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Russia to quadruple nuclear weapon production

geo said:
You talking about North Korea in this thread ?

I guess you're trying to be a bit humorous, geo, but it didn't quite come across.

I happen to share Thucydides' fear about Russia: it is weak and humiliated and it does face myriad severe problems - fiscal, demographic, strategic - none of which appear, to me be to amenable to quick, easy, cheap solutions. Russia has no history of the sort of liberal and entrepreneurial 'spirit' or 'drive' that jump started England, then America and Western Europe in the 18th and 19th centuries and Japan and then China and India in the 20th.

I think Russia poses a real danger to the West what Barnett called the "connected core" - even though he, mistakenly in my view put Russia in that core in one of those fits of wishful thinking that so often, too often, characterizes American 'thought' about Russia.

Russia might have been a petro-[super]power when oil was nearing $150.00/bbl - might have been if the Russians could manage their vast, sprawling, poor, corrupt, unproductive nation and its wealth in resources. With oil approaching $30.00/bbl it is not clear that Russia can heat its own homes or fuel its own factories, much less afford to export oil and gas to Europe.

I see Russia as a fast fading giant, old and weak before its time, but able, maybe to lash out once more - if only to exact some revenge for the humiliation of the 1990s. That's a danger.
 
George Friedman at STRATFOR provides an interesting overview of the immediate problems facing the US, and hence, the Western alliance, in Obama Enters the Great Game.

Beyond the economy, which isn't discussed in the article, Friedman states that Obama has to deal with the great game of global competition, where "presidents rarely get to set the agenda." Obama comes into office with "three interlocking issues: Afghanistan, Russia and Europe. In one sense, this is a single issue — and it is not one that will wait."

He ties together the Afghanistan campaign, particularly the heavy logistics, with Pakistan's instability forcing greater reliance on a Russian-dominated supply route. There will be a requirement, naturally, for Russian participation (or at least non-interference if a Caspian route is chosen over an actual route through Russian territory). This will come at a price, which would be borne by a Europe/NATO that is increasingly beholden to Russian gas.

The knock-on effects will add greatly to those threatened "interesting times."

 
Hey Edward,

I guess I was trying to be tongue in cheek on this one.
While North Korea is a complete and total basket case with an armfull of Nuclear capacity, an economy in ruin AND a leadership that is weak and failing fast... I fear them 1st - because they are probably the country that is probably the most "ripe" at this present time.

WRT Russia, lotta things going for it and a lot of things going against it - least of which is the present decline in world oil prices , notwithstanding the price of gas this morning :GRRR:  However, I perceive them as still having a lot potential... (in the same way as India & China had a lot of unharnessed potential between the 1880s and 1990)  Posessing nukes - I can only compare them as a something akin to being a "Teen with a Gun".  Lots of potential for trouble.
 
As Russia's oil wealth dissapates, so does the social consensus.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/4414018/Vladimir-Putin-faces-signs-of-mutiny-in-own-government-as-protests-break-out-in-east.html

Vladimir Putin faces signs of mutiny in own government as protests break out in east
Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, faces signs of an unprecedented mutiny within his own government that threatens to undermine his once unassailable authority, The Sunday Telegraph can reveal.

By Adrian Blomfield in Vladivostok
Last Updated: 9:20AM GMT 01 Feb 2009

Subordinates have begun openly to defy Mr Putin, a man whose diktat has inspired fear and awe in the echelons of power for nine years, according to government sources. Meanwhile a rift is emerging between Mr Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev, the figurehead whom he groomed as his supposedly pliant successor.

As Russia's economy begins to implode after years of energy-driven growth, Mr Putin is facing the germs of an unexpected power struggle which could hamper his ambition to project Russian might abroad.

Mounting job losses and a collapse in the price of commodities have triggered social unrest on a scale not seen for at least four years, prompting panic among Kremlin officials more accustomed to the political apathy of the Russian people.


The unease was deepened yesterday after thousands of protestors marched through the Pacific port city of Vladivostok and other cities, including Moscow, demanding Mr Putin's resignation for his handling of the flailing Russian economy.

Up to one million Russians are estimated by financial analysts to have lost their jobs over the past two months, and the economy is expected to shrink by up to three per cent this year. Meanwhile the Russian rouble has been falling steadily against other currencies for months, making it the world's third worst performing currency this year, and industry is disintegrating.

"I was furious when I heard Putin speaking fairy tales in Davos about how our economy is under control," said Yevgeny Antipov, a 21-year-old student in Vladivostok, insisting that he was not afraid to be marching against the government for the first time.

"It is my duty to stand up for my rights," he said. "I want to live in a good place. I want my children to grow up in a free country, not a gulag."

Worryingly for the government, the rally was lead by the Communist party -- which has been wary of criticising Mr Putin in the past -- and a new grassroots movement called Tiger, which draws together a range of disaffected residents from Russia's far east. Tiger is the kind of organisation that the Kremlin particularly fears, a civil rights movement with no political allegiance.

In Moscow dozens of protestors were arrested, including Eduard Limonov, head of the banned National Bolshevik Party.

At least two senior officials in the Russian Far East had previouisly countermanded an order by Mr Putin to use force to disperse anti-government protests, a source close to the Kremlin said.

Angry car workers in Vladivostok and other cities on Russia's Pacific seaboard first rose up in anger last month after Mr Putin announced a rise of up to 80 per cent in tax on imported foreign cars.

The decision, aimed at protecting Russia's own decrepit and crisis-ridden domestic car industry, threatened economic disaster for the Russian far east, where at least 100,000 people are employed in the business of importing and revamping second hand cars from Japan and South Korea.

The protests, which began on Dec 14, rapidly took on a political hue and Mr Putin, who is intolerant of dissent, ordered the Kremlin's top officials in the far east to use force next time. But senior adminstrators refused to intervene and a week later the government was forced to send a special detachment of riot police from Moscow to break up a second protest in Valdivostok.

Furious that he had again been disobeyed, Mr Putin directed Vladislav Surkov, his top ideologue, to sack the newly appointed head of internal affairs in Primorye, the region surrounding Vladivostok.

But the official, Maj Gen Andrei Nikolayev, flatly refused to leave his post. Sources say he threatened to expose corruption linked to the Kremln in the Russian far east if Mr Putin pressed ahead.

Such a gesture of defiance is almost unheard of in Russia. Gen Nikolayev was supposed to be the man entrusted by the Kremlin to keep regional officials under control.

But he quickly found a powerful champion in the form of President Dmitry Medvedev, who is said to have countermanded his dismissal. "The fight between Medvedev and Putin started over this issue and has been getting worse ever since," the source close to the Kremlin said.

The row in Russia's duumvirate threatens to undermine Mr Putin's carefully laid plan to remain Russia's most powerful man after he was forced by the constitution to step down as president last year.

Mr Putin changed jobs to become prime minister last May and shoehorned Mr Medvedev, a pliant loyalist and old friend, into his old job. For the first six months the new president seemed willing to act as the prime minister's junior.

But things have now begun to change. Allegedly goaded by his wife Svetlana, Mr Medvedev has started to assert himself and to criticise the government - though not Mr Putin by name - for its slow implementation of a $200 billion rescue package.

He is understood to have begun building up a small but significant independent power base. In what could be a major scalp for the president, it is rumoured in Moscow that Mr Surkov has defected to his side.

Relations between Mr Putin and Mr Medvedev have reportedly soured in recent weeks. Mr Putin is said to have been furious after receiving an report on the economy drawn up by the president's experts, viewing it as interference.

"The financial crisis has given Medvedev a whiff of opportunity to challenge Putin," a Western diplomat said. "Putin is arguably not capo di tutti capi any more."

Even though his approval rating remains high - 83 per cent in the most recent survey - Mr Putin is, like other world leaders, under pressure because of the financial crisis. So far he has put a brave face on his problems, lecturing world leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week on how to solve their financial woes.

But he has made an unspoken bargain with his people. In return for creating an anti-democratic state, he has promised to deliver financial stability and economic growth. That pledge, which looked so secure when oil was selling at more than $100 a barrel, is looking increasingly tattered today.

The anger of ordinary Russians was on show in the streets of Vladivostok yesterday. Although only several hundred began the march, ordinary passers by applauded in encouragement as they passed and many joined them as they marched down the city's main street, chanting "Putin resign!". Some banners compared the prime minister to Hitler.

By the time the demonstrators reached the finishing point in a square dominated by a statue of Lenin, their number had swelled to nearly 2,000.

The biggest display of public disaffection with Mr Putin prompted a violent response in Moscow. Pro Kremlin youth wingers brutally beat some protestors, while others were detained, including Eduard Limonov, a prominent Kremlin critic and leader of the outlawed National Bolshevik Party.
 
But he has made an unspoken bargain with his people. In return for creating an anti-democratic state, he has promised to deliver financial stability and economic growth. That pledge, which looked so secure when oil was selling at more than $100 a barrel, is looking increasingly tattered today.

Figured that the economic downturn would have an effect on our Soviet Russian friends and their ambition of regaining their position WRT Global domination.  This is going to be a lesson in Economics 101 for our friend Vladimir.  Global domination is going to have to wait for better times.
 
geo said:
Figured that the economic downturn would have an effect on our Soviet Russian friends and their ambition of regaining their position WRT Global domination.  This is going to be a lesson in Economics 101 for our friend Vladimir.  Global domination is going to have to wait for better times.

Indeed, but this economic mess is not going to last forever.  In the short term Putin may be in trouble, and obviously any attempt at reasserting itself globally in any meaningful way will be difficult for now.  However, once this economic mess turns around, I beleive one of the first things to happen will be a sharp increase in the price of oil.  If that happens were back to square one.  Provided that Putin can survive between now and then we are looking at a short term delay at best in the grand strategic picture.

In my opinion that means Russia is still a threat.  I agree that North Korea is an area for concern as well though.  Which one is more dangerous in the immediate future?  That is hard to say.  North Korea is pressing hard to agitate South Korea as we speak, but Russia still has much more capability of projecting power then North Korea does.  Because of the ailing food supplies in North Korea, they would never be able to make full use of their military power. 
 
Journeyman said:
George Friedman at STRATFOR provides an interesting overview of the immediate problems facing the US, and hence, the Western alliance, in Obama Enters the Great Game.

Beyond the economy, which isn't discussed in the article, Friedman states that Obama has to deal with the great game of global competition, where "presidents rarely get to set the agenda." Obama comes into office with "three interlocking issues: Afghanistan, Russia and Europe. In one sense, this is a single issue — and it is not one that will wait."

He ties together the Afghanistan campaign, particularly the heavy logistics, with Pakistan's instability forcing greater reliance on a Russian-dominated supply route. There will be a requirement, naturally, for Russian participation (or at least non-interference if a Caspian route is chosen over an actual route through Russian territory). This will come at a price, which would be borne by a Europe/NATO that is increasingly beholden to Russian gas.

The knock-on effects will add greatly to those threatened "interesting times."

Since power projection just got priced out of the market; blocking actions aimed at other powers are now the order of teh day:

http://lawhawk.blogspot.com/2009/02/russian-about-face-on-logisitical.html

Russian About Face On Logistical Support For Afghan Operation?

Instapundit notes that the Russians are about to pull the rug out from under the US and NATO in their ongoing Afghan operation.

Russian news agencies are reporting that the government of Kyrgyzstan will close Manas Air Base, a vital conduit for U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

RIA-Novosti quotes Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev as saying that his government "has made the decision to end the term for the American base on the territory of Kyrgyzstan." (The RIA-Novosti news report, which followed a press conference in Moscow, has not been translated into English; the Associated Press has a summary.)

It was only a few days ago that it was reported that President Bush had negotiated deals allowing access to bases in Central Asia to support the Afghan campaign; a vital necessity given that the Pakistani supply routes are coming under attack on a daily basis by the Taliban and have been cut repeatedly (including today when the Taliban blew a major bridge).

The negotiated deal between the US and the Russians as reported by the AP story noted that several routes were being considered.
U.S. officials have said one likely new route is overland from Russia through Kazakhstan and on through Uzbekistan using trucks and trains. Another possible route is through Azerbaijan across the Caspian Sea to the Kazakh port of Aktau and then through Uzbekistan.
Has Russia done an about face? It certainly appears that they're twisting the screws and testing President Obama.

Curiouser and curiouser.
 
Further evidence of Russia's economic decline. Oile prices may bounce back after (or because of) the financial crisis, but much of the wealth will need to be used to rebuild decayed infrastructure and perform other useful investments. If Russia's rulers continue with the Kleptocracy, then Russians might start asking hard questions about where the oil wealth is going to:



Have Car, Need Briefs? In Russia, Barter Is Back
By ELLEN BARRY
Published: February 7, 2009

MOSCOW — Does the Taganrog Automobile Factory have a deal for you! Rows of freshly minted Hyundai Santa Fe sport utility vehicles are available right now. In exchange — well, do you have any circuit boards? Or sheet metal? Or sneakers?

German L. Sterligov in his farmhouse outside Moscow with his sons last week. He is building a computer-based barter system.

Here is a sign of the financial times in Russia: Barter is back on the table.

Advertisements are beginning to appear in newspapers and online, like one that offered “2,500,000 rubles’ worth of premium underwear for any automobile,” and another promising “lumber in Krasnoyarsk for food or medicine.” A crane manufacturer in Yekaterinburg is paying its debtors with excavators.

And one of Russia’s original commodities traders, German L. Sterligov, has rolled out a splashy “anti-crisis” initiative that he says will link long chains of enterprises in a worldwide barter system.

All this evokes a bit of déjà vu. In the mid-1990s, barter transactions in Russia accounted for an astonishing 50 percent of sales for midsize enterprises and 75 percent for large ones.

The practice kept businesses afloat for years but also allowed them to defer some fundamental changes needed to make them more competitive, like layoffs and price reductions. It also hurt tax revenues.

The comeback is on a small scale so far. The most recent statistics available, from November, showed that barter deals made up about 3 to 4 percent of total sales, according to the Russian Economic Barometer, an independent bulletin. Nevertheless, economists are taking note.

“Russians are so arrogant that they never cut prices,” said Vladimir Popov, a professor at Moscow’s New Economic School. By turning to barter systems during an economic downturn, he said, “you are hiding your head in the sand.”

It would be hard, however, to dissuade business owners who see barter as a point of light on a bleak financial horizon.

Among the most upbeat of them is Mr. Sterligov, who, just as the credit crunch brought most business deals to a halt, shoveled $13 million into the Anti-Crisis Settlement and Commodity Center.

Mr. Sterligov, 42, is one of the great characters of Russian capitalism. In his mid-20s, on the eve of the Soviet Union’s collapse, he was a freewheeling, chain-smoking commodities trader surrounded by leggy assistants.

But Mr. Sterligov sat out the oil-fueled prosperity of recent years. After a failed run against Vladimir V. Putin in the 2004 presidential election, he retreated to a log house outside Moscow, opting for the beard and boots of a Russian shepherd. In August, intimations of the financial crash lured him out of the woods.

He plans to use a computer database to create chains of six or seven enterprises having difficulty selling their products for cash, in which the last firm on the chain would pay the first in a single cash transaction.

It is the kind of multiparty barter that rose to prominence in the 1990s, when managers of factories across Russia devised complex barter chains to keep the maximum number of enterprises in business when none had cash to pay their bills. A computer, he said, can do the same job faster and more efficiently.

“What was in the past will remain in the past,” Mr. Sterligov said in an interview last month, from the 26th-floor suite he has rented in a Moscow high-rise. “We are making a step into the future.”

So far, economists doubt that barter will grow to the level it reached in the 1990s. Earlier in the transition to a market economy, industrialists still had little monetary stake in their businesses but were dependent on the prestige that went with executive positions, said Andrei Yakovlev of the Higher School of Economics here. They had little incentive to cut costs, and barter deals kept them going for five years, he said.

Now, business owners and managers “are really trying to reduce costs and reduce inefficiency,” Mr. Yakovlev said. Interest in barter, he said, is more likely to come from regional governments, which have the most to lose from high unemployment.

Barter is a side effect of tight monetary policy, said Mr. Popov, who is teaching at Carleton University in Ottawa. Russia is in the grip of a liquidity crisis. As in the mid-1990s, the government has made it a priority to shore up the economy by buying up rubles, hoping to avoid the panicky sell-off that comes with rapid devaluation. The ruble has gradually slid from 23.4 to the dollar in early August, before Russia’s war in Georgia, to 36.2 to the dollar last week.

As a result, the money supply continues to contract, and some enterprises turn to barter to survive. “We are stepping for the second time on the same rake,” Mr. Popov said. “The second time is a greater sin.”

Long-term macroeconomic trends, however, are the last thing manufacturers were thinking about in recent weeks.

The Hyundai factory in Taganrog, the southern seaport where Chekhov was born, rolled out a barter promotion on its Web site, offering to trade vehicles for “raw materials,” “high-tech equipment” or “other liquid goods, including finished products of various branches of industry.” Gleb Korotkov, a spokesman for the factory, said he could not be specific about what goods were meant, saying it was a “commercial secret.”

Barter deals seem to be spreading fastest in construction industries. Dmitri Smorodin, who runs a large St. Petersburg building firm, said he thought for two months before announcing in late January that he was willing to accept barter items — including food products — as payment for construction work.

He said he hoped that adopting the strategy early in the crisis would give him an edge over his competitors.

“Food we would happily accept, because it’s easy to sell,” he said. “Of course, money is always preferable.”

In contrast, Uralchem, a fertilizer producer, refused payment in grain and beef, because the company conforms to international financial reporting standards in its reports to shareholders, said Andrei Kocherov, a spokesman for Uralchem, which was founded in 2007. The modern accounting system would preclude barter, he said.

Meanwhile, in Bashkortostan, a republic in southwestern Russia, local development officials publicly encouraged businesses to develop barter chains.

Sergei Ryazanov, 30, a businessman from the Siberian city of Surgut, took out an advertisement a month ago offering to barter excess metal piping. So far, he has not been impressed by the offers he has received; he said people were not desperate enough to drop prices. He is looking for a truly liquid commodity, something universal, like gasoline. Even underwear, which, he said, “is much more liquid than automobiles.”

He was intrigued by Mr. Sterligov’s idea, though he questioned the wisdom of planning a career in barter. “It will take him a couple years to get it right,” Mr. Ryazanov said. “And then, in two years, liquidity will be back.”


More Articles in World » A version of this article appeared in print on February 8, 2009, on page A10 of the New York edition.
 
Even with Putin as Prime Minister/Premier (an article says he's PM but CIA Factbook says he's Premier), he's dangerously close to President Medvedev. Putin managed to convince Medvedev to extend the Presidential term from 4 to 6 years, this would allow Putin to come back into Presidential running. Putin isn't the greatest of Russian politicians, he's shady, mysterious and potentially lethal; sure, he was able to promote sports (development of the KHL - Kontinental Hockey League) and arts which brought a better sense of welcoming and friendliness to Russia's appearance.

With Medvedev being so easily manipulated by Putin, there's no telling what could happed. All of Medvedev's proposed plans of knocking out US Missile Defence systems in Eastern Europe by targeting Iskander nuclear-capable missiles at the radar stations in Poland and Czech Republic were actually the secret plans of Vladimir Putin. Putin muttered these words of "fighting off the American swine" when he first entered Presidency in May of 2000.

In mid-April, 2008, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Prime Minister Putin had given instructions to the federal government whereby Moscow would pursue economic, diplomatic, and administrative relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia as with the subjects of Russia. This was the reactionary plan to Georgia's massing military force that was preparing to invade the Republic of Abkhazia in an attempt to re-assimilate it back into Georgia (even though Abkhazia delcared independence along with Ossetia and Transnistria). Russia started deploying military forces into Abkhazia and Ossetia "as part of the peacekeeping force." What he was really doing is trying to, I guess... protect Russian interests in Abkhazia and Ossetia? Trying to assimilate ABKZ and OSTA into Russia as part of Putin and Medvedev's plan to create a "mini-USSR" along with Belarus.

Oh, I found it. South Ossetia (North Ossetia is still part of Russia) and Abkhazia were annexed by Russia as a result of the armed conflict with Georgia in August 2008.

I didn't follow Russia's affairs too closely over the years so there may be some inconsistencies in my text above.

But all in all, Russia as been falling apart ever since the end of the Soviet era.

/facepalm is all I really have to describe my feelings.

P.S.

Sounds kinda like Chechnya doesn't it? Someone wants independence from Russia but Russia won't allow it... hmm.... nah.
 
Russia is hard hit by the economic crisis. This is a dangerous development, since economic unrest has caused much trouble in the past (the "October Revolution" was sparked by another economic crisis, as well as the fall of the Soviet Union), and the regime has already demonstrated a willingness to use external adventures as a means of distracting the population:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/17/russia-global-economy-recession/print

Moscow starts to shut up shopSoaring unemployment and a shrinking economy point to long winters of discontent
Kathryn Hopkins in Moscow
The Guardian, Tuesday 17 March 2009

Four decades after her father wrote Back in the USSR, Stella McCartney is shutting up shop in Moscow. Designers such as Lanvin and Alexander McQueen have followed suit. Several stores that were once packed with fur-clad Russians fighting to pick up the latest western trends now stand empty.

Only six months ago, wealthy Muscovites were spending their petro-dollars at GUM, the luxury department store on Red Square, but as oil prices dropped so did their bank balances. Last weekend there were more shop assistants than customers in nearly all of the centre's designer boutiques.

The city's notorious traffic has also freed up significantly over the past year and there are visibly fewer 4x4s and limos blocking Moscow's roads. "It has become much easier to drive through the city. Routes that took one hour last year take 30 minutes," said Moscow-based political analyst Georgy Bovt.

Russia's dependency on oil is pushing the country's economy into a tailspin. Oil peaked at $147 a barrel in July but has since plunged as low as $35 a barrel. As a result of the plummeting oil price and the global financial crisis, gross domestic product shrank by 8.8% in the 12 months to January, the rouble has lost one-third of its value since September and unemployment is expected to rise to 10 million by the end of the year. The Kremlin has spent more than $200bn of its reserves to cushion the devaluation of the rouble and avoid public panic.

Neil Shearing, emerging Europe economist at consultants Capital Economics, believes the situation is going to get much worse. "The news from Russia has gone from bad to worse in recent weeks. The economy looks likely to contract by 5% this year, which would be close to the drop in output witnessed during the 1998 rouble crisis," he said, referring to the year when the government defaulted on its debts, sending shockwaves through the global financial system. "In contrast to the 1998 crisis, a weak external environment makes a sharp bounceback in growth unlikely."

"The situation is worse than at the beginning of the 1990s," said Ilya Roytman, president of IBR Consulting in Moscow, which helps companies such as Nestlé set up shop in Russia. "Before it was just in Russia. Around Russia there was a stable economic climate which helped us. But now there is a global economic crisis and because many governments have protectionist values it will not be possible to borrow resources."

Unemployment is widely expected to soar to 12% this year from 6.3% in 2008 as firms struggle to access finance. "This will spell disaster for an economy in which private consumption accounts for over half of GDP," said Shearing. About 500,000 Russians are waiting to be paid wages which are late and since inflation is running at 13%, their purchasing power is slipping rapidly.

Stephen Dalziel, executive director of the Russo-British Chamber of Commerce (RBCC), believes that the financial crisis in Russia is much worse than in Britain.

"I think that the problem is that they were unprepared to the point of being arrogant," he said. "When sub-prime happened in 2007 they were arrogant because they thought it was a western thing. They said it wasn't like 1998 and then it suddenly hit them."

He believes that the situation for businesses is far worse than 1998.

The government is "too dependent on natural resources, which is foolish", he said. "They do nothing to encourage an increase in small and medium enterprises. Hopefully this time they will understand how SMEs develop the backbone of an economy. They have paid it lip service, but haven't done anything."

He said that Russian companies were "extremely worried" about the economic climate and are making big cutbacks.

Bovt believes that the problem has been exacerbated by prime minister Vladimir Putin's focus on large corporate national champions, and that he has "suppressed" economic activity for small and medium businesses. "Poor people are just unemployed with no initiatives to start their own business," he said.

Outside Moscow and St Petersburg, there is a potentially more serious problem looming. Russia has many so-called monocities, where most of the town's population is employed by one industry such as car production or commodities output.

"The biggest problem for now is monocities," Bovt said. "One example is Tolyatti in the Volga, where about 60% of the population are involved in Lada production. The plant is in trouble so most of the population of the city will be unemployed."

With mass unemployment could come mass unrest. Several demonstrations have already taken place as hundreds of thousands of people have lost their jobs or had their salaries cut, but the authorities have been quick to shut them down.

"Authorities are absolutely terrified of social unrest, the idea of a spontaneous explosion of unrest," said Dalziel. "If there were to be a mass demonstration somewhere, there could be a domino effect. I really don't think anyone in authority knows what to do."
 
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