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Ukraine - Superthread

You are making the assumption that the other 3 (known as of now) balloons followed the same route as the last one. I'm not willing to make that assumption as of now.

Considering that the locations transited according to the Washington Post were Guam, Hawaii, Texas and Florida I'm guessing they didn't transit through Canada.
 
excerpt from NORAD mission:
1 Canadian Air Division is responsible for providing CANR with combat-ready air forces to meet Canada’s commitment to the defence of North America and maintain the sovereignty of North American airspace.

NORAD assets are positioned strategically throughout Canada and the U.S. and can respond to any air sovereignty threat in a matter of minutes. CANR CF-18 Hornet fighter aircraft are on continuous alert to respond to any potential aerial threat to the safety of Canada and Canadians.


A CF188 out of Cold Lake is at max speed 2+ hours from Alert but will fall into the ocean just before Prince of Wales Island after it runs out of fuel.
Canada, even with an F35 cannot meet this obligation. Even 2+ hours its impossible without tankers being based out of Yellowknife or Churchill or Thule. Basing fighters in Resolute cuts that down to 1/2 an hour or less to any point on the northern shores.
We have refuelers to support F35? Wow. I never knew. And the tank farms to refuel them and their payload? NOT

Other than Hay River, Whitehorse, Chuchill and Yellowknife all fuel is shipped in by barge during a very short season each summer. When we have a run of RSV or SARS-2 or pregnancies the medevacs have literally put the communities at risk and required fuel to be flown in by Buffalo / First Air cargo etc before their generators run out. They do not plan for and ship enough fuel to support even frequent GA flights let alone a C130 refueler. And the KC46/135's won't be able to land on 5000' or less gravel strips.
 
There's fragging, and then there's 'shovelling' ;)


Ukraine releases video appearing to show Russian troops beating own wounded officer​

Footage thought to show Wagner group fighters beating commander with what appear to be shovels

 
There's fragging, and then there's 'shovelling' ;)


Ukraine releases video appearing to show Russian troops beating own wounded officer​

Footage thought to show Wagner group fighters beating commander with what appear to be shovels

i can dig it golden girls GIF
 
You thought you had problems manning cold lake lol, fighters further north on a permanent basis? Ok. 🤣

The salary offset would have to be substantial.
 
So what closes that gap? Is it simply a matter of putting in sensors that are largely operated remotely? Given NORAD’s integration, is there a true hole in the fighter coverage between Elmendorf and Cold Lake that would be fixed by a permanent sick pack of F-35s somewhere in Yukon or NWT?

There were some… fanciful comments earlier about a hypothetical swarm of Russian missiles coming in to hit vague ‘infrastructure’ targets in the Canadian prairies. I’m not sure what conceptual and realistic adversary war plan this fits into, but I’m pretty confident that if Ivan was leaning towards a strike on North America and a war on NATO, there would likely be enough of an intelligence heads up that we’d see forces postured further north, both ours and American. If the Russians want to sail a boomer into James Bay, I think that’s more of a Bagotville problem than an Inuvik one… But I’m not a mapologist.

It’s fine to say that CAF members signed up to go anywhere. Yup, got it. CAF isn’t the only federal or provincial agency that needs people in more remote places, and frankly other than ALERT, CAF isn’t actually much of a player in that game… Yellowknife and Cold Lake are relatively ‘remote’ if you’ve never worked far from a southern CFB, but you’re still talking places that have at least some opportunity for families and spouses. Very different if you start talking seriously about permanently dropping a unit somewhere like Inuvik or what have you. Other government organizations that have to staff such places (OPP and RCMP come to mind, plus some health agencies) usually do so on a relatively short duration basis, and with people whose skill sets - cops, nurses etc - can pick up, move, and hit the ground running easily, so rotating them is easy. Not sure CAF could duplicate that model with all the techs needed to keep fighters in the air. @Quirky and maybe a few others could speculate from an informed standpoint on CAF’s ability to attract and (more likely problem) retain techs if permanent basing even farther afield than Cold Lake or Bagotville were part of the deal. I think CAF would struggle with that.

Drilling down, what actual, concrete military need exists, and what are realistic events and realistic response times? What do you need to see, what do we need to kill, and where and when do we need to kill it? I suspect most of the answers to that would support beefed up forward staging options, but not punching some of our fighter community up further north on a permanent basis.
Does the RCMP send recruits out of Depot to V Division?

To be fair, while the OPP has some off-the-beaten-path locations, it is nothing like the RCMP (and perhaps the SQ but I don't know if they still do their north or it's all FN). There is only one location without a road. It used to be that the Force would transfer you at will, and volunteering for a northern posting was fairly common. Now, most northern locations are fixed duration so most do their term then head south. You don't get 'sent' anywhere and volunteerism for the north is much lower, which means a lot of the northern locations are staffed by members with only a few years on. It's odd because the northern allowance is quite generous. It's much the same demographics that the CAF is dealing with.

*******

While I don't know what's available at places like Thule, what would be needed for a remote Arctic location of any size would be full services facilities available to everyone, including family healthcare, and some kind of housing subsidy that the CRA doesn't claw back. According to the Internet, rental facilities in Iqaluit range from $2200-2800 . The CAF used to be more all-inclusive or self-supporting than it is today. I was posted to a community that had a Pinetree CFS and I was amazed at the services and facilities that were available to the personnel and families.
 
Does the RCMP send recruits out of Depot to V Division?

To be fair, while the OPP has some off-the-beaten-path locations, it is nothing like the RCMP (and perhaps the SQ but I don't know if they still do their north or it's all FN). There is only one location without a road. It used to be that the Force would transfer you at will, and volunteering for a northern posting was fairly common. Now, most northern locations are fixed duration so most do their term then head south. You don't get 'sent' anywhere and volunteerism for the north is much lower, which means a lot of the northern locations are staffed by members with only a few years on. It's odd because the northern allowance is quite generous. It's much the same demographics that the CAF is dealing with.

*******

While I don't know what's available at places like Thule, what would be needed for a remote Arctic location of any size would be full services facilities available to everyone, including family healthcare, and some kind of housing subsidy that the CRA doesn't claw back. According to the Internet, rental facilities in Iqaluit range from $2200-2800 . The CAF used to be more all-inclusive or self-supporting than it is today. I was posted to a community that had a Pinetree CFS and I was amazed at the services and facilities that were available to the personnel and families.
Nunavut? I think they probably do.

Sending younger members to more remote places is probably a lot easier than sending people with families - or keeping them if you say you’re gonna send them, especially if their spouse has a career. The work/family balance expectations have shifted, and the airlines are always hiring techs.
 
You thought you had problems manning cold lake lol, fighters further north on a permanent basis? Ok. 🤣

The salary offset would have to be substantial.
The salary is redundant. You go where you're told. The GoC sets its policies and commitments and CAF members serve at the whims of the government. There's always considerations for term of deployments etc, but if you're ordered to Romania or Cold Lake you go or accept the consequences and try to defend your refusing to follow orders. Does everyone feel they're entitled these days FFS.
 
More on the improvisational side - doing what they can...

FORBES
BUSINESSAEROSPACE & DEFENSE

A Brigade of Ukrainian Moms, Dads, Bloggers And Retirees Is Resisting Russia’s Human Wave Attacks In Bakhmut​

David Axe
Forbes Staff
I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.
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Feb 7, 2023,10:45am EST
The 241st Territorial Defense Brigade in May 2022.

The 241st Territorial Defense Brigade in May 2022.
UKRAINIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY PHOTO
As the Russian army barreled toward Kyiv in the early days of Russia's wider war on Ukraine last February, the call went out for volunteers in the besieged capital city. These volunteers—thousands of them—formed a new territorial-defense unit.



A year later, that unit—the 241st Territorial Defense Brigade—is in the thick of the fighting in what is, at present, the bloodiest sector of the wider war. The snowy hills and ruined city blocks in and around Bakhmut, 30 miles north of Donetsk, the seat of the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region.

The Russian army and its allies from The Wagner Group, a shadowy mercenary firm, since last spring have been trying—and so far failing—to capture Bakhmut, a city with a pre-war population of 70,000 that, aside from abutting a few roads, has little strategic value.

But it's in Bakhmut that Wagner has chosen to prove its human-wave assaults—thousands of under-trained ex-convicts throwing themselves at Ukrainian positions—could work, and where the Russian army has chosen to begin escalating its operations in Donbas in anticipation of what observers expect will be much wider winter offensive.

While the Ukrainian army has been rotating some of its best active heavy brigades into Bakhmut, lightly-armed territorials usually come along, lending their manpower and deepening battlefield experience to the active brigade's high technology and massive firepower.

The 241st and other territorial brigades ride in machine-gun-armed pickup trucks and captured Russian tractors and fight with whatever light weaponry, infrared sights, radios and drones they can get from the defense ministry in Kyiv or from private donors. The 241st like its sister brigades includes volunteers from all walks of life. I.T. guys. Bloggers. Students. Moms. Dads. Retirees.
That doesn't mean the 241st's territorials aren't good soldiers. That they're all volunteers speaks to their morale, which arguably is the most important factor in a military formation's endurance. Especially in the winter. Even more especially in an urban battle.

But a lack of firepower and armor puts the territorials at risk in an intensifying battle. It should come as no surprise that the 241st has suffered a lot of casualties around Bakhmut. Expect it to lose more men and women as the battle grinds toward a possible conclusion in coming days and weeks.
The 241st formed this spring as tens of thousands of everyday Ukrainians lined up to volunteer for military service. The initial training for the brigade's ragtag mix of citizen-soldiers was rushed and rudimentary. Videos from May depict masses of trainees scurrying across open fields, leaping into trenches and firing their rifles without even firmly seating the stocks in their shoulders.
But their enthusiasm was evident. “I don't fear when I know my goal,” a 241st territorial named Yevhen told his brigade's public-affairs officer.

By August the direct threat to Kyiv had receded. The action was around the free city of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine, as well as in the south. It should come as no surprise that the 241st deployed battalions to Kharkiv while keeping some of its troops in Kyiv.
The air-defense teams the brigade deployed around the capital dragged some 80-year-old, water-cooled Maxim machine guns out of very long-term storage and mounted them to pintles in the beds of their trucks. These air-defenders claimed they’ve shot down more than a few of Russia's Iranian-made Shahed suicide drones, including some they engaged at night, but it's hard to verify those claims.
When Ukrainian brigades counterattacked around Kharkiv in late August, the Russians fell back—and left behind hundreds of intact armored vehicles. The territorials from the 241st scooped up at least two of the vehicles—a pair of MT-LB armored tractors—and added them to their arsenal. But the 241st still mostly relies on pickup trucks and private vehicles for its mobility.
A lack of protected mobility isn't fatal when a brigade occupies prepared fighting positions while defending an urban strongpoint. Small teams of infantry sneak among the ruins, take a few shots at the attacking Russians then hustle away to a new position. No armored fighting vehicles necessary.
But the lack of mobility becomes urgent when the Russians break through, as has happened north, east and south of Bakhmut in recent weeks. Shrugging off tens of thousands of casualties, the Russian army and Wagner have renewed their Bakhmut campaign.
One concerted Russian attack around the New Year cut off a 241st sub-unit, killed several territorials and left two of the brigade's wounded troopers stranded behind enemy lines. No time to escape before they were overrun.
For 11 days they struggled to survive. “We collected first-aid kits off our fallen brothers for dressings,” said a territorial nicknamed “Nike.” “With almost no food or water, we anticipated the right moment to return.” By Jan. 12, the two starving territorials had succeeded in slipping past the Russians and returning to their brigade.

The Ukrainian army's elite 72nd Mechanized Brigade—armed with tanks, fighting vehicles, M-109 howitzers and shoulder-fired Javelin missiles—is doing a lot of the killing in and around Bakhmut. But the brigade's 3,000 troopers are too few to hold all of the trenches, bunkers and basement fighting positions. Not when the Russians are hurling many thousands of men at the city.
So the 241st fills in, stiffening Bakhmut's defenses until Kyiv decides it's killed enough Russians in Bakhmut and the nearly-lifeless ruins no longer are worth defending.

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David Axe

 
The salary is redundant. You go where you're told. The GoC sets its policies and commitments and CAF members serve at the whims of the government. There's always considerations for term of deployments etc, but if you're ordered to Romania or Cold Lake you go or accept the consequences and try to defend your refusing to follow orders. Does everyone feel they're entitled these days FFS.
Yes, obviously you follow lawful orders. But CAF needs to be real here: it is not an employer of choice, has not been for some time, and won’t be again for a while at the present rate. That means that CAF has to compete to attract and retain people with skill sets that are marketable outside of CAF. Given that we’re talking about more remote forward basing of fighter aircraft, that means retaining people who can service jet engines, diagnose and repair avionics, maintain airframes… These people don’t have to stay working for CAF.

So it’s all well and good to piss and moan about people feeling ‘entitled’, but really it’s a matter of employees being empowered and knowing their skills are marketable. That means CAF must, in order to be duly diligent, consider the retention impacts of creating new, less desirable postings, and needs to consider incentivizing retention or increasing intake and training throughout if it decides to go ahead with such COAs anyway.

Labour is a commodity, even in CAF, and it can vote with its feet. CAF, or any institution, ignores that at its peril.
 
And, on a day-to-day basis, do what?
Train, Plan or fly. Same as they do at Cold Lake but a lot closer to our borders. Patrol our airspace and exercise soverignity - more necessary now than before as the arctic archipeligo becomes more accessible. Do we want a Spratlys situation in what we claim is ours but show no interest or presence in?
 
The salary is redundant. You go where you're told. The GoC sets its policies and commitments and CAF members serve at the whims of the government. There's always considerations for term of deployments etc, but if you're ordered to Romania or Cold Lake you go or accept the consequences and try to defend your refusing to follow orders. Does everyone feel they're entitled these days FFS.
Good concept. but as soon as civilian applicants get wind....
 
Good concept. but as soon as civilian applicants get wind....

Which is why hardship postings, short service contracts, young singles and bragging rights all kind of go together.
 
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There's fragging, and then there's 'shovelling' ;)


Ukraine releases video appearing to show Russian troops beating own wounded officer​

Footage thought to show Wagner group fighters beating commander with what appear to be shovels

360 review Russian style.
 
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