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Ukraine - Superthread

KevinB

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Now looks like the first report was not accurate!

I think it’s more of a ATACMS, PrSM issue than the launcher themselves.
The M30 and M31 series of rockets are a 60-70km range which I don’t think are a concern here.

Still a reversal though (and concerning) as last week ATACMS where pretty much a done deal here.
 

Haggis

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I think it’s more of a ATACMS, PrSM issue than the launcher themselves.
The M30 and M31 series of rockets are a 60-70km range which I don’t think are a concern here.

Still a reversal though (and concerning) as last week ATACMS where pretty much a done deal here.
The biggest concern may be the US's fear of enthusiastic Ukrainian use. It will be very tempting to use a system which can easily reach into Mother Russia to do exactly that. Of course, as The Bread Guy noted above, temptation in Russia for retaliatory strikes on NATO territory - including the CONUS, as some Russian lawmakers have demanded - will be quite high.
 

KevinB

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The biggest concern may be the US's fear of enthusiastic Ukrainian use. It will be very tempting to use a system which can easily reach into Mother Russia to do exactly that. Of course, as The Bread Guy noted above, temptation in Russia for retaliatory strikes on NATO territory - including the CONUS, as some Russian lawmakers have demanded - will be quite high.
Does Russia want to exist at the end? That’s the question we should be asking Russian lawmakers.

As far as ATACMS go, there aren’t enough missiles in inventory to cause major issues in Russia and PrSM isn’t fully fielded yet in US inventory so it’s not going.

However Russia seems to be be intent on imploding without ATACMS being fielded to Ukraine anyway.
 

RangerRay

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I think it’s more of a ATACMS, PrSM issue than the launcher themselves.
The M30 and M31 series of rockets are a 60-70km range which I don’t think are a concern here.

Still a reversal though (and concerning) as last week ATACMS where pretty much a done deal here.
Even if the Ukrainians had bottle rockets, technically they could roll up to the border in some places an launch rockets into Russia. Just saying’…

I was reading an article yesterday discussing the odd situation of Russia not wanting to discuss clear cases of Ukrainian artillery and air strikes on targets in Russia. The conventional wisdom is it would give the Russians a chance to cry victim and justify a higher level of mobilization. Instead, they are radio silent.
 

AlexanderM

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I think it’s more of a ATACMS, PrSM issue than the launcher themselves.
The M30 and M31 series of rockets are a 60-70km range which I don’t think are a concern here.

Still a reversal though (and concerning) as last week ATACMS where pretty much a done deal here.
If the Ukrainians get the 60-70km range, my understanding is they will at least be able to outrange the Russian artillery, which would still be a huge win!! Yes?
 

KevinB

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Even if the Ukrainians had bottle rockets, technically they could roll up to the border in some places an launch rockets into Russia. Just saying’…

I was reading an article yesterday discussing the odd situation of Russia not wanting to discuss clear cases of Ukrainian artillery and air strikes on targets in Russia. The conventional wisdom is it would give the Russians a chance to cry victim and justify a higher level of mobilization. Instead, they are radio silent.
It shows weakness and an admission they aren’t as deep in Ukraine or in control as they
Claim.
 

KevinB

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If the Ukrainians get the 60-70km range, my understanding is they will at least be able to outrange the Russian artillery, which would still be a huge win!! Yes?
They already outrange most of the RUAF artillery. Russia simply has a slew of artillery.
Doctrine wise they have always been exceptionally heavy in Arty. So even outranging then doesn’t always give advantages due to their mass.

MLRS just allows them a great degree of precision and weight of fire, plus rapid mobility.
 

Haggis

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Does Russia want to exist at the end? That’s the question we should be asking Russian lawmakers.
Those advocating for a strike on the CONUS, either conventional or nuclear, are betting that the current US administration doesn't have the stomach for a MAD likely conflict.
 

KevinB

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Those advocating for a strike on the CONUS, either conventional or nuclear, are betting that the current US administration doesn't have the stomach for a MAD likely conflict.
Or are foolishly believing their nuclear Arsenal is in decent shape???
Very embarrassing to get a whoops when trying to use a rusty saber, but it’s life ending when the hilt falls off and your enemies didn’t.
 

Good2Golf

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Or are foolishly believing their nuclear Arsenal is in decent shape???
Very embarrassing to get a whoops when trying to use a rusty saber, but it’s life ending when the hilt falls off and your enemies didn’t.
Rumour has it that most RU warheads’ tritium dose has long expired so at the very least, yields are questionable.
 

McG

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Rumour has it that most RU warheads’ tritium dose has long expired so at the very least, yields are questionable.
Partial detonation gives less blast but a whole lot more contamination. Not sure which would be worse in the long run.
 

The Bread Guy

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... I was reading an article yesterday discussing the odd situation of Russia not wanting to discuss clear cases of Ukrainian artillery and air strikes on targets in Russia. The conventional wisdom is it would give the Russians a chance to cry victim and justify a higher level of mobilization. Instead, they are radio silent.
Not completely radio silent (Google search results for "Belgorod" - near-the-UKR-border town - and "shelling"), but for SURE not playing the "victim of UKR strikes" card as a trump card in the narrative at this point.
 

daftandbarmy

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Tom Cooper sends....

Ukraine War, 26–29 May 2022​

Good morning everybody!

STRATEGIC

Amid reports about USA preparing deliveries of M142 HIMARS to Ukraine, Putin is said to have declared delivery of such systems for ‘Red Line’. Unclear what kind of Red Line and what would be the consequences.

Deliveries of M777s are coming forward relatively slowly: 2 battalions with a total of 18 pieces are in operation, but the rest of deliveries seem not to be even in Ukraine as of yet. As of this week, there were still more of Estonian- and Italian-supplied FH70s around the battlefield.

After three months of patiently waiting for the German Chancellor Scholz and his government to do more than help Ukraine with money, I’m starting to join those insisting the same is dragging its feet in this regards. After all, all the promised deliveries of heavy arms — even those including Germany providing arms to countries like, say, Poland or Slovenia, so these can send their ‘Soviet designed’ tanks other stuff to Ukraine — have failed to materialise. Indeed, on 27 May, Scholz began babbling on Twitter about ‘shall violence be countered by violence’, ‘can there be peace without arms’… and similar nonsense. Please, somebody be so kind and slap him in the face: perhaps he’s going to wake up from that condition…

The overall commander of RFA units in the Donbass area is now said to be another officer from the Far East District, Colonel-General Gennady Zhidko. Is said to be another ‘veteran of Syria’, but I do not recall to have heard of him before: probably served there after 2017. BTW, I doubt this means that Dvornikov is now ‘out’: rather that he’s in overall command of the RFA in Ukraine, and Zhidko in control of the Donbass area, ‘only’: would say that this turned out to be necessary following the failure to coordinate the crossing of the Siversky Donets in the Bilohorivka area, with the breakthrough at Popasna (was a — very — costly failure).

The debate in the USA is now about how the Russians are learning from their experiences, and going to continue advancing in the short term, but can’t win in the long term…. Hm… I do not see the Russians learning anything at all. For the start, they have a massive problem with the necessity to keep Putin’s favourites in command. OK, now they seem to be trying to ‘avoid’ related issues by appointing generals from the Far East District: supposedly, these have least political aspirations and no contacts in Moscow, and thus do not represent a threat for Putin’s regime. However, there is no indication they are improving at operational- or tactical levels. The story with massive concentrations of artillery to achieve this or that — like at Lyman, the last few days, just for example — is nothing new: they were doing this during the Second World War, in Afghanistan, in Ethiopia and Angola (as advisors), in Ukraine of 2014–2015, and Syria of 2015–2018. Following up by Spetsnaz is nothing new at least since Afghanistan of the 1980s, either. At most, they have learned that the only way forward left is one of securing areas that have a good railway network (or are near such areas). They might have learned they have the advantage whenever the Ukrainian forces are ‘fixed’ in specific villages and/or towns. However, as soon as Ukrainians start to manoeuvre, the RFA artillery is behaving like an elephant in a china store, and simply finding no solution. They are poor in counter-battery-business, too — principally because Ukrainians are widely dispersing their artillery, and constantly moving it … with other words: the Russians are best compared to Kissinger (OK, OK: perhaps to Scholz and SPD, too).

Finally, there’s still a lots of talk about arrival of that train loaded with T-62s in Melitupol. Well, don’t forget that few days before there were reports about that convoy of 11km length full of much more modern MBTs arrived in the Popasna area, and the T-62-train in Melitupol was followed by a train loaded with T-80s. Thus, for the time being, I see no point in wasting even more time with guessing about where and how are T-62s going to be deployed.

 

Maxman1

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in Ethiopia and Angola (as advisors)

"Advisors"
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The Bread Guy

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Wily Turkey ... speaking to Ukraine, Erdogan offers this up (Goog Eng translation from Turkish statement) ...
... During the meeting, President Erdoğan stated that they have made every effort to continue the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and that they are ready to provide the needed support, including mediation, from now on ...
... while offering this up to Putin & Co.
... President Erdoğan expressed that they are ready to meet with Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations in Istanbul and to play a role in a possible observation mechanism, if both sides agree on principle ...
Even mentions this bit in TUR state media English-language coverage of the chat with Putin (nothing in English or Turkish I can find in state media about his chat with Zelensky). UKR state media mentions both ...
... The Turkish side offered to host and play its role in a meeting between Russia, Ukraine and the UN in Istanbul, and a possible monitoring mechanism.
Guess he doesn't think offering (what I read to be, anyway) an observer mission to Ukraine makes much sense given they want USSR 2.0 back behind its own borders?

🍿
 

The Bread Guy

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From the "sure Belarus wasn't involved" files, via BLR state media ....
Screenshot 2022-05-31 064129.jpg
 
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