Bert
Sr. Member
- Reaction score
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Gotta love these Stratfor articles.
Europe on Alert: The Threat to The Netherlands
Jul 16, 2004 1141 GMT
www.stratfor.com
The U.S. Embassy in The Netherlands issued a warden message on
July 15, reminding U.S. citizens of the heightened terrorism alert in
that country -- a risk rating that was raised July 10 following
intelligence gathered from phone taps involving the alleged
mastermind of the Madrid bombings, Rabei Osman Sayed Ahmed.
In addition, United Nations officials said July 15 that they had received
a threatening letter -- reportedly attributed to al Qaeda -- warning of
possible strikes against European Union institutions in both Brussels and
The Hague.
U.S. intelligence sources tell Stratfor that The Netherlands is widely
viewed as a ripening target for Islamist militants, given some of the
following criteria:
The country has been a staunch ally of the United States concerning action
in Iraq and has provided more than 1,000 troops to coalition efforts there.
The current secretary-general of NATO, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, is Dutch.
Though NATO has not been involved in Iraq to date, the alliance has voiced
some willingness to engage in reconstruction efforts there. It also is heavily
involved in operations in Afghanistan, which previous al Qaeda statements
have insinuated is a basis for attack.
A Dutchman -- Jan Peter Balkenende -- currently holds the rotating presidency
of the European Council.
The Hague is home to the International Court of Justice -- a well-known
symbol of Western influence. The Netherlands has a robust shipping industry:
Rotterdam is the world's second largest port, as measured by total cargo volume.
Threats against shipping companies have drawn increasing attention following
the activation of new port safety regulations, drafted by the International
Maritime Organization, around the world on July 1. Threats also have been
issued recently against shipping companies -- including an unnamed Dutch
firm -- doing business with the U.S. military. Like much of Europe, The Netherlands
has a robust public transportation network -- including heavily used rail systems, which
are vulnerable soft targets. Sources within the U.S. intelligence community say
that before the March 11 bombings in Madrid, Dutch officials did not take a
serious view of the possibility that their country could be targeted for
attack. The government now is re-evaluating that stance, but possibly is
playing catch-up on strengthening security infrastructure and procedures.
Despite the heightened threat level, The Netherlands -- unlike other European
states -- has been a backwater in terms of public arrests or interdictions of
potential militant cells. That may not be a reflection of the government's
level of interest in the issue -- Dutch intelligence officials recently told
Portuguese authorities that one of 14 Tunisian and Moroccan men arrested
in June was a suspected Islamist militant, though no one in the group ever
was charged. The Netherlands also was involved in a Europe-wide sting
operation targeting Turkish leftist groups in April. However, no publicly
announced arrests of suspected militants have occurred on Dutch soil.
Though it is possible that arrests have occurred and are being kept secret,
the absence of activity seems increasingly suspicious in light of a flurry
of counterterrorism activity through other parts of Europe. Given that
al Qaeda holds its cards close -- and the threat of attack hangs over
the entire EU, following the expiration of a three-month militant
moratorium -- it is not illogical to surmise that the group could be
distracting the attention of security agencies with "false positives"
throughout much of Europe while seeking to attack a locale where
strikes are not expected -- and where there has been a
conspicuous absence of indicators.
Someplace like The Netherlands.
Europe on Alert: The Threat to The Netherlands
Jul 16, 2004 1141 GMT
www.stratfor.com
The U.S. Embassy in The Netherlands issued a warden message on
July 15, reminding U.S. citizens of the heightened terrorism alert in
that country -- a risk rating that was raised July 10 following
intelligence gathered from phone taps involving the alleged
mastermind of the Madrid bombings, Rabei Osman Sayed Ahmed.
In addition, United Nations officials said July 15 that they had received
a threatening letter -- reportedly attributed to al Qaeda -- warning of
possible strikes against European Union institutions in both Brussels and
The Hague.
U.S. intelligence sources tell Stratfor that The Netherlands is widely
viewed as a ripening target for Islamist militants, given some of the
following criteria:
The country has been a staunch ally of the United States concerning action
in Iraq and has provided more than 1,000 troops to coalition efforts there.
The current secretary-general of NATO, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, is Dutch.
Though NATO has not been involved in Iraq to date, the alliance has voiced
some willingness to engage in reconstruction efforts there. It also is heavily
involved in operations in Afghanistan, which previous al Qaeda statements
have insinuated is a basis for attack.
A Dutchman -- Jan Peter Balkenende -- currently holds the rotating presidency
of the European Council.
The Hague is home to the International Court of Justice -- a well-known
symbol of Western influence. The Netherlands has a robust shipping industry:
Rotterdam is the world's second largest port, as measured by total cargo volume.
Threats against shipping companies have drawn increasing attention following
the activation of new port safety regulations, drafted by the International
Maritime Organization, around the world on July 1. Threats also have been
issued recently against shipping companies -- including an unnamed Dutch
firm -- doing business with the U.S. military. Like much of Europe, The Netherlands
has a robust public transportation network -- including heavily used rail systems, which
are vulnerable soft targets. Sources within the U.S. intelligence community say
that before the March 11 bombings in Madrid, Dutch officials did not take a
serious view of the possibility that their country could be targeted for
attack. The government now is re-evaluating that stance, but possibly is
playing catch-up on strengthening security infrastructure and procedures.
Despite the heightened threat level, The Netherlands -- unlike other European
states -- has been a backwater in terms of public arrests or interdictions of
potential militant cells. That may not be a reflection of the government's
level of interest in the issue -- Dutch intelligence officials recently told
Portuguese authorities that one of 14 Tunisian and Moroccan men arrested
in June was a suspected Islamist militant, though no one in the group ever
was charged. The Netherlands also was involved in a Europe-wide sting
operation targeting Turkish leftist groups in April. However, no publicly
announced arrests of suspected militants have occurred on Dutch soil.
Though it is possible that arrests have occurred and are being kept secret,
the absence of activity seems increasingly suspicious in light of a flurry
of counterterrorism activity through other parts of Europe. Given that
al Qaeda holds its cards close -- and the threat of attack hangs over
the entire EU, following the expiration of a three-month militant
moratorium -- it is not illogical to surmise that the group could be
distracting the attention of security agencies with "false positives"
throughout much of Europe while seeking to attack a locale where
strikes are not expected -- and where there has been a
conspicuous absence of indicators.
Someplace like The Netherlands.