Iran Super Thread- Merged
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sean m said:
But, from an Israeli perspective, not attacking Iran also has consequences. The Israelis will have to weigh all the consequences, including (further) annoying damned near everyone in the world, and do what they think best protects and promotes their vital interests.
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sean m said:
I have to disagree. The Israeli intellegence community is amongst the best in the world. Israel seldom makes any sort of move without thinking a few plays ahead. If Israel went in, against those odds, it's likely because they approached it with their usual "it matters not how hard this is going to be, but it has to be done" attittude. They have never shirked their responsibilty, no matter the odds, world opinion or consequences.
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Well how do they differentiate that, their not in the supreme leaders head,as I said prior the president is not the top level of government, so you cannot make a decision based on what he says. Unless they have their ppl in contact with top level guys in iran they can never know. they have to review what are teh concequences for iran if they do it, and there are a lot.
E.R. Campbell said:
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You can be the best and still make mistakes, this aint rolling the dice at a casino. Mi6 and C.I.A are probably the best intelligence agencies in the world and I doubt they foresaw the islamic revolution in Iran after the coup in the 1950's.
recceguy said:
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But at least they got the WMDs in Iraq right! I mean...uummm...[crickets]...
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Mossad knows what they are doing. If you look at what is publicly known about them, it speaks for itself. The CIA and SIS (MI6 fell into disuse a long time ago except for popular culture) are very capable of course, and you should easily assume they had knowledge of the Islamic Revolution. Just because you don't see them sending superninjaJTF2spies that end up on the BBC, CBC or CNN doesn't mean that reports were not generated and sent up the proper channels.
It's probably safe to assume there are many pages of classified documents regarding the Islamic Revolution, it would just take a few decades of intense scrutiny before they are considered for release to the public. You need to realize something Sean - if an Intelligence Agency is doing its job, you won't know it. There were several investigative journalism articles as well you can probably find via Google that detail the support Pahlavi obtained from the CIA over several decades.
It's probably safe to assume there are many pages of classified documents regarding the Islamic Revolution, it would just take a few decades of intense scrutiny before they are considered for release to the public. You need to realize something Sean - if an Intelligence Agency is doing its job, you won't know it. There were several investigative journalism articles as well you can probably find via Google that detail the support Pahlavi obtained from the CIA over several decades.
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sean m said:
The best intelligence services consist of a few very smart people, scholars, really, making highly educated, informed estimates. Most intelligence services consist of large numbers of quite ordinary people, aided by massive and powerful computer systems making less educated, ill informed guesses.
You say you are interested in Humint. The Israelis are reputed to be very good at that. They have some advantages. Israel is a polyglot, multi-ethnic society. There are many Israelis who are native to the enemy countries. They can go in and melt into the host society. But perhaps what the Israelis have done best is to go back to first principles, to Walsingham, and use corruption whenever possible.
Sir Francis Walsingham
Poor old Pope Sixtus V amd King Philip II of Spain; like almost every modern Middle Eastern 'leader' every time they met with their inner council, their most trusted advisors, they knew (they thought they knew) that at least one was a traitor, in Walsingham's pay - perhaps due to simple greed, perhaps because Walsingham had, somehow, compromised them. It is a way better technique than having specialists and analysts and massive computers making guesses. It doesn't really matter a whole lot if the Israelis can do what so many Arabs and Iranians believe; what matters is that Arab and Iranian leaders do believe and they are nervous; they cannot really trust anyone. It compromises decision making. If it's not great intelligence then it is near perfect psychological warfare.
The Israelis have enjoyed many intelligence successes - against Arabs, Americans, Iranians, the French and so on. It is
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Of course, but you would have to be 100% sure that what happened then would not happen now. I am sorry if I sounded nieve before nieolotithium I was really interested and was being a fool, I apologise again. Of course they are documents and you are probably very correct in saying that Pahlavi is supported by the Americans and others. Now if we are talking about mounting attack the nations would have to do a number of things ( or if they have the info put it together cohevsively); analyze the actual support of the goverment by the people, locate key military targets, try and determine if they are anyone in the government or military that can be turned.
Neolithium said:
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You are very right, it is the same with all nations in the west too. Canada is so diverse, we have people from all over the world, who can blend in to society in their countries of origin. The lucky thing about being canadians is that people around the world hold less of a grudge against us, which can work to our advantage. Interesting of you to bring up Walsingham, just in the movie about Queen Elizabeth you see what a man he was, the connections he had. Brilliant mant, one of the best intelligence agents ever. In the area the Israelis are in they need to have top notch intelligence. That recent event in Dubai proves their excellence. Yes but they can still make mistakes as I aid previously you would have to be almost 100% accurate what you are doing. There is also something called being a double agent or counter espionage, the israelis cannot be sure their contacts are accurate. The arab states are nervous but so are the israelis, one mess up this big for them and spells huge trouble
E.R. Campbell said:The best intelligence services consist of a few very smart people, scholars, really, making highly educated, informed estimates. Most intelligence services consist of large numbers of quite ordinary people, aided by massive and powerful computer systems making less educated, ill informed guesses.
You say you are interested in Humint. The Israelis are reputed to be very good at that. They have some advantages. Israel is a polyglot, multi-ethnic society. There are many Israelis who are native to the enemy countries. They can go in and melt into the host society. But perhaps what the Israelis have done best is to go back to first principles, to Walsingham, and use corruption whenever possible.
Sir Francis Walsingham
Poor old Pope Sixtus V amd King Philip II of Spain; like almost every modern Middle Eastern 'leader' every time they met with their inner council, their most trusted advisors, they knew (they thought they knew) that at least one was a traitor, in Walsingham's pay - perhaps due to simple greed, perhaps because Walsingham had, somehow, compromised them. It is a way better technique than having specialists and analysts and massive computers making guesses. It doesn't really matter a whole lot if the Israelis can do what so many Arabs and Iranians believe; what matters is that Arab and Iranian leaders do believe and they are nervous; they cannot really trust anyone. It compromises decision making. If it's not great intelligence then it is near perfect psychological warfare.
The Israelis have enjoyed many intelligence successes - against Arabs, Americans, Iranians, the French and so on. It isprobablevirtually certain that they have suffered from many failures, too. I'm guessing that they learn from their mistakes.
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:deadhorse:
I'm just going to shut up now before I end up posting something that would get me instantly banned.
I'm just going to shut up now before I end up posting something that would get me instantly banned.
op:
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Almost!
Now its a balmy 24C inside. The cats and I are happy.
Its the tropics afterall ;D and winter lasts 4-5 weeks at best.
Honestly, anything under 20C and I shiver, and to think I spent 35 years of my life in Canada!
Tea tonight is pizza from Eagle Boys!!! Bacon double cheese!
Cheers,
Wes
Now its a balmy 24C inside. The cats and I are happy.
Its the tropics afterall ;D and winter lasts 4-5 weeks at best.
Honestly, anything under 20C and I shiver, and to think I spent 35 years of my life in Canada!
Tea tonight is pizza from Eagle Boys!!! Bacon double cheese!
Cheers,
Wes
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Had an FTX last week, +31 in Borden (and in the sand dunes as well).
WRT Intelligence, it actually matters little how smart (or dumb) your agency is; their job is to collect and analyze information and present a picture to the leadership. The leadership then takes what they want from the picture and makes their plans. You might recall that just before Operation "Market-Garden" the intelligence cell identified the location of II.SS-Panzerkorps right inside the drop zone, but their warnings went unheeded (or actually brushed off, especially as depicted in the movie version), much to the horror of the British 1rst Airborne Division who had to deal with the results.
Intelligence also has lots of political implications, and the agencies themselves are politicized. The National Intelligence Estimate which claimed Iran was not developing nuclear weapons was almost certainly wrong (and most elements have since been redacted in a piecemeal fashion), the entire purpose of that seems to have been to cripple the Bush administration's ability to deal with the issue. Given Ba'athist WMD was considered a credible threat by most of the Western intelligence community throughout the late 1990's (and President Bill Clinton warned of the dangers of Saddam Hussein's WMD program in 1998), one can hardly suggest the political leadership failed to act on the information presented, indeed prudence and past precedent suggested the Bush administration did exactly the right thing based on what they knew. (The Democrats in the House and Congress have been very hypocritical about the issue; the intelligence committee has access to the same information the President does, and came to the same conclusions) .
What the various intelligence agencies know about Iran's nuclear ambitions, internal state of affairs, resistance or support of the theocracy matters little if their leadership is unwilling or unable to formulate and execute plans based on the information. Even Walsingham needed approval and support of his Sovereign to execute his plans, in a much less bureaucratic age he had the distinct advantage of direct access to the executive, and a far better ability to control the dissemination of information and disinformation than most modern practitioners.
WRT Intelligence, it actually matters little how smart (or dumb) your agency is; their job is to collect and analyze information and present a picture to the leadership. The leadership then takes what they want from the picture and makes their plans. You might recall that just before Operation "Market-Garden" the intelligence cell identified the location of II.SS-Panzerkorps right inside the drop zone, but their warnings went unheeded (or actually brushed off, especially as depicted in the movie version), much to the horror of the British 1rst Airborne Division who had to deal with the results.
Intelligence also has lots of political implications, and the agencies themselves are politicized. The National Intelligence Estimate which claimed Iran was not developing nuclear weapons was almost certainly wrong (and most elements have since been redacted in a piecemeal fashion), the entire purpose of that seems to have been to cripple the Bush administration's ability to deal with the issue. Given Ba'athist WMD was considered a credible threat by most of the Western intelligence community throughout the late 1990's (and President Bill Clinton warned of the dangers of Saddam Hussein's WMD program in 1998), one can hardly suggest the political leadership failed to act on the information presented, indeed prudence and past precedent suggested the Bush administration did exactly the right thing based on what they knew. (The Democrats in the House and Congress have been very hypocritical about the issue; the intelligence committee has access to the same information the President does, and came to the same conclusions) .
What the various intelligence agencies know about Iran's nuclear ambitions, internal state of affairs, resistance or support of the theocracy matters little if their leadership is unwilling or unable to formulate and execute plans based on the information. Even Walsingham needed approval and support of his Sovereign to execute his plans, in a much less bureaucratic age he had the distinct advantage of direct access to the executive, and a far better ability to control the dissemination of information and disinformation than most modern practitioners.
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Russia to go ahead with its S300 sale to Iran?
Iran Press TV link
In spite of the update below:
source
Iran Press TV link
In spite of the update below:
source
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