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El Nino only redistributes energy it is not the source
2024 Wildfire Season
- Thread starter Cloud Cover
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Brad Sallows
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Sure. There are two "deltas" to consider: the "delta" of energy, and the "delta" of how much is redistributed, which depends on how pronounced and in which direction the oscillation is. My claim is that the latter is so much greater than the former that changing the former won't do much. And we can't change the latter (and we'd be stupid to try).
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youre suggesting that EL Nino is redistributing more energy than the energy imbalance?
Brad Sallows
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I'm suggesting that the change from highest to lowest amount redistributed is greater than the amount added by climate warming. Somewhat analogously, I'd be more concerned by the rise and fall of a tide than a couple of millimetres of sea level increase per year.
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I hadn't seen the modular systems before, thank for that!
Have no real dog in the fight for the modular air drop system, just think it's a generally good idea to have something that can readily expand your capability by having something you can put into rear loading planes that are fairly ubiquitous and more or less kick out the back (although I'm sure it's a lot more than that).
The cardboard one seems like it's generally useful in that it's an inexpensive per unit cost and requires zero changes to the actual plane, while being easy to flatpack and transport to site. Imagine there will be some work to figure out the differences for altitude, speed etc but from the test results I've seen so far they've already got that down fairly well for the dispersion. For the additives you can change the mixture as well depending on the effects, and with the gel product you can do things like make it thicker to try and protect tree tops a bit more or make it thinner to have more run down to ground level, so pretty interesting.
foresterab
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I personally really like the concept of the MAFF's unit as they are a quick exchange process allowing a C-130 to move from a cargo hauler or people hauler to an air tanker. And have proven the technology on extended multiple day deployments.
Don't get me wrong...ideally this is a civilian capacity and the RCAF I would rather have evacuating people under low vis instrumentation than competing with civilian and/or provincial owned resources water bombing. Unfortunately finding the right airframes/spares/ and getting a longer term contract is a tough combination for civilian contractors.
Alot of the L-188 Electra's (Civilian P-3's) have had extensive re-builds and the airframes older (Convair CV-580's and -340's) are well on their way out. So now it's a question of replacement options - some of which are built designed here in Canada - for the next generation. RJ-85's seem to be popular and the Dash 8 -Q400's were used here last summer along with Coulson's C-130's.
foresterab
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And we're off....
edmonton.ctvnews.ca
Alberta moves up start date for wildfire season, fire season now underway
Alberta is declaring an early start to the 2024 wildfire season. The province, announced Tuesday the fire season is now underway as a result of warmer-than-normal temperatures and below-average precipitation.
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I think any tool you can have in your pocket is a great one.
The sort of interesting thing here is it is on a whack of different platforms, and from what I understand there isn't really any reconfiguration, so you might be able to fly in to pick people up, do a drop en route, then head back with passengers.
But if I was a normal cargo hauler with some compatible air frame, seems like a good way to add some capacity to help surge, and go back to normal flying outside the off season.
So probably less effective then a dedicated add on like MAFF, or an actual waterbomber, but better than no capacity, and seems like a good way to really rapidly scale up using a whack of different air frames.
Again, no dog in this fight, but when no mods are needed, and can accomodate the following ones below and other planes, seems like a good option. And because you can mix and match you can have different cargos, so seems fairly versatile.
Looking forward to seeing the EU testing, but from a non-air worthiness guy seems like a good option to add to the arsenal.
The sort of interesting thing here is it is on a whack of different platforms, and from what I understand there isn't really any reconfiguration, so you might be able to fly in to pick people up, do a drop en route, then head back with passengers.
But if I was a normal cargo hauler with some compatible air frame, seems like a good way to add some capacity to help surge, and go back to normal flying outside the off season.
So probably less effective then a dedicated add on like MAFF, or an actual waterbomber, but better than no capacity, and seems like a good way to really rapidly scale up using a whack of different air frames.
Again, no dog in this fight, but when no mods are needed, and can accomodate the following ones below and other planes, seems like a good option. And because you can mix and match you can have different cargos, so seems fairly versatile.
- The Guardian can be dropped from any rear-loading aircraft including:
- C-27J, C-130, and C-17, C-295, CN-235, C-123, CV-22, CH-47, CH-53
Looking forward to seeing the EU testing, but from a non-air worthiness guy seems like a good option to add to the arsenal.
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ConAir Dash 8-400 MRE is an interesting aircraft, didn’t know they had that one.
haven't seen any results yet from OW's promised fire fighters yet nor have I heard of any Canadian orders for DHC515's yet. In fact the first 24 a/c off the new line are all destined for Europe. The earliest we can get any is 2029 unless we can buy up someone else's spot. Are C130's civil certified or is there a lengthy process involved in military to civil conversion although how often does an airworthy C130 come available? For conversion the DH8 and the ATR series of a/c are about the only thing on the market. So I suspect we will see more wringing of hands by the politicians along with impossible promises and of course the traditional it's Steven's fault explanation.
foresterab
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The CL-515 is still a concept and while the -215 and -415's are good planes they also fill only part of the role. For example they can haul some people but not alot due to the water tanks and scooping design.
Coulson has 3? C-130's certified for civilian use and is trying to source more as I understand it. They have contracts in Australia for seasonal use but currently no Canadian contracts that I am aware of...not that they don't ask. They do provide heavy lift helicopters but that's different from tankers and the Martin Mars hasn't been under contract for several years now.
There are occasionally some C-130's that come up...and they have a long history of being used going back to the old C-130A models in the US but the challange with many of the military surplus units is ensuring enough service records exist for not just airframe but also parts used to get certify...and its not a fast process. Even the US who has Federal to State agreements has had issue with the transfer of C-130s to the USFS although there are also many other sides to that story.
The Dash 8 Q400 (Conair), the RJ-85/BAe 146 conversions (see Conair/Neptune Aviation) are starting to show up to replace the older frames. AirSpray was re-building entire wing assemblies to address issues with the L-188 fleet and Buffalo Airways runs a mix of Territory owned and company owned airframes.
Coulson has been growing both their US, Canadian and Australian presense. See here for the US fleet - not all of which are in Canada. Fleet — COULSON AVIATION
Any then you get into the Air Trackers...
Big issue is no one airframe is good for everything. Having a group of 4-5 AT-802's coming in tree top can be great for precision bombing but they don't work well if you don't have airstrips (there is a scooper version though). CL-415's are great if you have scooper lakes allowing for fast drop cycles...I've seen under 5 minutes for drop, exit, load, approach and drop....but they're slower and lower capacity than some of the others. Electras or RJ85's are much faster and are good for long line drops and/or water slugs to break the tree canopy. And then there is what they use in the USA where frankly we don't have the Stratigic Air Command runways to operate off of so don't use the DC-10's, -737's, MD-80's in use there.
Booter
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I was in a meeting on this very recently. Some of the fires that were burning underground over the winter are already coming out. Which is early…And we're off....
Alberta moves up start date for wildfire season, fire season now underway
Alberta is declaring an early start to the 2024 wildfire season. The province, announced Tuesday the fire season is now underway as a result of warmer-than-normal temperatures and below-average precipitation.
It’s going to be spicy out on the firebreaks this year. Are you in a particular zone Foresterab?
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Several times last year I saw white and blue Hercules here in BC last summer flying up the Okanagan valley. Who owns those? I assume they were hauling gear for fire fighting up north.
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It is nearly impossible to get Transport Canada to consider civil registration of ex-military aircraft. The last time they did it was for Trackers (maybe Cosmos, too) in the 1990s and have refused to consider it since,
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Sometimes, you will N- Registered (ie, US) aircraft working Canadian fires.
daftandbarmy
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Holdover fires aplenty...
Wildfires that went dormant over the winter have once again moved above ground, producing visible smoke and smouldering, the B.C. Wildfire Service says. According to the service, the "holdover fires" are primarily in the Prince George Fire Centre. Joel Ballard has more.
'Holdover fires' producing smoke again: B.C. Wildfire Service
Wildfires that went dormant over the winter have once again moved above ground, producing visible smoke and smouldering, the B.C. Wildfire Service says. According to the service, the "holdover fires" are primarily in the Prince George Fire Centre. Joel Ballard has more.
foresterab
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Might have been one of the Coulson C-130. I didn't see it but it was active in May/June in Alberta. I'm not aware of any blue/white color schemes off the top of my head that would match Coulson Aviation to bring another C-130 airtanker online this summer - Skies Mag. See Tanker #132
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Only airframes I saw in the Kelowna area last summer were a couple of old Convair CV-580's occasionally, 3 or 4 Air Tractor AT-802F's and lots of bucket helos. Not impressive for the scale of the fire, although the smoke got so bad that aircraft could not fly safely.
Surprised that COULSON AVIATION is a BC company.
Surprised that COULSON AVIATION is a BC company.
foresterab
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Was there at Kelowna too...on holidays though. Not going to speak on tactics as I was not involved and don't know enough about what was going on in BC at that exact time.
The Convair CV-580's still do good service and frankly some of the larger airframes like the Convair are nice in the mountains as they are able to handle the ridge/air pressure/wind effects easier than smaller planes like the AT-802's. Again a mix depending on need....but I'll take tankers over packing it on my back any day. Unfortunately when you have a major crown fire...not much you're going to do with aircraft alone which is when tactics may change or capacity to be effective may be exceeded. Plus they are generally not equipped for low vision/instrumentation so smoke issues are real.
That being said there is scale of fire in terms of size...Kelowna was no where near the biggest in BC at the same time (Donnie Creek in NE BC), community risk (it was right in the community), and impact potential (extremely high not just to the community but to region). Small complex fires can be way more impactful than huge fires.
This is a good example from the US...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Fire. 2440 ha or 6000 acres and over 1,000 homes lost and two people killed. Slave Lake Alberta in 2011 was only 4700 ha and affected 520 homes. 2011 Slave Lake wildfire - Wikipedia
I think we can move the fire season start date back a few weeks after the snow dump we had last night. The forecast said 25 cm and I believe it. I was out snow blowing the sidewalks for some of my neighbors this morning and the snow on the sidewalks was higher than my snowblower discharge in places. I don't often need a 2 stage snow blower in Edmonton but it would have been nice this morning.And we're off....
Alberta moves up start date for wildfire season, fire season now underway
Alberta is declaring an early start to the 2024 wildfire season. The province, announced Tuesday the fire season is now underway as a result of warmer-than-normal temperatures and below-average precipitation.
