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A scary strategic problem to ponder.
Recently I read a report on the status of oil reserves and consumption rates. Like many, I have never been very concerned about gas and oil as there seems to be a lot available and it didn't really seem to me to be something to worry about. I have regarded alarmist comments in the popular press about oil and energy sources as mere conspiracy theories. I was wrong. There is a problem with oil and it really is something to be concerned about. Here's a synopsis of the situation:
The OPEC countries and especially Saudi Arabia have the largest reserves of oil. Other nations, particularly Russia also have large reserves. Canada doesn't have huge actual oil reserves, but our tar sands and oil put us in second place in the world after Saudi Arabia for being able to produce oil, even if the process is expensive.
According to the unpublished report and my own supplementary investigation (do a google search for "world without oil" to get a taste) in the best case scenario, including maximum, not actual, reserve estimates at just current consumption rates, the world will be out of accessible oil in 50 years. This time frame doesn't consider increasing consumption. Mid-point of oil reserves will occur at around 2007! From then on, oil demand will go up and the existing stocks will go down. Oil is not a renewable resource; it doesn't grow back, so when it is gone it is gone.
So what's the strategic problem? Well to spell it out, there will be considerably more pressure on existing oil in the short term. There will be conflict over existing oil reserves. The United States, China and Europe are huge consumers of oil and they do not have reserves that will support their needs. Countries that have oil will be under tremendous pressure to provide it and there will not be enough to meet needs. We have oil and others will want it. Selling Canadian oil to China will not be popular with our southern neighbours. The cars and trucks we drive are part of the problem, but the biggest consumer of oil isn't the automobile, it is the industrial and agricultural base for which we rely on everything we have. We have more than just a military and strategic problem and the solutions are not apparent.
There is some discussion on alternative energy sources, such as solar power, hydrogen fuel cells, nuclear energy, wind and tide power, etc. The problem is that all of these ideas rely heavily on, you guessed it - oil. In ancient times sources of minerals to make metal were relatively accessible and surface mining was used to gather the resources. Those non-renewable resources are gone and we now rely heavily on mining. Mining cannot happen without oil. Even the hydrogen fuel cells require platinum to work. Platinum needs to be mined. Powering resource extraction equipment from chainsaws to feller-bunchers and mining equipment all requires oil. Solar power, batteries and wind power simply cannot power logging trucks or very much industrial equipment. Even agriculture cannot produce enough oil to replace some of uses of the fossil fuels without dramatic changes that would seriously impact the food supply. There will be no trains, no planes, no automobiles. There will be extensive reworking of scrap metal.
When the oil is gone, there will not be any means of supporting the infrastructure that currently exists. That is, no transportation of food, no manufacturing of metal, or plastics, no mining, no ships, no air travel, etc. This lack (not shortage) of oil will have a dramatic impact on how people live and interact. It will affect all aspects of civilization as we know it. It will dramatically affect world population. It is a problem for us, not in 50 years when there is none left, but probably in the next 10 to 15 years as it becomes clear to people and governments that there won't be any more.
In a period shorter than the time since World 2 to now we will be out of oil. Imagine what it will be like in 20 to 30 years as the situation deteriorates. What will our country look like? Will we have one? We have some serious challenges to overcome, not the least of which is what our defence policy should be in the light of this situation.
But don't believe me. Look into it yourself.
(edited to correct sentence error)
Recently I read a report on the status of oil reserves and consumption rates. Like many, I have never been very concerned about gas and oil as there seems to be a lot available and it didn't really seem to me to be something to worry about. I have regarded alarmist comments in the popular press about oil and energy sources as mere conspiracy theories. I was wrong. There is a problem with oil and it really is something to be concerned about. Here's a synopsis of the situation:
The OPEC countries and especially Saudi Arabia have the largest reserves of oil. Other nations, particularly Russia also have large reserves. Canada doesn't have huge actual oil reserves, but our tar sands and oil put us in second place in the world after Saudi Arabia for being able to produce oil, even if the process is expensive.
According to the unpublished report and my own supplementary investigation (do a google search for "world without oil" to get a taste) in the best case scenario, including maximum, not actual, reserve estimates at just current consumption rates, the world will be out of accessible oil in 50 years. This time frame doesn't consider increasing consumption. Mid-point of oil reserves will occur at around 2007! From then on, oil demand will go up and the existing stocks will go down. Oil is not a renewable resource; it doesn't grow back, so when it is gone it is gone.
So what's the strategic problem? Well to spell it out, there will be considerably more pressure on existing oil in the short term. There will be conflict over existing oil reserves. The United States, China and Europe are huge consumers of oil and they do not have reserves that will support their needs. Countries that have oil will be under tremendous pressure to provide it and there will not be enough to meet needs. We have oil and others will want it. Selling Canadian oil to China will not be popular with our southern neighbours. The cars and trucks we drive are part of the problem, but the biggest consumer of oil isn't the automobile, it is the industrial and agricultural base for which we rely on everything we have. We have more than just a military and strategic problem and the solutions are not apparent.
There is some discussion on alternative energy sources, such as solar power, hydrogen fuel cells, nuclear energy, wind and tide power, etc. The problem is that all of these ideas rely heavily on, you guessed it - oil. In ancient times sources of minerals to make metal were relatively accessible and surface mining was used to gather the resources. Those non-renewable resources are gone and we now rely heavily on mining. Mining cannot happen without oil. Even the hydrogen fuel cells require platinum to work. Platinum needs to be mined. Powering resource extraction equipment from chainsaws to feller-bunchers and mining equipment all requires oil. Solar power, batteries and wind power simply cannot power logging trucks or very much industrial equipment. Even agriculture cannot produce enough oil to replace some of uses of the fossil fuels without dramatic changes that would seriously impact the food supply. There will be no trains, no planes, no automobiles. There will be extensive reworking of scrap metal.
When the oil is gone, there will not be any means of supporting the infrastructure that currently exists. That is, no transportation of food, no manufacturing of metal, or plastics, no mining, no ships, no air travel, etc. This lack (not shortage) of oil will have a dramatic impact on how people live and interact. It will affect all aspects of civilization as we know it. It will dramatically affect world population. It is a problem for us, not in 50 years when there is none left, but probably in the next 10 to 15 years as it becomes clear to people and governments that there won't be any more.
In a period shorter than the time since World 2 to now we will be out of oil. Imagine what it will be like in 20 to 30 years as the situation deteriorates. What will our country look like? Will we have one? We have some serious challenges to overcome, not the least of which is what our defence policy should be in the light of this situation.
But don't believe me. Look into it yourself.
(edited to correct sentence error)
