Shot at least, yeah, possibly dead. Or he could have dropped $30 for a cheap airsoft at Canadian Tire.
Coincidentally I was at the range today requalifying at pistol, and naturally enough the subject came up. A couple of us spread out to about the same distance and pointed our cell phones at each other as if they were guns. Looked to be pretty similar lighting conditions to what he faced. We agreed that yeah, it could easily and justifiably have gone either way. It was certainly reasonable to be able to discern that it was a cell phone (or at least likely not a gun), but equally in a high stress situation and with him moving about it could have been easy to perceive that the item was a gun and act accordingly.
The officer did a phenomenal job. He was cool and collected right from the start. Clearly he was able to recognize that he was not facing a gun. Note in the video how he reaches into his cruiser and turns off the sirens so he can hear. Hearing the man say 'kill me' etc, it looks like the officer recognized a suicide by cop attempt and was able to keep his time and distance until the suspect's behaviour changed. He transitioned to baton, went in, and took control. Interestingly had another officer arrived on scene any sooner, it's entirely possible the suicide by cop would have succeeded.
The officer would have been justified in shooting based on the actions and behaviours of the suspect. Especially the fast reach for the pocket. Fortunately the officer was switched on and cool enough to call the bluff, with a phenomenally successful result. His judgment and restraint was the epitome of professionalism. He done good.