What Might Civil War Be Like?

[a_majoor]

While this has been dormant for a while, here is David Kilcullen speaking about the possible flashpoints and triggers for a potential American Civil War:

https://www.ussc.edu.au/events/a-conversation-with-author-david-kilcullen

Very interesting discussion

 

[tomahawk6]

Civil War like any other would be ugly. While I doubt it would look like our last civil war I think it might resemble revolutions like those in France or Russia and Romania.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Civil War like any other would be ugly. While I doubt it would look like our last civil war I think it might resemble revolutions like those in France or Russia and Romania.

I think your president would threaten to use nukes.

 

[NavyShooter]

I think the tipping point is actually approaching unfortunately.

Read yesterday that there's cities undergoing....troubles....that no longer have police resources to respond to riots, so they're not calling them riots anymore.  When their total reserve of available officers is less than 30, that's badness on the verge of happening.

If all those officers are dealing with riots, what's happening in the non-flashpoint areas to regular crime?  What else is falling through the cracks?

What's happening down south is very concerning. 

 

[OldSolduer]

What's happening down south is very concerning.

Yes it is and there seems to be no middle ground where the sane and reasonable people can come to agreement.

Either yer fer us or agin us

I remember the Ceaucescus going to the firing squad when the Romanian people had enough of them. They were defiant and unrepentant to the end.
I really hope it doesn't come to this and cooler heads prevail.

 

[dimsum]

I think your president would threaten to use nukes.

On home soil, against its own population?  So much for any support short of the die-hard nutjobs.  If there was any inkling of doubt in someone, having POTUS say "we're nuking CA/NY" would turn them the other way.

 

[QV]

He’s being facetious.  You can’t honestly think that’s an option POTUS would consider. 

 

[CBH99]

In my own humble opinion, the biggest challenge facing American society right now is the American media.

It is beyond polarizing, cherry picks little things here & there to present to their viewers - and even then, skews & manipulates things as to not accurately reflect what is happening.  When folks like John Oliver, who is intended to be a comedy show, is one of the more reliable sources of information - that society has a problem.


Perhaps it is by design? 

Not to sound like a crazy conspiracy theorist...but large American media conglomerates know full well that they polarize the population. 

No longer can you be a regular, down to earth, common sense type who walks mostly down the middle.  Now, a majority of the people label themselves as either 'democrat' or 'republican'.  The label is irrelevant.  The problem is that a majority of the population have been manipulated into labeling themselves as one or the other, in a society that is very polarized between the two.  The media has not only accomplished it's goal of polarizing the population, but it in turn feeds the irrational & fear driven thinking process of the two camps with absolute nonsense.

That, and a lot of folks get their news from social media sources - even worse than the talking heads on the TV screens.


Combine that with the fact that they are by far the most heavily armed population on Earth, and are the 3rd mostly densely populated country on Earth also - and it is a recipe for disaster. 




America is absolutely hitting a point where it's on the verge of either imploding, or hitting some serious speedbumps.  My fear is that the American media - whom in my opinion is responsible for a lot of the current issues - will 'cry foul' at any attempts to hold them more accountable...and thus continue to add fuel to the fire.

America needs a true statesman now more than ever.    :2c:

 

[dimsum]

He’s being facetious.  You can’t honestly think that’s an option POTUS would consider.

If you asked me that in 2017, 2018...maybe even 2019 I'd agree.

 

[QV]

If you asked me that in 2017, 2018...maybe even 2019 I'd agree.

I’m curious to what gives rise to that sort of assumption, all things considered.  I ‘d understand if you thought that in 2017 with the fake news and what no person knows now... but now?  He didn’t nuke NK, he didn’t send the troops in against state wishes, he’s pulling troops back from some places.  All his words and actions indicate he wouldn’t be prone to something like that.  But here we are, people seriously believing Trump would want to nuke his own country.  This is the media’s doing.

 

[a_majoor]

Actually the only American politician who even suggested that the release of nuclear weapons on America's soil might be in play was Rep. Eric Swalwell, a California Democrat, in November 2018.

After Joe Biggs tweeted that Mr. Swalwell “wants a war” over the Second Amendment, Mr. Swalwell responded, “And it would be a short war my friend.”

“The government has nukes.Too many of them. But they’re legit,”

One can only wonder what was going through his head.

 

[mariomike]

Actually the only American politician who even suggested that the release of nuclear weapons on America's soil might be in play was Rep. Eric Swalwell, a California Democrat, in November 2018.

Did Democrat Rep. Eric Swalwell ‘Suggest Nuking’ Gun Owners Who Resist Confiscation?
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/eric-swalwell-gun-owners-nukes/
Conservative web sites and commentators pounced on a tweet which the Democratic Congressman insisted was no more than a joke.

 

[a_majoor]

On a more serious note, I found another David Kilcullen article which suggests that our current COIN theories may be reaching their limit, and the operational environment is changing. Since civil war in the modern age will resemble an evolved insurgency (uniformed armies are not going to spring up overnight, but groups like Antifa, BLM, MS-13 and the counter of apparently 500 separate armed militias being raised to patrol neighbourhoods and protect lives and properties now exist in considerable numbers).

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/future-of-warfare-in-a-post-coin-conflict-climate

There is nothing new about urban coastal environments. We were talking about this since the 1990s, when General Krulak advanced the idea of “three block war”, and Ralph Peters and General Scales were talking about urban environments. But this was before the cell-phone era, before the Internet had penetrated into the developing world, before widespread access to satellite television. So, in the 10 years that we’ve been busy in a landlocked war environment like Afghanistan doing counterinsurgency against non-state actors, the environment has dramatically changed. As we come back from the last decade of fighting, we are going to come back to an environment that is actually fundamentally altered, not only because of the number of people that are now living in urban environments, but because of how connectivity changes how conflict plays out in these environments.

Not only has the environment changed, how insurgents fight has changed as well:

The scary thing that Black Hawk down tells you is that because of how these guys operate-- with tactics completely emergent within a self synchronizing swarm-- there is actually no headquarters in the Western sense. The guy I sat with. a Somali brigade commander, didn’t have a bunch of guys with radios in a command and control center. What he had, it was walkie talkie and a larger truck than everybody else, carrying a reserve of fighters and ammo. He just listened on the radio and drove around the battlefield to where the fighting was heaviest. He didn’t need to give an order for the attack because the self-synchronizing tactical system didn’t require that. The scary thing that Black Hawk Down tells you is that if the Rangers were able to capture Aidid, it might not have any effect at all. They were going after a headquarters that didn’t exist.

We're going to have to think several steps ahead to make sure we are able to function as an institution and force in that sort of environment.And don't think peer adversary forces like Russian Spetsnaz or Chinese Marines are not going to present like that to evade our sensors and firepower.

 

[CBH99]

A low altitude helicopter insertion into Winnipeg in the winter?? 

Come right on in Chinese...


Don't mind us as we chuckle behind our cameras while you look around, freezing, confused.  Only to huddle inside the nearest Starbucks while you wait for your extract. 

 

[Colin Parkinson]

On a more serious note, I found another David Kilcullen article which suggests that our current COIN theories may be reaching their limit, and the operational environment is changing. Since civil war in the modern age will resemble an evolved insurgency (uniformed armies are not going to spring up overnight, but groups like Antifa, BLM, MS-13 and the counter of apparently 500 separate armed militias being raised to patrol neighbourhoods and protect lives and properties now exist in considerable numbers).

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/future-of-warfare-in-a-post-coin-conflict-climate

Not only has the environment changed, how insurgents fight has changed as well:

We're going to have to think several steps ahead to make sure we are able to function as an institution and force in that sort of environment.And don't think peer adversary forces like Russian Spetsnaz or Chinese Marines are not going to present like that to evade our sensors and firepower.

So far there has been at least 2 anti-ship missile attack by non-State actors. Multitudes of commercial drones being used and to note the one flying into the open back of a LAV and the drones used to attack the Saudi oil refinery are to be noted. The ability to build cheap self guiding suicide drones by non-state actors is going to grow and predict that a Western naval ship of of a coast somewhere is going to be hit by these and they won't go after the Frigates and the likes, but the lesser protected AOR's and coastal patrol vessels.

 

[daftandbarmy]

While this has been dormant for a while, here is David Kilcullen speaking about the possible flashpoints and triggers for a potential American Civil War:

https://www.ussc.edu.au/events/a-conversation-with-author-david-kilcullen

Very interesting discussion

Historically, those who tend to promote worries about Civil Wars and generally exploiting other fears to attract people to their political parties, should be viewed with suspicion. Just sayin':

"Whilst the SA and the SS played their part, the Nazis primarily focused on increasing their membership through advertising the party legitimately. They did this through simple and effective propaganda.

The Nazis started advocating clear messages tailored to a broad range of people and their problems. The propaganda aimed to exploit people’s fear of uncertainty and instability. These messages varied from ‘Bread and Work’, aimed at the working class and the fear of unemployment, to a ‘Mother and Child’ poster portraying the Nazi ideals regarding woman.  Jews and Communists also featured heavily in the Nazi propaganda as enemies of the German people."

https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-nazi-rise-to-power/the-nazi-rise-to-power/propaganda/

 

[OldSolduer]

A low altitude helicopter insertion into Winnipeg in the winter?? 

Come right on in Chinese...


Don't mind us as we chuckle behind our cameras while you look around, freezing, confused.  Only to huddle inside the nearest Starbucks while you wait for your extract. 

Make sure the insertion is on Lake Winnipeg. It is a huge nasty thing at the best of times.

 

[Cloud Cover]

I’m pretty certain Kamala Harris has suggested that even with a Democratic win in November, the riots - which are now more like an insurgency or insurrection- could very well intensify.

 

[Jarnhamar]

How did white supremacist racist America survive the devastating riots after the US elected a black president, twice?

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

This will be allowed to continue until November.  If Trump wins, expect them to be put down aggressively.

The rioting and looting actually benefits Trump IMO.