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Most recent tangible example - think Libya - all the various clans/regions started looking to either breakaway or gain more autonomy - could easily happen throughout all of Russia.
Ukraine - Superthread
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This is not in our best interests - too many nucs to be accounted for, lots of axes to grind throughout that whole area, leads to a bi-polar world of the 'West' vs China.
Da_man
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We do need to prepare for the dissolution of the russian federation ASAP.
We need to start stockpiling sparkling wine, party hats and blow rolls.
I'm not seeing JT taking any initiative on that and I fear some people might be left without appetizers and party accessories.
We need to start stockpiling sparkling wine, party hats and blow rolls.
I'm not seeing JT taking any initiative on that and I fear some people might be left without appetizers and party accessories.
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The Roman Empire / Byzantine Empire / Holy Roman Empire / Unholy non-Roman non-Empire lasted a lot longer as a fragmented collection of city-states than it ever did as a unitary state. For that matter so did the separate islands of Great Britain and of Ireland.
There is a different kind of stability to be found in constant bush league warfare. And a different kind of security. More risk of individual death. Less risk of annihilation.
Edit: Modern examples - The Balkans, Cyprus, The Caucasus, Israel, The Congo, Iran-Iraq, .... Ukraine.
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daftandbarmy
Army.ca Dinosaur
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"Dictators ride to and fro on tigers from which they dare not dismount. And the tigers are getting hungry."
- Winston Churchill (While England Slept, 1938)
OldSolduer
Army.ca Myth
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Civil wars are often the most brutal wars. Rwanda comes to mind as well.
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French General Michel Yakovleff considers Ukraine's army the best in Europe
At the beginning of the full-scale war of the russian federation against Ukraine, few people believed in the victory of Ukraine since the russian armed forces were considered almost invincible as the "second army of the world" for a long time. But for more than a year of military operations, Ukrainian soldiers have been convincing with their deals that the Armed Forces of Ukraine is the best army in Europe.
The French general, ex-deputy commander of NATO forces in Europe, Michel Yakovleff, said this in an interview on the YouTube channel of former naval aviation crew member Xavier Tytelman.Yakovleff also named several scenarios for the end of the war.
According to Yakovleff, in the future, the processes taking place inside the military formation of the Russian Federation will lead to an even more deplorable condition. And this will prevent it from becoming a powerful army. Instead, he says, the russian military will only be able to defend itself.
According to the expert, artificial military formations such as private armies lead to this. They only complicate the coordination of units of the occupying forces.
Michel Yakovleff also stated that there are three scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine:
- the victory of Ukraine;
- the victory of russia;
- the halting of both armies on those borders that they could capture or reconquer.
The ex-deputy commander of NATO forces in Europe believes that the announcement of another mobilization or the recruitment of mercenaries for the "Wagner" Private Military Company (a network of mercenaries, or a de facto private army of russian president Vladimir Putin – ed.) without solving the existing problems will not help the russian federation to defeat Ukraine.
The general stressed that the smaller Ukrainian army contrasts the quantity of human resources with the quality. So, in the end, Ukraine will return all its territories to the last kilometer, together with Crimea and Donbas. Moreover, it is a condition for lasting peace.
BLUF for Canadian Army Future Structure
the smaller Ukrainian army contrasts the quantity of human resources with the quality
the russian army must show the required level of military professionalism, including target selection, logistics, fire coordination, quality of equipment, and troop interaction
I take the quality vs quantity issue to be more of a morale issue than one of professionalism although the Ukrainians win on points on that as well. Wagner's PMC, even if it was good, could not match the level of commitment to the struggle of the Ukrainians.
And that has implications for all armies. No matter how good they are they struggle to match the level of commitment of the locals defending their homes, families and cultures.
With respect to the shopping list
Professionalism - I will stipulate that the CAF is a professional force
Troop interaction - that is a broad as it is long - I can't define his terms there.
Targeting, Fire Co-Ordination, Equipment, Logistics - All of those fall under the auspices of what I have been referring to as Woolwich, the Arsenal or The Ordnance. Collectively the blue suiters - as opposed to the scarlets and greens of the cavalry and infantry.
Perhaps we need more blue suiters in higher positions for longer.
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Russia loses 1,090 soldiers in reported deadliest day of war
Ukrainian troops killed more than 1,000 Russian soldiers in what could be the deadliest day of fighting since the invasion of the country more than a year ago, Kyiv’s military said Sunday.
nypost.com
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I think this has been mentioned elsewhere, but bears repeating…arguably Ukraine was possibly the largest valid element of the USSR’s “second army of the world”…likely more so even than Poland. Russia with only Belarus and some of the Stans is not anything close to what it was in the past. The Uber–centralized Russian Army (districts) has/have demonstrated far less effectiveness and sustainability than decades past.
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Your statement is correct but I don't think it is at odds with the French statement. A lot of people, professionals among them, were very surprised.
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I hope this remains true and isn't based solely on analysis form the beginning of the war.French General Michel Yakovleff considers Ukraine's army the best in Europe
I read a post on a Ukraine war channel from someone who (apparently) has family in Ukraine.
He said the Ukranian army USED to fight like NATO, but since the war has dragged on, most of the NATO trained troops have become casualties, and have been repalced by mobilized Uks, many of them ex-military who retired before the western military practices came into effect. The end result being that the Ukrainian army as a whole is, unfortunately, starting to go back toward soviet style command and control, at least on the front (i.e. low initiative NCOs).
I hope this was an incorrect assessment.
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Who’s on a higher dose of Decadron (dexamethasone)? Putin or Kadyrov?
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I think it’s a localized issue.
Certain units seem to be a lot more Soviet oriented than others.
The majority of the new UAF recruits are being basic Infantry trained by NATO Armies - and the Artillery and Armor are as well.
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Neat little tracker Tracking Russia's losses in Ukraine
Fabius
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I think based on my experience with the Ukrainian Forces in 2019 to 2020 the narrative of the Ukrainian Army fighting like NATO is largely something both the NATO countries and Ukraine want to promote but I don't think its necessarily fact. Like KevinB said certain units and formations certainly fight like NATO elements would.
In terms of Ukrainian NATO standardization level prior to the invasion I would suggest that it was highest in UKRSOF, then the National Guard specifically key formations like the Azov Regiment and the 4th Rapid Response Brigade. The Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Army specifically were farther behind.
Its important to remember that most of the training delivered by UNIFIER and ORBITAL (The UK peer to UNIFIER) were mostly focused on technical skills like ETHAR, sniping, etc. and NCO development. Delivery of officer training and expansion of NATO training into the Ukrainian Officer Academy's was nascent at best and understanding of NATO orders, doctrine etc. largely topped out at the Major/LCol ranks and was mostly exposure to MDMP via short courses and overall was still quite thin across the entirety of the officer corps.
None of that means that they were not effective nor that they fought as the Soviet Army would have, however claims of them fighting like a NATO force is not quite accurate in my opinion, at least at anything above Pl/Coy.
Additionally although NATO country's are training Ukrainian soldiers on Basic and on equipment, to me neither of those translate necessarily to Ukrainian units and formations knowing how to fight like NATO ones, a Basic recruit training is too low level and focused on basic soldier skills obviously and my understanding is that the equipment training is how to operate the MBT as an example not really how to fight the tank as a unit/subunit, especially as the pers learning how to operate the Leo's etc. are all experienced tankers already.
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I'm guessing the hardest part has just been holding the line in the mud and the snow. Those guys getting the UK, Germany and Polish postings are likely to have fewer "morale" issues, I'm guessing.
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I've been wondering since this began if "Mission Command" is just a good wash for "independently minded partisans who loosely follow direction". That would work in the early days with the "partisans" being overseen by UKRSOF and Higher exploiting their 24 or so "professional" regional brigades and their Air Assault troops.
The Donbas is where I expect higher to have been investing the least effort and leaving it up to existing framework that has been holding that line for the last 8 years. Reinforce where and when necessary - preferably as little as possible. And wait for the ground to dry out.
If Canada is 9 months of winter and 3 months of hard sledding Ukraine seems to be 9 months of mud and 3 months in the fields.
daftandbarmy
Army.ca Dinosaur
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That last round... genius
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Did I remember a distant Warrant screaming something about "Keep your spacing!" and "Don't bunch up!"
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