau is PM because his party understands that.

From where I sit, population density shouldn't dictate the direction of the country. And our current division of seats only helps to keep the status quo in place we while leave huge swaths of the country undervalued and represented; and only creates more division.

 

[mariomike]

Anything less is a failure ... a failure to understand that about half of Canadians live in a few big cities and in the suburbs around them and they get about half the seats in the HoC. Elections in Canada are, broadly, fair - PEI and the Territories are grossly overrepresented, so are most rural areas, and most big cities are underrepresented, but it's pretty fair and, slowly, its' getting more fair - and honestly won. Justin Trudeau is PM because his party understands that.

See also,

One person, one vote? In Canada, it's not even close

Some ridings have fewer than 40,000 people. Others are closer to 160,000. Can anything be done to make them more equal?

www.wellandtribune.ca