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Ukraine - Superthread

Kirkhill

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Justin Bronk - Air War in Ukraine

Plea for America to keep doing what it is doing and a fascinating plea for Sweden to free up Gripens, designed for off-base operations by conscripts while carrying high tech weapons. F16s are too frail for highway landings. F18s might be good but are hard to come by.



 

Kirkhill

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Corporal Frisch on Kinburn and the Indirect Approach (Edit - Lanchester Again)


 

brihard

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Not sure who was authorized to make a statement like that, but it’s utterly absurd. Do I think Ukraine can eventually retake Crimea with continued Western support? Yeah, probably. But there are several other things they’ll need to do first to set the conditions for that, and that’s not something they’ll achieve in six weeks.

When they’ve secured Zaporizhia Oblast and Mariupol, and can reliably protect the eastern flank of what would be a massive endeavour to move on Crimea, then perhaps it could start being a serious discussions- but frankly I think Crimea will be the last of Ukrainian territory to be liberated.

Crimea’s only got a 10km land bridge connecting it to Kherson Oblast. That’s the only way in for Ukraine that doesn’t involve forcing an opposed water crossing. It’s already fortified and defended and will only become more so. Other people here could much better wrap their heads around the challenges of the kind of broad frontal attack that would be necessary, but even I can see it would be an incredibly difficult endeavour.
 

Kirkhill

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Not sure who was authorized to make a statement like that, but it’s utterly absurd. Do I think Ukraine can eventually retake Crimea with continued Western support? Yeah, probably. But there are several other things they’ll need to do first to set the conditions for that, and that’s not something they’ll achieve in six weeks.

When they’ve secured Zaporizhia Oblast and Mariupol, and can reliably protect the eastern flank of what would be a massive endeavour to move on Crimea, then perhaps it could start being a serious discussions- but frankly I think Crimea will be the last of Ukrainian territory to be liberated.

Crimea’s only got a 10km land bridge connecting it to Kherson Oblast. That’s the only way in for Ukraine that doesn’t involve forcing an opposed water crossing. It’s already fortified and defended and will only become more so. Other people here could much better wrap their heads around the challenges of the kind of broad frontal attack that would be necessary, but even I can see it would be an incredibly difficult endeavour.


The linked article -

[IMG alt="Defense Ministry predicts Ukrainian forces be back in Crimea by end of December
"]https://static.ukrinform.com/photos/2021_01/thumb_files/630_360_1611858971-483.jpg[/IMG]

Defense Ministry predicts Ukrainian forces be back in Crimea by end of December​

19.11.2022 16:28

Ukraine’s Defense Forces could be back in Crimea by the end of December, and the war with Russia will be over by the spring of 2023.

Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Volodymyr Havrylov expressed such an opinion in an interview with Sky News.

“Ukrainian forces could be back in Crimea by the end of December and the entire war with Russia will be over by the spring,” Havrylov said.

He stressed the Ukraine would never stop fighting until victory and had even factored in the potential of a Russian nuclear strike. But, according to him, the probability of an atomic attack by Russia is low, as such a step “would be drama for everybody”.
"For everybody it will be just - God knows what scenario - but it [a tactical nuclear strike] is not a threat which will stop us from... continuing our war,” the deputy minister said.
In terms of the prospect for peace talks with the Kremlin, Havrylov said “they would only happen once Russian troops are ready to leave every inch of Ukraine,” including the Crimean Peninsula and a part of the territories in eastern Ukraine that have been held by Russian-backed separatists for the past eight years.
"There is a decision inside the society in Ukraine that we are going up to the end," Havrylov said.
"People paid a lot of blood, a lot of efforts to what we have already achieved and everybody knows that any delay or frozen conflict is only the continuation of this war against the existence of Ukraine as a nation,” he noted.
As Ukrinform reported, President Volodymyr Zelensky in a virtual speech to G20 leaders on November 15 outlined a ten-point peace plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.

 

GR66

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Not sure who was authorized to make a statement like that, but it’s utterly absurd. Do I think Ukraine can eventually retake Crimea with continued Western support? Yeah, probably. But there are several other things they’ll need to do first to set the conditions for that, and that’s not something they’ll achieve in six weeks.

When they’ve secured Zaporizhia Oblast and Mariupol, and can reliably protect the eastern flank of what would be a massive endeavour to move on Crimea, then perhaps it could start being a serious discussions- but frankly I think Crimea will be the last of Ukrainian territory to be liberated.

Crimea’s only got a 10km land bridge connecting it to Kherson Oblast. That’s the only way in for Ukraine that doesn’t involve forcing an opposed water crossing. It’s already fortified and defended and will only become more so. Other people here could much better wrap their heads around the challenges of the kind of broad frontal attack that would be necessary, but even I can see it would be an incredibly difficult endeavour.
Could be a comment for Russian consumption. Terrify the untrained conscripts being pushed into combat against an advancing foe?
 

brihard

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Disappointing that someone that senior would say something that silly. That implies at least some meaningful military presence in Crimea. No way that happens that quick. It’s at least a couple distinct major offensives just to make it to the border, plus a major effort shoring up GLOC and restoring crossings across the Dnipro.
 

Kirkhill

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Further to


 

Kirkhill

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Could be a comment for Russian consumption. Terrify the untrained conscripts being pushed into combat against an advancing foe?

It could indeed be to encourage those already on their third rearward relocation to keep on moving.

The Russians were originally reported as fortifying the East Bank. Then they relocated 10 to 20 km inland. Now they are relocating 60 km to the rear which puts them right up against Crimea.
 

Skysix

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Interesting supposition. And it makes sense, both from a low-risk strategy for Russia perspective and from an extremely hard to counter or accomodate western perspective.

The only strategy I can think of that might work to counter it is giving Ukraine the means to end the war as soon ss possible. No limits on supply of western tech and weapons and the supply of contractors/instructors to optimise its use. Striking Russian territory should no longer be off the table. This will also preserve the volume of supplies remaining in western armouries to some extent and save lives in the long term by ending Putin's Genocidal war sooner.

Piecemeal support as a strategy has failed as evidenced by its restrictions "loosening" time and time again. The only way to end this Genocidal war is peace through superior firepower. Something the former Soviet states understood months ago and the west is still having a hard time comprehending. We (NATO) caved in to Putin's nuclear blackmail at the political level early on and have indirectly caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands through the prolonging of the fighting.

 
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