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Ukraine - Superthread

The Bread Guy

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More on Cadieux from a pro-RUS amplifier web site (highlights mine) ...
Screenshot 2022-05-22 061039.jpg
The conclusion?
Screenshot 2022-05-22 062351.jpg
Riiiiiiiiiiiiight ... Funny how even now, they can't get the spelling of his name straight, even within the same article?

More via an archived link to the entire piece here, and more on the Southfront site here & here.
 
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Kirkhill

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Expansion of the Latvian Battle Group to the Latvian Brigade Group?

I understand we have committed a standby force to the task but

The Liberal government's recent activation of 3,400 soldiers, sailors and aircrew for duty with the NATO Response Force (NRF)

Once we take the sailors and aircrew away from that number, can we plump up our contribution by a factor of 3? Effectively 3 batteries of M777s, 6 LAV Companies and 2 more Battle Group HQs?

Or is that more than we can afford to give?

 

daftandbarmy

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Political office can be hazardous to your health...


A Russian-appointed mayor of a Ukrainian occupied town was injured in an explosion on Sunday.

Andrei Shevchuk was appointed mayor of Enerhodar following the Russian army’s occupation of the town, Reuters reported.

Shevchuk is in intensive care following the attack, according to a report from Russia’s RIA news agency, citing a source in the emergency services.

Dmytro Orlov, who Ukraine recognises as mayor of the town said in a post on the Telegram messaging app:

We have accurate confirmation that during the explosion the self-proclaimed head of the ‘people’s administration’ Shevchuk and his bodyguards were injured.

Enerhodar has a population of more than 50,000 and many of the residents work at the two power plants located next to the town, one of which is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest nuclear power station in Europe.

 

MilEME09

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Expansion of the Latvian Battle Group to the Latvian Brigade Group?

I understand we have committed a standby force to the task but



Once we take the sailors and aircrew away from that number, can we plump up our contribution by a factor of 3? Effectively 3 batteries of M777s, 6 LAV Companies and 2 more Battle Group HQs?

Or is that more than we can afford to give?

Oh look somewhere to promote a new staff officer....we have lots of those to contribute
 

tomydoom

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Even Ireland has been contemplating ending its neutrality and joining NATO. Doubt it would happened but if Ireland, Switzerland, Finland and Sweden all ended up in NATO; then Putin's blunder into Ukraine will be even worse for him
Do you have a a citation for Ireland contemplating joining NATO? I live in Dublin and the local news is notable silent on that and the government has said essentially, “no time soon”. The most the government committed to is modestly increased defence expenditure and possible greater cooperation with NATO.
 

Humphrey Bogart

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And the language is beginning to change 🤔
 

MilEME09

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And the language is beginning to change 🤔
Except Ukraine has said there will be no peace so long as Russian troops are in Ukrainian soil
 

Humphrey Bogart

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Except Ukraine has said there will be no peace so long as Russian troops are in Ukrainian soil
Their President has also said that Diplomacy is now the only way to end the conflict.

This is by far the most realistic proposal I've seen so far.
 

Humphrey Bogart

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Any DMZ would need a third party force to monitor, no one would trust Russia to honor a ceasefire, not after 2014, and two failed Minsk agreements that they ignored
Defacto Neutral = Demilitarized Ukraine aka Moldova 2.0

The fact it says Ukraine is part of the negotiation should let you know they are themselves involved.
 

MilEME09

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Humphrey Bogart

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@MilEME09 the fact they included sanctions relief was what really jumped out at me.

It means the Russians will have done all of this for essentially no geopolitical cost.

Something tells me the coming global food crisis is forcing Government's to rethink their strategy.
 

MilEME09

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Defacto Neutral = Demilitarized Ukraine aka Moldova 2.0

The fact it says Ukraine is part of the negotiation should let you know they are themselves involved.
After this year I high doubt Ukraine would demiliterize, in any way. Russia, with putin in charge will be a threat to its existence. I am highly skeptical of this peace plan, because it can allow Russia to stall, rebuild then restart combat because "negotiations broke down"
 

Kirkhill

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Western resolve set to be tested as key US and EU figures want Ukraine to cede territory to Russia and make peace​

The inevitable outcome may be a compromise preserving Ukrainian sovereignty and ceding territory to Russia, a New York Times editorial said

ByRoland Oliphant, SENIOR FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT22 May 2022 • 8:03pm
Self-propelled artillery vehicles firing towards Ukrainian army positions near the town of Yasynuvataya, outside Donetsk

Self-propelled artillery vehicles firing towards Ukrainian army positions near the town of Yasynuvataya, outside Donetsk CREDIT: Alexei Alexandrov/AP

It is the greatest triumph of an underdog since David slew Goliath: Ukraine's defeat of Russia at Kyiv and Kharkiv have revealed Russia as a paper tiger, the collapse of Mr Putin's army is inevitable and Ukraine can win the war if only the Western alliance holds its nerve.
Or is that nothing but a fantasy, out of touch with the cold realities of the balance of power, Russia's nuclear status and its battlefield successes on the southern front?
Isn't the inevitable outcome of the war a grotty compromise that preserves Ukrainian sovereignty, but cedes Russia some territory? And if so, shouldn't the West push Kyiv to accept that reality before more lives are lost?
That was the argument laid out in an editorial in the New York Times - sparking uproar in Kyiv amid growing fears about the resolve of elites in both the United States and Europe to see the conflict through.
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The piece, attributed to the paper’s Editorial Board, argued that Russia is too strong for Ukraine to defeat decisively on the battlefield; that the realistic outcome of the war will involve territorial concessions from Ukraine; and that President Joe Biden should make this clear to Volodymyr Zelensky sooner rather than later - including by placing clear limits on US support for Kyiv.

Ukrainian servicemen walk in the forest near a recently retaken village, north of Kharkiv, on May 15 CREDIT: Mstyslav Chernov/AP
Despite Ukraine’s stunning successes around Kyiv and Kharkiv, “a decisive military victory for Ukraine over Russia, in which Ukraine regains all the territory Russia has seized since 2014, is not a realistic goal,” the newspaper wrote.
Ultimately, it said: “It will be Ukrainian leaders who will have to make the painful territorial decisions that any compromise will demand.”
Officials in Kyiv reacted with unconcealed fury.
The arguments laid out in the editorial reflect a debate that raged in Washington foreign policy circles in the run up to war.
Then, most experts assumed Ukraine was certain to lose even with Western military assistance.
Forcing a diplomatic solution that saved lives would therefore be preferable to risking a US military confrontation with Russia - even if it meant pushing the Ukrainians to accept unpalatable concessions on the stalled Minsk peace agreements, some argued.

It was a view with traction in Washington.

Joe Biden now appears to have thrown his weight behind the previously unthinkable goal of a Ukrainian victory - pushing through vast financial assistance bills and green-lighting deliveries of increasingly powerful weaponry.
It is a goal backed by allies including Britain and Poland.

But the New York Times article shows elements of the American establishment are still not convinced. And they are not alone.
Earlier this month Mr Zelensky hinted, with some irritation, that Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, had asked him to give up land in exchange for peace.
Mario Draghi, the Italian prime minister, and Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany, have also recently talked of seeking a “ceasefire” - something that would leave Russian troops on Ukrainian territory and increase the chances of Mr Putin retaining captured land during peace talks.

Mr Zelensky has conceded that the war will eventually end with talks - but says he wants Russians out of Ukraine first and has ruled out territorial concessions.

Interestingly, it is not only Ukrainians appalled by the idea of compromise.
Placeholder image for youtube video: G73U0Vu5B3s

One Russian nationalist commentator on the war responding to the New York Times article warned that the suggested settlement would merely allow the West and Ukraine to rearm for another war later. There can be no stopping now, he urged: the war must continue.
That is exactly what Ukrainian officials fear Russia would use a ceasefire for. And many believe there is no reason to stop fighting when they have the upper hand.
The head of Ukrainian military intelligence has publicly asserted that the tide of the war will turn over the summer, and that Ukraine will retake its lost territories.
Perhaps the war will end in some kind of compromise. But there is much more fighting to be done before either side will accept one.
 

Humphrey Bogart

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After this year I high doubt Ukraine would demiliterize, in any way. Russia, with putin in charge will be a threat to its existence. I am highly skeptical of this peace plan, because it can allow Russia to stall, rebuild then restart combat because "negotiations broke down"
But.... you need to look at the bigger picture. Ukraine will remain demilitarized if the West stops delivering it weapons.

The unfortunate reality is the EU needs Russian gas, fertilizer and wheat. They are going to happily throw Ukraine under the bus for this.

Russia can live without iPhones and McDonalds, Europe can't function without natural resources, particularly food in their stomaches.
 

MilEME09

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But.... you need to look at the bigger picture. Ukraine will remain demilitarized if the West stops delivering it weapons.

The unfortunate reality is the EU needs Russian gas, fertilizer and wheat. They are going to happily throw Ukraine under the bus for this.

Russia can live without iPhones and McDonalds, Europe can't function without natural resources, particularly food in their stomaches.
Pre war, Ukraine supplied 40% of the world's grain exports, before 2014 Ukraine discovered large O&G deposits off Crimea.


Ukraine could supply Europe's needs if they were developed, Russian interference has stopped that, Russia needs Europe more then Europe needs Russia. Only difference is Russias actions in Ukraine have prevented any shift off of Russian sources. Russia is no fool, but they have likely miscalculated here
 

suffolkowner

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The plan seems unrealistic to me. How can there be any security guarantees that are worthwhile? Russia is going to accept less in Crimea and Donbass than what they had before Feb 24th?
 
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Give Ukraine the jet fighters from Poland, Slovakia, etc it asked for and this becomes a whole different story. Ukraine's ground game has seemingly stalled and the Russian artillery seems to have free reign in the Donbas.
 
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