Sudan 2023 Thread- Discussion on Our Evacuation Capabilities

Ottawa deploys rapid deployment team to Djibouti to provide emergency response
The Canadian Press · Posted: Apr 21, 2023 11:10 PM EDT | Last Updated: April 21

Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly, pictured in Ottawa last month, says the Canadian Embassy in Sudan's capital, Khartoum, has temporarily suspended in-person operations due to security concerns. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press)

The federal government says it has deployed members of its Global Affairs Standing Rapid Deployment Team to Djibouti due to the volatile and rapidly deteriorating situation in Sudan.

Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said the Canadian Embassy in Sudan's capital, Khartoum, has temporarily suspended in-person operations.

The Rapid Deployment Team can provide emergency response, co-ordination, consular assistance and logistical support, she said.

The federal government says the Department of National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces are also planning for contingencies but gave no further details.

Roughly 1,500 Canadians registered in Sudan
On Thursday, Joly said Canada has no means of evacuating citizens from Sudan, where violence has drastically escalated between the country's army and its rival paramilitary force.

Global Affairs Canada has said it knows of roughly 1,500 Canadians registered as being in the northeast African country.

"The situation in Sudan is volatile and deteriorating rapidly," Joly said in a news release on Friday. "Canada continues to call for an end to violence and stands with the Sudanese people as they strive for peace.

"We are actively monitoring the situation in Sudan and working with neighbouring countries, as well as with like-minded governments and the international community to co-ordinate the response to this crisis."

Smoke fills the sky in Khartoum on Friday. Joly said Canada has no means of evacuating citizens from Sudan, where violence has drastically escalated between the country's army and its rival paramilitary force. (Maheen S./The Associated Press)

Joly said consular services remain available to Canadians in Sudan, but due to the security situation, these could be limited.

Officials in Ottawa are in regular contact with Canadians there, providing them with information and advice as the situation develops, she said.

The United States and other countries anticipate the violence to escalate and have been preparing to evacuate their citizens in Sudan.

Some of the heaviest fighting has been over airports.

The Pentagon has moved a small number of troops to a base in Djibouti to support an evacuation.

Gen. Mark Milley, chair of the U.S. joint chiefs of staff, discussed the situation with defence officials from Germany, Italy and Canada at a gathering in Germany on Friday, a U.S. official said.

One topic was ensuring that any potential evacuation efforts did not conflict. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the deliberations.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/sudan-unrest-volatile-joly-1.6819292

 

[WLSC]

I imagine they receive lots of intel that doesn’t spill over- so it’s generally successful to ignore things because most of the time it doesn’t come to a boil.

I have a question. My own experience with some operational stuff that when I build a risk assessment card- almost happens on an annual basis- I am continually frustrated that these almost annual emergencies are treated like no one could have predicted it,

Solutions like propositioning supplies and logistic lines- groups that communicate, are always thrown away- so inevitably the next time it comes around we do something hasty and act like we couldn’t know,

I would have thought- that evacuating Canadians from countries would have a standing contingency that you could dust off with one or two phone calls,

There would be planning etc- but that seems like a thing we should expect to use often enough that we should have such a thing- and that thing is more likely to be used than some of the capabilities we do invest in.

Do we not keep a real “high readiness” group? Like one we can fire off and not something we call high readiness or rapid response that actually can’t be moved

Couples of years ago, we did. Maybe now they have to convene the group, don’t know

 

[Fabius]

It depends on your definition of High Readiness.

The CAF does maintain a NEO force on high readiness. It’s a 1 Cdn Div task with a NEO Bn with a Coy as it’s Vanguard.

However if you understand High Readiness to be the following and more you might be surprised:

1. Fully manned. Personnel present and not on national courses, taskings etc. HR personnel to include all support pers required to launch the forces, ie traffic techs, riggers etc.

2. Equipment packed and prepared for air loading. All serviceable and as per TO&E or MTOE.

3. Ammunition, Fuel, Batteries, Food, Water, etc all built into pallets and ready to be combat loaded onto airframes.

4. Dedicated Joint Assets assigned and held on the same HR readiness. ie Aircraft and crews and ground personnel.

5. Trained as a team prior to launching with the actual pers involved.

When you compare the Canadian Army high readiness understanding to some other organizations understandings it’s eye opening.

True high readiness is costly, resource intensive and hard to maintain without significant forces to rotate through. Overall as an institution outside of likely SAR and the RCAF fighters on NORAD duty I don’t think we truly understand what something like a 4Hr notice to move means nor do we define that.

 

[OldSolduer]

It depends on your definition of High Readiness.



When you compare the Canadian Army high readiness understanding to some other organizations understandings it’s eye opening.

True high readiness is costly, resource intensive and hard to maintain without significant forces to rotate through. Overall as an institution outside of likely SAR and the RCAF fighters on NORAD duty I don’t think we truly understand what something like a 4Hr notice to move means nor do we define that.

4 hours NTM would be a very short window - that is why one needs to be prepped right from number one rifleman, 1 Section 1 Platoon all the way up the chain to the TF commander - and the support pers as well. Great explanation BTW.

 

[daftandbarmy]

It depends on your definition of High Readiness.

The CAF does maintain a NEO force on high readiness. It’s a 1 Cdn Div task with a NEO Bn with a Coy as it’s Vanguard.

However if you understand High Readiness to be the following and more you might be surprised:

1. Fully manned. Personnel present and not on national courses, taskings etc. HR personnel to include all support pers required to launch the forces, ie traffic techs, riggers etc.

2. Equipment packed and prepared for air loading. All serviceable and as per TO&E or MTOE.

3. Ammunition, Fuel, Batteries, Food, Water, etc all built into pallets and ready to be combat loaded onto airframes.

4. Dedicated Joint Assets assigned and held on the same HR readiness. ie Aircraft and crews and ground personnel.

5. Trained as a team prior to launching with the actual pers involved.

When you compare the Canadian Army high readiness understanding to some other organizations understandings it’s eye opening.

True high readiness is costly, resource intensive and hard to maintain without significant forces to rotate through. Overall as an institution outside of likely SAR and the RCAF fighters on NORAD duty I don’t think we truly understand what something like a 4Hr notice to move means nor do we define that.

And then there's the 'three to one' rule: it takes three units to beef up one unit to short notice to move status...

 

[RangerRay]

When we had to evacuate Lebanon a few years ago, wasn’t it a bit of a clusterf@&$ but we still managed to get aircraft and contracted ships there to get people out? I think I recall Harper diverting the VIP jet there to get people and he still got shit on.

Or do I have my facts wrong?

 

[Fabius]

4 hours NTM would be a very short window - that is why one needs to be prepped right from number one rifleman, 1 Section 1 Platoon all the way up the chain to the TF commander - and the support pers as well. Great explanation BTW.

4hrs as a random example would be very short agreed. For a NEO TF on high readiness with that 4hrs defined as 4hrs from the GO to wheels up from Trenton you would need to have the planes loaded with equipment, personnel waiting in ready facilities by the aircraft, aircrew likely preflight if the birds etc.
Then the question is how long can you hold in that configuration.
It’s not as straightforward as it’s made out to be.

 

[OldSolduer]

4hrs as a random example would be very short agreed. For a NEO TF on high readiness with that 4hrs defined as 4hrs from the GO to wheels up from Trenton you would need to have the planes loaded with equipment, personnel waiting in ready facilities by the aircraft, aircrew likely preflight if the birds etc.
Then the question is how long can you hold in that configuration.
It’s not as straightforward as it’s made out to be.

Very good points - and you can't have troops sit on rucksacks for days on end. Nor can flight crews sit in the plane for days on end.
ADD to that if the political scene changes it could delay things or bump it up.

 

[Maxman1]

MV ASTERIX has a hospital wing onboard, complete with X-Ray, Trauma Surgery, and a Ward that can house 5-7 patients at a time. So, in the event of a medical emergency, there’s a place they can go.

The Mistral class has a NATO Role 3 medical facility. The French mostly use them for humanitarian response.

The 900 m2 (9,700 sq ft) hospital[43] provides 20 rooms and 69 hospitalisation beds, of which 7 are fit for intensive care.[44] The two surgery blocks come complete with a radiology room[45] providing digital radiography and ultrasonography, and that can be fitted with a mobile CT scanner.[40] 50 medicalised beds are kept in reserve and can be installed in a helicopter hangar to extend the capacity of the hospital in case of emergency.[46]

Mistral-class amphibious assault ship - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[KevinB]

Overall as an institution outside of likely SAR and the RCAF fighters on NORAD duty I don’t think we truly understand what something like a 4Hr notice to move means nor do we define that.

I would add CANSOF, or at least the DHTC side to that.

Very good points - and you can't have troops sit on rucksacks for days on end. Nor can flight crews sit in the plane for days on end.
ADD to that if the political scene changes it could delay things or bump it up.

You can, just not the same ones…

There is a reason why units on short NTMs rotate.

You end up with @daftandbarmy ’s 3:1 rule anyway to keep a Rapid Deployment Capability, and it’s actually a fairly exponential 3 rule.

As each rotating portion of that group needs to have go gear, training gear, and spares.

It gets expensive fast.

 

[Rifleman62]

I wonder how many of those 250 will be actual shooters and not part of an oversized HQ...

Under Command of a General, 2 i/c - Colonel. Both Meritorious Service Cross at end mission.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

When we had to evacuate Lebanon a few years ago, wasn’t it a bit of a clusterf@&$ but we still managed to get aircraft and contracted ships there to get people out? I think I recall Harper diverting the VIP jet there to get people and he still got shit on.

Or do I have my facts wrong?

That was about 58,000 people as I recall and if so that is a lot of people to evacuate. Many who had not been back to Canada in years and it was a "Get out of jail card" for them.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Many who had not been back to Canada in years and it was a "Get out of jail card" for them.

This is something we need to figure out how to fix.

 

[dapaterson]

Under Command of a General, 2 i/c - Colonel. Both Meritorious Service Cross at end mission.

For efficiency, we should just issue them in advance.

 

[daftandbarmy]

For efficiency, we should just issue them in advance.

Which should nicely devalue the award itself

In other news, well done India for evacuating hundreds of its citizens... including some who were apparently held hostage:

'They kept us hostage…': Indians evacuated from Sudan recount ordeal; first flight set to reach Delhi at 9 pm​

Amid the 72-hour ceasefire that has been agreed upon by the two warring factions in Sudan, countries have been evacuating their citizens at the speed of light.

As the Sudan crisis continues hundreds of Indians were evacuated under Operation Kaveri this week. With the two warring factions agreeing upon a 72-hour ceasefire on Monday, several countries have moved to extricate citizens at the speed of light.

“The fight was intense. We were struggling for food. The scenario continued for 2-3 days," one of the rescued individuals told news agency ANI.

'They kept us hostage…': Indians evacuated from Sudan recount ordeal

Amid the 72-hour ceasefire that has been agreed upon by the two warring factions in Sudan, countries have been evacuating their citizens at the speed of light.

www.livemint.com

 

[Fishbone Jones]

When we had to evacuate Lebanon a few years ago, wasn’t it a bit of a clusterf@&$ but we still managed to get aircraft and contracted ships there to get people out? I think I recall Harper diverting the VIP jet there to get people and he still got shit on.

Or do I have my facts wrong?

You answer is in your question. It was Harper and a Conservative government that made that happen. Not the current IDGAF chimpanzees.

 

[Quirky]

For efficiency, we should just issue them in advance.

Can't have future CDS's with nothing but a CD on their uniforms....

 

[Fabius]

Canadian military unlikely to conduct airlifts out of Sudan past this week: officials - Wings Magazine

Ottawa is unlikely to evacuate citizens from Sudan after this week, officials say, though it is not clear when Canadian planes will actually start

www.wingsmagazine.com

Interesting parts in this article that are relevant to future NEOs:

1. Diplomatic Clearances. Goes with out saying but the staffing, experience and resources issues at GAC directly impact the CAFs ability to do tasks when and where we want or need the cooperation of foreign states for overflight and landing permissions.

2. Joint Operations specifically in relation to high readiness. Our aircraft had to be pulled together from Japan, the Arctic etc. Our fleets snd crews are stretched over the globe with routine tasks and we have no strategic reserve it would seem. Our high readiness forces aren’t joint in nature due to that it would appear.

Two other thoughts from the article.

We seem to be stuck as the CAF and DND in only saying numbers of personnel deployed, ie 200. Interestingly this is not inclusive of the deployed aircrew etc. my issue is that while making sense perhaps from OPSEC it doesn’t help the institution connect our units and our personnel to the Canadian public and our potential recruits.

Final thought is that overall given the CAFs personnel shortfalls, equipment deficiencies, lack of actual real high readiness capabilities etc. they actually responded fairly quickly once given the word to go.

Ironically that relative success might very well prevent much in terms of sober examination once this is over.

 

[Quirky]

Accurate.

EDITORIAL: Our military isn’t a travel agency

torontosun.com

 

[MilEME09]

The window to evacuate from Sudan by air is rapidly closing

Canadian Armed Forces are working with allies to examine land and sea evacuation routes after a Turkish plane was hit with gunfire at Khartoum airfield.

globalnews.ca

It's getting worse

 

[daftandbarmy]

The window to evacuate from Sudan by air is rapidly closing

Canadian Armed Forces are working with allies to examine land and sea evacuation routes after a Turkish plane was hit with gunfire at Khartoum airfield.

globalnews.ca

It's getting worse

All you need is one 18 year old head banger with an RPG and that door will close pretty fast.