Sun Spots

[daftandbarmy]

Spot the revolution.....


"A. L. Tchijevsky, a Russian professor of Astronomy and Biological Physics,
noticed during World War I that particularly severe battles followed solar flares. Since
the sunspots were in a peak period during 1916-17, no doubt the war and its various
battles were heavily stimulated by the energies which are boiling off the Sun. Intrigued
by the connection of human behavior to solar physics, Tchijevsky constructed an “Index
of Mass Human Excitability”. He compiled the histories of 72 countries from 500 BC to
1922 AD to provide a strong database to articulate his correlations. After rating the most
significant events, Tchijevsky found that fully 80% of the most significant human events,
mostly related to war and violence, occurred during the 5 years or so of maximum
sunspot activity.

In the History Cycle Table, it is easy to see that both political and economic
affairs are profoundly caught up and influenced by the “waves” of sunspot energy."

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/cosmos/solarwind/Sunspot%20Cycles%20&%20Human%20History.pdf

 

[Fusaki]

A sunspot cycle is only 11 years.  To say that 80% of wars occur in 5 of those years doesn't really say much - especially when biggest wars typically last longer then 5 years anyways.

:

 

[Brasidas]

A sunspot cycle is only 11 years.  To say that 80% of wars occur in 5 of those years doesn't really say much - especially when biggest wars typically last longer then 5 years anyways.

:

I've just had a flash of genius. That +/-5 years is a 10-year range on an eleven year cycle. If only 80% of wars occur in 10 out of 11 years, then 20% of wars must occur in the 1 year minimum of the solar cycle: a mere 9.1% of the range. Ergo it is when solar activity is at its least that wars happen.

In other news, selective analysis of statistics can produce sensational but meaningless soundbites.

OOC: Looking at the information presented, I'd guess that it was a 5 year range centered about the maximum, not "within five years" as the article actually says. I still call BS.

 

[chrisf]

Correlation and causality are far from the same thing.