Ukraine - Superthread

[MilEME09]

The first stage of any negotiation is proposing something unacceptable and then working from there

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512451999622643714

 

[rmc_wannabe]

The only people who talk of Ukrainian surrender are those who stand to lose the most by a weakened Russia.

Most of the Western EU states have played both sides of the fence for decades and are now finding out how bad a miscalculation that was.

Ukraine has every right to batter the hell out of the Russians until they cry uncle. Sanctions should remain in place until Russia gives some form of reparations to Ukraine for their War of Aggression. Ukraine should be the ones dictating their security posture, not the EU, NATO, or Russia.

The sooner everyone gets on board with this concept, without thinking Ukrainian territory is a bargaining chip, the better.

 

[suffolkowner]

Theres a lot of fear and nervousness over food supply right now. Im not sure Europe has the stomach for that plus Russias oil and NG

 

[The Bread Guy]

Theres a lot of fear and nervousness over food supply right now. Im not sure Europe or anyone else who'll be affected on the food security front has the stomach for that plus Russias oil and NG

FTFY ... unfortunately.

 

[Kirkhill]

The New York position (AKA the Noam Chomsky position)

Opinion | The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready (Published 2022)

U.S. support for the war is not guaranteed.

www.nytimes.com

Ukraine’s Way Out

Ukraine Is in Worse Shape than You Think

Despite holding back the Russian invasion, Ukraine is facing major crises across many fronts

time.com

The Carolingian position (AKA the Western Defence Union position)

Europe’s leaders fall out of key on Ukraine

Germany, France and Italy are making overtures to Moscow.

www.politico.eu

Ukraine's EU Application Is Splitting Europe in Two

Western nations are more hesitant on Ukraine's EU ambitions, while eastern member states are pushing for progress.

www.newsweek.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527979779252797440

Baltic Position (AKA the Joint Expeditionary Force position)

Ukraine must decide its own future, says Duda – DW – 05/23/2022

Visiting Polish President Andrzej Duda has told Ukrainian parliamentarians that only Ukraine should decide what path it should follow amid Russia's invasion. Follow DW for the latest.

www.dw.com

The Ukrainian position

Ukraine rejects concessions as Russia attacks in east

Kyiv’s stance has become increasingly uncompromising in recent weeks

www.theglobeandmail.com

Ukraine war: 'Concessions are not an option,' Kyiv says

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine's president Zelensky, said the country would not agree to a ceasefire and said Kyiv would not accept any deal with Moscow that involved ceding territory.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Andriy Zagorodnyuk: ‘Those who say Ukraine can’t win don’t understand the situation'

A New York Times editorial article titled “The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready,” published on May 19, immediately triggered a stir in Ukraine and beyond. Coming from a media outlet that has the reputation of being supportive of U.S. assistance to Ukraine against

kyivindependent.com

Open Letter to Noam Chomsky (and other like-minded intellectuals) on the Russia-Ukraine war

Dear Professor Chomsky, We are a group of Ukrainian academic economists who were grieved by a series of your recent...

voxukraine.org

Dmytro Kuleba
@DmytroKuleba

Ukraine government official
Ukraine, and only Ukraine will define when and how the war ends. We exercise our right to self-defence under article 51 of the UN Charter following a brutal armed attack. President
@ZelenskyyUa
has been clear. We don’t need anyone else’s land, but we won’t give up on what’s ours.


8:49 AM · May 21, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Theres a lot of fear and nervousness over food supply right now. Im not sure Europe has the stomach for that plus Russias oil and NG

Europe hasn't had the stomach for anything since the Wall fell. Everyone got rich, fat, and happy off the cheap industry, farming, and labour coming from the Warsaw Pact. Their resolve, their willingness to endure hardship, and their willingness to lift a finger in their own defence has been lacking for decades.

The same can be said for Canada. We bitch and moan about fuel prices, food prices, and our own pockets books at the expense of Ukrainian lives and destruction.

Global food shortage will come regardless if the war rages on for another 6 months. The harvest is lost this year and that is entirely on Russia. If we are in for a penny, might as well go whole hog and ensure the juice was worth the squeeze.

 

[MilEME09]

Global food shortage will come regardless if the war rages on for another 6 months. The harvest is lost this year and that is entirely on Russia. If we are in for a penny, might as well go whole hog and ensure the juice was worth the squeeze.

70% of Ukraines sowing program went ahead, the problem right now is the silos are full because the ports are blocked. They need to get that grain transported out soon, dried grain will last 16 months if properly stored, do we have time before it spoils.

Poland is rapidly constructing a rail line compatible with Ukraine trains from the Ukrainian border to the Baltic ports.

 

[Kirkhill]

Ukraine will negotiate .... once it has won and Russia is cleared from Ukraine. That seems to be Zelenskyy's message.

With a lot of nervous westerners sweating energy prices and nuclear concerns he is trying hard to keep his sponsors on side.

Western Europeans are reluctant allies.
Eastern Europeans and the Scandinavians, all of whom have skin in the game, are keen allies. Britain is backing that play.

And what is the US play?
Next question - which US?

How Putin’s War Remade Washington

From a revitalization of NATO to the return of superpower nuclear anxiety, it’s been a breathtaking three months.

www.newyorker.com

Two hours after Biden’s Nordic photo op, the Senate approved—with an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote of 86–11—a forty-billion-dollar aid package for Ukraine. The twin developments on Thursday reinforced the point that, in the not-quite three months since Russia attacked Ukraine, the war has already changed Washington in striking ways.

“the shock of February 24th”—the date that Putin launched this war against his neighbor, ... That date, it is now clear, represents one of those hinge-point moments that happens every decade or two—a transformative event not just for Ukraine and Europe but for Washington, too.

One of the most alarming changes since then has been the return of nuclear anxiety

Finland and Sweden’s swift decisions to join nato have created one of the most concrete and hard-to-reverse changes since February. The move has very specific military consequences for Russia, which will now face an additional eight-hundred-plus miles of border with nato, two additional militaries that are among the most heavily armed and capable in Europe, and the prospect of the alliance being able to “bottle up the Baltic Sea and keep the Russians from coming out,” as Eric Edelman, a former Pentagon under-secretary in the George W. Bush Administration, put it to me. “It’s huge from a geostrategic point of view,”

And in the background there is this

Two very different EU's are emerging -East EU and West EU- they can't both survive COMMENT

FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron reiterated last night that it will take decades for Ukraine to be accepted into the European Union. Speaking at the European Parliament, Macron suggested instead that Ukraine could join a parallel European community, involving security.

www.express.co.uk

 

[The Bread Guy]

German media takes on a touchy subject

Stepan Bandera: Ukrainian hero or Nazi collaborator? | DW | 22.05.2022

The Mariupol fighters revere him, Russian soldiers hunt his supporters. The myth surrounding Ukrainian nationalist Stepan Bandera is at the heart of Russia's assault on Ukraine. Who was he?

www.dw.com

 

[NavyShooter]

 

[Skysix]

Do you have a a citation for Ireland contemplating joining NATO? I live in Dublin and the local news is notable silent on that and the government has said essentially, “no time soon”. The most the government committed to is modestly increased defence expenditure and possible greater cooperation with NATO.

Does not look at Ireland joining NATO but is a very good analysis of Sweden and Finland's joining effects

 

[Skysix]

With regards to the New York Times, France and Italy suggesting Ukraine should cede territory to Russia in return for peace (and gas/commerce to themselves):

1) WHAT, in the ENTIRE history of Russia makes you think they will stop pursuing their dream of a New Russian Empire?

2) So, how much land will YOU cede to Russia to achieve a temporary peace and a return to normal trade? I am sure Vlad would LOVE to have Russian ports on the Mediteranean and Adriatic. Not to mention the northeastern seaboard. Maybe New York can cede them Montoc ...

3) Stop priorising your bank balances over Ukranian lives. Be grateful they are willing to die for you, only requesting the means to evict an invading horde only slightly more advanced morally than the Mongols of old.

In short, STFU

(rant off)

 

[Haggis]

70% of Ukraines sowing program went ahead, the problem right now is the silos are full because the ports are blocked. They need to get that grain transported out soon, dried grain will last 16 months if properly stored, do we have time before it spoils.

Those silos are probably fairly high on Russia's targeting lists but are not being engaged until they can ensure their own food security, which will likely include those silos.

 

[KevinB]

As long as President Biden and the USG remains committed to helping Ukraine, and the Ukraine is still willing to fight - who cares what some Europeans etc think.

Right now as long as the Arsenal of Democracy remains in play turning over equipment and sending $, who gives two shits about France etc.

Poland and England are still committed hard - and that’s pretty much all you need, one as stop over and the other the transit border.

Maybe those weak knees European weasels should think about the last time the was a major war in Europe…
Macron would be speaking German if America hadn’t moved across the sea…


But Germany today announced sending tanks and IFV’s - so it’s really just Macron trying to play nice to Putin.

Everyone wants Putin gone - so buck up and enjoy the ride.

 

[Maxman1]

Putin is losing his grip on power and top Russian security officials think the Ukraine war is 'lost,' expert says

The "informed elite" within Russian security forces "understand that the war is lost," said Bellingcat's lead Russia investigator Christo Grozev.

www.businessinsider.com

Grain of salt and all but it isn’t inconceivable that saner elements in Russia are aware that this might be over.

 

[Kirkhill]

With regards to the New York Times, France and Italy suggesting Ukraine should cede territory to Russia in return for peace (and gas/commerce to themselves):

2) So, how much land will YOU cede to Russia to achieve a temporary peace and a return to normal trade? I am sure Vlad would LOVE to have Russian ports on the Mediteranean and Adriatic. Not to mention the northeastern seaboard. Maybe New York can cede them Montoc ...

Paris? It worked the last time.

 

[CBH99]

70% of Ukraines sowing program went ahead, the problem right now is the silos are full because the ports are blocked. They need to get that grain transported out soon, dried grain will last 16 months if properly stored, do we have time before it spoils.

Poland is rapidly constructing a rail line compatible with Ukraine trains from the Ukrainian border to the Baltic ports.

Poland is the next door neighbour that every country wishes they had. Talk about real solidarity, real support, and leadership capable of turns words into actions.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Those silos are probably fairly high on Russia's targeting lists but are not being engaged until they can ensure their own food security, which will likely include those silos.

These guys seem to be sharing interesting graphics re: what's where and where it could go in that respect ...

Ukraine's Grains-n-Trains Project - Google My Maps

!PLEASE READ! We are a group of volunteers exploring existing and non-conventional options for moving Ukrainian grains and agricultural products into the European Rail Network for distribution to European Export Terminals, primarily, but not exclusively on the Danube International Waterway...

www.google.com

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Sort of related to the conflict, another link between Canada and Ukraine

How a single Ukrainian grain made its way to Canada and launched Canadian wheat

'The entire development of Canada's wheat industry, the most renowned in the world, is due mainly to a single Ukrainian grain of wheat'

ottawacitizen.com

 

[FJAG]

But Germany today announced sending tanks and IFV’s - so it’s really just Macron trying to play nice to Putin.

I'd like to believe that's true but have seen nothing yet confirming it in any of the German papers (and they would be all over this)