Ukraine - Superthread

[Kirkhill]

both Sweden and Switzerland have been using highways for years. Austere field operations is one of the pluses for the Gripen.

You can add the Finns and Germans among others

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/the-highways-masquerading-as-secret-military-airfields/news-story/adccbeb1ed6ab0d4ce20ac92bce72d20

 

[Kirkhill]

I thought to check on the Gripen which is being touted as a "simple" fast-track solution for Ukraine and came across this South African anecdote.

Training to be a Gripen pilot, from recruitment to first solo flight on the fighter, takes about six-and-a-half years. This includes basic military training (three months), officers forming course (a further three months), the Military Academy (one year) and basic pilot training (one year).

Even if it was assumed that you had a military pilot with basic pilot training it still takes the South Africans 5 years to create a competent Gripen C/D (older generation) driver.

 

[GK .Dundas]

I thought to check on the Gripen which is being touted asimple" fast-track solution for Ukraine and came across this South African anecdote.



Even if it was assumed that you had a military pilot with basic pilot training it still takes the South Africans 5 years to create a competent Gripen C/D (older generation) driver.

Skip basic because you doing anyway as part of your officer's training which stays at 90 days .A lot of stuff can cut . It's wartime you have the luxury of waiting .

.You should be able to produce a decent pilots in an emergency situation

 

[daftandbarmy]

I’m curious, if we took our ‘walk in off the street’ to ‘qualified fighter pilot’ path, discarded the packing peanuts and squeezed out all the unnecessary air bubbles, how long in terms of continuous training does it truly take to qualify someone to fly, and then to fly a fighter? Assuming there were a robust enough organization in place to allow for removing most or all logistical choke points, to the point stent that training progression is limited in the case of each individual pilot by their ability to learn the material and demonstrate performance of the skills?

The Israelis take three years.

https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/israeli-air-force/how-iaf-pilots-take-off/

I visited Israel and we had a tour of a Kibbutz, near the Golan Heights. They claimed that more than 20% of their fighter pilots were Kibbutzim, and the blend of collective living and individual responsibility ethics conveyed there really helped with the selection and training process, which I found fascinating of course.

Societal Values: Impact on Israel Security—The Kibbutz Movement as a Mobilized Elite on JSTOR

Zeev Drory, Societal Values: Impact on Israel Security—The Kibbutz Movement as a Mobilized Elite, Israel Studies, Vol. 19, No. 1 (Spring 2014), pp. 166-188

www.jstor.org

 

[GR66]

And yet you will hand off a supersonic fighter to autopilot?

Navy Brings 'Precision Landing Mode' Carrier Landing Assist Tool to New Fighter Pilots - USNI News

The Navy is in the final stages of fully adopting a Precision Landing Mode for fighter pilots, with young fleet replacement squadron pilots for the first time conducting carrier qualifications with the tool that significantly cuts down on the work required during an approach to the back of an...

news.usni.org

I

It will be very interesting to see where AI leads us in the realm of air warfare. AI aircraft have already (virtually) defeated human pilots in DARPA testing. There are still lots of questions and hurdles in fielding actual AI combat aircraft - not least of which being questions around autonomous weapons release. There are also questions as to how expansive the roles for AI aircraft will be. Some of the "loyal wingman" type programs (the RAF's "Mosquito" for example) seem to be moving away from full fledged AI fighters as wingmen and more towards more specific "enhancement" enablers. If AI and Machine Learning actually make it possible to remove humans from the cockpit then the actual designs of aircraft could continue to evolve into more radical forms.

We have to face the fact that our current exquisite fleet of manned fighters is not sustainable in war time. Not if Ukraine is any example. The Air Forces available there are "surviving" by picking their fights. Even with the limited GBAD systems in evidence neither side feels they can achieve air superiority let alone air control.

I think that as always we need to be careful before we extrapolate what's happening in Ukraine to peer conflict in general. The concept of achieving air supremacy in a conflict is a Western (i.e. US) idea because frankly they are the only nation with the military capacity to have a realistic chance of achieving it. From everything I've read the Russian concept of operations is to use much smaller packets of aircraft to try and achieve temporary, local air superiority over portions of the front in support of ground operations. They know they can't beat the Americans at their own game and have tailored their tactics accordingly. We don't really know how US SEAD/DEAD operations using both stealth aircraft and long range precision strikes would affect enemy GBAD effectiveness. Perhaps it would be effective enough that it would allow air superiority to be gained?

When the USAF is considering landing KC-46 tankers on highways, and has already practiced with A10s and C130s, you have to believe they don't have a lot of faith in their ability to defend and sustain their airbases with their runways, control systems, hard shelters and $100,000,000 aircraft and their 5 year pilots.

KC-46 Expands Its Austere Airfield Capabilities, Could Include Roadways In Future

With the help of Airfield Marking Patterns, the tanker's potential to move fuel and supplies to austere locations is increasing.

www.thedrive.com

Historic Highway Landing Advances Agile Combat Employment

ALGER COUNTY, Michigan – Air National Guard A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft, Air Force Special Operations Command MC-12W, C-145A and U-28A aircraft, and a C-146A aircraft from the Air Force Reserves

www.nationalguard.mil

There has to be a different way of doing things.

We don't really know how effective Russian (or Chinese) strategic forces (bombers and ground launched missiles) would actually be in taking out allied airfields. Did Russian hubris in thinking that their Ukraine campaign would be a cake walk with minimal resistance by the Ukrainian military give the Ukrainian Air Force enough time to disperse their fighters before being taken out on the ground? Or did Western intelligence give enough warning allowing them to disperse in advance of the attack? Maybe Russia/China will learn from that and launch attacks on Western airfields without advance warning permitting dispersion? In the Taiwan wargames by CSIS it noted that 90% of Western aircraft losses were on the ground. We may have plans to disperse our aircraft in wartime, but do we practice it? Have the assets/equipment/personnel ready to actually do it? Is it any good having a plan to disperse if on Day 1 of a conflict you haven't already dispersed? I've often wondered what the impact of Canada's expeditionary warfighting capability would be if the first action taken against us by an enemy was a mortar and SF attack on Trenton to destroy our CC-177/CC-150/CC-130J fleets.

In the middle of a war Russian aircraft were still parking outside in visible site in Crimea, Russia and more recently in Belarus where UAVs were able to destroy them on the ground (or land on top of an A-50). As @Kirkhill suggests, we may not really be taking adequate measures to protect our own very expensive aircraft and personnel when they are NOT in combat. We probably DO need a different way of doing things, but I'm not sure it's clear yet exactly what the best alternative is.

One think I do believe though is that our personnel issues are not likely to improve much. Our population is aging...and in many countries might actually be on its way to decreasing and a military career is maybe not as desirable as maybe it once was. I think we do really need to look at ways to do as much/more with less people.

 

[Kirkhill]

I am looking at an F35 as a strike platform and comparing the cost of launching a Tomahawk strike over an equivalent distance.

Is it worth the cost of being able to recover the booster platform after every strike?

In my opinion that answer is no. Especially so if the Tomahawks are also escorted by UAS's like the UTAP22s - which have been in service since 2004 as aerial targets (BQM-167) - which can dodge, emit, drop and launch ordnance and return to base but are about the same price as a Tomahawk.

Lets assume an average missile/drone cost of 1 MUSD vs a Flyaway Cost of 80 MUSD for the F35 plus a pilot. Multiply by two for the minimum number of assets at risk on a single strike and a strike radius of about 1000 km - equivalent to a one way trip for a Tomahawk, or a return trip for the UTAP-22. The UTAP can reach out to 2500 km on a one way kamikaze mission.

Admittedly the F35s can carry cruise missiles as well, extending their range to that of the Kamikaze UTAP.


I doubt if the F35 and Unmanned Wingmen will ever be involved in dogfighting in contested air space unless something has gone horribly wrong. My guess is that the primary value of the F35 will be as a C5ISR asset whose standoff distance is very short due to its stealthiness. I could also see it supplying top cover with BVRAAMs and AARGM-ERs.

But the strike package? Why wouldn't that be fully autonomous and unmanned?

As for the MRLS/HIMARS/GLSDB/PrSM capability - that seems likely to reduce the times that the Ground Commander is going to have to call the Air Commander for strike support.

I don't really see the autonomous solution as adopting manned TTPs at all.



The other primary use of the air force is going to be transport, I believe. The ability to deliver people, vehicles and materiel to the Ground Forces where possible. And delivering those things direct to a highway would be a pretty handy capability. Pickup by vehicle, helicopter or UAV for forwarding.

Edit to clarify the effects of wrong assumptions about the AARGM-ER. I thought its range was in the same league as the Tomahawk. To achieve that range the AARGM-ER would have to be carried by something like the UTAP22.

 

[Skysix]

In case not seen yet, tell me once again USMC why females shouldn't be in combat because they are weaker etc?

 

[daftandbarmy]

Another - apparent - mass culling...

Mayor: 'Hundreds' of Russian soldiers may have been killed in Ukrainian strike on occupied Melitopol​

by The Kyiv Independent news desk March 6, 2023 1:40 am

Exiled Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov said in an interview on TV on March 5 that two powerful explosions were heard in the northern part of the occupied city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, possibly killing hundreds of Russian soldiers stationed in the city.

"In occupied Melitopol, powerful explosions are heard, two enemy bases were destroyed," Fedorov said.

According to the mayor, Russian losses as a result of the strike "amount to hundreds of people, but the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will provide more detailed information."

“Today is a weekend of hell for them, just like the whole last week of hell,” Fedorov also said.

The city of Melitopol, with a pre-war population of 150,000 people, was occupied on Feb. 26 of last year, just two days after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.

Since November last year, Russian soldiers arriving from recently liberated parts of Kherson Oblast and the city of Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast have turned Melitopol into a military base.

Mayor: 'Hundreds' of Russian soldiers may have been killed in Ukrainian strike on occupied Melitopol

Exiled Mayor Ivan Fedorov said on air that after two powerful explosions that were reportedly heard in the northern part of occupied city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, two areas of Russian manpower were allegedly destroyed. According to him, about

kyivindependent.com

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I was thinking of the exact same scene.

Actually, it was the other way around: lots of rifles, but a shortage of ammo.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Nasty for the TC of that tank.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632774315249631232

 

[brihard]

Nasty for the TC of that tank.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632774315249631232

Yes and no. Possible he went easier than the rest of his crew.

 

[MilEME09]

Russian armour had a very bad day...23 tanks visually lost in 24h

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632891708143722496

 

[Skysix]

No words.

Read the translation - if it is accurate this Russian pop song is a window into the soul of a very sick culture. One that will not suddenly change because of a leadership shuffle.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632777602799632389

 

[MilEME09]

No words.

Read the translation - if it is accurate this Russian pop song is a window into the soul of a very sick culture. One that will not suddenly change because of a leadership shuffle.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632777602799632389

I'm not surprised, not after the latest pow execution video that surfaced yesterday. For those that haven't seen it, the UA soldier below was captured by a russia unit, was offered a smoke, then shot with a atleast half a mag.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633080133971218432

 

[daftandbarmy]

I'm not surprised, not after the latest pow execution video that surfaced yesterday. For those that haven't seen it, the UA soldier below was captured by a russia unit, was offered a smoke, then shot with a atleast half a mag.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633080133971218432

Zigaretten?

 

[Halifax Tar]

Zigaretten?

View attachment 76690

Well played.

I'm sure neither side is guilt free from these actions.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Well played.

I'm sure neither side is guilt free from these actions.

And there are some darker truths in our own past, as described by Tim Cook, which might speak to the ferocity of the current conflict in Ukraine:

The forgotten ruthlessness of Canada’s Great War soldiers​

The forgotten ruthlessness of Canada’s Great War soldiers

Modern Canadians cannot condemn the sometimes shocking behaviour of their WWI soldiers without knowing the stress of battle, historian Tim Cook says

nationalpost.com

 

[Halifax Tar]

And there are some darker truths in our own past, as described by Tim Cook, which might speak to the ferocity of the current conflict in Ukraine:

The forgotten ruthlessness of Canada’s Great War soldiers​

The forgotten ruthlessness of Canada’s Great War soldiers

Modern Canadians cannot condemn the sometimes shocking behaviour of their WWI soldiers without knowing the stress of battle, historian Tim Cook says

nationalpost.com

War is a nasty business.

 

[RaceAddict]

Winged JDAM Smart Bombs Are Now Operational In Ukraine

The U.S. Air Force's top officer in Europe says JDAM-ERs are now in Ukrainian hands, putting whole new Russian target sets at risk.

www.thedrive.com

 

[childs56]

And there are some darker truths in our own past, as described by Tim Cook, which might speak to the ferocity of the current conflict in Ukraine:

The forgotten ruthlessness of Canada’s Great War soldiers​

The forgotten ruthlessness of Canada’s Great War soldiers

Modern Canadians cannot condemn the sometimes shocking behaviour of their WWI soldiers without knowing the stress of battle, historian Tim Cook says

nationalpost.com

I do not blame Canadians at the time for being Vicious. Most had left Europe for a better life. Then they were drawn into a war to which they new if it wasn't won on the European front would likely be on their shores, they would loose what they had left to start a better life. German Soldiers were some of the most ruthless bullies on the block, until they got put in their place. When they coward it pissed the Canadians off and they fought to win today not tomorrow, they didnt fight to fight another day they wanted to win today and go back home to their life.

I have friends who are Ukrainian and they have vowed to fight to the bitter end at all reasonable costs to protect their home. They are smart they do not want nuclear or chemical weapons used, they don't want their land contaminated. I doubt Russia even cares at this point.
As for Russia and their savagery, there is no excuse then that's their culture always has been and always will be. They need to put dealt with in the most intense means possible conventionally.