March 29/09: The Jerusalem Post reports that Pentagon Defense Intelligence Agency Lt.-Gen. Michael D. Maples provided official confirmation of the sale in his testimony “annual threat assessment” to the US Senate Armed Services Committee:
“With regard to its external defense, Syria’s military remains in a defensive posture and inferior to Israel’s forces, but it is upgrading its missile, rocket, antitank, aircraft and air defense inventories…. Recent Syrian contracts with Russia for future delivery include new MiG-31 and MiG-29M/M2 fighter aircraft.”
Appendix A: The Aircraft
MiG-29OVT/ MiG-35
The MiG-31E is reportedly offered on a trade-in basis for countries that have the MiG-25 Foxbat interceptor, a list that currently includes only Syria, Libya, and Kazakhstan.
The big MiG-25 caused quite a sensation in the west when it was first unveiled, and incidents in which the planes were tracked at speeds around Mach 3 added to its mystique. In time, the west would learn that its aerodynamic design and lack of a gun made it vulnerable in dogfights, that flying at speeds over Mach 2.5 had a tendency to melt the plane’s engines, and that its range was extremely short...
The MiG-31 made a virtue out of the Foxbat’s vices, turning it into a 2-seat hunter-killer of cruise missiles via extra fuel, improved engines and intakes, in-flight refueling, the ‘Flash Dance’ electronically scanned radar, a retractable refueling probe, and an internal gun. Unlike its predecessor, the MiG-31 is capable of low-level supersonic flight, and can reach Mach 2.8 before its engines begin to melt. It also has communications capabilities that allow its pilot to view the full air battle in a C3I mini-AWACS role, and direct other aircraft like a chess player.
Aeronautics.RU described the MiG-31E variant as:
“Export version of basic Type 01. Prototype (‘903’) first noted 1997; simplified systems, no active jammer, downgraded IFF, radar and DASS. Offered to China, India and other countries.”
These planes could be of some use to Syria in an air defense role. Syria’s air force, which was once reliably on the cutting edge of technology during its Cold War years as a Soviet proxy, has not modernized in over a decade.
Iran’s two air forces (regular and Revolutionary Guard) would find the MiG-31’s style crimped by the absence of air-to-air refueling capabilities, but cruise missile defense is important to them given the likelihood of cruise being used in enemy strikes from Israel or America. MiG-31s could also step into the ‘fighter AWACS’ role that has been played to date by Iran’s dwindling but ingeniously maintained fleet of F-14A Tomcat fighters. This would be only marginally useful against a full American offensive, but could make a big difference to Iran’s ability to cover limited targets – such as an Israeli strike on its nuclear bomb-making facilities.
As for the MiG-29, Syria already flies earlier versions. So does Iran, thanks to the Iraqi Air Force who fled to “safe haven” in Iran during the 1991 Gulf War.
The aircraft has a poor combat record, in part because early variants, that were not fully equipped, were used in scenarios that were extremely lopsided from the outset in all respects.
When used on more even terms, however, German pilots who flew East Germany’s older MiG-29As against NATO F-16s and other jets believed that the planes were nearly unbeatable in short-range dogfights when armed with Russia’s AA-11/R-73 “Archer” short range missiles and helmet-mounted display systems. The fallout from those exercises actually led Germany to quit the ASRAAM program, and begin work on the multinational IRIS-T short-range missile instead. It also led to helmet-mounted sights becoming standard equipment on most modern combat aircraft around the world.
The MiG-29A’s biggest weaknesses were short range, engines that produce telltale smoke (very bad in air combat) and lack of true multi-role capability. Its other weakness is Russian spare parts support; India found that the long turnaround times led to terrible readiness rates, with a large portion of its MiG-29A fleet grounded at any given time. In response, they have taken steps that include licensed local engine production.
The MiG-29M/M2 uses welded lithium-aluminum alloys to save weight, while adding extra fuel in a new aircraft “spine” down the back and in the spaces once occupied by the auxiliary air intakes. This is coupled with improved engines, and redesigned horizontal tailplanes that improve maneuvering performance. A new radar and avionics package improves air-air performance, broadens its available arsenal, and adds ground-attack capability, making it a true multi-role aircraft.
The MiG-29OVT, aka. MiG-35, adds further upgrades to the radar and avionics package, and offers multi-directional thrust-vectoring engines for an additional super-maneuverability edge close-in.
In a situation where neither side had external advantages, when flown by pilots of comparable skill, and armed with similar missiles, it is likely that a true MiG-35 would be at least an even adversary for any Israeli opponent, and any American aircraft other than the F-22A.
Of course, war isn’t about even odds. War is about finding the most unbalancing things available, and doing them as quickly as possible. The use of true AWACS aircraft, electronic jamming, better radars, better missiles, and pilot skill differences would all combine to ensure that any fight involving Israel vs. Syria or Iran vs. the USA would be anything but even. Syria’s MiG-25s, MiG-23s, and MiG-21s experienced that first hand in 1982, when they were massacred 80 to 0 over Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.
