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Ukraine - Superthread

rmc_wannabe

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The only people who talk of Ukrainian surrender are those who stand to lose the most by a weakened Russia.

Most of the Western EU states have played both sides of the fence for decades and are now finding out how bad a miscalculation that was.

Ukraine has every right to batter the hell out of the Russians until they cry uncle. Sanctions should remain in place until Russia gives some form of reparations to Ukraine for their War of Aggression. Ukraine should be the ones dictating their security posture, not the EU, NATO, or Russia.

The sooner everyone gets on board with this concept, without thinking Ukrainian territory is a bargaining chip, the better.
 

Kirkhill

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The New York position (AKA the Noam Chomsky position)


The Carolingian position (AKA the Western Defence Union position)


Baltic Position (AKA the Joint Expeditionary Force position)


The Ukrainian position




Dmytro Kuleba
@DmytroKuleba

Ukraine government official
Ukraine, and only Ukraine will define when and how the war ends. We exercise our right to self-defence under article 51 of the UN Charter following a brutal armed attack. President
@ZelenskyyUa
has been clear. We don’t need anyone else’s land, but we won’t give up on what’s ours.


8:49 AM · May 21, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
 
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rmc_wannabe

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Theres a lot of fear and nervousness over food supply right now. Im not sure Europe has the stomach for that plus Russias oil and NG
Europe hasn't had the stomach for anything since the Wall fell. Everyone got rich, fat, and happy off the cheap industry, farming, and labour coming from the Warsaw Pact. Their resolve, their willingness to endure hardship, and their willingness to lift a finger in their own defence has been lacking for decades.

The same can be said for Canada. We bitch and moan about fuel prices, food prices, and our own pockets books at the expense of Ukrainian lives and destruction.

Global food shortage will come regardless if the war rages on for another 6 months. The harvest is lost this year and that is entirely on Russia. If we are in for a penny, might as well go whole hog and ensure the juice was worth the squeeze.
 

MilEME09

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Global food shortage will come regardless if the war rages on for another 6 months. The harvest is lost this year and that is entirely on Russia. If we are in for a penny, might as well go whole hog and ensure the juice was worth the squeeze.
70% of Ukraines sowing program went ahead, the problem right now is the silos are full because the ports are blocked. They need to get that grain transported out soon, dried grain will last 16 months if properly stored, do we have time before it spoils.

Poland is rapidly constructing a rail line compatible with Ukraine trains from the Ukrainian border to the Baltic ports.
 

Kirkhill

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Ukraine will negotiate .... once it has won and Russia is cleared from Ukraine. That seems to be Zelenskyy's message.

With a lot of nervous westerners sweating energy prices and nuclear concerns he is trying hard to keep his sponsors on side.

Western Europeans are reluctant allies.
Eastern Europeans and the Scandinavians, all of whom have skin in the game, are keen allies. Britain is backing that play.

And what is the US play?
Next question - which US?




Two hours after Biden’s Nordic photo op, the Senate approved—with an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote of 86–11—a forty-billion-dollar aid package for Ukraine. The twin developments on Thursday reinforced the point that, in the not-quite three months since Russia attacked Ukraine, the war has already changed Washington in striking ways.

“the shock of February 24th”—the date that Putin launched this war against his neighbor, ... That date, it is now clear, represents one of those hinge-point moments that happens every decade or two—a transformative event not just for Ukraine and Europe but for Washington, too.

One of the most alarming changes since then has been the return of nuclear anxiety

Finland and Sweden’s swift decisions to join nato have created one of the most concrete and hard-to-reverse changes since February. The move has very specific military consequences for Russia, which will now face an additional eight-hundred-plus miles of border with nato, two additional militaries that are among the most heavily armed and capable in Europe, and the prospect of the alliance being able to “bottle up the Baltic Sea and keep the Russians from coming out,” as Eric Edelman, a former Pentagon under-secretary in the George W. Bush Administration, put it to me. “It’s huge from a geostrategic point of view,”


And in the background there is this

 

Skysix

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Do you have a a citation for Ireland contemplating joining NATO? I live in Dublin and the local news is notable silent on that and the government has said essentially, “no time soon”. The most the government committed to is modestly increased defence expenditure and possible greater cooperation with NATO.
Does not look at Ireland joining NATO but is a very good analysis of Sweden and Finland's joining effects
 
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Skysix

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With regards to the New York Times, France and Italy suggesting Ukraine should cede territory to Russia in return for peace (and gas/commerce to themselves):

1) WHAT, in the ENTIRE history of Russia makes you think they will stop pursuing their dream of a New Russian Empire?

2) So, how much land will YOU cede to Russia to achieve a temporary peace and a return to normal trade? I am sure Vlad would LOVE to have Russian ports on the Mediteranean and Adriatic. Not to mention the northeastern seaboard. Maybe New York can cede them Montoc ...

3) Stop priorising your bank balances over Ukranian lives. Be grateful they are willing to die for you, only requesting the means to evict an invading horde only slightly more advanced morally than the Mongols of old.

In short, STFU

(rant off)
 
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Haggis

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70% of Ukraines sowing program went ahead, the problem right now is the silos are full because the ports are blocked. They need to get that grain transported out soon, dried grain will last 16 months if properly stored, do we have time before it spoils.
Those silos are probably fairly high on Russia's targeting lists but are not being engaged until they can ensure their own food security, which will likely include those silos.
 

KevinB

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As long as President Biden and the USG remains committed to helping Ukraine, and the Ukraine is still willing to fight - who cares what some Europeans etc think.

Right now as long as the Arsenal of Democracy remains in play turning over equipment and sending $, who gives two shits about France etc.

Poland and England are still committed hard - and that’s pretty much all you need, one as stop over and the other the transit border.

Maybe those weak knees European weasels should think about the last time the was a major war in Europe…
Macron would be speaking German if America hadn’t moved across the sea…


But Germany today announced sending tanks and IFV’s - so it’s really just Macron trying to play nice to Putin.

Everyone wants Putin gone - so buck up and enjoy the ride.
 
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Maxman1

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Grain of salt and all but it isn’t inconceivable that saner elements in Russia are aware that this might be over.


inconceivable-wallace-shawn-princess-bride-800x500.jpg
 

Kirkhill

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With regards to the New York Times, France and Italy suggesting Ukraine should cede territory to Russia in return for peace (and gas/commerce to themselves):

2) So, how much land will YOU cede to Russia to achieve a temporary peace and a return to normal trade? I am sure Vlad would LOVE to have Russian ports on the Mediteranean and Adriatic. Not to mention the northeastern seaboard. Maybe New York can cede them Montoc ...

Paris? It worked the last time.
 

CBH99

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70% of Ukraines sowing program went ahead, the problem right now is the silos are full because the ports are blocked. They need to get that grain transported out soon, dried grain will last 16 months if properly stored, do we have time before it spoils.

Poland is rapidly constructing a rail line compatible with Ukraine trains from the Ukrainian border to the Baltic ports.
Poland is the next door neighbour that every country wishes they had. Talk about real solidarity, real support, and leadership capable of turns words into actions.
 

The Bread Guy

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Those silos are probably fairly high on Russia's targeting lists but are not being engaged until they can ensure their own food security, which will likely include those silos.
These guys seem to be sharing interesting graphics re: what's where and where it could go in that respect ...
 

FJAG

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But Germany today announced sending tanks and IFV’s - so it’s really just Macron trying to play nice to Putin.

I'd like to believe that's true but have seen nothing yet confirming it in any of the German papers (and they would be all over this)
 
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