• Thanks for stopping by. Logging in to a registered account will remove all generic ads. Please reach out with any questions or concerns.

Saudi Arabia monarchy succession crisis could lead to discord

Mecca will prove to be an interesting NEWS item to keep one's eye on.  With the destabilization of so many Muslim nations in that Region now, with the various sects of Islam seeking power; will Saudi Arabia still hold the upper hand in controlling this religious site and the power that goes with it?
 
Robert0288 said:
I think we need an expert on the familial power struggle of the Saudi family to figure out which way the wind will blow.  Also it doesn't help that the new king is 79 years old either.  Might lead to a string of power change overs without any one solidifying their grasp.

Too long didn't read version:  :dunno:

From the various news articles, it seems like both King Salman and Crown Prince Muqrin are strongly influenced by the late king.  I believe that given the geopolitical situation (especially Yemen), the Saudi royal family will close ranks and continue as before.  For them, this is not the time to rock the boat.
 
Robert0288 said:
I think we need an expert on the familial power struggle of the Saudi family to figure out which way the wind will blow. 

A BBC article from last November on possible secession issues.

Saudi Arabia: Why succession could become a princely tussle
By Gerald Butt Middle East analyst
18 November 2014 Last updated at 12:02 ET
   
With the Middle East in an unprecedented state of turmoil, the need for smooth and orderly transfers of power in Saudi Arabia - ruled by a 90-year-old infirm monarch - has become more crucial than ever - but who will inherit the kingdom in the coming years is a thorny issue yet to be resolved.

Saudi Arabia is a large and influential country. Guardian of the two most holy sites in Islam, it regards itself as leader of the Sunni community worldwide.

The kingdom is a key player in Sunni attempts to block Shia Iranian influence in the Middle East - and is the world's leading oil producer.

On the face of it, the immediate succession process is arranged and agreed upon by the senior princes of the Al Saud royal family.

King Abdullah will be succeeded by Crown Prince Salman, an event which in turn should make Prince Muqrin (at present deputy crown prince) the next heir to the throne. All three men are sons of the founder of Saudi Arabia, King Abdulaziz (usually referred to as Ibn Saud), who died in 1953.

All five monarchs since then have been drawn from among his dozens of sons - but this pattern cannot continue indefinitely.

Looming challenge?

Prince Muqrin, who is in his late 60s, is the youngest son of Ibn Saud.

Some of Prince Muqrin's older half-brothers, including Prince Ahmed - a full-brother of Crown Prince Salman - are still alive.

Prince Ahmed and Crown Prince Salman are survivors of the so-called Sudairi Seven - sons of one of Ibn Saud's favourite wives, Hassa al-Sudairi. Until recently the Sudairi Seven constituted the strongest alliance among the male offspring of Ibn Saud.

Today, the assumption - but no more than that - is that Prince Muqrin's elevation to deputy crown prince means that in time he will be the last son of the founding monarch to sit on the throne. But Prince Ahmed might still assert his seniority by age.

The unprecedented step of appointing a deputy crown prince was a move by King Abdullah to ensure smooth transition in the immediate future.

Two crown princes (Sultan and Nayef) have in recent times died before becoming kings. King Abdullah is old and frail, while, according to unconfirmed reports, Crown Prince Salman (78) suffers health problems - something strongly denied by the Saudi authorities.

Saudi lines of succession

A meeting of the Allegiance Council, a body consisting of sons and grandsons of Ibn Saud to resolve succession issues, was held in March 2014 and endorsed King Abdullah's elevation of Prince Muqrin - with the proviso that this appointment could not be overturned.

But not all princes present at that Allegiance Council meeting voted in favour of Prince Muqrin's promotion. Differences of opinion are likely to manifest themselves still more when he, as the youngest of Ibn Saud's sons, moves up the succession ladder.

The focus of Saudi public speculation about future leadership progression centres today on which of the grandsons of Ibn Saud will be chosen to lead the way.

This is where the old adage about the Saudi succession becomes pertinent: those who speak a lot know nothing; those that know a lot say nothing.

All one can do at this stage is point to some of the strong candidates, several of whom already hold senior posts.

However, another caveat is the fact that those in power tend to appoint their sons to roles that will enhance their chances in turn of being promoted. When monarchs and crown princes change, sons can come into and out of favour.

Of the four sons of King Abdullah who are public figures, the favourite for swift promotion is Prince Mutaib (in his early 60s) who last year was appointed commander of the powerful National Guard and cabinet minister in a post created for him.

Behind closed doors

Perhaps the contender spoken of the most is Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, who is Minister of Interior - a post that his father (Crown Prince Nayef, one of the Sudairi Seven) held for many years.

Prince Mohammed, with a strong track record in government, enjoys popular respect and has impressed his hosts in visits to the United States and elsewhere.

Saudi Arabia faces many internal challenges, ranging from rising youth unemployment, the return of jihadists from Iraq and Syria, to growing criticism of Al Saud on domestic social media and simmering restiveness in the Shia-dominated Eastern Province.

As they deal with these issues, senior princes will want to avoid giving their enemies any indication that cracks are appearing in the Al Saud edifice. So, while animated debate can be expected about who will eventually carry the baton for the grandsons of the founding monarch the likelihood is that such matters will be resolved in the privacy of palaces rather than in public forums.

Gerald Butt, a former BBC Middle East correspondent, is a regional analyst for Oxford Analytica and Petroleum Policy Intelligence.

Article Link.   Link includes photos and secession chart.

Other articles:

The Saudi succession: King Abdullah appoints a second in line to the throne (Economist - 05 Apr/14). Link includes more charts.

Saudi Arabia: the coming royal succession (NOREF - Feb/14).





 
Salman suffers from dementia so what happens next will get very interesting.
 
The fun and games in the Middle East are really going get started now as the various factions in Saudi Arabia start to jockey for control.
 
tomahawk6 said:
Salman suffers from dementia so what happens next will get very interesting.

Ah, he should fit right in then.
 
I hope it turns into a big power struggle and shitshow, with demonstrations, et al. While they're dealing with that, I hope ISIS takes advantage and moves on Mecca and Medina.

With any luck, they'll wipe each other out.
 
And just in case nobody's worried at all...

http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/2015/January19/191.html

Death Of Saudi King Could Set Stage For Islamic End Times Frenzy In 2015

January 19, 2015 | Rohollah Faghihi

In the last two years, media outlets have published conflicting reports on Saudi King Abdullah's health. Just last week, Saudi Arabia's Royal Court announced that the king has pneumonia and is temporarily using a breathing tube.

In fact, every time the king's health deteriorates, news agencies speculate on what will become of the Saudi dynasty and its leadership after the king's death. But some Shiite scholars think differently about the matter, believing that Abdullah's death will mark the beginning of a chain of great events that will shock the world.

Some Shiite scholars believe that the Saudi king's death will signal the resurrection of the Mahdi and the beginning of the end-times.

Abdullah, the 10th son of King Abdulaziz, was born Aug. 1, 1924. His mother, Fahda bint Asi Al Shuraim, was a member of the Al Rashid family, longtime rivals of the Al Saud family and a historic dynasty in the Arabian Peninsula that ruled the emirate of Jabal Shammar. Abdullah ascended to the throne in 2005 following the death of his half-brother King Fahd, though power was already in his hands.

According to Shiite hadiths, after the death of a king named Abdullah in the Hijaz — a western region of present-day Saudi Arabia — no successor to the throne would be accepted, and disagreements would escalate and persist until the rise of Imam Mahdi.

The Shiites believe that divine Imams are heirs to the political and religious Ummah, or Islamic nation. These 12 imams are successors to the Prophet Muhammad and to the head of the caliphate, with Mahdi being the final Imam who disappeared, or went into occultation. Mahdi will be revealed only in the end-times, along with Jesus, to deliver peace to the world.

According to the book "250 Signs Until the Appearance of Imam Mahdi," Prophet Muhammad said: “On doomsday, a man who is carrying the name of an animal ascends to the throne, after which a man named Abdullah comes to the power. Whoever informs me of his death, I will inform him of the rise [of Mahdi]. After Abdullah passes away, for several days and months, the government will appear.”

A seminary teacher based in Qom told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, "The animal-named man can be King Fahd because one meaning of Fahd’s [name] is rapacious animal and cheetah, which matches what Prophet Muhammad said."

The Bahar al-Anvar, a book of hadiths, quotes the sixth Shiite Imam Sadegh as saying: "When Abdullah dies, people will agree on no one, and this issue will be kept alive till the rise of Imam [Mahdi]. An age of a hundred-year reign comes to an end, and an age of a [kingdom lasting] a few days and months arrives."

The Shiite scholar in Qom said, "Currently, there is a possibility of a power struggle in Saudi Arabia, as King Abdullah has tried to make up the new post of deputy crown prince. Actually, with regard to [this], if Prince Salman becomes the king and Muqrin bin Abdulaziz is named the crown prince, the next deputy crown prince will be Mutaib bin Abdullah, so we can expect tensions between King Abdullah's sons and Salman's brothers to escalate after Abdullah passes away."

In 2012, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud was named crown prince, and two years later, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz was introduced as deputy crown prince.

According to Al-Akhbar newspaper, past tradition dictated that the interior minister would be the most likely candidate for second deputy prime minister, and after that, the post of crown prince. But after upgrading the status of the National Guard, which is chaired by Mutaib bin Abdullah, and turning it into a ministry on par with the ministries of defense and interior, King Abdullah’s wing in the royal family is well-positioned to be a strong contender for the throne.

The Qom seminary teacher said that according to some hadiths, leaders in the Hijaz will hide news of the king's death for 40 days. Based on Abdullah's deteriorating health situation, this could have happened by now.

Some believe that the rise of terrorist groups in the Levant, along with their black flags, is another sign of Mahdi's resurrection.

The Nahj al-Balagh, a collection of the first Shiite Imam Ali's sayings, quotes the imam as saying: “When you witness black flags, don’t move, because their calls are void and null and you shouldn’t help them. Their heart is like iron fillings, and they don’t honor their promise. Their names and monikers are taken from the names of cities.”

The Qom-based scholar explained the quotation, “Black flags can suggest the Islamic State, which is killing hundreds of innocent people in the region with brutality, and [regarding people named after cities], I can mention Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi or Omar al-Chechen.”

He added, “Many in the seminary of Qom believe that the rise of Imam Mahdi is imminent. Even important figures in the seminary have expressed their hope for this event to happen and has called for our readiness to help him.”

“What’s happening in the region is very similar to what our Imams have predicted about preconditions for the rise of Imam Mahdi, so the moment of truth may have come.”

Historian Muhammad Hossein Rajabi Davani told an Iranian newspaper: “With respect to promises in Shiite hadiths, we are certainly experiencing doomsday, but doomsday has no time frame and it’s not known when it begins and ends.”

Yet, certain Shiite narratives and hadiths contradict the aforementioned narratives, suggesting different signs for the rise of Imam Mahdi. Today, however, many are speculating about the events that will follow the Saudi king's death, as well as its impact on global developments. With the death of King Abdullah, according to some analyses, stability in Riyadh may come to an end, setting off a chain of prophecies and the resurrection of Mahdi.
 
Yes, there have been many cries of "the end of the world is coming" throughout history.  I'm sure, that one day, someone will be correct.  If Jesus is coming, we better get start to look busy...
 
Nayef to be the next Saudi king after Salman?

Canadian Press

Saudi king recasts line of succession to elevate counterterrorism czar, defence minister son
The Canadian Press

By Aya Batrawy, The Associated Press |

(...SNIPPED)

The 79-year-old king appointed his nephew, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, as crown prince. The 55-year-old prince, who also serves as interior minister and was previously deputy crown prince, has led the kingdom's crackdown on Islamic militants and has worked closely with Western security and intelligence agencies. He has survived several assassination attempts, including one in 2009 by al-Qaida.

The prince becomes the first from among his generation to be elevated to such a high position. He replaces Prince Muqrin, Salman's half brother, who had widely been seen as a transitional figure.

(...SNIPPED)
 
Salman consolidating power?

Reuters

King's changes make Saudi policy less predictable

By Angus McDowall

RIYADH (Reuters) - Changes in Saudi Arabia's leadership have concentrated power in an inner circle of the Al Saud dynasty, removing constraints on the monarch and making the conservative kingdom's strategic positions less predictable.

The world's top oil exporter has always prized stability, developing policies slowly and altering them rarely, partly because of the need to balance rivalries among ruling family members and their conflicting interests.

That may now be changing. Since inheriting the throne from his brother in January, King Salman has embarked on a war in neighboring Yemen, restructured the oil sector and shaken up domestic governance, including the line of succession.

(...SNIPPED)
 
Back
Top