In April of 2009, DRDC CORA received a request for operational research support from A3 Fighter
at 1 Canadian Air Division. The object of the project was to determine the optimum manning levels
for a tactical fighter squadron, focusing on the number of pilots required to meet a number of
specified tasks.
The tasks ranged in duration from as little as 2 to 14 days for a point defence scenario, up to
6 months for some international commitments. The intensity of operations for the international
scenarios went from 12 hours per day, 5 days per week to 24 hours per day, 7 days per week. The
initial request envisioned a highly detailed assessment incorporating pilot unavailability due to a
variety of reasons, including but not limited to professional development courses, parental leave,
and other leave types. In the end, a simplified view of the problem was taken. Individual scenarios
were modelled using a stochastic simulation of personnel (un)availability due to illness. The chance
of meeting the scenario requirements was then assessed as a function of the total number of pilots.
The request coincided with a task the author received from The Technical Co-operation Program
(TTCP) AER TP-1 to investigate this sort of problem. This report is presented in fulfillment of both
tasks.
The initial results of this project were communicated to the sponsor in a letter report in June 2009.
Following this, additional work was done, expanding the range of situations considered by incorporating
into the simulations the effects of different aircraft serviceability rates, and considering under
what conditions the assumptions used for the simulation would continue to be valid.
The scenarios under consideration (described below) are relatively simple; it is possible to determine
the minimum number of aircrew required using a simple spreadsheet and applying the known sortie
requirements and aircrew flight rules. The real problem is not how many personnel are required in
the ideal case, but how many are required to cover illness and other unforeseen tasks and events that
take personnel away from flying duties. There is also the matter of ensuring that the crew rest and
maximum accumulated flying time regulations are adhered to. However, it is the author’s conjecture
that manning rates sufficient to guarantee that the planned sorties can be performed, given a certain
rate of pilot absence due to illness, will render this last concern moot in most cases.
Scenarios
The following scenarios were examined:
1. A continuous (24 hour) Air Patrol over a domestic location during the month of January.
Patrol durations of 1, 3, 7 and 14 days are considered.
DRDC CORA TM 2010-217 iii
2. A continuous (24 hour) Air Patrol over a domestic location during the month of July.
Patrol durations of 1, 3, 7 and 14 days are considered.
3. An international deployment 6 months in duration, during which 12/5 operations are
maintained continuously. Deployments of 6 and 12 CF188 are considered for both summer
and winter health conditions, together with a variety of mission parameters.
4. An international deployment 6 months in duration, during which 16/7 operations are
maintained continuously. Deployments of 6 and 12 CF188 are considered for both summer
and winter health conditions, together with a variety of mission parameters.
5. An international deployment 6 months in duration, during which 24/7 operations are
maintained continuously. Deployments of 6 and 12 CF188 are considered for both summer
and winter health conditions, together with a variety of mission parameters.
All scenarios were examined using constant daily sorties rates roughly equivalent to 70% for the
first sortie of the day and 50% for subsequent sorties. To explore the effects of different aircraft
serviceability rates, scenario 3 was re-examined using simulated daily aircraft availability with four
different sets of rates.
Results
The main outcome of the study is a set of graphs and tables relating personnel requirements by
scenario to the degree of sortie completion, the season, and the probability of success. Success
is defined as having sufficient available personnel over the scenario to meet or exceed a specified
sortie completion rate ....
